IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.7	#210
Expected Predictive Rating	-4.9	#268

Pace	66.0	#278
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.6	#253

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.1	#170

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.7%	3.5%	1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.9	13.7	14.3

.500 or above	20.7%	30.0%	11.6%
.500 or above in Conference	27.8%	34.3%	21.3%
Conference Champion	2.2%	3.2%	1.2%
Last Place in Conference	22.9%	18.2%	27.5%

First Four	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
First Round	2.5%	3.4%	1.7%
Second Round	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Away) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	4 - 8	5 - 13
Quad 4	5 - 3	10 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2024	286	@ Air Force	L	67-73	53%	0 - 1			-9.6	-1.7	-8.5
Nov 13, 2024	223	Georgia St.	W	72-67	63%	1 - 1			-1.2	-7.2	+5.8
Nov 17, 2024	268	@ Coastal Carolina	L	66-67	50%
Nov 21, 2024	154	East Carolina	L	65-68	37%
Dec 08, 2024	198	@ South Alabama	L	67-70	38%
Dec 14, 2024	124	Utah Valley	L	65-68	41%
Dec 17, 2024	71	@ Missouri	L	62-76	11%
Dec 21, 2024	225	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	71-74	41%
Jan 04, 2025	176	@ Kennesaw St.	L	75-80	34%
Jan 09, 2025	118	@ Western Kentucky	L	71-80	22%
Jan 11, 2025	129	@ Middle Tennessee	L	62-70	25%
Jan 16, 2025	92	Louisiana Tech	L	65-70	32%
Jan 18, 2025	123	Sam Houston St.	L	71-74	41%
Jan 23, 2025	194	@ UTEP	L	67-71	37%
Jan 25, 2025	147	@ New Mexico St.	L	63-70	28%
Jan 30, 2025	267	Florida International	W	76-70	69%
Feb 01, 2025	104	Liberty	L	63-68	34%
Feb 06, 2025	129	Middle Tennessee	L	65-67	44%
Feb 08, 2025	118	Western Kentucky	L	74-77	41%
Feb 13, 2025	123	@ Sam Houston St.	L	68-77	23%
Feb 15, 2025	92	@ Louisiana Tech	L	62-73	17%
Feb 20, 2025	147	New Mexico St.	L	66-67	48%
Feb 22, 2025	194	UTEP	W	70-68	57%
Feb 27, 2025	104	@ Liberty	L	60-71	18%
Mar 01, 2025	267	@ Florida International	L	73-74	49%
Mar 08, 2025	176	Kennesaw St.	W	78-77	54%
Projected Record						10 - 16	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Conference USA Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0		2.2	1st
2nd											0.1	0.8	1.4	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0				3.8	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.4	2.3	1.2	0.3	0.0						5.3	3rd
4th									0.2	1.8	3.0	1.6	0.3	0.0							7.0	4th
5th								0.3	2.3	4.2	2.0	0.3	0.0								9.0	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.8	5.0	2.5	0.3										11.1	6th
7th					0.0	0.7	3.5	5.7	2.9	0.4	0.0										13.2	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.4	4.5	6.2	2.9	0.4	0.0											15.5	8th
9th		0.1	0.8	3.0	5.8	5.5	2.2	0.3	0.0												17.7	9th
10th	0.7	2.1	4.1	4.2	3.0	1.1	0.1														15.2	10th

Total	0.7	2.1	4.9	7.3	10.2	11.8	12.5	12.0	10.8	9.1	6.8	4.9	3.2	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	97.8%	0.2		0.1	0.0
15-3	87.5%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	60.1%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.0
13-5	32.9%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	9.6%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.2%	2.2		1.1	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																	0.0						0.0
17-1	0.0%																0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0
16-2	0.2%		37.0%	34.8%	2.2%	11.4								0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		3.3%
15-3	0.5%		22.8%	22.8%		12.2											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.4
14-4	1.0%		23.9%	23.9%		12.5											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.8
13-5	2.0%		15.6%	15.6%		13.0												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.7
12-6	3.2%		9.4%	9.4%		13.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		2.9
11-7	4.9%		7.9%	7.9%		13.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	4.5
10-8	6.8%		4.5%	4.5%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	6.5
9-9	9.1%		4.2%	4.2%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	8.7
8-10	10.8%		2.4%	2.4%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.5
7-11	12.0%		1.4%	1.4%		15.8																0.0	0.1	11.8
6-12	12.5%		0.7%	0.7%		15.8																0.0	0.1	12.4
5-13	11.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
4-14	10.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
3-15	7.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.3
2-16	4.9%																							4.9
1-17	2.1%																							2.1
0-18	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		2.7%	2.7%	0.0%	13.9								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.5	97.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%