Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#200
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#302
Pace69.4#188
Improvement-0.3#196

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#187
First Shot-3.7#287
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#34
Layup/Dunks-1.8#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#226
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#289
Freethrows+1.8#78
Improvement+1.0#105

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#217
First Shot+0.2#162
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#312
Layups/Dunks+1.9#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#293
Freethrows-0.8#244
Improvement-1.3#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 3.7% 7.8% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 13.0% 23.4% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.6% 10.2% 24.2%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 32.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 33 - 94 - 17
Quad 46 - 310 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 296 Detroit Mercy W 91-71 77%     1 - 0 +9.8 +2.1 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 7 154 @Oregon St. L 73-76 29%     1 - 1 +0.4 +2.9 -2.6
  Sat, Nov 15 336 @Chicago St. W 67-63 69%     2 - 1 -3.7 -2.9 -0.4
  Thu, Nov 20 101 High Point L 80-90 23%     2 - 2 -4.7 +3.0 -7.3
  Sat, Nov 22 339 Southern Indiana W 84-73 80%     3 - 2 -0.4 +3.9 -4.8
  Wed, Nov 26 185 @Robert Morris L 74-88 36%     3 - 3 -12.7 +4.1 -17.3
  Wed, Dec 3 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62-63 89%     3 - 4 -16.8 -19.1 +2.4
  Sun, Dec 7 76 @Yale L 66-80 12%     3 - 5 -3.7 -1.6 -3.2
  Sat, Dec 13 69 @Belmont L 84-87 11%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +8.0 +23.8 -16.1
  Wed, Dec 17 93 Northern Iowa L 54-60 30%     3 - 7 0 - 2 -3.0 -4.9 +1.0
  Sun, Dec 21 183 @Charlotte L 76-88 OT 36%     3 - 8 -10.7 +0.9 -11.3
  Thu, Jan 1 100 Murray St. L 79-84 33%    
  Sun, Jan 4 219 @Valparaiso L 71-73 44%    
  Wed, Jan 7 130 Southern Illinois L 75-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 82 @Illinois St. L 68-80 12%    
  Tue, Jan 13 93 @Northern Iowa L 59-70 14%    
  Sat, Jan 17 143 Drake L 71-72 47%    
  Tue, Jan 20 252 Evansville W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Jan 24 108 @Bradley L 68-77 19%    
  Tue, Jan 27 201 Indiana St. W 77-74 61%    
  Sat, Jan 31 130 @Southern Illinois L 72-79 25%    
  Tue, Feb 3 100 @Murray St. L 76-87 16%    
  Fri, Feb 6 69 Belmont L 75-82 25%    
  Thu, Feb 12 143 @Drake L 68-75 27%    
  Sun, Feb 15 82 Illinois St. L 71-77 28%    
  Wed, Feb 18 252 @Evansville L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 219 Valparaiso W 74-70 65%    
  Tue, Feb 24 108 Bradley L 71-74 38%    
  Sun, Mar 1 201 @Indiana St. L 74-77 40%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 2.8 0.9 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.4 4.3 1.4 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.6 7.7 5.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 20.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 5.6 7.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 20.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.7 6.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 17.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.8 2.9 1.1 0.1 11.7 11th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.2 6.3 10.4 13.8 15.3 14.9 12.7 9.3 6.3 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 22.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 17.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 15.0% 15.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 6.2% 6.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.8% 7.9% 7.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-8 1.9% 4.8% 4.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
11-9 3.6% 2.3% 2.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
10-10 6.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.2
9-11 9.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.2
8-12 12.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.6
7-13 14.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.8
6-14 15.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.2
5-15 13.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.8
4-16 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.4
3-17 6.3% 6.3
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%