Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.8 173
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 190
Pace 64.8 284
Improvement -4.7 343

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #192 C+ D+ C+ D- D+
Defense C #159 C+ B D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 314 60% 121 -2.5 266
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 145 39% 146 +0.9 125
Three Pointers 45% 109 36% 83 +3.4 71
1st FG Attempt 1.05 117 +1.9 115
Second Chance 29.5% 213 0.89 329 0.26 285
Turnovers 16.2% 132
Freethrows 0.26 314 65% 353 0.17 346
Total Offense -1.0 192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 77 57% 147 -1.8 243
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 153 34% 50 +0.6 139
Three Pointers 36% 316 34% 167 +2.6 77
1st FG Attempt 0.99 133 +1.3 133
Second Chance 26.0% 38 1.01 153 0.26 58
Turnovers 15.2% 289
Freethrows 0.31 212 75% 327 0.24 250
Total Defense +0.2 159

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.6 268 +0.2 208
Shot Type Accuracy +2.4 98 -1.5 118
Possession Length 18.0 253 17.8 269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 208 0.13 59
Improvement -2.5 #312 -2.1 #297

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 7% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 15% 27% 9%
.500 or above in Conference 35% 57% 24%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 4% 1% 5%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round5% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 46 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 273 @Evansville W 77 - 72 60% +8  90% 1 - 0 C+ +2 C +0 B- F B- C+ +1 C- B D
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1% -13  7% 1 - 1 C+ +4 D -6 C- C+ C- A +12 A+ B+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 112 Murray St. W 90 - 87 34% +3  76% 2 - 1 B- +6 B +6 C+ A- B C +0 C B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 84 George Washington L 79 - 92 24% -10  2% 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- A- D+ D- -8 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 88 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 26% +3  72% 2 - 3 C- -4 B- +4 B+ F A F+ -10 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 1 118 UAB W 76 - 61 47% +4  47% 3 - 3 A- +15 B- +5 C A B- A +10 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 7 78 Belmont L 62 - 83 31% -8  13% 3 - 4 F+ -17 F -14 F C- A+ C- -2 C+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 154 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 58% +7  95% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C- -2 F+ -8 D F F B+ +7 A C+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 5 @Houston L 60 - 69 2% -5  17% 4 - 5 A- +17 B+ +7 A+ D+ F B+ +8 A- A- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 223 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 70% +19  97% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +31 A+ +30 A+ F A+ A- +8 C+ A- A-
 Sun, Jan 4 121 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 48% +5  72% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C +1 D- -6 B- F B+ B+ +7 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 239 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 52% +5  79% 6 - 6 3 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 C+ D- B- D- -8 C+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 167 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 37% +0  51% 7 - 6 4 - 1 B- +7 F -12 D- F B- A+ +19 A A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 223 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 48% +10  91% 7 - 7 4 - 2 C -1 F -10 D- B- D- A- +9 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 179 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 63% +0  41% 8 - 7 5 - 2 C -1 B- +5 A+ A+ F D -7 C- C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 184 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 41% -9  2% 8 - 8 5 - 3 F+ -16 D- -6 D- D+ A- F -12 F A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 95 Liberty L 65 - 81 38% -12  4% 8 - 9 5 - 4 D- -14 D+ -3 D- A C F -13 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 160 Western Kentucky L 60 - 65 60% -1  41% 8 - 10 5 - 5 D -8 F -12 C- F+ C B- +3 D A+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 188 Florida International L 84 - 88 OT 66% -1  16% 8 - 11 5 - 6 D -9 D- -6 C+ F A C- -2 B- A F+
 Sat, Feb 7 279 @Delaware L 88 - 89 OT 62% -0  46% 8 - 12 5 - 7 D+ -5 A +13 B- A+ C F -18 F F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 154 @Kennesaw St. L 74 - 78 35%
 Sat, Feb 14 160 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 73 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 121 @Sam Houston St. L 72 - 78 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 279 Delaware W 71 - 62 80%
 Thu, Feb 26 239 UTEP W 71 - 64 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 167 New Mexico St. W 73 - 70 60%
 Thu, Mar 5 188 @Florida International L 75 - 77 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 179 @Missouri St. L 67 - 70 39%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 11 -1 C- -1 C+ D+ C+ C +0 C+ B D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C B- B- 33% 22% 45% D+ C+ C- D- D+ C+ D F+ D- C C+ B C C+ 43% 21% 36% C- C+ B+ C B D+ C- D C-
1.07 60% 39% 36% +2 -1 1.05 29% 0.9 .26 16% .26 65% .17 1.08 57% 34% 34% -1 0 0.99 26% 1.0 .26 15% .31 75% .20
Nov
12		 Evansville C A+ A+ F B+ 27% 31% 42% D- B- D F F B- C F D C+ C- F+ A+ C- 44% 31% 25% D+ C- B+ B- B D F C+ F
1.08 73% 65% 26% +8 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17 1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29
Nov
19		 Michigan D F+ F D+ C- 17% 31% 53% D+ C- C+ C C+ C- D+ B- C- A D- A A+ A+ 49% 13% 38% B- A+ A+ D- B+ B- D+ C D+
0.78 40% 22% 29% -12 -3 0.73 27% 0.9 .24 19% .19 75% .14 1.10 70% 29% 14% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.5 .46 17% .40 73% .29
Nov
23		 Murray St. B C- B B- C+ 54% 27% 19% B- C+ B+ B A- B C- F F+ C F+ B C+ C- 36% 25% 38% A- C A+ F B+ F F A D-
1.19 53% 44% 36% 0 0 1.02 40% 1.2 .47 13% .27 56% .15 1.15 70% 36% 33% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.4 .30 11% .43 69% .30
Nov
24		 George Washington C+ A- C- C B- 40% 24% 36% C- B- F A+ A- D+ A+ A A+ D- D A+ F F 51% 8% 42% D+ F A+ F+ A+ F F+ D- F
1.10 70% 33% 33% +3 0 1.08 19% 2.2 .41 20% .40 78% .31 1.28 67% 25% 50% +13 +3 1.34 15% 1.3 .19 13% .38 79% .30
Nov
25		 McNeese St. B- F A+ A+ A+ 19% 33% 49% F B+ B F F A F F F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B A+ F F F D- F F F
1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17 1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45
Dec
1		 UAB B- C F B C 42% 23% 36% C+ C B- A+ A B- D A C- A A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 18% 46% C- A+ D F F A B+ F B-
1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18 0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20
Dec
7		 Belmont F F B F F 14% 27% 59% F F D- B+ C- A+ C- C C- C- D- F+ C+ C+ 46% 19% 35% B C+ B+ C+ B F A A+ A+
0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19 1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08
Dec
17		 Kennesaw St. F+ C F+ C- D+ 29% 31% 40% F D B+ F F F A+ C A+ B+ B- A A+ A+ 56% 8% 35% F A F A C+ B- D+ F F
0.98 54% 29% 33% -4 -2 0.89 37% 0.4 .15 20% .58 75% .43 0.97 52% 25% 18% -13 +3 0.81 43% 0.7 .31 19% .39 82% .32
Dec
29		 Houston B+ A+ A A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A F D+ F F F F B+ F A+ A+ A 35% 33% 33% C- A- C A A- D+ D- F F
1.01 75% 43% 41% +11 0 1.24 39% 0.5 .21 32% .15 50% .07 1.16 88% 13% 27% -1 -2 0.96 39% 0.8 .31 10% .32 88% .28
Jan
2		 Louisiana Tech A+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 8% 79% D+ A+ C F F A+ F F F A- D+ D- A+ C+ 37% 24% 39% B- C+ A+ B- A- A- F D F
1.51 100% 25% 58% +33 0 1.67 32% 0.6 .19 12% .16 25% .04 0.87 57% 44% 20% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.8 .19 22% .42 68% .29
Jan
4		 Sam Houston St. D- F C- A+ B+ 26% 30% 44% F B- F+ F F B+ F A+ F B+ A- F F C 51% 27% 22% C C B C B- A+ B- B B
1.00 43% 38% 46% +4 -2 1.06 23% 0.2 .05 15% .17 90% .15 0.98 48% 46% 45% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 25% .23 67% .16
Jan
8		 UTEP B- A+ F B B- 26% 30% 44% F+ C+ F B D- B- F A+ D+ D- D A D C 28% 40% 32% A- C+ F F F F+ F C- F
1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25 1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40
Jan
10		 New Mexico St. F B+ F F F+ 38% 23% 38% C+ D- F D- F B- B+ F D+ A+ B- C+ A+ A+ 27% 23% 50% C- A A+ A A+ B- F A+ D
0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27 0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24
Jan
14		 Louisiana Tech F F F B- F+ 47% 16% 38% B- D- C+ B- B- D- C+ F F+ A- A- C A+ A+ 65% 15% 19% F A- A+ A- A+ F F+ F F
0.90 43% 14% 35% -10 +1 0.84 34% 1.2 .40 20% .35 50% .17 0.91 44% 38% 10% -16 +3 0.75 23% 0.7 .15 11% .36 76% .28
Jan
17		 Missouri St. B- D- B A+ A+ 36% 14% 50% A+ A+ C A+ A+ F B B+ B+ D A- A+ F C+ 49% 18% 33% F C- D B C D- D B C-
1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31 1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25
Jan
23		 Jacksonville St. D- F A D D- 40% 17% 43% C+ D- C- D- D+ A- D- F F F B A F F 60% 9% 32% F F B A+ A+ D- C F F+
0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15 1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31
Jan
29		 Liberty D+ F+ F C- D- 26% 24% 50% D D- B- A+ A C A F B F F+ F F F 52% 8% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ F A- C- B+
1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20 1.32 70% 75% 48% +18 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12
Jan
31		 Western Kentucky F B A F D+ 40% 20% 40% B C- C- F F+ C A+ F B- B- B- D+ D+ D- 35% 19% 46% C D A+ A+ A+ D A+ F+ A
0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29 0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14
Feb
4		 Florida International D- A- A C- C+ 21% 7% 71% C C+ F F F A A+ D+ A+ C- B C+ F+ C+ 48% 34% 18% A B- A B+ A F+ F D+ F
1.02 67% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 22% 0.3 .07 15% .47 70% .33 1.07 52% 37% 40% -2 -1 0.96 25% 0.9 .23 13% .52 70% .37
Feb
7		 Delaware A A+ A+ D B+ 11% 30% 59% F B- A+ A+ A+ C B F C F D+ B F F 35% 7% 59% F F C- F F+ C- F F F
1.28 83% 63% 31% +8 -3 1.11 42% 1.3 .53 15% .32 68% .22 1.30 63% 33% 52% +17 +2 1.39 22% 1.2 .26 18% .37 90% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 1.8 0.1 5.7 3rd
4th 0.1 3.6 4.3 0.4 8.3 4th
5th 1.6 8.9 2.3 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.3 7.2 6.5 0.3 14.3 6th
7th 3.1 12.0 1.3 0.0 16.5 7th
8th 0.6 9.2 5.0 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 0.1 3.0 7.8 0.3 11.2 9th
10th 0.8 5.4 1.8 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.2 2.3 2.6 0.1 5.2 11th
12th 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.2 12th
Total 0.4 4.0 11.7 22.3 26.1 20.8 10.7 3.5 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.5% 11.5% 11.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 3.5% 15.7% 15.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.9
11-9 10.7% 11.3% 11.3% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 9.5
10-10 20.8% 6.7% 6.7% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.0 19.4
9-11 26.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.4 0.6 0.5 25.0
8-12 22.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7 21.6
7-13 11.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 11.5
6-14 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.9
5-15 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.8 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%