Arkansas Pine Bluff
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.1 313
Expected Predictive Rating -4.6 235
Pace 74.4 47
Improvement +3.8 43

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #279 D+ D D+ C+ D+
Defense D #314 C- F+ D+ F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 205 55% 260 -1.8 247
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 79 35% 265 +1.2 108
Three Pointers 37% 266 34% 158 -1.8 245
1st FG Attempt 0.97 245 -2.3 245
Second Chance 25.7% 313 1.00 205 0.26 298
Turnovers 18.3% 275
Freethrows 0.31 183 75% 83 0.23 138
Total Offense -4.0 279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 108 61% 254 -2.7 271
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 300 36% 117 +1.8 50
Three Pointers 42% 143 33% 151 -0.1 187
1st FG Attempt 1.04 218 -1.1 216
Second Chance 35.1% 328 1.15 328 0.40 349
Turnovers 15.3% 282
Freethrows 0.38 340 74% 271 0.28 345
Total Defense -5.0 314

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.7 281 +0.7 298
Shot Type Accuracy -1.6 226 +0.4 200
Possession Length 16.4 90 16.9 132
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 200 0.12 38
Improvement +2.5 #61 +1.3 #113

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 10% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 22% 39% 11%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 10% 19% 5%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 8% 7%
First Round5% 6% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Alabama St. (Away) - 40.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 31 - 10
Quad 413 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 46 @Washington L 50 - 94 3% -21  0% 0 - 1 F -30 F -21 F F F D -7 D+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 206 @Portland L 74 - 83 19% -10  4% 0 - 2 D -9 F -11 F C- F B- +4 C+ B+ B+
 Sat, Nov 8 151 @Loyola Marymount L 72 - 94 12% -9  8% 0 - 3 F -19 C -0 B D+ D F -18 F C F
 Tue, Nov 11 54 @Oklahoma L 69 - 95 3% -9  6% 0 - 4 D- -13 D+ -3 D+ C F F+ -10 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 14 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 104 1% -14  0% 0 - 5 D+ -7 B- +4 B D B F+ -10 A- F F+
 Tue, Nov 18 37 @SMU L 60 - 106 2% -24  1% 0 - 6 F -29 F -18 D- F D D+ -5 F+ A- C
 Thu, Nov 20 164 @Marshall L 70 - 98 14% -5  41% 0 - 7 F -25 F -11 F D F+ F -12 F A+ F+
 Sun, Nov 23 87 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 111 5% -16  9% 0 - 8 F -18 C- -1 F A A F -13 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 137 @Illinois-Chicago W 63 - 62 11% +5  86% 1 - 8 B- +5 F -10 C D+ C A+ +16 A+ B A
 Sat, Dec 6 98 @DePaul L 72 - 76 6% +1  51% 1 - 9 C+ +4 C- -1 A F F+ B +6 A+ D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 70 @Tulsa L 84 - 117 4% -16  6% 1 - 10 F -22 C+ +2 B+ C+ F+ F -21 F F D
 Sat, Jan 3 305 Alabama A&M W 95 - 83 59% +4  51% 2 - 10 1 - 0 C +1 A+ +24 A A+ C+ F -22 C- F D+
 Mon, Jan 5 316 Alabama St. W 90 - 79 63% +6  86% 3 - 10 2 - 0 C -2 B- +4 B- D D- D -6 C- C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 309 @Texas Southern W 74 - 66 38% +8  85% 4 - 10 3 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- F B- B +5 A- C D+
 Mon, Jan 12 336 @Prairie View L 61 - 73 47% -6  10% 4 - 11 3 - 1 F -20 F -17 F F D+ C- -3 D- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 328 Florida A&M L 67 - 71 67% -1  27% 4 - 12 3 - 2 F -18 F+ -9 F+ B- C- F+ -9 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 227 Bethune-Cookman L 82 - 87 OT 40% +2  52% 4 - 13 3 - 3 D- -12 D+ -4 B- D- F D -7 B F A-
 Sat, Jan 24 264 @Southern W 75 - 74 27% -2  21% 5 - 13 4 - 3 C- -2 C- -0 D- C- B- C -1 B F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 365 @Mississippi Valley W 78 - 70 86% +7  91% 6 - 13 5 - 3 D- -13 D- -7 F F B- D -6 D- D C
 Wed, Feb 4 285 @Grambling St. W 67 - 64 31% +4  75% 7 - 13 6 - 3 C -1 D -4 F+ B- C B- +3 A- D- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 351 Alcorn St. W 84 - 77 75% +10  99% 8 - 13 7 - 3 D -9 B- +5 A- C+ F F -13 F F F+
 Mon, Feb 9 343 Jackson St. W 84 - 63 72% +10  82% 9 - 13 8 - 3 B- +6 B +6 B+ F+ A C+ +2 A F C-
 Sat, Feb 14 316 @Alabama St. L 76 - 79 40%
 Mon, Feb 16 305 @Alabama A&M L 73 - 77 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 309 Texas Southern W 81 - 78 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 336 Prairie View W 86 - 81 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 84 - 66 95%
 Tue, Mar 3 343 @Jackson St. W 82 - 81 50%
 Thu, Mar 5 351 @Alcorn St. W 79 - 78 54%
Totals 13 - 16 11 - 6 -9 D+ -4 D+ D D+ D -5 C- F+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ D+ C+ C- 37% 26% 37% D+ D+ D C- D D+ C B- C+ D D+ C+ C+ C 41% 17% 42% D C- D- D- F+ D+ F+ D+ F+
1.03 55% 35% 34% -2 -1 0.97 26% 1.0 .26 18% .31 75% .23 1.16 61% 36% 33% 0 +1 1.04 35% 1.2 .40 15% .38 74% .23
Nov
3		 Washington F F F D- F 20% 33% 46% D- F B F F F D- D+ D- D F A+ F D+ 29% 21% 50% C- D+ F C+ F A- F B F
0.68 45% 17% 28% -14 -3 0.69 31% 0.4 .12 22% .21 67% .14 1.28 71% 20% 42% +6 -1 1.13 52% 1.1 .55 19% .56 73% .41
Nov
6		 Portland F D- F D F 36% 18% 46% C F F+ A+ C- F A+ A+ A+ B- D- C- A+ B- 42% 9% 49% F+ C+ A D+ B+ B+ F D F
0.90 50% 11% 30% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.3 .32 23% .43 89% .38 1.01 68% 40% 23% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.3 .29 23% .50 78% .39
Nov
8		 Loyola Marymount C B+ C D+ B+ 40% 30% 30% C- B C+ F+ D+ D F A+ D+ F F A+ F F 23% 11% 66% D F D+ B+ C F F A+ F
1.02 62% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 18% .19 100% .19 1.33 83% 0% 49% +16 0 1.34 31% 0.9 .28 8% .43 57% .25
Nov
11		 Oklahoma D+ C- D- C- D+ 31% 30% 39% D+ D+ B+ F+ C F C- A- C+ F+ C C+ D C 38% 10% 52% D C- F C- F C- F C F
0.99 53% 31% 33% -4 -2 0.91 36% 0.9 .31 22% .27 80% .22 1.36 60% 40% 37% +3 +1 1.12 53% 1.3 .69 13% .39 75% .30
Nov
15		 Vanderbilt B- F C+ A+ B 31% 25% 43% C B D D D B A C- A- F+ C- C+ B+ A 34% 14% 52% C- A- F F F F+ F B- F
1.01 38% 38% 41% -2 -1 0.96 21% 0.9 .18 17% .42 73% .31 1.40 65% 38% 30% -1 +1 1.02 49% 1.5 .72 9% .49 76% .37
Nov
18		 SMU F A+ F F F+ 39% 23% 39% B- D- D+ F F D C+ F D+ D+ F D+ F F+ 36% 19% 46% D F+ A C+ A- C F C- F
0.75 73% 15% 18% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.2 .04 21% .28 56% .16 1.32 76% 45% 44% +15 0 1.32 30% 1.0 .30 15% .38 77% .29
Nov
20		 Marshall F B+ C- F D- 17% 50% 33% F F F+ C- D F+ A A- A+ F F B- F F 32% 26% 42% C F B A+ A+ F+ F+ F F
0.91 67% 35% 24% -5 -5 0.81 26% 0.9 .23 21% .43 77% .33 1.28 78% 33% 54% +18 -1 1.35 28% 0.6 .16 14% .32 81% .26
Nov
23		 Miami (OH) C- F C- F+ F 44% 21% 34% B- F D- A+ A A A- A A F C- C- F F 56% 9% 35% F F C C- C F F F F
1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30 1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39
Dec
3		 Illinois-Chicago F B- F C C- 46% 18% 36% B- C F+ B+ D+ C F F F A+ A B A+ A+ 61% 12% 27% F A+ D A B A F+ C- D-
0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11 0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29
Dec
6		 DePaul C- C- A+ A A+ 31% 33% 35% D- A F D F F+ F A+ F B A- A A+ A+ 49% 16% 36% F A+ A- F D+ F F C F
0.97 53% 56% 42% +9 -2 1.15 17% 0.8 .14 23% .12 86% .11 1.03 50% 29% 13% -17 +1 0.71 24% 1.7 .41 9% .61 71% .43
Dec
10		 Tulsa C+ A+ C- D- B+ 39% 17% 44% C+ B+ C- A- C+ F+ B+ A+ A+ F D B F F 49% 5% 45% D F D- F F D F D F
1.09 81% 33% 29% +5 +1 1.13 24% 1.3 .31 19% .34 86% .29 1.51 63% 33% 48% +12 +3 1.31 37% 1.8 .67 13% .55 84% .46
Jan
3		 Alabama A&M A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% D- A A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F D B- A+ C 44% 20% 36% F+ C- F D F D+ F F F
1.49 63% 38% 56% +13 -1 1.27 54% 1.2 .65 16% .48 81% .39 1.30 60% 33% 25% -5 +1 0.93 56% 1.1 .63 16% .52 82% .43
Jan
5		 Alabama St. B- F A+ A+ B- 48% 16% 36% C+ B- B- F D D- A+ A- A+ D C- C+ C C- 41% 27% 32% C C- A F C- F+ F D F
1.20 33% 71% 56% +6 +1 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 21% .70 83% .58 1.05 57% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 15% .41 73% .30
Jan
10		 Texas Southern D+ A F B B- 44% 18% 38% C B- F F F B- F D+ F B B- C+ A+ A+ 52% 21% 27% F A- C C+ C D+ F C+ F+
1.07 73% 22% 37% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.9 .19 14% .27 69% .19 0.95 52% 36% 14% -11 +1 0.81 27% 1.0 .27 16% .39 70% .27
Jan
12		 Prairie View F F F F+ F 35% 23% 42% D F F+ F F D+ B- F D+ C- A F+ F F+ 33% 38% 29% B- D- F A- D+ F F A+ D-
0.88 41% 18% 30% -13 -1 0.75 30% 0.8 .25 20% .42 61% .25 1.05 44% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.8 .26 10% .50 61% .30
Jan
17		 Florida A&M F+ B D- F+ D- 33% 28% 40% F F+ F A+ B- C- B- A- B+ F+ F A+ C- F 38% 19% 43% D F F F F B F C F
1.02 64% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.95 18% 2.0 .36 20% .36 84% .30 1.08 81% 13% 33% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 24% .48 67% .32
Jan
19		 Bethune-Cookman D+ C A+ C B 46% 24% 30% D+ B- F+ C D- F A+ D+ A+ D B- A+ A+ A 61% 13% 26% F B F F F A- F D- F
1.04 57% 50% 33% +2 0 1.06 24% 1.1 .26 22% .48 70% .34 1.10 54% 17% 25% -9 +3 0.89 42% 1.3 .53 22% .66 73% .48
Jan
24		 Southern C- F+ C- C- F+ 31% 18% 51% C D- F A+ C- B- A+ D A C F D+ A+ B 30% 28% 41% C+ B F F F B- F F F
1.08 50% 38% 35% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.8 .34 17% .49 71% .35 1.07 71% 38% 16% -7 -2 0.85 42% 1.4 .58 19% .46 77% .36
Jan
31		 Mississippi Valley D- D+ F A F+ 37% 37% 26% F F F D F B- A+ D- A+ D D+ F A+ F+ 38% 42% 20% C- D- A F D C F F F
1.10 59% 29% 42% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.1 .29 15% .56 71% .40 0.98 59% 47% 22% +1 -3 0.98 17% 1.6 .28 21% .50 79% .39
Feb
4		 Grambling St. D D+ F D- F+ 39% 24% 37% D- F+ F+ A+ B- C B C- B B- D F A+ A 40% 19% 40% C- A- F C D- D- A- C B+
0.99 56% 27% 29% -6 0 0.89 26% 1.4 .38 19% .38 71% .27 0.95 62% 50% 10% -11 0 0.81 37% 0.9 .34 18% .27 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Alcorn St. B- D+ A A+ A 45% 14% 40% C A- C- B+ C+ F A+ A- A+ F C+ C F F 40% 24% 36% C- F B F F F+ C F D
1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37 1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20
Feb
9		 Jackson St. B D A+ A+ A 37% 27% 37% D- B+ D- D- F+ A B- A A- C+ A+ D A+ A- 18% 37% 45% A+ A F F F C- C- A+ C+
1.28 56% 54% 50% +12 -1 1.24 30% 0.9 .27 11% .36 81% .29 0.96 33% 42% 22% -11 -4 0.73 37% 1.3 .49 18% .28 67% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.1 4.7 2.3 10.4 1st
2nd 0.9 13.0 21.3 8.8 1.3 45.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 6.2 14.1 4.4 0.2 24.9 3rd
4th 0.5 7.5 2.2 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 2.0 3.4 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 0.4 2.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 5.5 18.5 29.7 28.9 13.6 3.6 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 63.1% 2.3    1.1 1.2 0.0
13-5 34.7% 4.7    1.2 2.9 0.6 0.0
12-6 10.7% 3.1    0.3 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 2.5 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.6% 17.2% 17.2% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.0
13-5 13.6% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6 12.0
12-6 28.9% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 0.0 2.9 26.0
11-7 29.7% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 2.4 27.3
10-8 18.5% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 1.1 17.3
9-9 5.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 5.3
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 16.0 91.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 15.3 6.4 55.3 38.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%