Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
94 Liberty 28.9%   13   4 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 6 +5.6      +4.7 71 +0.9 141 64.4 311 +2.2 141 0.0 1
126 Sam Houston St. 13.4%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 +2.3      +2.5 111 -0.2 168 73.0 97 +6.2 95 0.0 1
127 New Mexico St. 13.8%   4 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 8 +2.3      +1.0 141 +1.2 132 63.2 331 +2.4 137 0.0 1
128 Western Kentucky 12.7%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +2.1      +0.9 142 +1.2 135 77.8 28 +7.9 79 0.0 1
136 Middle Tennessee 12.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +1.7      +1.4 132 +0.4 156 70.0 170 +6.1 96 0.0 1
152 Kennesaw St. 6.9%   5 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 9 +0.1      +1.5 128 -1.4 209 81.6 9 +0.6 160 0.0 1
189 Florida International 3.9%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 11 -1.9      -1.4 204 -0.5 177 74.8 53 -1.1 190 0.0 1
193 Louisiana Tech 3.8%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 -2.1      -3.7 266 +1.6 120 62.5 344 -4.0 231 0.0 1
239 Jacksonville St. 1.6%   1 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 13 -4.4      -5.5 319 +1.1 136 63.1 332 -10.7 313 0.0 1
241 UTEP 1.7%   0 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 19 8 - 12 -4.5      -5.3 313 +0.8 144 64.7 304 -10.9 316 0.0 1
255 Missouri St. 1.1%   1 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -5.2      -3.0 250 -2.2 240 62.4 350 -10.0 307 0.0 1
296 Delaware 0.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 14 -7.5      -3.8 271 -3.7 290 66.8 260 -10.5 311 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 174 Florida Gulf Coast 83 189 Florida International 89   
Wed, Dec 3 232 Georgia Southern 77 193 Louisiana Tech 69   
Sat, Dec 6 215 Abilene Christian 77 127 New Mexico St. 69   
Sat, Dec 6 265 Evansville 79 128 Western Kentucky 80   
Sat, Dec 6 189 Florida International 88 291 Jacksonville 65   
Sat, Dec 6 255 Missouri St. 74 89 Tulsa 98   
Sat, Dec 6 126 Sam Houston St. 82 305 Texas Southern 70   
Sat, Dec 6 296 Delaware 72 351 Delaware St. 75   
Sat, Dec 6 338 Georgia St. 69 152 Kennesaw St. 92   
Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. 50 94 Liberty 92   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 90 Belmont 78 136 Middle Tennessee 76 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 113 Seattle 71 241 UTEP 60 85%   
Wed, Dec 10 94 Liberty 73 36 North Carolina St. 83 83%   
Wed, Dec 10 172 Marshall 80 128 Western Kentucky 81 51%   
Wed, Dec 10 296 Delaware 69 59 George Washington 89 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 2.6 41.9 20.7 13.1 8.5 5.8 4.0 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
Sam Houston St. 4.2 16.1 16.8 15.0 13.2 11.0 8.6 6.8 5.2 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.5
New Mexico St. 4.1 17.8 16.5 14.6 12.7 10.8 8.7 6.6 4.9 3.4 2.1 1.3 0.6
Western Kentucky 4.4 14.8 15.1 14.3 13.1 11.0 9.3 7.8 5.9 4.0 2.6 1.5 0.6
Middle Tennessee 4.4 15.5 15.9 14.0 12.7 10.8 8.8 7.4 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.7 0.7
Kennesaw St. 5.6 7.3 9.5 10.7 11.8 11.9 11.3 10.7 9.3 7.1 5.3 3.4 1.6
Florida International 6.9 3.2 5.0 6.9 8.0 9.8 10.9 12.2 11.9 10.7 9.4 7.6 4.4
Louisiana Tech 6.7 3.4 5.8 7.5 8.8 10.2 11.2 11.8 11.2 10.3 9.0 6.6 4.1
Jacksonville St. 8.4 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.3 6.1 7.7 9.5 11.4 13.3 14.5 14.5 12.2
UTEP 8.2 1.5 2.6 3.5 4.9 6.4 7.9 9.9 11.2 12.8 13.8 13.8 11.9
Missouri St. 8.7 0.8 1.7 2.8 3.9 5.4 7.0 8.8 11.0 13.0 14.7 16.4 14.5
Delaware 9.9 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.8 5.5 7.8 11.1 15.7 21.0 29.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.1 6.0 8.9 11.2 13.3 14.4 13.4 11.4 7.7 3.7 1.0
Sam Houston St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.1 11.5 13.1 12.9 12.1 9.6 6.8 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.1
New Mexico St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 5.0 6.8 9.2 11.3 12.6 12.6 11.9 9.7 7.4 4.5 2.2 0.9 0.2
Western Kentucky 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.7 7.8 10.0 11.4 12.9 12.6 11.1 9.0 6.1 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
Middle Tennessee 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.7 7.2 9.6 11.6 12.5 12.2 10.7 9.3 6.6 4.1 1.9 0.6 0.2
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.5 6.5 9.1 11.1 12.2 12.6 11.8 9.7 7.5 5.0 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Florida International 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.5 5.8 7.9 10.2 12.3 12.6 12.0 10.3 8.5 6.0 3.9 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.2 7.5 9.7 11.4 12.3 12.1 10.8 9.1 6.9 4.5 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 2.9 5.2 7.8 10.2 12.2 12.6 11.9 10.8 8.5 6.7 4.2 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.8 7.5 10.0 11.8 12.4 11.5 10.8 8.6 6.8 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 7 - 13 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.3 8.8 11.1 12.9 12.7 11.6 9.8 8.0 5.4 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 6 - 14 1.0 3.6 7.3 11.6 13.6 14.4 13.6 11.4 8.6 6.1 3.9 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 41.9% 31.0 8.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 16.1% 10.0 4.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St. 17.8% 11.2 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 14.8% 9.2 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Middle Tennessee 15.5% 9.5 4.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 7.3% 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida International 3.2% 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 3.4% 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
UTEP 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 28.9% 28.8% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.9 12.7 8.7 2.4 0.4 0.1 71.1 0.2%
Sam Houston St. 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.4 5.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 86.6 0.0%
New Mexico St. 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.4 2.6 0.6 0.2 86.2 0.0%
Western Kentucky 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.6 4.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 87.3 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.2 88.0 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.2 93.1 0.0%
Florida International 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.4 96.1 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.3 96.2 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 98.4 0.0%
UTEP 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 98.3 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 98.9 0.0%
Delaware 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 28.9% 0.1% 28.9% 5.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 13.4% 0.1% 13.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 13.8% 0.1% 13.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 12.7% 0.1% 12.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 12.0% 0.2% 11.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.9% 0.1% 6.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 3.9% 0.3% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 3.8% 0.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.1 0.1
2nd Round 12.4% 0.1 87.6 12.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0