UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#112
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#106
Pace72.9#101
Improvement+0.0#183

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#120
First Shot-2.2#234
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#20
Layup/Dunks+6.6#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.1#364
Freethrows+0.5#154
Improvement+1.0#101

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#118
First Shot-0.6#191
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#55
Layups/Dunks-1.9#248
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#234
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement-1.0#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.9% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 90.1% 93.4% 81.7%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 77.9% 68.0%
Conference Champion 10.8% 12.0% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.2% 2.6%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round8.9% 9.8% 6.6%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 71.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 39 - 511 - 10
Quad 49 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106-55 99%     1 - 0 +25.9 +4.3 +12.7
  Fri, Nov 7 35 @North Carolina St. L 70-94 13%     1 - 1 -8.0 -2.5 -4.0
  Tue, Nov 11 268 Alabama St. L 74-77 88%     1 - 2 -12.0 -8.7 -3.1
  Fri, Nov 14 93 High Point W 91-74 56%     2 - 2 +19.3 +6.4 +11.1
  Fri, Nov 21 165 South Alabama W 80-72 76%     3 - 2 +4.3 +12.6 -7.6
  Mon, Nov 24 142 Southern Illinois W 81-73 59%     4 - 2 +9.3 +8.1 +1.1
  Tue, Nov 25 241 UTEP W 75-59 78%     5 - 2 +11.5 +11.1 +2.2
  Mon, Dec 1 138 @Middle Tennessee L 61-76 47%     5 - 3 -10.4 -6.6 -4.7
  Fri, Dec 5 128 @Drake W 74-69 43%     6 - 3 +10.5 +5.9 +4.7
  Sun, Dec 14 146 Troy W 78-72 72%    
  Wed, Dec 17 308 Cleveland St. W 89-74 91%    
  Sun, Dec 21 210 UNC Asheville W 81-71 82%    
  Wed, Dec 31 97 Wichita St. W 75-73 57%    
  Tue, Jan 6 79 @South Florida L 77-84 28%    
  Wed, Jan 7 126 Florida Atlantic W 78-74 65%    
  Sun, Jan 11 245 @East Carolina W 78-73 69%    
  Wed, Jan 14 172 @Tulane W 78-76 56%    
  Sun, Jan 18 91 Tulsa W 76-75 55%    
  Thu, Jan 22 79 South Florida L 80-81 48%    
  Wed, Jan 28 269 @Texas San Antonio W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 145 @North Texas L 69-70 50%    
  Thu, Feb 5 75 Memphis L 76-77 47%    
  Sun, Feb 8 217 Rice W 78-68 82%    
  Wed, Feb 11 91 @Tulsa L 73-78 33%    
  Sun, Feb 15 172 Tulane W 81-73 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 157 @Temple W 80-79 53%    
  Sun, Feb 22 75 @Memphis L 73-80 28%    
  Sun, Mar 1 145 North Texas W 72-66 70%    
  Wed, Mar 4 186 @Charlotte W 73-70 60%    
  Sun, Mar 8 245 East Carolina W 81-70 84%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 10.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.6 5.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 6.3 2.8 0.3 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 5.8 3.3 0.3 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.9 3.8 0.5 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.3 1.0 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.5 6.9 9.6 12.7 14.0 14.3 12.7 9.8 6.5 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 99.0% 1.3    1.3 0.1
15-3 85.3% 2.9    2.2 0.7 0.0
14-4 56.3% 3.7    1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 20.8% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 6.1 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 36.9% 30.3% 6.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9.4%
16-2 1.4% 34.1% 31.9% 2.2% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 3.3%
15-3 3.4% 25.3% 25.1% 0.2% 11.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 2.5 0.3%
14-4 6.5% 22.3% 22.2% 0.1% 11.8 0.4 0.9 0.1 5.0 0.1%
13-5 9.8% 17.1% 17.1% 12.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.1
12-6 12.7% 12.3% 12.3% 12.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 11.1
11-7 14.3% 9.0% 9.0% 12.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 13.0
10-8 14.0% 5.1% 5.1% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 13.3
9-9 12.7% 3.1% 3.1% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.3
8-10 9.6% 1.8% 1.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5
7-11 6.9% 2.4% 2.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7
6-12 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 2.1% 2.1
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 91.1 0.1%