Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
95 Liberty 36.7%   13   18 - 3 13 - 0 +5.3      +5.8 61 -0.4 183 62.8 328 +10.9 55 +16.4 1
121 Sam Houston St. 20.2%   13 - 8 8 - 5 +2.7      +1.9 120 +0.8 145 74.7 38 +3.4 107 +1.7 2
154 Kennesaw St. 8.1%   11 - 9 6 - 6 +0.1      +0.3 153 -0.2 174 77.3 17 -0.4 169 -0.5 5
160 Western Kentucky 6.0%   11 - 11 6 - 7 -0.3      -2.1 223 +1.8 118 73.1 65 -0.2 164 -1.4 7
167 New Mexico St. 4.4%   8 - 13 4 - 10 -0.5      +1.0 138 -1.5 224 65.8 256 -3.6 227 -6.5 11
173 Middle Tennessee 5.3%   8 - 12 5 - 7 -0.8      -1.0 192 +0.2 159 64.8 284 -1.6 190 -3.6 9
179 Missouri St. 6.8%   10 - 10 7 - 5 -1.1      -0.6 172 -0.6 193 63.7 314 -0.9 177 +1.4 4
184 Jacksonville St. 5.9%   10 - 11 8 - 5 -1.5      -2.3 228 +0.8 146 63.1 325 -2.7 211 +1.5 3
188 Florida International 3.2%   8 - 12 4 - 8 -1.9      -1.0 194 -0.9 203 77.8 14 -3.1 215 -3.9 10
223 Louisiana Tech 2.1%   10 - 10 6 - 6 -3.3      -4.4 289 +1.1 134 61.5 347 -2.4 208 -1.1 6
239 UTEP 1.2%   7 - 15 6 - 8 -4.4      -3.9 275 -0.5 185 64.1 301 -5.3 248 -3.4 8
279 Delaware 0.3%   7 - 15 3 - 9 -6.8      -3.6 266 -3.2 277 60.6 355 -7.5 290 -7.3 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 11 95 Liberty 77 167 New Mexico St. 75   
Wed, Feb 11 184 Jacksonville St. 64 239 UTEP 69   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 154 Kennesaw St. 78 173 Middle Tennessee 74 65%   
Thu, Feb 12 223 Louisiana Tech 63 179 Missouri St. 68 69%   
Thu, Feb 12 279 Delaware 69 188 Florida International 77 77%   
Sat, Feb 14 173 Middle Tennessee 70 160 Western Kentucky 73 63%   
Sat, Feb 14 154 Kennesaw St. 84 121 Sam Houston St. 83 52%   
Sat, Feb 14 184 Jacksonville St. 70 167 New Mexico St. 68 58%   
Sat, Feb 14 188 Florida International 74 223 Louisiana Tech 69 66%   
Sat, Feb 14 95 Liberty 73 239 UTEP 66 74%   
Sat, Feb 14 279 Delaware 63 179 Missouri St. 71 79%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 1.0 99.9 0.1
Sam Houston St. 2.6 0.4 63.1 20.1 9.3 4.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 4.7 0.0 13.6 18.8 19.0 18.3 12.3 8.2 5.0 2.9 1.2 0.6 0.1
Western Kentucky 5.8 3.0 10.5 14.3 19.2 18.7 14.4 9.2 5.8 3.3 1.5 0.2
New Mexico St. 9.4 0.1 0.9 2.2 4.4 7.9 12.3 17.5 21.7 27.7 5.4
Middle Tennessee 6.9 2.1 5.7 8.3 12.8 14.3 16.5 14.8 11.2 7.9 5.2 1.2
Missouri St. 3.7 0.0 28.8 26.7 17.3 11.4 7.4 4.8 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.0
Jacksonville St. 3.8 0.1 23.1 27.0 22.6 14.1 7.3 3.7 1.4 0.5 0.1
Florida International 8.3 0.4 1.7 3.5 6.4 9.4 13.5 14.6 17.4 17.5 12.3 3.4
Louisiana Tech 6.5 3.1 7.8 10.2 12.9 15.0 17.3 14.8 10.3 5.8 2.4 0.4
UTEP 8.3 0.1 1.0 2.7 4.9 8.9 13.7 17.2 21.4 18.5 10.8 1.0
Delaware 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.9 7.2 16.4 69.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 18 - 2 23 - 5 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.9 19.0 30.0 28.3 13.5
Sam Houston St. 12 - 8 17 - 11 0.1 1.0 5.3 15.1 27.2 28.7 17.9 4.7
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 16 - 12 0.2 1.9 6.5 15.6 24.9 25.4 17.0 7.0 1.4
Western Kentucky 10 - 10 15 - 14 0.6 4.2 13.5 24.6 28.9 19.4 7.8 0.9
New Mexico St. 7 - 13 11 - 16 1.3 7.9 20.5 29.6 25.7 12.3 2.8
Middle Tennessee 9 - 11 12 - 16 0.4 4.0 11.7 22.3 26.1 20.8 10.7 3.5 0.5
Missouri St. 11 - 9 14 - 14 0.3 2.1 8.1 17.7 24.8 23.2 16.2 6.6 1.0
Jacksonville St. 11 - 9 13 - 15 1.4 8.2 20.0 27.7 24.5 13.2 4.4 0.6
Florida International 8 - 12 12 - 16 0.6 3.7 11.3 22.2 26.5 21.3 10.8 3.3 0.4
Louisiana Tech 9 - 11 13 - 15 2.1 9.0 21.2 26.3 22.2 12.5 5.3 1.2 0.1
UTEP 8 - 12 9 - 19 9.6 26.3 31.1 22.0 8.9 1.9 0.2
Delaware 5 - 15 9 - 21 9.9 24.1 28.8 21.6 11.0 3.6 0.9 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 99.9% 99.5 0.4 0.0
Sam Houston St. 0.4% 0.0 0.3
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0
Western Kentucky
New Mexico St.
Middle Tennessee
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Florida International
Louisiana Tech
UTEP
Delaware


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 36.7% 36.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 5.8 22.5 7.9 0.5 0.0 63.4 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.2 5.2 10.1 4.4 0.3 0.0 79.8 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.3 1.9 3.7 1.8 0.3 91.9 0.0%
Western Kentucky 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.3 0.2 94.0 0.0%
New Mexico St. 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.2 95.7 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.5 94.7 0.0%
Missouri St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.7 0.6 93.2 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 1.2 94.1 0.0%
Florida International 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 96.8 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 97.9 0.0%
UTEP 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Delaware 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.1% 1.0 1.9 98.1
2nd Round 6.3% 0.1 93.8 6.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 36.7% 0.0% 36.6% 4.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 20.2% 0.0% 20.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.1% 0.0% 8.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 6.0% 0.1% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 4.4% 1.4% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.3% 0.8% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 6.8% 0.2% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 5.9% 0.4% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 3.2% 0.8% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 2.1% 0.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%