Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#129
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#93
Pace76.2#30
Improvement+0.2#171

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#80
First Shot+4.3#63
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#222
Layup/Dunks+1.3#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#53
Freethrows-3.1#335
Improvement+0.3#159

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#224
First Shot-1.3#214
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#216
Layups/Dunks-0.7#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#294
Freethrows+3.1#21
Improvement-0.1#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 7.9% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 89.1% 95.5% 85.6%
.500 or above in Conference 73.1% 78.7% 70.0%
Conference Champion 6.0% 7.8% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.8% 1.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.5% 7.9% 5.7%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 35.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 610 - 11
Quad 410 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 126   Furman L 74-76 60%     0 - 1 -2.8 +1.5 -4.2
  Nov 12, 2024 107   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 31%     1 - 1 +8.2 +11.9 -3.7
  Nov 15, 2024 267   @ Air Force W 79-71 67%     2 - 1 +5.3 +12.3 -6.3
  Nov 19, 2024 293   Oral Roberts W 90-80 86%     3 - 1 +0.1 +1.2 -2.1
  Nov 26, 2024 189   Loyola Marymount L 63-77 63%     3 - 2 -15.4 -12.0 -2.8
  Nov 27, 2024 203   Tulane W 89-66 65%     4 - 2 +20.9 +16.7 +4.7
  Nov 29, 2024 240   Gardner-Webb W 83-74 80%     5 - 2 +1.9 +0.7 +0.6
  Dec 04, 2024 160   Illinois St. W 99-97 OT 69%     6 - 2 1 - 0 -1.1 +9.7 -11.0
  Dec 07, 2024 130   Middle Tennessee W 82-79 62%     7 - 2 +1.8 +5.9 -4.2
  Dec 14, 2024 205   @ Richmond W 93-86 54%     8 - 2 +7.8 +14.3 -7.1
  Dec 19, 2024 63   UC Irvine L 74-78 36%    
  Dec 29, 2024 70   @ Drake L 67-76 20%    
  Jan 01, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 74-80 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 215   Illinois-Chicago W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 08, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 80-75 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 168   @ Indiana St. L 86-87 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 227   Valparaiso W 85-77 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 268   @ Evansville W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 21, 2025 76   Bradley L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 116   @ Murray St. L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 29, 2025 160   @ Illinois St. L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 02, 2025 268   Evansville W 84-73 83%    
  Feb 05, 2025 76   @ Bradley L 75-83 23%    
  Feb 08, 2025 191   Missouri St. W 79-73 72%    
  Feb 12, 2025 227   @ Valparaiso W 82-80 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 99   Northern Iowa L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 168   Indiana St. W 89-84 69%    
  Feb 26, 2025 191   @ Missouri St. W 77-76 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 116   Murray St. W 76-74 56%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.5 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 16.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.4 10.2 12.8 14.2 13.4 11.9 9.2 5.9 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 98.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 93.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 80.7% 1.3    0.9 0.3 0.0
16-4 53.3% 1.8    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 25.3% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 27.9% 27.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.5% 30.1% 28.6% 1.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.1%
17-3 1.6% 22.8% 22.7% 0.1% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.2%
16-4 3.4% 18.7% 18.7% 11.9 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8
15-5 5.9% 14.1% 14.1% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1
14-6 9.2% 13.2% 13.2% 12.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 8.0
13-7 11.9% 9.7% 9.7% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.7
12-8 13.4% 6.8% 6.8% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.5
11-9 14.2% 3.8% 3.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.7
10-10 12.8% 2.6% 2.6% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.5
9-11 10.2% 1.7% 1.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.0
8-12 7.4% 1.2% 1.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
7-13 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 4.9
6-14 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.7
5-15 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 93.5 0.0%