Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#135
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#94
Pace76.1#29
Improvement-1.0#228

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#90
First Shot+3.7#79
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#215
Layup/Dunks+0.3#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#31
Freethrows-2.8#334
Improvement-1.4#264

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#230
First Shot-2.0#241
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#175
Layups/Dunks-0.6#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#319
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#257
Freethrows+2.1#53
Improvement+0.4#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 8.4% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 96.5% 97.8% 92.7%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 91.1% 76.0%
Conference Champion 9.9% 12.0% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.8% 8.4% 5.8%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 39 - 610 - 11
Quad 410 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 138   Furman L 74-76 62%     0 - 1 -3.6 +0.3 -3.9
  Nov 12, 2024 96   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 27%     1 - 1 +8.9 +11.9 -2.9
  Nov 15, 2024 286   @ Air Force W 79-71 70%     2 - 1 +4.0 +12.6 -7.8
  Nov 19, 2024 309   Oral Roberts W 90-80 88%     3 - 1 -1.2 -1.9 -0.4
  Nov 26, 2024 150   Loyola Marymount L 63-77 52%     3 - 2 -13.2 -10.8 -1.8
  Nov 27, 2024 160   Tulane W 89-66 55%     4 - 2 +23.2 +18.2 +5.4
  Nov 29, 2024 256   Gardner-Webb W 83-74 82%     5 - 2 +0.8 +0.6 -0.4
  Dec 04, 2024 145   Illinois St. W 99-97 OT 63%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +0.1 +9.5 -9.7
  Dec 07, 2024 118   Middle Tennessee W 82-79 57%     7 - 2 +2.6 +6.3 -3.8
  Dec 14, 2024 204   @ Richmond W 93-86 53%     8 - 2 +7.6 +13.5 -6.5
  Dec 19, 2024 59   UC Irvine L 84-92 32%     8 - 3 -1.8 +10.4 -11.4
  Dec 29, 2024 81   @ Drake L 46-65 21%     8 - 4 1 - 1 -9.2 -12.1 -0.9
  Jan 01, 2025 105   @ Northern Iowa L 70-76 30%     8 - 5 1 - 2 +0.9 -4.0 +5.1
  Jan 04, 2025 153   Illinois-Chicago W 92-87 64%     9 - 5 2 - 2 +2.8 +8.6 -6.3
  Jan 08, 2025 237   Southern Illinois W 90-86 79%     10 - 5 3 - 2 -3.0 +13.5 -16.6
  Jan 11, 2025 175   @ Indiana St. W 84-79 46%     11 - 5 4 - 2 +7.4 +3.2 +3.9
  Jan 14, 2025 206   Valparaiso W 84-77 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 254   @ Evansville W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 21, 2025 95   Bradley L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 126   @ Murray St. L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 29, 2025 145   @ Illinois St. L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 02, 2025 254   Evansville W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 05, 2025 95   @ Bradley L 73-80 26%    
  Feb 08, 2025 226   Missouri St. W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 206   @ Valparaiso W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 237   @ Southern Illinois W 81-78 61%    
  Feb 19, 2025 105   Northern Iowa W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 175   Indiana St. W 90-85 67%    
  Feb 26, 2025 226   @ Missouri St. W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 02, 2025 126   Murray St. W 76-74 56%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.5 2.0 3.7 2.7 0.8 0.1 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.5 3.1 0.6 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.1 8.0 3.6 0.4 17.8 3rd
4th 0.4 4.0 8.4 3.5 0.2 0.0 16.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.5 6.4 4.3 0.3 14.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 6.0 3.2 0.4 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.0 0.5 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.6 7.2 13.3 14.9 18.9 16.4 12.3 7.2 3.3 0.9 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 92.3% 0.8    0.6 0.2
16-4 81.9% 2.7    1.8 0.8 0.1
15-5 51.9% 3.7    1.6 1.5 0.6 0.0
14-6 16.3% 2.0    0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2
13-7 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 4.4 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 65.6% 65.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.9% 25.8% 25.8% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.7
16-4 3.3% 21.5% 21.5% 12.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6
15-5 7.2% 15.4% 15.4% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 6.1
14-6 12.3% 13.1% 13.1% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.7
13-7 16.4% 9.8% 9.8% 12.9 0.4 0.9 0.3 14.8
12-8 18.9% 6.8% 6.8% 13.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 17.6
11-9 14.9% 4.6% 4.6% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 14.2
10-10 13.3% 2.6% 2.6% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.9
9-11 7.2% 1.1% 1.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.1
8-12 3.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
7-13 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 12.8 0.1 2.8 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 92.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 12.0 100.0