Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#138
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#123
Pace76.1#45
Improvement-0.9#271

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#120
First Shot+2.3#112
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#181
Layup/Dunks+0.3#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows-2.0#279
Improvement-0.6#262

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#198
First Shot-1.4#235
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#148
Layups/Dunks-1.6#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#311
Freethrows+4.3#11
Improvement-0.3#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 7.7% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 13.0
.500 or above 69.6% 78.6% 56.1%
.500 or above in Conference 62.6% 68.1% 54.3%
Conference Champion 6.9% 8.5% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 2.5% 5.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round6.5% 7.7% 4.8%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Neutral) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 68 - 11
Quad 49 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 132   Furman L 74-76 60%     0 - 1 -3.3 -0.2 -3.1
  Nov 12, 2024 150   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 42%     1 - 1 +4.6 +8.4 -3.8
  Nov 15, 2024 283   @ Air Force W 79-71 67%     2 - 1 +4.8 +10.8 -5.2
  Nov 19, 2024 263   Oral Roberts W 90-80 82%     3 - 1 +1.6 +1.6 -1.0
  Nov 26, 2024 186   Loyola Marymount W 76-73 60%    
  Nov 29, 2024 211   Gardner-Webb W 82-75 74%    
  Dec 04, 2024 177   Illinois St. W 76-71 69%    
  Dec 07, 2024 146   Middle Tennessee W 79-76 62%    
  Dec 14, 2024 198   @ Richmond W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 19, 2024 64   UC Irvine L 76-80 35%    
  Dec 29, 2024 80   @ Drake L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 01, 2025 112   @ Northern Iowa L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 157   Illinois-Chicago W 87-83 64%    
  Jan 08, 2025 139   Southern Illinois W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 164   @ Indiana St. L 82-83 45%    
  Jan 14, 2025 266   Valparaiso W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 274   @ Evansville W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 92   Bradley L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 115   @ Murray St. L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 29, 2025 177   @ Illinois St. L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 02, 2025 274   Evansville W 84-74 81%    
  Feb 05, 2025 92   @ Bradley L 73-81 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 165   Missouri St. W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 12, 2025 266   @ Valparaiso W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 139   @ Southern Illinois L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 112   Northern Iowa W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 164   Indiana St. W 85-80 65%    
  Feb 26, 2025 165   @ Missouri St. L 75-76 45%    
  Mar 02, 2025 115   Murray St. W 76-75 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.3 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 4.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 4.7 6.9 9.1 10.8 11.4 12.0 11.3 9.4 7.3 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 96.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 94.4% 0.7    0.7 0.1
17-3 81.0% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 61.2% 2.0    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 31.3% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 10.7% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 3.9 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 53.8% 42.3% 11.5% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0%
19-1 0.2% 44.9% 35.5% 9.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.5%
18-2 0.8% 34.9% 33.3% 1.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.3%
17-3 1.7% 29.7% 29.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.2
16-4 3.2% 22.7% 22.6% 0.1% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 0.2%
15-5 5.2% 17.4% 17.4% 12.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.3
14-6 7.3% 13.9% 13.9% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 6.3
13-7 9.4% 10.2% 10.2% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.4
12-8 11.3% 6.8% 6.8% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.6
11-9 12.0% 4.4% 4.4% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 11.5
10-10 11.4% 2.7% 2.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.1
9-11 10.8% 2.6% 2.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
8-12 9.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.0
7-13 6.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.9
6-14 4.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.7
5-15 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-16 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-17 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 6.6% 6.5% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 93.4 0.0%