Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
80 Liberty 30.9%   12   3 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 7 13 - 5 +7.2      +1.5 129 +5.6 39 62.6 339 +10.4 47 0.0 1
87 Louisiana Tech 28.1%   2 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 12 - 6 +6.4      +3.6 81 +2.9 92 64.6 308 +15.6 18 0.0 1
117 Sam Houston St. 13.4%   2 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 +3.6      +3.0 97 +0.6 151 70.9 126 +5.9 91 0.0 1
122 Western Kentucky 10.7%   2 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +2.8      -1.1 199 +3.9 71 85.6 1 -0.9 198 0.0 1
161 Kennesaw St. 5.2%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -0.1      +2.9 102 -2.9 266 82.7 5 -0.6 195 0.0 1
163 New Mexico St. 4.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 10 -0.4      -0.3 182 -0.1 172 65.5 287 +5.5 101 0.0 1
164 Middle Tennessee 4.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 10 -0.4      -1.7 223 +1.3 133 69.1 183 +1.6 167 0.0 1
174 UTEP 4.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 10 -0.8      -1.8 225 +1.0 138 73.0 82 +4.9 113 0.0 1
183 Jacksonville St. 3.6%   2 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 15 7 - 11 -1.3      -1.7 222 +0.4 152 62.8 335 -1.2 204 0.0 1
275 Florida International 0.7%   0 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -5.8      -4.5 304 -1.3 213 78.2 24 -15.7 351 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Liberty 2.5 39.9 23.1 14.0 9.0 5.8 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2
Louisiana Tech 2.8 34.0 22.3 14.6 10.1 6.9 5.1 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.4
Sam Houston St. 4.0 15.5 16.7 16.7 14.2 11.5 9.3 6.7 4.9 3.1 1.4
Western Kentucky 4.3 12.1 14.7 15.3 14.6 12.5 10.7 8.0 6.2 4.0 2.0
Kennesaw St. 5.8 4.6 7.6 9.9 11.2 12.4 13.0 12.8 12.0 10.2 6.4
New Mexico St. 5.9 4.2 6.8 9.1 10.8 12.3 13.0 13.0 12.4 11.1 7.3
Middle Tennessee 5.9 4.1 6.6 9.2 10.7 12.1 13.1 13.2 12.7 11.0 7.3
UTEP 6.1 3.8 6.4 8.5 10.3 11.5 12.3 13.1 13.0 12.4 8.7
Jacksonville St. 6.4 3.0 5.0 7.3 9.3 11.1 12.8 13.5 14.1 13.9 10.0
Florida International 8.3 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.4 6.5 9.4 14.4 21.8 37.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Liberty 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.4 7.5 10.4 12.6 14.5 14.5 12.4 9.0 4.8 1.6
Louisiana Tech 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.6 11.2 12.5 13.3 13.0 10.9 7.6 4.0 1.3
Sam Houston St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.4 6.6 8.8 11.0 12.3 13.2 12.1 10.3 7.6 5.1 2.7 1.0 0.2
Western Kentucky 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.5 7.6 10.2 11.7 12.9 12.4 11.1 9.1 6.4 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.2
Kennesaw St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3 5.6 8.1 10.2 12.1 12.8 11.6 10.4 8.7 6.4 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.8 6.0 8.5 10.9 11.9 12.5 11.7 10.2 8.1 5.7 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.7 6.1 8.5 11.0 12.4 12.6 11.5 10.2 7.9 5.8 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
UTEP 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.4 6.9 9.1 11.2 11.9 12.0 11.2 9.6 7.6 5.2 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 2.7 5.1 7.8 10.2 12.0 12.6 12.5 10.9 8.6 6.5 4.5 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida International 5 - 13 2.6 7.1 11.4 14.2 14.6 13.8 11.9 9.1 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 39.9% 29.2 8.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
Louisiana Tech 34.0% 24.5 7.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 15.5% 9.7 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 12.1% 7.4 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 4.6% 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St. 4.2% 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 4.1% 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 3.8% 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 3.0% 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida International 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 30.9% 28.7% 2.3% 12   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.7 8.1 13.1 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 69.1 3.2%
Louisiana Tech 28.1% 25.4% 2.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.7 7.6 11.1 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 71.9 3.6%
Sam Houston St. 13.4% 13.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 5.8 2.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 86.6 0.5%
Western Kentucky 10.7% 10.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 4.2 3.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 89.3 0.2%
Kennesaw St. 5.2% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 94.8 0.0%
New Mexico St. 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 95.4 0.1%
Middle Tennessee 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 95.6 0.0%
UTEP 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 95.8 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 96.4 0.0%
Florida International 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 30.9% 1.3% 30.3% 9.4% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 28.1% 1.5% 27.4% 8.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 13.4% 0.5% 13.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 10.7% 0.3% 10.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.2% 0.4% 5.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 4.6% 0.2% 4.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 4.4% 0.3% 4.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 4.2% 0.1% 4.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.6% 0.3% 3.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 94.3 5.7 0.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 95.3 4.1 0.0
2nd Round 24.5% 0.2 75.5 24.1 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.9 0.0
Elite Eight 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7 0.0
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1