Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
98 Liberty 26.2%   13   3 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 10 14 - 6 +5.0      +4.4 75 +0.6 148 64.4 311 +1.9 150 0.0 1
116 New Mexico St. 17.4%   4 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 9 13 - 7 +3.3      +0.8 143 +2.4 96 63.2 328 +5.8 100 0.0 1
123 Western Kentucky 15.3%   4 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 7 +2.9      +1.0 140 +2.0 115 77.8 29 +7.3 81 0.0 1
133 Sam Houston St. 11.8%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +1.8      +3.2 93 -1.4 213 70.8 151 +5.5 104 0.0 1
138 Middle Tennessee 11.2%   3 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 +1.6      +1.4 129 +0.2 165 70.0 172 +6.0 98 0.0 1
162 Kennesaw St. 6.1%   4 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 -0.4      +1.6 123 -2.0 234 78.9 15 +0.2 169 0.0 1
188 Louisiana Tech 3.9%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 -2.0      -3.6 264 +1.6 122 62.5 345 -3.9 229 0.0 1
207 Florida International 2.8%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 12 -3.0      -2.4 232 -0.5 183 74.9 55 -2.3 204 0.0 1
238 Jacksonville St. 1.8%   1 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 13 -4.5      -5.4 318 +0.9 139 63.1 330 -11.0 317 0.0 1
241 UTEP 1.5%   0 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 18 8 - 12 -4.5      -5.2 313 +0.7 146 64.6 307 -10.9 316 0.0 1
242 Missouri St. 1.7%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -4.5      -3.5 259 -1.0 201 61.3 354 -10.0 309 0.0 1
287 Delaware 0.4%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -6.9      -3.0 248 -3.8 303 66.6 262 -8.0 284 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 47 Oklahoma St. 93 133 Sam Houston St. 83   
Tue, Dec 2 116 New Mexico St. 75 165 South Alabama 77   
Tue, Dec 2 312 Jackson St. 73 162 Kennesaw St. 88   
Wed, Dec 3 226 Georgia Southern 77 188 Louisiana Tech 69   
Wed, Dec 3 177 Florida Gulf Coast 83 207 Florida International 89   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 207 Florida International 75 275 Jacksonville 69 73%   
Sat, Dec 6 234 Abilene Christian 62 116 New Mexico St. 66 68%   
Sat, Dec 6 242 Missouri St. 61 91 Tulsa 74 89%   
Sat, Dec 6 279 Evansville 67 123 Western Kentucky 80 87%   
Sat, Dec 6 133 Sam Houston St. 81 296 Texas Southern 75 73%   
Sat, Dec 6 334 Georgia St. 72 162 Kennesaw St. 86 89%   
Sat, Dec 6 287 Delaware 71 355 Delaware St. 67 64%   
Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. 59 98 Liberty 84 98%   
Sun, Dec 7 88 Belmont 78 138 Middle Tennessee 77 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 114 Seattle 71 241 UTEP 60 85%   
Wed, Dec 10 98 Liberty 73 35 North Carolina St. 84 85%   
Wed, Dec 10 170 Marshall 80 123 Western Kentucky 81 54%   
Wed, Dec 10 287 Delaware 69 62 George Washington 88 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 2.8 36.1 20.5 14.0 10.3 6.7 4.8 3.0 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
New Mexico St. 3.6 23.3 18.8 15.3 12.0 9.6 7.0 5.3 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.4
Western Kentucky 4.0 19.3 16.8 14.8 12.9 10.7 8.3 6.1 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.4
Sam Houston St. 4.4 14.4 15.1 14.0 13.2 11.6 9.6 7.4 5.7 4.2 2.5 1.6 0.7
Middle Tennessee 4.4 14.5 15.5 13.7 13.2 11.6 8.9 7.3 5.9 4.4 2.7 1.8 0.7
Kennesaw St. 6.0 5.9 7.9 9.6 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.1 10.3 8.3 6.4 4.4 2.4
Louisiana Tech 6.6 3.7 6.0 7.5 9.5 10.8 10.9 11.5 10.8 9.9 8.4 7.0 4.1
Florida International 7.5 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.8 8.6 9.9 11.3 11.5 12.5 11.3 10.7 7.2
Jacksonville St. 8.3 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.7 6.3 7.6 9.6 11.2 12.9 13.9 13.9 13.2
UTEP 8.2 1.3 2.6 3.5 5.0 6.6 7.8 10.1 11.4 12.9 13.4 13.3 12.2
Missouri St. 8.3 1.1 2.5 3.7 4.9 6.3 8.0 9.5 11.3 12.9 13.5 13.8 12.5
Delaware 9.6 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.0 4.3 6.3 8.5 12.0 15.0 20.2 26.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.7 5.1 7.3 9.6 11.8 13.3 13.4 12.3 10.1 6.6 3.2 0.9
New Mexico St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.2 7.5 9.8 11.6 12.6 13.0 11.6 9.1 6.5 3.5 1.4 0.3
Western Kentucky 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.5 8.9 10.8 12.1 12.6 12.0 10.4 8.1 4.8 2.7 1.0 0.2
Sam Houston St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.5 8.0 10.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 11.6 8.5 6.3 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1
Middle Tennessee 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.6 8.1 9.8 11.6 12.3 11.9 11.0 9.0 6.2 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1
Kennesaw St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.6 7.8 10.5 11.2 12.6 11.7 10.7 8.6 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.1 4.7 7.6 9.7 11.0 12.1 12.2 10.8 9.1 6.9 4.8 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida International 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.2 5.3 7.4 10.2 11.6 12.4 11.6 10.8 9.1 6.5 4.4 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Jacksonville St. 7 - 13 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.2 7.5 10.6 12.2 12.6 11.5 10.4 8.2 6.7 4.4 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
UTEP 8 - 12 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.9 7.3 9.8 11.4 12.8 11.8 10.6 8.9 6.8 4.9 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.9 8.1 9.7 12.0 11.9 12.4 10.1 8.5 6.6 4.9 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 6 - 14 0.7 3.3 6.4 9.9 13.1 13.7 13.6 11.6 9.8 6.7 4.7 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 36.1% 26.3 7.7 1.8 0.3 0.0
New Mexico St. 23.3% 15.7 5.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
Western Kentucky 19.3% 12.7 5.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Sam Houston St. 14.4% 8.7 4.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
Middle Tennessee 14.5% 9.0 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Kennesaw St. 5.9% 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 3.7% 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida International 2.1% 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 1.3% 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
UTEP 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 26.2% 26.1% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.6 10.6 8.0 2.8 0.5 0.1 73.8 0.1%
New Mexico St. 17.4% 17.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7 6.4 6.1 2.3 0.5 0.1 82.6 0.1%
Western Kentucky 15.3% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 6.0 5.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 84.7 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 88.2 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.3 2.1 0.6 0.2 88.8 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 93.9 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 96.1 0.0%
Florida International 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 97.2 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 98.2 0.0%
UTEP 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 98.5 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 98.3 0.0%
Delaware 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 26.2% 0.1% 26.2% 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 17.4% 0.1% 17.4% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 15.3% 0.1% 15.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 11.8% 0.0% 11.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.2% 0.2% 11.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.1% 0.1% 6.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 3.9% 0.2% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.8% 0.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 1.5% 0.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.7% 0.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.8 99.1 0.1
2nd Round 12.4% 0.1 87.6 12.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0