Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
107 Sam Houston St. 27.6%   13   18 - 8 13 - 5 +3.9      +3.4 92 +0.5 154 73.6 52 +4.8 102 +3.8 2
115 Liberty 25.3%   21 - 5 16 - 2 +3.3      +5.3 67 -2.0 229 62.5 331 +8.5 70 +10.6 1
131 Western Kentucky 17.6%   16 - 11 11 - 7 +1.9      -0.4 171 +2.3 112 74.0 45 +1.7 133 +1.3 3
159 Kennesaw St. 9.2%   15 - 11 10 - 8 +0.1      +1.1 136 -1.0 208 76.5 20 +0.1 155 +0.2 4
163 Middle Tennessee 5.9%   12 - 14 9 - 9 -0.4      +0.1 159 -0.5 193 65.2 266 -0.5 165 -1.7 7
177 New Mexico St. 3.3%   10 - 15 6 - 12 -1.1      +0.8 141 -1.9 225 66.6 234 -3.1 220 -5.1 11
192 Jacksonville St. 3.7%   11 - 15 9 - 9 -2.1      -1.6 211 -0.4 191 63.3 321 -4.0 234 -1.2 5
200 Florida International 2.4%   11 - 15 7 - 11 -2.2      -1.5 205 -0.6 200 77.6 13 -3.0 217 -3.5 8
205 Missouri St. 2.4%   10 - 16 7 - 11 -2.4      -1.0 190 -1.4 214 64.6 283 -4.3 240 -3.9 9
221 Louisiana Tech 1.7%   13 - 13 9 - 9 -3.6      -5.7 314 +2.0 120 62.5 333 -2.3 200 -1.4 6
260 UTEP 0.5%   7 - 19 6 - 12 -5.6      -4.6 295 -1.1 209 63.8 304 -6.3 261 -4.9 10
275 Delaware 0.4%   9 - 19 5 - 13 -6.2      -2.2 234 -4.0 291 59.9 361 -6.8 272 -6.1 12


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Mar 5 192 Jacksonville St. 69 177 New Mexico St. 73 65%   
Thu, Mar 5 200 Florida International 77 163 Middle Tennessee 76 55%   
Thu, Mar 5 205 Missouri St. 73 131 Western Kentucky 74 55%   
Thu, Mar 5 115 Liberty 72 221 Louisiana Tech 63 82%   
Thu, Mar 5 159 Kennesaw St. 76 260 UTEP 73 61%   
Thu, Mar 5 275 Delaware 70 107 Sam Houston St. 77 75%   
Sat, Mar 7 115 Liberty 79 107 Sam Houston St. 77 59%   
Sat, Mar 7 159 Kennesaw St. 79 177 New Mexico St. 80 57%   
Sat, Mar 7 163 Middle Tennessee 70 205 Missouri St. 71 54%   
Sat, Mar 7 200 Florida International 80 131 Western Kentucky 81 54%   
Sat, Mar 7 192 Jacksonville St. 67 260 UTEP 66 52%   
Sat, Mar 7 275 Delaware 65 221 Louisiana Tech 64 51%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 1.0 100.0
Sam Houston St. 2.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 3.0 4.6 89.8 5.7
Kennesaw St. 3.8 27.9 62.4 8.0 1.6 0.1
Middle Tennessee 5.2 3.1 22.6 38.4 23.8 12.1
Jacksonville St. 5.3 2.7 20.4 38.3 25.7 13.0
Louisiana Tech 5.6 1.2 13.0 33.1 30.9 21.7
Florida International 8.1 1.9 8.1 10.7 44.7 25.1 8.2 1.4
Missouri St. 8.1 1.9 8.0 10.3 44.3 25.9 8.0 1.6
New Mexico St. 9.4 23.2 29.3 31.6 14.5 1.5
UTEP 9.9 13.1 20.6 29.1 33.5 3.8
Delaware 11.5 0.5 3.3 8.8 21.6 65.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 17 - 3 22 - 6 7.5 43.5 49.0
Sam Houston St. 14 - 6 19 - 9 15.1 54.4 30.6
Western Kentucky 12 - 8 17 - 12 21.0 47.5 31.5
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 16 - 12 23.8 49.6 26.6
Middle Tennessee 10 - 10 13 - 15 29.9 48.5 21.7
Jacksonville St. 10 - 10 12 - 16 31.4 49.0 19.6
Louisiana Tech 10 - 10 14 - 14 42.6 48.6 8.7
Florida International 8 - 12 12 - 16 25.7 48.9 25.3
Missouri St. 8 - 12 11 - 17 26.4 49.3 24.4
New Mexico St. 7 - 13 11 - 16 16.1 46.5 37.4
UTEP 7 - 13 8 - 20 32.2 47.9 19.8
Delaware 6 - 14 10 - 20 36.9 49.4 13.7

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 100.0% 100.0
Sam Houston St.
Western Kentucky
Kennesaw St.
Middle Tennessee
Jacksonville St.
Louisiana Tech
Florida International
Missouri St.
New Mexico St.
UTEP
Delaware


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Sam Houston St. 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 13   0.2 10.1 14.4 3.0 0.0 72.4 0.0%
Liberty 25.3% 25.3% 0.0% 0.8 12.7 11.1 0.7 74.7 0.0%
Western Kentucky 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 1.9 9.4 5.8 0.6 82.4 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.2 2.4 5.0 1.6 0.1 90.8 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.2 0.8 94.1 0.0%
New Mexico St. 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 1.3 2.0 96.7 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 2.5 96.3 0.0%
Florida International 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 1.4 97.6 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.3 2.1 97.6 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 98.3 0.0%
UTEP 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Delaware 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.6% 1.0 2.4 97.6
2nd Round 5.0% 0.0 95.0 5.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Sam Houston St. 27.6% 0.0% 27.6% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Liberty 25.3% 0.0% 25.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 17.6% 0.0% 17.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.9% 0.3% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 3.3% 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.7% 1.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.4% 1.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.4% 1.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 1.7% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%