Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#143
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#102
Pace70.9#114
Improvement+3.6#40

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#132
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#120
Layup/Dunks+0.7#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#137
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement+1.2#109

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#187
First Shot-0.5#195
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#165
Layups/Dunks-4.2#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#99
Freethrows+1.3#89
Improvement+2.4#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.4% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 93.3% 96.7% 86.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 94.5% 79.3%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.7% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.3% 7.3% 4.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 37 - 510 - 10
Quad 47 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 88   Yale W 91-79 41%     1 - 0 +15.7 +10.5 +4.1
  Nov 12, 2024 55   @ Northwestern L 74-83 14%     1 - 1 +3.8 +7.1 -3.0
  Nov 21, 2024 149   James Madison L 81-99 52%     1 - 2 -17.0 +2.4 -18.0
  Nov 22, 2024 191   La Salle W 96-83 61%     2 - 2 +11.7 +15.8 -5.1
  Nov 23, 2024 164   East Carolina L 55-72 55%     2 - 3 -16.9 -12.3 -6.1
  Dec 04, 2024 113   Northern Iowa L 56-83 55%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -26.8 -10.6 -19.9
  Dec 08, 2024 274   Dartmouth W 69-68 OT 84%     3 - 4 -8.2 -17.0 +8.7
  Dec 15, 2024 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 77-69 OT 62%     4 - 4 +6.4 +4.5 +1.7
  Dec 20, 2024 150   @ Seattle W 79-68 41%     5 - 4 +14.7 +5.6 +8.7
  Dec 29, 2024 144   @ Illinois St. W 73-67 40%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +10.1 +6.7 +4.1
  Jan 01, 2025 80   Drake W 74-70 39%     7 - 4 2 - 1 +8.4 +17.6 -8.4
  Jan 04, 2025 139   @ Belmont L 87-92 39%     7 - 5 2 - 2 -0.7 +5.6 -5.9
  Jan 07, 2025 244   @ Missouri St. W 80-63 62%     8 - 5 3 - 2 +15.2 +18.7 -1.0
  Jan 11, 2025 73   Bradley L 60-61 37%     8 - 6 3 - 3 +3.9 -8.3 +12.1
  Jan 15, 2025 142   Murray St. W 97-93 2OT 60%     9 - 6 4 - 3 +2.7 +3.6 -1.7
  Jan 18, 2025 214   @ Valparaiso W 81-74 56%     10 - 6 5 - 3 +6.9 +8.1 -1.2
  Jan 22, 2025 261   @ Evansville W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 190   Southern Illinois W 76-71 71%    
  Jan 29, 2025 73   @ Bradley L 68-77 19%    
  Feb 01, 2025 213   Indiana St. W 86-79 75%    
  Feb 05, 2025 144   Illinois St. W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 190   @ Southern Illinois L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 142   @ Murray St. L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 16, 2025 244   Missouri St. W 75-66 80%    
  Feb 19, 2025 80   @ Drake L 62-70 20%    
  Feb 22, 2025 261   Evansville W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 26, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 72-76 34%    
  Mar 02, 2025 214   Valparaiso W 79-72 75%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.4 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 6.2 9.8 4.9 0.7 22.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 6.6 10.7 5.2 0.7 0.0 23.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.9 8.9 4.4 0.5 0.0 17.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.2 3.3 0.3 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.7 0.2 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.3 3.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.9 7.1 13.7 19.9 21.8 18.0 10.2 4.3 1.0 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 93.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 71.3% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.0% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 4.9% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.0% 12.9% 11.9% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.1%
15-5 4.3% 15.5% 15.5% 12.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 3.7
14-6 10.2% 10.9% 10.9% 12.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 9.1
13-7 18.0% 9.5% 9.5% 12.7 0.6 1.0 0.2 16.3
12-8 21.8% 6.7% 6.7% 12.9 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 20.3
11-9 19.9% 4.0% 4.0% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 19.1
10-10 13.7% 2.4% 2.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.4
9-11 7.1% 1.4% 1.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.0
8-12 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 2.9
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 12.8 0.1 2.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 93.7 0.0%