Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #151
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #204
Pace 67.3 #229
Improvement +7.6 #4

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #202 D B+ C- C+ C
Defense #113 B D+ A- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 1.05 #299 -0.2 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #136 0.76 #174 +0.8 #139
Three Pointers 36% #296 0.91 #307 -4.7 #322
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #293 -4.1 #294
Freethrows 18.4 #147 73% #164 13.5 #139
Second Chance 36.4% #38 1.10 #110 0.40 #45
Turnovers 17.4% #246
Total Offense -1.2 #202

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.09 #95 +3.2 #77
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #266 0.65 #37 +1.9 #45
Three Pointers 47% #37 0.97 #117 -2.0 #277
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #80 +3.1 #79
Freethrows 18.4 #225 77% #346 14.1 #277
Second Chance 37.5% #355 0.94 #49 0.35 #259
Turnovers 19.4% #42
Total Defense +1.8 #113

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #196 0.2% #179
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.1% #310 -6.3% #71
Possession Length 17.9 #230 17.5 #214
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #167 0.21 #311
Improvement +1.8 #88 +5.8 #5

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 5.5% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 25.5% 42.5% 17.8%
.500 or above in Conference 61.5% 80.1% 53.1%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.7% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round3.8% 5.5% 3.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 43 - 5
Quad 34 - 107 - 15
Quad 47 - 214 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 286 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 84% +6  1 - 0 +10 +2 C- A+ F +6 A A- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 195 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 49% -3  1 - 1 -2 +1 B- D- F -3 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 357 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 86% -2  2 - 1 -7 -4 F A+ F -3 D- B- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 98 High Point L 80 - 90 32% -6  2 - 2 -5 +3 D+ A+ F -8 C- B- A-
 Sat, Nov 22 329 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 85% +11  3 - 2 +0 +5 C+ C F -6 F C B
 Wed, Nov 26 200 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 50% -13  3 - 3 -14 +2 F A+ D -16 D F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 90% -5  3 - 4 -15 -20 F D- F +5 C D- A-
 Sun, Dec 7 83 @Yale L 66 - 80 18% -4  3 - 5 -4 -1 F C- B -4 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 13 82 @Belmont L 84 - 87 18% +3  3 - 6 0 - 1 +7 +23 A A- A+ -16 F D- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 110 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 49% -2  3 - 7 0 - 2 -5 -6 F A- A- -1 D- C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 173 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 45% +9  3 - 8 -10 +0 C+ F F -10 B+ B C+
 Thu, Jan 1 97 Murray St. L 77 - 81 43% +1  3 - 9 0 - 3 -2 -1 D B+ F -0 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 167 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 43% +1  3 - 10 0 - 4 -5 -3 D+ B+ F -2 B+ C B
 Wed, Jan 7 146 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 60% +8  4 - 10 1 - 4 +11 +5 F A+ A +7 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 90 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 20% +1  5 - 10 2 - 4 +13 -4 F A+ F +18 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Jan 13 110 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 27% +0  6 - 10 3 - 4 +15 +13 A+ B A+ +3 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 158 Drake W 74 - 67 63% +7  7 - 10 4 - 4 +4 +4 F A+ B- +0 B+ A- C
 Tue, Jan 20 271 Evansville W 76 - 49 82% +13  8 - 10 5 - 4 +18 +5 C+ B+ A +14 A+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 24 119 @Bradley L 69 - 74 31%
 Tue, Jan 27 188 Indiana St. W 76 - 71 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 146 @Southern Illinois L 69 - 72 37%
 Tue, Feb 3 97 @Murray St. L 75 - 83 23%
 Fri, Feb 6 82 Belmont L 73 - 77 37%
 Thu, Feb 12 158 @Drake L 69 - 72 40%
 Sun, Feb 15 90 Illinois St. L 69 - 72 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 271 @Evansville W 70 - 66 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 167 Valparaiso W 70 - 66 66%
 Tue, Feb 24 119 Bradley W 72 - 71 53%
 Sun, Mar 1 188 @Indiana St. L 73 - 74 47%
Totals 13 - 16 10 - 10 +1 -1 D B+ C- +2 B D+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 1.1 6.8 5.9 0.8 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 7.9 8.8 1.5 0.0 19.4 5th
6th 0.7 6.8 9.4 2.2 0.1 19.1 6th
7th 0.2 4.1 8.1 2.5 0.1 14.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 5.5 2.5 0.2 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.2 5.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.3 1.8 5.7 12.1 18.6 21.0 18.7 12.5 6.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 94.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 60.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 23.5% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 20.4% 20.4% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-6 2.3% 11.8% 11.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
13-7 6.4% 9.4% 9.4% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.8
12-8 12.5% 6.9% 6.9% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 11.7
11-9 18.7% 4.5% 4.5% 14.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 17.9
10-10 21.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 20.4
9-11 18.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.1 0.2 18.3
8-12 12.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.0
7-13 5.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.7
6-14 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 13.9 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%