Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.4 137
Expected Predictive Rating +0.3 156
Pace 66.6 238
Improvement +6.9 7

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #190 D+ B D+ B- C
Defense C+ #101 B- D+ A- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 91 54% 280 +0.2 171
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 135 38% 167 +0.8 132
Three Pointers 36% 296 31% 277 -4.0 315
1st FG Attempt 0.96 269 -3.1 269
Second Chance 36.2% 40 1.03 169 0.37 66
Turnovers 18.2% 267
Freethrows 0.33 102 72% 192 0.24 118
Total Offense -1.0 190

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 290 55% 100 +3.1 76
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 272 34% 51 +1.8 54
Three Pointers 48% 26 33% 122 -2.5 295
1st FG Attempt 0.97 97 +2.4 97
Second Chance 36.3% 344 0.96 84 0.35 269
Turnovers 20.7% 21
Freethrows 0.31 210 75% 306 0.23 240
Total Defense +2.4 101

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.0 194 +0.1 188
Shot Type Accuracy -3.0 292 -2.5 79
Possession Length 17.8 234 17.5 225
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 124 0.19 249
Improvement +1.4 #108 +5.5 #6

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.9 13.7
.500 or above 53% 71% 36%
.500 or above in Conference 93% 98% 87%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 7% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 34 - 88 - 14
Quad 47 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 271 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 84% +6  60% 1 - 0 B +11 C- -1 C- A F A- +9 A B+ B
 Fri, Nov 7 178 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 48% -3  28% 1 - 1 C -1 C- -0 B D F C -1 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 353 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 87% -2  33% 2 - 1 D+ -7 D- -7 F A+ D- C+ +0 D- D+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 92 High Point L 80 - 90 35% -6  2% 2 - 2 C- -5 C +1 C- A+ D- D -6 D+ C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 22 340 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 89% +11  99% 3 - 2 C -1 C+ +3 B- D+ F+ D+ -4 F C+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 204 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 54% -13  0% 3 - 3 D- -14 C +1 D- A D+ F -15 D F B
 Wed, Dec 3 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 89% -5  8% 3 - 4 D- -13 F -22 F D- F A- +9 C D B
 Sun, Dec 7 81 @Yale L 66 - 80 21% -4  33% 3 - 5 C- -4 D -4 F C- B C -1 A+ F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 78 @Belmont L 84 - 87 20% +3  60% 3 - 6 0 - 1 B- +7 A+ +19 A- B+ A+ F -12 F D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 100 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 47% -2  36% 3 - 7 0 - 2 C- -4 D- -8 F B+ B+ B- +3 D+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 168 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 46% +2  63% 3 - 8 D -10 C- -2 C+ F+ D- D- -7 C+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 1 112 Murray St. L 77 - 81 54% +1  48% 3 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 D -5 D- B F C+ +2 A+ F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 155 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 44% +1  49% 3 - 10 0 - 4 C- -4 D -6 D B F C+ +1 B B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 127 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 59% +8  88% 4 - 10 1 - 4 B+ +12 B- +4 F+ A+ A A- +9 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 94 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 25% +1  52% 5 - 10 2 - 4 B+ +12 D- -7 F A+ F A+ +19 A+ C B-
 Tue, Jan 13 100 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 26% +0  38% 6 - 10 3 - 4 A- +16 A- +11 A B A+ B+ +6 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 177 Drake W 74 - 67 70% +7  95% 7 - 10 4 - 4 C+ +3 C- -1 F A- B- B- +4 B B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 20 273 Evansville W 76 - 49 84% +13  86% 8 - 10 5 - 4 A +18 C +1 C+ B A- A+ +18 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 120 @Bradley W 85 - 70 34% +8  76% 9 - 10 6 - 4 A +21 A+ +18 A+ C A B- +4 C C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 197 Indiana St. W 76 - 74 75% +9  94% 10 - 10 7 - 4 C- -3 C +1 B+ D D+ D+ -5 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 127 @Southern Illinois W 68 - 66 36% -6  26% 11 - 10 8 - 4 B- +7 C+ +3 F+ A+ F B- +4 C A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 112 @Murray St. L 74 - 81 31% -8  0% 11 - 11 8 - 5 C -1 D- -7 F+ C+ C B+ +7 A- F A
 Fri, Feb 6 78 Belmont L 62 - 68 39% -9  0% 11 - 12 8 - 6 C -2 D- -7 C F C+ B +5 C- A A+
 Thu, Feb 12 177 @Drake L 71 - 72 48%
 Sun, Feb 15 94 Illinois St. L 69 - 70 47%
 Wed, Feb 18 273 @Evansville W 72 - 67 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 155 Valparaiso W 70 - 66 66%
 Tue, Feb 24 120 Bradley W 72 - 70 57%
 Sun, Mar 1 197 @Indiana St. W 73 - 72 54%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 9 +1 C- -1 D+ B D+ C+ +2 B- D+ A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C D+ D+ 42% 23% 36% C D+ B+ C B D+ B- C B- C+ B- B C+ B- 35% 18% 48% C B- F+ B- D+ A- C D C-
1.07 54% 38% 31% -3 0 0.96 36% 1.0 .37 18% .33 72% .24 1.05 55% 34% 33% -2 0 0.97 36% 1.0 .35 21% .31 75% .25
Nov
3		 Detroit Mercy C- F D+ A+ C 35% 18% 47% D+ C- C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ A- C C- A+ A+ 15% 25% 59% C- A F+ A+ B+ B D+ C+ D+
1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47 0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23
Nov
7		 Oregon St. C- B- A+ C- B 31% 10% 58% C B C- F+ D F B+ A+ A+ C F+ F D+ F 27% 20% 54% B D- F B+ F A+ F D+ F
1.06 60% 60% 32% +1 +1 1.06 30% 0.8 .24 20% .38 86% .33 1.10 64% 50% 36% +6 -1 1.12 54% 1.1 .57 30% .52 80% .42
Nov
15		 Chicago St. D- C- F F F 53% 10% 38% B+ F B+ A+ A+ D- A+ C- A+ C+ F C+ B D- 33% 30% 37% D+ D- F+ B- D+ B- D C D
1.06 62% 25% 13% -11 +2 0.85 43% 1.4 .60 22% .57 75% .42 0.99 67% 36% 29% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .29 17% .31 75% .23
Nov
20		 High Point C A+ C- F C 33% 23% 44% D C- A+ C+ A+ D- A+ C- A+ D C+ A+ F D+ 39% 11% 50% C D+ D A- C+ B+ F F+ F
1.10 81% 36% 24% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .55 25% .44 71% .31 1.23 59% 20% 41% +4 +1 1.11 34% 1.0 .34 16% .61 81% .49
Nov
22		 Southern Indiana C+ C A+ C- C+ 60% 13% 27% A- B- B- F D+ F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F A+ F 38% 9% 53% F F F A C+ B- D A+ A-
1.14 59% 50% 33% +2 +2 1.11 35% 0.7 .26 19% .55 85% .47 0.99 64% 80% 23% -3 +2 0.98 35% 0.6 .21 19% .34 40% .13
Nov
26		 Robert Morris C F A+ B+ F 60% 10% 31% A D- A+ D+ A D+ A+ F B+ F D A+ D- D+ 43% 10% 47% F D F F F B D- F F
1.09 40% 50% 38% -7 +3 0.93 47% 0.9 .42 18% .59 58% .34 1.30 62% 0% 39% +1 +2 1.08 48% 1.4 .70 21% .30 81% .24
Dec
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F F D+ F F 61% 12% 27% A F B F D- F B- C- C+ A- D+ A+ C+ B- 46% 18% 36% F C D+ D D B A A+ A+
0.86 43% 33% 15% -17 +3 0.73 40% 0.8 .33 24% .40 73% .29 0.87 61% 11% 33% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.1 .31 21% .21 50% .11
Dec
7		 Yale D F F A- F 37% 27% 37% D+ F B+ F C- B C+ A+ A- C A A+ D+ A+ 35% 27% 38% A A+ D- F F D+ F D- F
1.01 28% 31% 39% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.8 .27 12% .30 88% .26 1.23 47% 15% 39% -7 -1 0.85 38% 1.5 .56 14% .50 82% .41
Dec
13		 Belmont A+ B- C- A+ A 20% 24% 56% D- A- A C B+ A+ D+ A+ B F C- F F F 40% 5% 56% D+ F F A+ D+ B+ F D- F
1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23 1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32
Dec
17		 Northern Iowa D- D F F F 48% 16% 36% B+ F B+ B B+ B+ D F D- B- B- D- F F+ 21% 26% 52% A+ D+ F A+ C+ A+ C F D
0.88 50% 13% 17% -17 +1 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 15% .21 64% .13 0.98 56% 45% 41% +7 -2 1.12 29% 0.8 .21 24% .24 82% .19
Dec
21		 Charlotte C- F A+ A+ C+ 42% 19% 38% B- C+ B+ F F+ D- B- D C+ D- B B- D B- 45% 12% 43% D C+ F A+ B C- F F F
1.07 41% 50% 45% +1 0 1.06 37% 0.6 .23 18% .36 67% .24 1.23 55% 33% 38% +1 +2 1.06 47% 0.6 .26 18% .60 86% .51
Jan
1		 Murray St. D D F A- D 42% 38% 21% F+ D- A D B F A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ B- A+ 35% 29% 37% A A+ F F F B+ D F F
1.05 50% 28% 40% -5 -2 0.88 44% 0.9 .41 20% .45 81% .36 1.10 44% 20% 32% -11 -1 0.77 43% 1.4 .62 19% .37 86% .32
Jan
4		 Valparaiso D B+ B+ F C- 36% 36% 29% F D B- B B F B+ D- B- C+ A- A+ F B 39% 34% 26% C B C+ C+ B- B F F+ F
0.95 67% 40% 17% -4 -2 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 26% .37 65% .24 1.06 47% 15% 50% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.0 .30 18% .78 78% .61
Jan
7		 Southern Illinois B- F F F F 51% 15% 34% A- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A F B A- B F B- C- 41% 25% 33% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 46% 29% 25% -12 +2 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 14% .40 64% .25 0.88 52% 62% 29% +1 0 1.04 17% 0.6 .10 23% .08 50% .04
Jan
10		 Illinois St. D- F C+ F F 40% 40% 19% D- F A- A+ A+ F F A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 15% 58% C- A+ D B C B- F F F
0.91 43% 38% 10% -13 -2 0.71 33% 1.7 .56 22% .20 91% .18 0.85 43% 13% 19% -21 0 0.60 32% 1.0 .32 17% .38 77% .30
Jan
13		 Northern Iowa A- A+ A F A 45% 27% 29% C- A F+ A+ B A+ B+ F C- B+ C B+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 48% C A+ F D F B+ F+ F F
1.10 73% 46% 21% +3 0 1.08 17% 1.6 .28 10% .32 56% .18 0.97 59% 33% 14% -14 +1 0.75 33% 1.2 .39 18% .31 88% .27
Jan
17		 Drake C- F F C F 28% 23% 50% C- F B A A- B- A+ D- A+ B- A+ F A- B- 25% 25% 49% B+ B C A+ B+ C+ C- A+ B+
1.12 45% 22% 35% -6 -1 0.88 35% 1.2 .41 14% .66 63% .42 1.01 38% 69% 28% -1 -2 0.96 26% 0.8 .21 15% .32 56% .18
Jan
20		 Evansville C A+ B+ F C+ 43% 29% 27% C C+ C+ B+ B A- B+ F C A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 25% 11% 64% F A+ F A+ B+ A+ B F C
1.13 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 13% .34 60% .21 0.73 45% 40% 25% -11 0 0.80 31% 0.5 .17 28% .25 83% .21
Jan
24		 Bradley A+ A B A+ A+ 20% 43% 37% F A+ B- D+ C A D A C B- F+ F A C 34% 19% 47% C- C A- F C+ C- D- B- D
1.30 70% 43% 56% +16 -4 1.27 34% 0.9 .31 15% .29 81% .23 1.07 69% 44% 27% 0 0 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 14% .39 73% .28
Jan
27		 Indiana St. C C C A+ B+ 45% 24% 31% C+ B+ B- F D D+ A+ B- A D+ F F C+ F 43% 7% 50% C F+ F F+ F A+ A A+ A+
1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26 1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Southern Illinois C+ C- F F F 47% 16% 37% B+ F+ A+ C- A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- A- A- F C 47% 26% 28% D C A+ A+ A+ D+ F D- F
1.03 55% 29% 19% -11 +1 0.81 49% 1.0 .49 26% .53 81% .43 1.00 50% 33% 46% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.4 .06 15% .39 73% .29
Feb
3		 Murray St. D- F F C+ F+ 38% 25% 36% C- F+ D- A+ C+ C A+ F A- B+ A+ F B A 35% 14% 51% C- A- C+ F F A D B D+
0.99 43% 29% 35% -8 -1 0.85 27% 1.4 .38 16% .46 59% .27 1.08 44% 57% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.7 .53 21% .37 73% .27
Feb
6		 Belmont D- B- A+ F C+ 39% 27% 34% C- C B- F F C+ A F+ B+ B D+ A+ F D+ 21% 9% 70% A- C- C- A+ A A+ D A+ C+
0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25 1.07 67% 25% 43% +11 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 2.9 9.3 3.7 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.9 12.2 5.1 0.1 18.3 3rd
4th 0.1 7.6 10.2 0.4 18.3 4th
5th 2.4 13.8 2.4 0.0 18.6 5th
6th 0.8 9.2 6.0 0.1 16.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.9 5.1 0.3 9.3 7th
8th 0.7 1.7 0.2 2.5 8th
9th 0.3 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.0 6.3 17.0 28.5 27.7 15.0 4.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 13.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 4.4% 11.2% 11.2% 12.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.9
13-7 15.0% 10.3% 10.3% 12.4 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.0 13.5
12-8 27.7% 6.1% 6.1% 13.2 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 26.0
11-9 28.5% 4.7% 4.7% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 27.2
10-10 17.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 16.3
9-11 6.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 6.3
8-12 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 13.3 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.0 14.3 71.4 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 0.5%