Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
102 Liberty 28.2%   13   5 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 6 +4.9      +3.6 93 +1.4 126 63.8 321 +5.8 95 0.0 3
122 Sam Houston St. 15.1%   5 - 4 0 - 1 17 - 11 12 - 8 +2.4      +2.4 113 +0.1 156 76.2 37 +5.4 97 -10.0 11
127 New Mexico St. 14.7%   5 - 3 1 - 0 17 - 10 13 - 7 +2.2      +0.9 138 +1.3 130 64.8 305 +2.6 134 +14.6 1
145 Western Kentucky 10.1%   5 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +1.1      +0.4 151 +0.7 142 77.8 24 +2.4 136 0.0 3
152 Kennesaw St. 8.4%   5 - 4 0 - 1 16 - 12 11 - 9 +0.5      +0.7 146 -0.2 171 79.8 9 -1.3 183 -12.0 12
158 Middle Tennessee 8.7%   4 - 4 1 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 9 +0.2      -0.6 178 +0.8 138 68.4 219 +4.9 100 +12.7 2
182 Florida International 4.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 11 -1.6      -0.9 188 -0.7 188 77.1 30 -0.2 165 0.0 3
187 Louisiana Tech 4.4%   4 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 10 -1.8      -4.7 297 +2.9 89 61.5 353 -4.4 236 0.0 3
202 UTEP 3.0%   1 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 18 9 - 11 -2.7      -3.3 262 +0.6 143 64.7 308 -9.6 313 0.0 3
236 Jacksonville St. 1.4%   2 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -4.5      -3.9 275 -0.6 187 63.1 333 -10.2 319 0.0 3
254 Missouri St. 1.1%   3 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 13 -5.2      -4.1 279 -1.2 206 61.3 356 -5.2 247 0.0 3
284 Delaware 0.5%   4 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -6.6      -4.0 278 -2.6 258 64.5 311 -7.0 272 0.0 3




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 68 Dayton 61 102 Liberty 64   
Sat, Dec 20 182 Florida International 86 206 LIU Brooklyn 79   
Sat, Dec 20 141 East Tennessee St. 75 236 Jacksonville St. 81   
Sun, Dec 21 127 New Mexico St. 87 122 Sam Houston St. 78   
Sun, Dec 21 243 Norfolk St. 72 202 UTEP 71   
Sun, Dec 21 15 Alabama 92 152 Kennesaw St. 81   
Mon, Dec 22 155 North Dakota St. 66 202 UTEP 76   
Tue, Dec 23 229 Lindenwood 65 254 Missouri St. 70   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 28 182 Florida International 74 102 Liberty 77 63%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 2.7 41.7 19.8 13.0 8.6 5.9 4.0 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1
Sam Houston St. 4.1 15.7 17.3 15.5 12.9 10.9 8.7 6.6 4.9 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.5
New Mexico St. 3.6 23.0 19.1 15.3 11.8 9.3 6.9 5.4 4.0 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3
Western Kentucky 4.9 12.2 13.2 12.3 12.2 11.2 10.0 8.6 7.2 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.1
Kennesaw St. 5.6 7.1 9.5 11.3 11.7 12.0 11.3 10.5 8.7 7.0 5.4 3.6 1.8
Middle Tennessee 4.9 11.6 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.4 10.2 8.9 7.1 5.4 3.9 2.5 1.2
Florida International 6.7 4.2 6.0 7.5 8.5 9.9 10.4 11.2 11.0 10.5 9.4 7.3 4.3
Louisiana Tech 6.5 4.6 6.5 8.0 9.1 9.9 10.7 11.1 10.6 9.9 8.7 6.4 4.3
UTEP 7.2 2.9 4.6 6.1 7.4 8.9 10.1 11.1 10.8 11.6 10.7 9.1 6.7
Jacksonville St. 8.6 1.0 2.1 2.9 4.0 5.4 7.0 8.6 10.7 12.9 15.0 15.9 14.4
Missouri St. 8.9 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.8 6.3 8.2 10.4 13.0 15.0 17.4 17.0
Delaware 9.8 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.8 8.2 11.3 15.6 20.3 28.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.6 7.0 10.0 12.0 14.2 14.4 12.7 9.5 6.2 2.7 0.7
Sam Houston St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.7 7.5 9.8 12.9 13.7 14.1 12.1 9.3 6.0 2.9 1.1 0.2
New Mexico St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.0 8.5 10.4 12.9 13.9 12.9 11.2 8.2 5.0 2.6 0.9 0.2
Western Kentucky 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.1 7.0 9.7 11.6 12.8 12.7 11.4 9.7 6.6 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.3 6.5 9.2 11.7 12.9 13.7 12.3 10.1 7.2 4.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1
Middle Tennessee 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.0 4.8 7.4 9.7 11.9 12.9 12.9 11.6 9.3 6.6 4.1 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
Florida International 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.1 7.6 9.9 12.2 12.4 12.5 11.0 8.9 6.6 4.2 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.6 4.6 7.0 9.5 11.6 12.6 12.4 11.4 9.3 7.1 4.8 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
UTEP 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.2 6.2 8.9 11.6 12.0 12.8 11.8 10.2 7.4 5.2 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 7 - 13 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.2 8.1 11.0 12.7 13.6 12.3 10.9 8.2 5.9 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 3.2 6.0 9.5 11.8 13.1 13.2 12.8 10.0 7.3 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Delaware 6 - 14 0.6 2.5 5.5 9.3 12.9 14.6 14.3 13.0 9.9 7.1 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 41.7% 30.7 8.6 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 15.7% 9.1 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 23.0% 15.0 5.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Western Kentucky 12.2% 7.4 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 7.1% 3.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 11.6% 6.9 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida International 4.2% 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 4.6% 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 2.9% 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Delaware 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 28.2% 28.1% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.3 13.0 9.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 71.8 0.1%
Sam Houston St. 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.4 6.6 2.8 0.6 0.1 84.9 0.0%
New Mexico St. 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 85.3 0.0%
Western Kentucky 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.5 2.6 0.7 0.2 89.9 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.1 2.8 1.1 0.3 91.6 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.6 3.6 2.2 0.9 0.3 91.4 0.0%
Florida International 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.4 95.4 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.4 95.6 0.0%
UTEP 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.1 97.0 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 98.6 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 98.9 0.0%
Delaware 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 28.2% 0.1% 28.1% 4.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 15.1% 0.1% 15.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 14.7% 0.0% 14.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 10.1% 0.1% 10.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.4% 0.1% 8.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.7% 0.1% 8.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 4.6% 0.2% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 4.4% 0.2% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 3.0% 0.7% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.4% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 99.0 0.1
2nd Round 9.4% 0.1 90.6 9.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0