Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#151
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#171
Pace75.5#44
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#141
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 9.2% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 64.1% 72.5% 47.5%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 70.0% 54.9%
Conference Champion 8.7% 10.6% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 3.1% 6.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round7.7% 9.1% 5.0%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 78 - 11
Quad 49 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 148   Furman L 74-76 61%     0 - 1 -4.0 -0.5 -3.5
  Nov 12, 2024 143   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 38%     1 - 1 +5.2 +7.4 -2.2
  Nov 15, 2024 286   @ Air Force W 72-67 66%    
  Nov 19, 2024 245   Oral Roberts W 82-74 78%    
  Nov 26, 2024 164   Loyola Marymount W 73-72 53%    
  Nov 29, 2024 217   Gardner-Webb W 81-74 73%    
  Dec 04, 2024 173   Illinois St. W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 07, 2024 129   Middle Tennessee W 74-72 57%    
  Dec 14, 2024 184   @ Richmond L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 19, 2024 60   UC Irvine L 72-77 34%    
  Dec 29, 2024 98   @ Drake L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 01, 2025 128   @ Northern Iowa L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 162   Illinois-Chicago W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 161   Southern Illinois W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 207   @ Indiana St. W 80-79 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 278   Valparaiso W 81-71 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 248   @ Evansville W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 21, 2025 90   Bradley L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 173   @ Illinois St. L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 02, 2025 248   Evansville W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 90   @ Bradley L 71-79 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 195   Missouri St. W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 12, 2025 278   @ Valparaiso W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 161   @ Southern Illinois L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 19, 2025 128   Northern Iowa W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 207   Indiana St. W 83-76 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 195   @ Missouri St. L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 136   Murray St. W 74-71 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 8.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.4 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.4 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.7 2.7 0.6 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.4 2.8 4.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.6 6.5 8.4 9.7 11.2 11.3 10.9 9.5 8.0 6.3 3.7 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.4% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 94.1% 1.1    0.9 0.1
17-3 82.8% 2.0    1.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 58.6% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1
15-5 30.7% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 10.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-7 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 5.2 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 75.9% 44.8% 31.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.3%
19-1 0.4% 54.8% 42.7% 12.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.1%
18-2 1.1% 35.9% 33.5% 2.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.6%
17-3 2.4% 35.8% 35.0% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.3%
16-4 3.7% 25.0% 24.9% 0.1% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 2.8 0.1%
15-5 6.3% 17.7% 17.7% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.2
14-6 8.0% 14.8% 14.8% 13.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.8
13-7 9.5% 11.6% 11.6% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 8.4
12-8 10.9% 7.3% 7.3% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.1
11-9 11.3% 4.6% 4.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.8
10-10 11.2% 2.8% 2.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9
9-11 9.7% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.6
8-12 8.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
7-13 6.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 4.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.6
5-15 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-16 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.8% 7.7% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.2 92.2 0.1%