Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#106
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#100
Pace75.2#36
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 16.6% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.4
.500 or above 84.8% 87.4% 67.0%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 80.3% 66.2%
Conference Champion 19.8% 21.2% 10.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.7% 4.1%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round15.5% 16.4% 9.2%
Second Round3.0% 3.2% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 87.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 9
Quad 411 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 304   Air Force W 79-63 91%     1 - 0 +5.3 +6.1 +0.0
  Nov 08, 2025 251   Tennessee St. W 85-73 87%    
  Nov 15, 2025 315   @ Oral Roberts W 82-72 81%    
  Nov 19, 2025 244   Lipscomb W 80-69 85%    
  Nov 24, 2025 352   St. Francis (PA) W 83-67 93%    
  Nov 30, 2025 122   @ College of Charleston L 79-80 47%    
  Dec 03, 2025 129   Richmond W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 07, 2025 151   @ Middle Tennessee W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 13, 2025 141   Illinois-Chicago W 81-75 71%    
  Dec 16, 2025 234   @ Evansville W 75-70 67%    
  Dec 19, 2025 105   @ UC Irvine L 74-77 40%    
  Dec 29, 2025 209   @ Indiana St. W 86-82 62%    
  Jan 01, 2026 112   Bradley W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 04, 2026 139   Southern Illinois W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 07, 2026 109   @ Northern Iowa L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 10, 2026 131   @ Drake L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 13, 2026 279   Valparaiso W 83-70 87%    
  Jan 17, 2026 139   @ Southern Illinois L 76-77 50%    
  Jan 25, 2026 101   Illinois St. W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 28, 2026 279   @ Valparaiso W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 31, 2026 120   Murray St. W 80-75 65%    
  Feb 03, 2026 131   Drake W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 06, 2026 141   @ Illinois-Chicago W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 09, 2026 112   @ Bradley L 72-75 42%    
  Feb 12, 2026 109   Northern Iowa W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 15, 2026 120   @ Murray St. L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 21, 2026 209   Indiana St. W 89-79 79%    
  Feb 25, 2026 234   Evansville W 78-67 82%    
  Mar 01, 2026 101   @ Illinois St. L 74-77 40%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.7 5.1 4.4 3.1 1.4 0.3 19.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.3 4.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.5 5.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.8 1.3 0.2 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.2 1.0 0.1 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.5 5.4 7.2 8.6 9.7 11.4 11.4 10.9 9.4 7.5 5.0 3.1 1.4 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 98.2% 3.1    2.8 0.2
17-3 87.1% 4.4    3.6 0.7 0.1
16-4 67.8% 5.1    3.4 1.5 0.2
15-5 39.0% 3.7    1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 15.3% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.8% 19.8 13.6 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 72.2% 55.6% 16.7% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 37.5%
19-1 1.4% 67.3% 53.3% 14.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 29.9%
18-2 3.1% 51.7% 47.0% 4.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5 8.8%
17-3 5.0% 39.8% 37.2% 2.6% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 4.1%
16-4 7.5% 31.2% 31.1% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.1 5.1 0.2%
15-5 9.4% 23.6% 23.5% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.2 0.1%
14-6 10.9% 18.8% 18.8% 12.2 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 8.8
13-7 11.4% 14.5% 14.5% 12.4 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 9.7
12-8 11.4% 10.1% 10.1% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.2
11-9 9.7% 7.3% 7.3% 13.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.0
10-10 8.6% 5.5% 5.5% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
9-11 7.2% 3.1% 3.1% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9
8-12 5.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.3
7-13 3.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-14 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 19.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
5-15 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.7% 15.2% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 4.6 6.1 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 84.3 0.6%