Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 Liberty 29.3%   12   12 - 4 3 - 3 20 - 8 11 - 7 +6.1      +1.3 140 +4.8 56 63.4 311 +6.7 83 +0.8 6
111 Middle Tennessee 14.5%   11 - 5 4 - 1 18 - 11 11 - 7 +3.1      +0.7 158 +2.4 103 70.0 138 +6.7 82 +8.3 3
120 Louisiana Tech 11.4%   10 - 6 2 - 4 17 - 11 9 - 9 +2.7      +2.2 118 +0.4 154 62.7 331 +3.2 116 -2.0 8
128 New Mexico St. 12.3%   8 - 7 4 - 1 15 - 13 11 - 7 +2.3      +0.1 175 +2.1 109 65.5 255 +2.2 130 +10.1 1
131 UTEP 10.4%   11 - 4 4 - 1 18 - 10 11 - 7 +1.9      +0.1 174 +1.7 123 69.9 144 +6.9 81 +8.8 2
135 Western Kentucky 9.0%   9 - 7 2 - 3 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.8      -2.2 229 +4.0 74 82.4 3 +2.7 122 -1.4 7
162 Jacksonville St. 5.5%   8 - 7 3 - 2 14 - 14 9 - 9 +0.2      +1.9 129 -1.7 231 62.8 324 +1.1 153 +4.2 4
170 Sam Houston St. 3.4%   5 - 11 1 - 5 10 - 18 6 - 12 -0.4      +1.7 133 -2.1 240 70.0 139 -2.0 206 -7.6 9
183 Kennesaw St. 3.7%   8 - 7 3 - 2 13 - 15 8 - 10 -1.0      -0.3 189 -0.7 200 77.9 16 +1.9 136 +3.2 5
241 Florida International 0.6%   5 - 12 1 - 5 8 - 21 4 - 14 -4.4      -4.9 307 +0.5 152 74.0 57 -7.5 287 -7.8 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Liberty 2.9 27.9 23.8 17.5 12.5 8.0 5.0 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1
Middle Tennessee 3.0 31.2 19.1 15.3 12.1 8.8 6.3 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.1
Louisiana Tech 5.3 4.8 8.3 11.6 13.6 14.9 14.7 13.5 10.5 6.5 1.6
New Mexico St. 3.1 29.0 19.7 15.8 12.3 9.2 6.4 4.1 2.6 0.9 0.1
UTEP 3.4 23.7 18.1 15.7 13.2 10.4 8.3 5.6 3.5 1.4 0.2
Western Kentucky 5.3 5.8 8.4 10.8 12.9 12.9 14.6 13.1 11.5 8.1 1.9
Jacksonville St. 5.1 7.5 9.6 11.7 12.6 13.6 14.8 13.0 10.3 5.6 1.3
Sam Houston St. 7.8 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.4 5.6 8.9 13.7 20.0 31.2 14.2
Kennesaw St. 5.9 3.9 5.9 7.7 9.6 12.7 14.4 16.5 17.0 9.5 2.9
Florida International 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 10.0 22.4 59.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Liberty 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 5.1 9.7 16.6 19.8 21.5 15.3 7.7 1.8
Middle Tennessee 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 6.1 11.0 16.0 18.3 17.1 13.9 8.2 4.1 1.2 0.2
Louisiana Tech 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 7.4 12.4 17.1 20.3 17.0 12.7 6.6 1.9 0.2
New Mexico St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.9 6.3 11.8 16.4 18.4 17.2 13.2 7.8 3.3 1.2 0.2
UTEP 11 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.2 8.6 13.5 17.5 18.1 16.0 10.6 6.4 2.7 0.6 0.1
Western Kentucky 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.4 8.4 12.1 16.6 19.3 15.8 11.5 6.6 2.7 0.8 0.1
Jacksonville St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.8 3.1 7.0 12.1 16.7 17.7 17.4 12.5 7.8 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0
Sam Houston St. 6 - 12 0.3 1.7 4.9 10.6 16.0 19.8 19.0 14.2 8.0 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.0
Kennesaw St. 8 - 10 0.4 2.1 5.5 11.7 17.0 18.4 17.3 12.9 8.3 4.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Florida International 4 - 14 3.2 10.9 19.4 22.1 20.1 13.2 6.9 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 27.9% 15.1 8.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 31.2% 18.9 8.6 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Louisiana Tech 4.8% 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 29.0% 17.7 7.6 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
UTEP 23.7% 13.1 7.2 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Western Kentucky 5.8% 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
Jacksonville St. 7.5% 3.4 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 3.9% 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Florida International 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 29.3% 29.2% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.3 17.8 7.0 0.7 0.0 70.7 0.2%
Middle Tennessee 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 4.5 6.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 85.5 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.1 2.2 5.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 88.6 0.0%
New Mexico St. 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0 5.0 2.5 1.3 0.3 87.8 0.0%
UTEP 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.1 2.9 4.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 89.6 0.0%
Western Kentucky 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 3.6 2.6 1.0 0.2 91.0 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.2 94.5 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 96.6 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.5 96.3 0.0%
Florida International 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 29.3% 0.1% 29.3% 5.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 14.5% 0.0% 14.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 11.4% 0.0% 11.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 12.3% 0.1% 12.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 10.4% 0.0% 10.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 9.0% 0.1% 9.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 5.5% 0.1% 5.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 3.4% 1.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 3.7% 0.2% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 99.3 0.1
2nd Round 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.6
Sweet Sixteen 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0