South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#165
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#88
Pace63.1#333
Improvement+1.5#77

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#160
First Shot+1.6#133
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#268
Layup/Dunks+5.7#27
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#305
Freethrows-0.3#199
Improvement+2.1#33

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot+1.0#136
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#292
Layups/Dunks+6.1#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-13.1#365
Freethrows+5.0#5
Improvement-0.7#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 15.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 96.8% 98.9% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 89.0% 82.5%
Conference Champion 17.9% 20.8% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.4% 15.8% 10.5%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 414 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 173 @Toledo W 76-74 40%     1 - 0 +3.9 +7.8 -3.8
  Thu, Nov 6 333 Alcorn St. W 76-70 88%     2 - 0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.7
  Thu, Nov 13 309 Central Michigan W 66-64 76%     3 - 0 -6.2 -2.5 -3.4
  Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72-62 93%     4 - 0 -7.0 -3.5 -3.0
  Wed, Nov 19 238 @Jacksonville St. W 71-65 53%     5 - 0 +4.5 +4.8 +0.1
  Fri, Nov 21 112 @UAB L 72-80 24%     5 - 1 -1.3 +9.5 -11.5
  Sun, Nov 30 269 @Texas San Antonio W 82-58 59%     6 - 1 +21.0 +8.0 +12.6
  Tue, Dec 2 116 New Mexico St. W 77-75 35%     7 - 1 +5.3 +10.9 -5.5
  Fri, Dec 5 115 @East Tennessee St. L 65-91 25%     7 - 2 -19.6 -3.0 -17.3
  Sun, Dec 14 145 North Texas W 65-64 55%    
  Wed, Dec 17 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Dec 20 232 @Texas St. W 67-66 51%    
  Wed, Dec 31 318 @Louisiana W 67-62 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 146 @Troy L 67-72 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 226 Georgia Southern W 77-71 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 155 Arkansas St. W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 17 318 Louisiana W 70-59 85%    
  Thu, Jan 22 169 @James Madison L 69-72 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 170 @Marshall L 71-74 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 260 Coastal Carolina W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 334 Georgia St. W 76-63 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 283 @Appalachian St. W 66-63 60%    
  Thu, Feb 12 219 @Southern Miss L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 155 @Arkansas St. L 73-77 37%    
  Thu, Feb 19 232 Texas St. W 70-64 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 146 Troy W 70-69 55%    
  Wed, Feb 25 357 Louisiana Monroe W 79-63 93%    
  Fri, Feb 27 219 Southern Miss W 74-68 70%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.5 5.4 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.2 17.9 1st
2nd 0.5 3.3 6.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 6.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.6 3.8 0.6 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.1 4.8 0.8 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.7 1.4 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.5 2.3 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.9 6.8 9.7 13.1 14.9 14.9 13.2 9.8 6.3 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 97.0% 2.8    2.5 0.3
15-3 82.8% 5.2    3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 55.1% 5.4    2.4 2.3 0.6 0.1
13-5 19.3% 2.5    0.6 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.9% 17.9 10.5 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 48.3% 48.3% 11.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 42.3% 42.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6
16-2 2.9% 44.8% 44.8% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6
15-3 6.3% 33.1% 33.1% 13.4 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 4.2
14-4 9.8% 28.7% 28.7% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.0
13-5 13.2% 21.3% 21.3% 13.9 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 10.4
12-6 14.9% 13.6% 13.6% 14.2 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 12.8
11-7 14.9% 6.7% 6.7% 14.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 13.9
10-8 13.1% 4.0% 4.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.5
9-9 9.7% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5
8-10 6.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
7-11 3.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.1 2.5 0.2 86.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.4 60.7 35.7 3.6