IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
South Alabama
Sun Belt
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.6	#163
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.3	#353
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.8	#225

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.2	#128

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.3%	14.1%	7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.2	12.8	13.4

.500 or above	68.0%	82.3%	57.5%
.500 or above in Conference	74.2%	82.4%	68.3%
Conference Champion	12.7%	17.4%	9.2%
Last Place in Conference	1.7%	0.7%	2.5%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	10.3%	14.2%	7.5%
Second Round	1.0%	1.7%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 42.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 6	5 - 9
Quad 4	11 - 3	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	180	@ Toledo	L	68-70	42%
Nov 06, 2025	326	Alcorn St.	W	68-56	87%
Nov 13, 2025	299	Central Michigan	W	68-61	73%
Nov 14, 2025	362	Coppin St.	W	71-54	93%
Nov 19, 2025	153	@ Jacksonville St.	L	60-64	36%
Nov 21, 2025	102	@ UAB	L	64-72	23%
Dec 02, 2025	138	New Mexico St.	L	61-63	43%
Dec 05, 2025	152	@ East Tennessee St.	L	61-65	37%
Dec 14, 2025	89	North Texas	L	55-58	38%
Dec 17, 2025	348	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	69-61	76%
Dec 20, 2025	193	@ Texas St.	L	63-65	45%
Dec 31, 2025	234	@ Louisiana	W	64-63	51%
Jan 03, 2026	130	@ Troy	L	60-66	32%
Jan 10, 2026	249	Georgia Southern	W	72-65	72%
Jan 15, 2026	140	Arkansas St.	W	68-67	54%
Jan 17, 2026	234	Louisiana	W	67-61	70%
Jan 22, 2026	129	@ James Madison	L	61-67	32%
Jan 24, 2026	187	@ Marshall	L	65-67	44%
Jan 29, 2026	275	Coastal Carolina	W	67-58	76%
Jan 31, 2026	284	Georgia St.	W	72-63	79%
Feb 04, 2026	201	@ Appalachian St.	L	58-59	46%
Feb 12, 2026	281	@ Southern Miss	W	69-66	60%
Feb 14, 2026	140	@ Arkansas St.	L	65-70	34%
Feb 19, 2026	193	Texas St.	W	66-62	64%
Feb 21, 2026	130	Troy	W	63-62	52%
Feb 25, 2026	348	Louisiana Monroe	W	72-58	88%
Feb 27, 2026	281	Southern Miss	W	72-63	77%
Projected Record						15 - 12	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.1	3.4	3.7	2.7	1.3	0.3		12.7	1st
2nd												0.2	1.7	3.8	3.6	1.6	0.3	0.0			11.2	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.5	4.6	3.7	1.1	0.1					11.1	3rd
4th										0.0	1.2	4.7	3.9	1.0	0.1						10.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	3.5	4.3	1.1	0.1							9.7	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	2.6	4.5	1.5	0.1	0.0							8.9	6th
7th								0.1	1.4	4.3	1.8	0.2	0.0								7.8	7th
8th							0.0	0.9	3.2	2.6	0.4	0.0									7.1	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	2.4	2.6	0.5	0.0										5.9	9th
10th					0.0	0.2	1.5	2.7	0.9	0.0											5.2	10th
11th				0.0	0.1	1.0	1.6	1.0	0.0												3.8	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.6	1.3	0.8	0.1	0.0												2.9	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.0													1.8	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0															0.9	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.6	3.1	4.4	7.1	8.3	10.8	11.6	12.3	11.7	9.7	8.2	5.3	3.0	1.3	0.3			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	98.7%	1.3		1.2	0.0
16-2	89.8%	2.7		2.1	0.6	0.0
15-3	68.4%	3.7		2.2	1.2	0.2	0.0
14-4	41.1%	3.4		1.3	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	11.8%	1.1		0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.0%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	12.7%	12.7		7.4	3.7	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		69.6%	68.3%	1.3%	10.5					0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.1		4.1%
17-1	1.3%		52.9%	52.9%		11.8											0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.6
16-2	3.0%		42.1%	42.1%		12.2											0.0	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0		1.8
15-3	5.3%		35.1%	35.1%		12.7												0.2	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0	3.5
14-4	8.2%		27.6%	27.6%		13.1												0.0	0.6	0.9	0.6	0.1		5.9
13-5	9.7%		19.1%	19.1%		13.5												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0	7.9
12-6	11.7%		9.8%	9.8%		14.5													0.0	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	10.5
11-7	12.3%		4.6%	4.6%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	11.8
10-8	11.6%		2.2%	2.2%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	11.3
9-9	10.8%		1.0%	1.0%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.7
8-10	8.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.9															0.0	0.0	0.0	8.3
7-11	7.1%		0.2%	0.2%		15.7																0.0	0.0	7.1
6-12	4.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.4
5-13	3.1%																							3.1
4-14	1.6%																							1.6
3-15	0.8%																							0.8
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.3%	10.3%	0.0%	13.2					0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.8	2.5	3.2	2.7	0.9	0.2	89.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	6.0				28.8		42.8	14.4		14.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%