Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#91
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#52
Pace65.7#281
Improvement+0.5#145

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#71
First Shot+4.2#69
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#149
Layup/Dunks-1.0#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#31
Freethrows+2.4#66
Improvement-0.7#239

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#140
First Shot-0.2#177
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#111
Layups/Dunks-0.6#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#203
Freethrows+1.0#121
Improvement+1.2#74
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 17.0% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 97.0% 97.8% 90.4%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 86.9% 79.4%
Conference Champion 21.8% 22.8% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round16.0% 16.6% 10.4%
Second Round3.5% 3.7% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 39 - 412 - 9
Quad 410 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 110 Rhode Island W 82-65 56%     1 - 0 +20.9 +17.8 +4.4
  Wed, Nov 12 311 @Oral Roberts W 88-87 85%     2 - 0 -4.4 +7.6 -12.0
  Mon, Nov 17 71 @Kansas St. L 83-84 31%     2 - 1 +9.8 +7.8 +2.1
  Fri, Nov 21 182 Austin Peay W 84-75 83%     3 - 1 +4.4 +13.2 -8.6
  Tue, Nov 25 185 San Jose St. W 81-51 76%     4 - 1 +28.2 +18.7 +13.8
  Wed, Nov 26 87 Northern Iowa W 63-60 49%     5 - 1 +8.9 +2.9 +6.4
  Sat, Dec 6 242 Missouri St. W 74-61 89%    
  Wed, Dec 10 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 88-65 98%    
  Sat, Dec 13 116 New Mexico St. W 70-68 58%    
  Fri, Dec 19 123 @Western Kentucky L 76-77 49%    
  Mon, Dec 22 291 Denver W 85-69 93%    
  Wed, Dec 31 217 Rice W 77-65 86%    
  Sun, Jan 4 145 @North Texas W 69-67 57%    
  Sat, Jan 10 79 South Florida W 78-77 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 186 @Charlotte W 73-68 66%    
  Sun, Jan 18 112 @UAB L 75-76 45%    
  Wed, Jan 21 75 Memphis W 75-74 54%    
  Sun, Jan 25 217 @Rice W 74-68 70%    
  Wed, Jan 28 145 North Texas W 72-64 75%    
  Sun, Feb 1 97 Wichita St. W 74-70 63%    
  Wed, Feb 4 126 @Florida Atlantic L 74-75 50%    
  Sun, Feb 8 79 @South Florida L 75-80 34%    
  Wed, Feb 11 112 UAB W 78-73 67%    
  Sat, Feb 14 97 @Wichita St. L 71-73 42%    
  Wed, Feb 18 186 Charlotte W 76-65 83%    
  Sun, Feb 22 269 Texas San Antonio W 81-66 90%    
  Wed, Feb 25 172 @Tulane W 77-73 63%    
  Thu, Mar 5 245 @East Carolina W 77-70 74%    
  Sun, Mar 8 157 Temple W 82-73 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.7 6.5 4.1 1.8 0.4 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 7.2 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.5 6.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 5.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 4.7 3.0 0.3 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.0 0.5 7.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.0 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.2 0.2 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.9 6.0 9.4 11.4 13.4 14.0 13.3 10.4 7.9 4.3 1.8 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.6% 1.8    1.7 0.0
16-2 96.8% 4.1    3.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 83.1% 6.5    4.8 1.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.8% 5.7    2.7 2.4 0.7 0.0
13-5 21.0% 2.8    0.5 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 13.8 5.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 79.4% 56.1% 23.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 53.2%
17-1 1.8% 58.6% 43.7% 14.9% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 26.4%
16-2 4.3% 46.5% 38.9% 7.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.3 12.3%
15-3 7.9% 31.6% 29.4% 2.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.7 0.0 5.4 3.0%
14-4 10.4% 26.2% 25.9% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 1.4 1.2 0.1 7.7 0.3%
13-5 13.3% 18.9% 18.8% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.8 0.2%
12-6 14.0% 16.2% 16.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.7 0.1%
11-7 13.4% 11.0% 11.0% 12.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 11.9
10-8 11.4% 6.3% 6.3% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 10.6
9-9 9.4% 5.4% 5.4% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.9
8-10 6.0% 3.8% 3.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
7-11 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.3% 15.4% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 5.9 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 83.7 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.9 7.4 37.0 29.6 11.1 14.8