Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#173
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#197
Pace63.8#313
Improvement+0.9#121

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#147
First Shot+2.0#125
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#262
Layup/Dunks+2.0#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#243
Freethrows+0.7#137
Improvement+0.5#141

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#212
First Shot-3.8#304
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#31
Layups/Dunks+2.6#92
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.7#361
Freethrows+1.4#89
Improvement+0.4#157
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 5.1% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.0 13.9
.500 or above 24.8% 47.8% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 34.7% 48.4% 33.3%
Conference Champion 2.9% 6.0% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 17.4% 10.7% 18.1%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round3.2% 5.0% 3.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 9.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 87 - 14
Quad 46 - 312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 267   @ Air Force L 67-73 58%     0 - 1 -8.7 -0.7 -8.7
  Nov 13, 2024 253   Georgia St. W 72-67 76%     1 - 1 -3.2 -7.8 +4.4
  Nov 17, 2024 274   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 58%     2 - 1 +15.0 +11.5 +7.2
  Nov 21, 2024 164   East Carolina W 86-78 49%     3 - 1 +7.5 +14.5 -6.8
  Nov 22, 2024 206   Toledo L 80-82 56%     3 - 2 -4.3 +6.9 -11.4
  Nov 23, 2024 112   James Madison L 65-71 33%     3 - 3 -2.4 +0.2 -3.2
  Dec 08, 2024 201   @ South Alabama L 74-76 42%     3 - 4 -0.8 +7.4 -8.4
  Dec 14, 2024 165   Utah Valley W 70-66 60%     4 - 4 +0.5 -0.9 +1.6
  Dec 17, 2024 51   @ Missouri L 66-80 9%    
  Dec 21, 2024 218   @ Eastern Kentucky L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 154   @ Kennesaw St. L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 09, 2025 106   @ Western Kentucky L 70-78 23%    
  Jan 11, 2025 130   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 16, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 128   Sam Houston St. W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 23, 2025 132   @ UTEP L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 199   @ New Mexico St. L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 30, 2025 242   Florida International W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 77   Liberty L 64-69 33%    
  Feb 06, 2025 130   Middle Tennessee W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 106   Western Kentucky L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 13, 2025 128   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 20, 2025 199   New Mexico St. W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 132   UTEP W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 61-72 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 242   @ Florida International W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 154   Kennesaw St. W 77-75 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.3 1.4 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.3 3.9 0.4 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.3 4.0 0.6 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 5.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.2 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.7 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.5 7.4 10.5 12.6 13.8 13.4 11.4 9.1 6.5 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 95.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 72.5% 0.7    0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 41.0% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 13.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 25.7% 25.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 17.4% 17.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 15.2% 15.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.2% 13.1% 13.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
12-6 3.9% 11.6% 11.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5
11-7 6.5% 7.7% 7.7% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.0
10-8 9.1% 6.1% 6.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.6
9-9 11.4% 4.3% 4.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 10.9
8-10 13.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 13.0
7-11 13.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.2 13.6
6-12 12.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.5
5-13 10.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.5
4-14 7.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.4
3-15 4.5% 4.5
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%