Preseason Rankings
Conference USA
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
97 Liberty 24.9%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 9 14 - 6 +5.2      +2.1 109 +3.1 91 64.4 285 0.0 1 0.0 1
138 New Mexico St. 10.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 9 +1.4      -0.7 186 +2.1 109 63.2 310 0.0 1 0.0 1
142 Kennesaw St. 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 +0.8      +1.5 124 -0.6 184 74.2 47 0.0 1 0.0 1
143 Louisiana Tech 9.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 +0.8      -0.8 191 +1.7 119 62.5 325 0.0 1 0.0 1
147 Middle Tennessee 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 +0.4      -0.3 169 +0.7 141 70.0 121 0.0 1 0.0 1
153 Jacksonville St. 8.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 +0.2      -1.1 203 +1.3 126 63.1 312 0.0 1 0.0 1
156 Western Kentucky 7.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 10 -0.1      0.0 162 -0.1 166 77.8 11 0.0 1 0.0 1
157 UTEP 7.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 10 -0.1      -1.6 219 +1.4 122 70.4 112 0.0 1 0.0 1
162 Missouri St. 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 -0.5      -1.6 221 +1.1 132 61.3 344 0.0 1 0.0 1
194 Sam Houston St. 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 11 -2.1      -0.8 188 -1.3 209 68.7 158 0.0 1 0.0 1
210 Florida International 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 12 -3.0      -2.4 242 -0.6 185 70.5 111 0.0 1 0.0 1
242 Delaware 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 13 -4.5      -0.7 184 -3.8 297 74.7 35 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 3.3 34.5 18.0 12.3 9.1 7.2 5.1 4.3 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.7
New Mexico St. 5.2 13.1 12.7 11.2 10.4 9.7 8.9 8.0 7.2 6.1 5.4 4.3 3.1
Kennesaw St. 5.6 10.9 10.7 10.3 10.0 9.5 9.3 8.5 7.8 7.5 6.5 5.2 3.7
Louisiana Tech 5.5 11.3 11.5 10.7 10.1 9.3 9.1 8.2 8.0 7.1 6.0 5.0 3.8
Middle Tennessee 5.7 10.3 10.8 10.4 9.8 9.5 9.2 8.2 7.7 7.4 6.6 5.7 4.4
Jacksonville St. 5.9 9.1 9.6 10.0 9.5 9.6 9.7 8.5 8.2 7.7 7.1 6.1 4.9
Western Kentucky 6.2 8.0 8.8 9.2 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.2 8.6 8.5 7.9 6.9 5.4
UTEP 6.1 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.2 8.9 8.5 8.1 7.4 6.9 5.5
Missouri St. 6.3 7.3 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.5 7.9 7.2 5.7
Sam Houston St. 7.3 4.2 5.7 6.2 7.4 8.1 8.7 9.4 9.5 10.1 10.4 10.5 9.7
Florida International 7.9 2.9 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.7 7.2 8.6 9.6 11.0 11.8 13.4 13.7
Delaware 8.7 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.2 5.3 6.1 7.7 8.8 10.7 13.1 15.8 20.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.5 5.9 7.7 8.8 10.2 11.3 11.4 10.4 9.1 6.8 4.1 1.5
New Mexico St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.0 4.4 6.0 7.1 9.1 9.7 10.0 10.1 9.5 8.5 6.9 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.9 5.3 6.9 8.4 9.3 10.1 10.1 9.7 8.7 7.5 5.6 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.2
Louisiana Tech 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.6 5.3 6.5 8.1 9.4 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.2 7.9 6.2 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1
Middle Tennessee 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.6 4.1 5.6 7.0 8.1 9.1 9.8 10.1 9.4 8.7 7.6 5.7 4.3 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.1
Jacksonville St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.4 8.4 9.4 10.2 10.3 9.4 8.3 7.0 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1
Western Kentucky 10 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.6 4.9 6.5 8.3 9.0 9.9 10.2 9.7 8.8 7.8 6.3 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
UTEP 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.3 4.9 6.2 7.8 9.2 9.4 10.1 9.9 9.1 7.8 6.2 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Missouri St. 10 - 10 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.0 6.8 8.1 9.0 9.7 10.1 9.8 8.9 7.8 6.2 5.0 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Sam Houston St. 9 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.8 7.6 8.6 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.0 8.3 7.0 5.5 4.0 2.8 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida International 8 - 12 0.5 1.7 3.5 5.4 7.5 9.1 10.0 10.3 10.3 9.7 8.3 6.8 5.7 4.3 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Delaware 7 - 13 0.9 3.0 5.1 7.9 9.4 10.6 10.9 10.6 9.8 8.3 6.9 5.5 4.0 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 34.5% 25.9 6.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
New Mexico St. 13.1% 8.6 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 10.9% 7.2 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 11.3% 7.3 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 10.3% 6.6 3.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Jacksonville St. 9.1% 5.8 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Western Kentucky 8.0% 5.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 8.7% 5.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 7.3% 4.3 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 4.2% 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida International 2.9% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Delaware 1.9% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 24.9% 24.3% 0.6% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 7.3 8.5 4.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 75.1 0.7%
New Mexico St. 10.9% 10.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 89.1 0.2%
Kennesaw St. 9.3% 9.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 3.3 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 90.7 0.1%
Louisiana Tech 9.2% 9.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 90.8 0.1%
Middle Tennessee 8.7% 8.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 91.3 0.1%
Jacksonville St. 8.2% 8.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3 2.6 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 91.8 0.1%
Western Kentucky 7.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 92.6 0.0%
UTEP 7.4% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 92.6 0.1%
Missouri St. 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 93.5 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 4.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 96.0 0.0%
Florida International 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 97.1 0.0%
Delaware 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 98.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 24.9% 0.4% 24.8% 5.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 10.9% 0.2% 10.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.3% 0.2% 9.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 9.2% 0.2% 9.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.7% 0.4% 8.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 8.2% 0.1% 8.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 7.4% 0.2% 7.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 7.4% 0.2% 7.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 6.5% 0.2% 6.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 4.0% 0.2% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.9% 0.2% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 1.9% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.7 1.3 0.0
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.7 98.0 1.4
2nd Round 15.0% 0.2 85.0 14.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0