UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +3.0 116
Results Rating +3.5 115
Consistency 0.15 164
Pace 71.9 90
Improvement -1.2 228

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 156 D+ C A C C
Defense B- 96 C B+ C B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 22 C+ 59% 142 +4.4 38
2 Pt. Jumpers 52% 40 D+ 35% 278 +0.7 140
Three Pointers 30% 354 F 28% 364 -8.5 359
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 200 D+ -3.1 285
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 280
Second Chance C+ 32.2% 118 C- 1.00 227 C 0.32 151
Opponents' Steals A- 7.2% 14
Other Turnovers A 4.7% 2
Turnovers A 11.9% 4
Freethrows C 0.31 178 C- 71% 223 C 0.22 189
Total Offense C +0.3 156

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 229 B- 9.6% 99
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 37% 40 F+ 8.9% 344
Three Pointers C- 81% 257 B 0.3% 42
Total D+ 51% 288 D+ 6.6% 301


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 C- 60% 224 +0.2 187
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 150 B- 35% 81 -0.3 161
Three Pointers 41% 181 C+ 33% 154 -0.3 168
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 140 C -0.4 165
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 158
Second Chance B 26.0% 38 B+ 0.91 36 B+ 0.24 25
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.8% 80
Other Turnovers F+ 5.6% 352
Turnovers C 16.5% 193
Freethrows B+ 0.24 20 C- 73% 246 B+ 0.18 33
Total Defense B- +2.8 96

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 216 C- 9.3% 236
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 88 B- 6.8% 72
Three Pointers B- 81% 98 C+ 1.2% 95
Total C 55% 160 C 5.5% 180

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 89 17.4 204
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 36 0.18 203
Consistency 0.11 61 0.12 140
Improvement -3.1 317 +1.9 84

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 130 116 104
Results Rating Rank 133 115 92
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 6% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 12.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 6% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 1
Quad 22 - 34 - 4
Quad 37 - 611 - 10
Quad 49 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106 - 55 99% +29  96% 1 - 0 A+ +26 C+ +3 D C+ A+ A+ +14 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 36 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 94 10% -11  9% 1 - 1 D+ -7 D+ -4 F+ B- B- C- -2 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 316 Alabama St. L 74 - 77 92% -4  21% 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -11 F D+ B- D+ -5 D- A- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 94 High Point W 91 - 74 51% +3  71% 2 - 2 A +20 B- +5 B- F+ A+ A+ +13 A A+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 187 South Alabama W 80 - 72 77% +5  86% 3 - 2 C+ +3 A- +11 A- C+ B+ D- -7 D+ A- F
 Mon, Nov 24 121 Southern Illinois W 81 - 73 51% +5  85% 4 - 2 B +11 A +12 C A+ A+ C -1 C+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 25 260 UTEP W 75 - 59 79% +7  83% 5 - 2 B +10 B +7 F A- A+ B+ +5 D+ A A-
 Mon, Dec 1 163 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 76 52% -4  46% 5 - 3 D- -12 F+ -10 F A+ D+ D+ -3 B- F+ C-
 Fri, Dec 5 207 @Drake W 74 - 69 60% +2  78% 6 - 3 B- +6 C- -1 F+ A- D+ B+ +6 A B+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 151 Troy L 85 - 86 71% -0  43% 6 - 4 C- -4 A- +11 A A- B F -14 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 322 Cleveland St. W 101 - 77 93% +7  72% 7 - 4 B +11 B+ +9 B C A+ C+ +1 F+ A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 21 246 UNC Asheville W 72 - 47 84% +13  87% 8 - 4 A- +17 C- -1 D+ D+ A+ A+ +20 A A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 92 Wichita St. L 70 - 75 50% +6  88% 8 - 5 0 - 1 C- -2 C+ +3 C- B- A+ D+ -5 D+ D B
 Sun, Jan 4 54 @South Florida W 109 - 106 2OT 16% -3  19% 9 - 5 1 - 1 A- +16 A- +10 C- F+ A+ B+ +5 D+ A C-
 Wed, Jan 7 125 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 76 63% -7  3% 9 - 6 1 - 2 D+ -5 D- -7 F B- C B- +2 A C+ C-
 Sun, Jan 11 234 @East Carolina W 87 - 85 OT 65% +2  59% 10 - 6 2 - 2 C +1 C- -2 F+ C A+ B- +2 C- B- B+
 Wed, Jan 14 184 @Tulane W 82 - 69 57% +4  79% 11 - 6 3 - 2 B+ +14 B+ +8 C- A+ B+ B+ +6 B+ D- C-
 Sun, Jan 18 64 Tulsa L 77 - 99 39% -10  0% 11 - 7 3 - 3 F+ -16 C- -1 D+ D- A+ F -15 F A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 54 South Florida L 69 - 82 34% -8  3% 11 - 8 3 - 4 D+ -6 D- -8 F A- A+ B +4 C C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 335 @Texas San Antonio W 83 - 73 86% +1  63% 12 - 8 4 - 4 C +1 C+ +3 C+ D- A+ C -1 B- C- F
 Sat, Jan 31 136 @North Texas W 72 - 68 45% +0  41% 13 - 8 5 - 4 B +8 B +7 A C+ A B- +2 B- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 120 Memphis L 80 - 90 62% -8  2% 13 - 9 5 - 5 D -10 C- -2 D- B+ A D- -7 F A B-
 Sun, Feb 8 218 Rice W 71 - 65 81% -1  31% 14 - 9 6 - 5 C -0 D -5 D- C+ A+ B +5 B+ B- D+
 Wed, Feb 11 64 @Tulsa W 68 - 63 20% +4  80% 15 - 9 7 - 5 A- +17 C- -2 F C A+ A+ +19 A A+ A+
 Sun, Feb 15 184 Tulane L 54 - 55 77% -5  16% 15 - 10 7 - 6 D+ -6 F -17 F F A A +11 B A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 165 @Temple W 76 - 71 52% +2  64% 16 - 10 8 - 6 B- +7 B- +5 B+ F A+ B- +3 B+ C- F
 Sun, Feb 22 120 @Memphis W 78 - 67 39% +9  84% 17 - 10 9 - 6 A- +17 B +7 B+ F+ A- A +10 C A B
 Sun, Mar 1 136 North Texas L 58 - 62 67% +2  68% 17 - 11 9 - 7 D+ -6 F+ -9 D+ F A- B- +3 A- D- F
 Wed, Mar 4 170 @Charlotte W 80 - 74 53% -2  19% 18 - 11 10 - 7 B- +8 A- +10 D A+ A C- -2 F+ A+ F
 Sun, Mar 8 234 East Carolina W 80 - 70 83%
Totals 19 - 11 11 - 7 +3 C +0 A+ D+ C B- +3 F C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ F D+ 45% 52% 30% C D+ C+ C- C A C C- C B- C- B- C+ C 38% 21% 41% C C B B+ B+ C B+ C- B+
1.09 59% 35% 28% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 12% .31 71% .22 1.05 60% 35% 33% 0 0 1.01 26% 0.9 .24 16% .24 73% .22
Nov
3		 Mississippi Valley C+ A+ F F D 35% 27% 38% D- D D+ A C+ A+ A F C A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 32% 42% D A+ A+ F B A+ D- F F
1.25 77% 29% 29% +2 -1 1.03 34% 1.5 .50 9% .48 62% .30 0.65 46% 13% 24% -18 -2 0.62 13% 1.2 .15 31% .32 95% .31
Nov
7		 North Carolina St. D+ C- A+ F F+ 45% 19% 36% C+ F+ A+ F+ B- B- F+ F F C- F F C+ F+ 38% 12% 50% C- D- F F+ F A+ D F+ F+
0.94 54% 55% 14% -9 +1 0.84 39% 0.8 .32 19% .23 57% .13 1.26 80% 50% 35% +10 +1 1.25 38% 1.4 .52 19% .36 82% .30
Nov
11		 Alabama St. F D+ B F F 51% 20% 29% C+ F C+ F+ D+ B- F B D- D+ F+ A+ C D 45% 18% 38% F+ D- C A+ A- D- D B C-
0.99 57% 42% 12% -10 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 16% .29 78% .22 1.03 64% 20% 33% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.6 .18 15% .31 65% .20
Nov
14		 High Point B- B A+ D B 48% 27% 25% D+ B- D F+ F+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F+ B+ A+ A 42% 18% 40% B A B A+ A+ A F B+ F
1.16 64% 50% 31% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.9 .24 14% .52 77% .40 0.95 70% 30% 18% -6 +1 0.91 28% 0.7 .20 19% .49 71% .35
Nov
21		 South Alabama A- A+ A+ D+ A 30% 15% 55% C- A- A- F+ C+ B+ A+ F A D- D- A- C- D 42% 21% 38% B- D+ B+ A A- F F A- F+
1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24 1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26
Nov
24		 Southern Illinois A D+ C C+ C+ 35% 33% 33% F+ C A A+ A+ A+ B C B C F D- A+ C+ 34% 29% 36% B- C+ B A+ A- F A F B-
1.15 53% 39% 33% -2 -2 0.95 38% 1.3 .50 13% .33 70% .23 1.04 70% 47% 19% -1 -1 0.97 26% 0.7 .18 11% .21 85% .18
Nov
25		 UTEP B B F F F 48% 33% 20% C- F A+ F A- A+ A+ C A+ B+ C- C+ D+ D+ 23% 27% 50% C+ D+ A+ A A A- D+ D- D
1.19 64% 20% 22% -7 -1 0.87 54% 0.9 .46 11% .61 74% .45 0.93 60% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 16% 0.8 .13 21% .30 73% .22
Dec
1		 Middle Tennessee F+ F D F F 36% 18% 46% C F A A A+ D+ F+ B- D- D+ C A+ D B 42% 23% 36% D B- C+ F F+ C- B F C
0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20 1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18
Dec
5		 Drake C- A D- F D- 36% 36% 28% D- F+ A- B- A- D+ A+ B+ A+ B+ B- A+ D A 36% 24% 40% C A B B B+ D- B D- C+
1.08 71% 29% 23% -3 -2 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 75% .37 1.01 55% 8% 36% -7 -1 0.87 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
14		 Troy A- A- A+ A A+ 37% 26% 37% D+ A C- A+ A- B D- C- D- F A C- F F 42% 9% 49% C- F A F+ C+ F B- C- B-
1.25 65% 57% 40% +11 -1 1.22 31% 1.4 .45 15% .22 69% .16 1.27 45% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 27% 1.1 .30 12% .27 75% .20
Dec
17		 Cleveland St. B+ B+ D- B+ C+ 56% 11% 33% A B C C C A+ A+ F B+ C+ A A F D- 47% 8% 45% F F+ A+ A+ A+ B- B+ F C
1.37 71% 33% 39% +9 +3 1.25 36% 1.1 .39 9% .43 66% .28 1.04 44% 25% 54% +6 +2 1.19 16% 0.0 .00 19% .25 93% .23
Dec
21		 UNC Asheville C- C- F C- D- 62% 15% 23% A- D+ C+ F D+ A+ C- C- C- A+ A D A+ B+ 18% 55% 27% A+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A+
1.12 56% 25% 33% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 8% .30 67% .20 0.73 44% 44% 23% -3 -6 0.84 19% 0.0 .00 20% .18 67% .12
Dec
31		 Wichita St. C+ B F F D+ 47% 33% 20% C+ C- C+ B+ B- A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ F A+ F D- 36% 30% 34% A- D+ D D+ D B B- F+ C
1.08 63% 29% 20% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.1 .31 11% .41 71% .29 1.15 72% 7% 47% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.1 .46 17% .30 75% .22
Jan
4		 South Florida A- B F A C- 51% 28% 20% B- C- F+ F F+ A+ A+ B- A+ B+ C- B- C- D+ 39% 9% 52% B D+ A A- A C- F+ A+ C
1.13 61% 14% 40% -4 0 0.95 21% 0.8 .16 8% .48 72% .35 1.10 58% 33% 34% 0 +2 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 14% .43 64% .28
Jan
7		 Florida Atlantic D- F F F F 42% 25% 34% D F C- A+ B- C A+ C- A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% D+ A B+ D- C+ C- F F F
0.96 41% 23% 28% -14 0 0.74 24% 1.3 .31 16% .45 71% .32 1.03 44% 57% 25% -9 +1 0.85 28% 1.2 .33 16% .39 79% .31
Jan
11		 East Carolina C- F+ B+ F F 55% 25% 20% B F+ D A- C A+ C+ F C- B- D- A+ D- D+ 33% 32% 35% B+ C- D+ A- B- B+ C B+ C+
1.04 49% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.89 27% 1.3 .36 10% .28 67% .19 1.02 62% 25% 36% -2 -2 0.95 35% 0.9 .30 20% .35 65% .23
Jan
14		 Tulane B+ C- F A+ D+ 55% 28% 17% C C- A A A+ B+ C- A+ A- B+ B- D- A+ A- 40% 13% 47% D B+ C+ F D- C- B+ B- B+
1.17 55% 27% 44% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .30 94% .28 0.99 55% 43% 23% -9 +1 0.87 21% 1.5 .32 14% .32 74% .23
Jan
18		 Tulsa C- B+ D C- C 38% 41% 21% F D+ D+ F D- A+ A- C B+ F F F F F 49% 10% 41% C- F A B A C- A+ F A+
1.08 67% 30% 33% 0 -3 0.96 23% 0.9 .20 7% .33 73% .24 1.38 72% 67% 46% +17 +2 1.41 24% 1.2 .28 14% .16 90% .15
Jan
22		 South Florida D- F F F F 37% 29% 35% C- F A C A- A+ A- A+ A+ B A+ F F+ C 39% 4% 57% C C C C+ C+ A+ C+ A+ A-
0.91 39% 28% 18% -18 -1 0.63 40% 1.0 .38 13% .38 84% .32 1.08 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.1 .43 21% .35 62% .22
Jan
28		 Texas San Antonio C+ C+ A+ F+ B- 37% 29% 35% F+ C+ F+ C D- A+ A+ F A+ C A- C+ B+ B- 34% 24% 42% B B- B F C- F C- F D-
1.18 61% 57% 29% +4 -1 1.08 29% 1.1 .32 10% .50 66% .33 1.03 45% 36% 28% -9 -1 0.83 26% 1.2 .31 13% .28 82% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Texas B A A D+ A 43% 23% 34% C+ A D A+ C+ A D+ F F+ B- D+ C A+ B- 50% 23% 27% C+ B- A+ A+ A+ F D D D-
1.08 70% 45% 31% +5 0 1.13 27% 1.3 .33 18% .33 61% .20 1.02 62% 33% 14% -7 +1 0.88 25% 0.7 .17 9% .38 74% .28
Feb
5		 Memphis C- A+ F F D- 26% 15% 58% C+ D- C+ A- B+ A A+ F A D- F D F F 28% 39% 33% A+ F A C+ A B- D D D
1.00 79% 13% 23% -8 0 0.85 35% 1.1 .37 16% .52 60% .31 1.13 75% 41% 42% +10 -3 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 20% .33 76% .25
Feb
8		 Rice D C+ F F+ F+ 37% 25% 38% B- D- C+ C C+ A+ B- F D+ B C- C A B+ 22% 30% 48% B- B+ D+ A- B- D+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 23% 30% -4 -1 0.92 34% 1.0 .34 11% .35 62% .22 0.98 58% 38% 27% -5 -2 0.87 37% 0.8 .28 17% .18 50% .09
Feb
11		 Tulsa C- F F B F 50% 20% 30% B- F C+ D+ C A+ D- D+ D- A+ D B A+ A 43% 12% 45% C+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.02 44% 18% 38% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 9% .21 69% .15 0.94 64% 33% 26% -4 +1 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 21% .17 67% .11
Feb
15		 Tulane F D- F F F 46% 19% 35% B- F B- F F A C F D- A A A- C B+ 39% 14% 47% D B B A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.86 50% 22% 24% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.4 .15 13% .31 59% .18 0.88 45% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.90 19% 0.6 .11 16% .09 100% .09
Feb
18		 Temple B- A- B B+ A- 43% 31% 25% D B+ F F F A+ C+ A- B B- D C+ A+ A- 50% 30% 20% C B+ D- B- C- F B+ A+ A
1.15 68% 44% 38% +8 -1 1.16 17% 0.4 .07 9% .32 79% .25 1.08 63% 38% 9% -5 0 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 8% .31 63% .20
Feb
22		 Memphis B C A C+ B+ 42% 25% 34% C+ B+ C F F+ A- A C A- A B F A+ C 41% 27% 31% C C A C+ A B B+ A A-
1.09 59% 46% 33% +2 0 1.06 32% 0.5 .18 17% .42 72% .30 0.93 52% 57% 25% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.1 .31 21% .25 64% .16
Mar
1		 North Texas F+ C- F+ F+ D 44% 16% 40% B+ D+ F+ F F A- B- D- C B- A A+ B A 58% 15% 27% F+ A- A+ F D- F A+ A+ A+
0.90 55% 29% 28% -7 +1 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 19% .38 65% .25 0.97 47% 13% 29% -13 +2 0.81 25% 1.7 .42 12% .18 60% .11
Mar
4		 Charlotte A- B F F D- 51% 22% 27% B D A+ B A+ A B- A+ A+ C- F F C+ F 35% 15% 50% C+ F+ A A+ A+ F B- C+ B-
1.25 65% 18% 21% -6 +1 0.92 46% 1.3 .57 9% .35 100% .35 1.16 76% 71% 33% +11 +1 1.25 26% 0.3 .06 13% .30 71% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 1.9 1.9 3rd
4th 15.6 81.6 97.3 4th
5th 0.9 0.9 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 16.5 83.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 83.5% 6.3% 6.3% 12.2 0.3 3.6 1.3 0.0 78.2
10-8 16.5% 3.3% 3.3% 12.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 16.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 12.2 94.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 12.2 6.3 68.1 25.1 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 35.7%
Lose Out 5.3%