Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#139
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#96
Pace76.2#26
Improvement-1.2#236

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#92
First Shot+3.7#78
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#211
Layup/Dunks+0.3#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#29
Freethrows-2.8#330
Improvement-1.0#250

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#235
First Shot-1.9#239
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#170
Layups/Dunks-0.6#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#255
Freethrows+2.1#50
Improvement-0.2#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 9.0% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 12.8
.500 or above 99.3% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 98.9% 92.9%
Conference Champion 8.2% 16.2% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.0% 9.0% 5.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 39 - 411 - 10
Quad 410 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 151   Furman L 74-76 63%     0 - 1 -3.8 +0.2 -4.0
  Nov 12, 2024 91   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 24%     1 - 1 +9.9 +12.2 -2.3
  Nov 15, 2024 275   @ Air Force W 79-71 69%     2 - 1 +4.3 +12.5 -7.4
  Nov 19, 2024 311   Oral Roberts W 90-80 88%     3 - 1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1
  Nov 26, 2024 152   Loyola Marymount L 63-77 53%     3 - 2 -13.2 -10.2 -2.4
  Nov 27, 2024 148   Tulane W 89-66 52%     4 - 2 +24.1 +18.3 +6.3
  Nov 29, 2024 239   Gardner-Webb W 83-74 79%     5 - 2 +1.9 +0.7 +0.6
  Dec 04, 2024 144   Illinois St. W 99-97 OT 61%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +0.6 +9.0 -8.6
  Dec 07, 2024 111   Middle Tennessee W 82-79 55%     7 - 2 +3.4 +7.1 -3.8
  Dec 14, 2024 209   @ Richmond W 93-86 55%     8 - 2 +7.3 +14.5 -7.7
  Dec 19, 2024 60   UC Irvine L 84-92 32%     8 - 3 -1.5 +10.4 -11.1
  Dec 29, 2024 80   @ Drake L 46-65 21%     8 - 4 1 - 1 -9.1 -12.1 -0.8
  Jan 01, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 70-76 34%     8 - 5 1 - 2 -0.3 -4.0 +3.9
  Jan 04, 2025 143   Illinois-Chicago W 92-87 61%     9 - 5 2 - 2 +3.7 +8.9 -5.7
  Jan 08, 2025 190   Southern Illinois W 90-86 71%     10 - 5 3 - 2 +0.0 +15.8 -15.9
  Jan 11, 2025 213   @ Indiana St. W 84-79 56%     11 - 5 4 - 2 +5.0 +2.2 +2.4
  Jan 14, 2025 214   Valparaiso W 71-64 75%     12 - 5 5 - 2 +1.4 -9.4 +10.4
  Jan 18, 2025 261   @ Evansville W 85-82 67%     13 - 5 6 - 2 +0.1 +15.9 -15.7
  Jan 21, 2025 73   Bradley L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 25, 2025 142   @ Murray St. L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 144   @ Illinois St. L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 02, 2025 261   Evansville W 79-69 83%    
  Feb 05, 2025 73   @ Bradley L 72-81 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 244   Missouri St. W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 12, 2025 214   @ Valparaiso W 81-79 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 190   @ Southern Illinois W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 113   Northern Iowa W 78-77 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 213   Indiana St. W 91-84 75%    
  Feb 26, 2025 244   @ Missouri St. W 76-73 61%    
  Mar 02, 2025 142   Murray St. W 76-73 61%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.8 1.1 0.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.8 5.3 1.4 0.1 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 7.1 12.7 8.4 1.7 0.1 31.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.1 9.1 4.2 0.4 0.0 19.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 6.3 2.9 0.3 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.6 2.3 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 1.4 0.2 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 8.3 15.0 19.5 20.2 16.7 9.9 4.3 1.2 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 93.3% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 65.3% 2.8    1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 29.1% 2.9    0.8 1.5 0.6 0.0
14-6 6.7% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 3.1 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
17-3 1.2% 13.4% 13.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 1.0
16-4 4.3% 15.6% 15.6% 12.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 3.6
15-5 9.9% 14.7% 14.7% 12.4 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 8.4
14-6 16.7% 9.7% 9.7% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 15.1
13-7 20.2% 7.2% 7.2% 12.8 0.5 0.8 0.2 18.7
12-8 19.5% 4.9% 4.9% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 18.5
11-9 15.0% 2.7% 2.7% 13.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 14.6
10-10 8.3% 1.9% 1.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2
9-11 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 3.5
8-12 1.0% 1.0
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 12.7 0.2 2.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 93.0 0.0%