Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#238
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#317
Pace63.1#330
Improvement-1.4#289

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#318
First Shot-8.4#360
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#38
Layup/Dunks-1.4#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
Freethrows-1.6#268
Improvement-1.9#322

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#139
First Shot-2.9#271
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#14
Layups/Dunks-2.3#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#131
Freethrows-2.5#312
Improvement+0.5#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 14.1% 19.0% 6.3%
.500 or above in Conference 25.5% 30.2% 17.9%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 19.9% 16.1% 26.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round1.6% 2.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 33 - 94 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 14 260 Coastal Carolina W 74-67 65%     1 - 0 -1.6 +3.3 -4.6
  Wed, Nov 19 165 South Alabama L 65-71 47%     1 - 1 -9.7 -6.2 -3.8
  Mon, Nov 24 155 @Arkansas St. L 63-74 24%     1 - 2 -8.0 -10.9 +3.4
  Wed, Nov 26 149 North Dakota St. L 43-56 32%     1 - 3 -12.6 -23.1 +8.8
  Mon, Dec 1 200 North Alabama L 66-73 54%     1 - 4 -12.4 -5.5 -7.3
  Sat, Dec 13 334 @Georgia St. W 67-64 61%    
  Wed, Dec 17 258 Eastern Kentucky W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Dec 20 115 @East Tennessee St. L 62-73 16%    
  Mon, Dec 29 123 Western Kentucky L 68-72 34%    
  Fri, Jan 2 287 @Delaware L 66-67 48%    
  Sun, Jan 4 98 @Liberty L 60-73 13%    
  Wed, Jan 7 207 Florida International W 69-68 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 162 @Kennesaw St. L 70-77 26%    
  Wed, Jan 14 133 Sam Houston St. L 68-71 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 188 Louisiana Tech W 62-61 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 138 Middle Tennessee L 66-69 39%    
  Wed, Jan 28 207 @Florida International L 66-71 36%    
  Sat, Jan 31 242 @Missouri St. L 61-64 40%    
  Thu, Feb 5 123 @Western Kentucky L 65-75 18%    
  Sat, Feb 7 162 Kennesaw St. L 73-74 46%    
  Wed, Feb 11 241 UTEP W 64-61 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 116 New Mexico St. L 61-66 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 188 @Louisiana Tech L 59-64 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 133 @Sam Houston St. L 65-74 22%    
  Thu, Feb 26 287 Delaware W 69-64 67%    
  Sat, Feb 28 98 Liberty L 63-70 28%    
  Thu, Mar 5 116 @New Mexico St. L 58-69 19%    
  Sat, Mar 7 241 @UTEP L 61-64 40%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 1.1 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.3 3.3 0.6 0.0 12.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 3.2 5.4 3.7 0.8 0.0 13.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 5.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 13.9 11th
12th 0.3 1.1 2.8 3.8 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 13.2 12th
Total 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.2 7.5 10.6 12.2 12.6 11.5 10.4 8.2 6.7 4.4 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 84.6% 0.0    0.0
17-3 96.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 75.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 40.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 15.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.2% 23.5% 23.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 18.1% 18.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 0.8% 11.0% 11.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-6 1.6% 11.6% 11.6% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
13-7 3.0% 8.1% 8.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
12-8 4.4% 5.5% 5.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
11-9 6.7% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.4
10-10 8.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 8.0
9-11 10.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.3
8-12 11.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.4
7-13 12.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.5
6-14 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-15 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.5
4-16 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-17 5.2% 5.2
2-18 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%