Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#70
Expected Predictive Rating+17.8#15
Pace60.4#352
Improvement-0.1#192

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#109
First Shot+3.3#91
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#233
Layup/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#260
Freethrows+3.8#22
Improvement-1.2#282

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#43
First Shot+3.5#78
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#55
Layups/Dunks-1.7#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#14
Freethrows-2.8#334
Improvement+1.1#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 3.9% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.9% 43.0% 30.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.2% 12.0% 3.3%
Average Seed 10.8 10.3 11.2
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.9% 97.5%
Conference Champion 47.3% 54.2% 43.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.6% 4.3% 1.7%
First Round33.6% 40.8% 29.5%
Second Round11.1% 15.6% 8.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 4.7% 2.4%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.4% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 35.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 23 - 24 - 3
Quad 39 - 314 - 6
Quad 410 - 124 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 214   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 89%     1 - 0 +9.3 +5.5 +6.1
  Nov 16, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 86%     2 - 0 -2.0 -4.6 +2.8
  Nov 21, 2024 91   Miami (FL) W 80-69 57%     3 - 0 +17.0 +16.4 +2.1
  Nov 22, 2024 84   Florida Atlantic W 75-63 55%     4 - 0 +18.6 +7.3 +12.1
  Nov 24, 2024 57   Vanderbilt W 81-70 44%     5 - 0 +20.4 +10.2 +10.1
  Nov 30, 2024 235   Georgia Southern W 61-47 91%     6 - 0 +7.1 -8.4 +16.9
  Dec 05, 2024 227   @ Valparaiso W 66-60 79%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +5.5 +1.2 +5.2
  Dec 17, 2024 64   @ Kansas St. L 64-68 36%    
  Dec 21, 2024 331   Green Bay W 80-59 98%    
  Dec 29, 2024 129   Belmont W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 01, 2025 215   @ Illinois-Chicago W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 05, 2025 116   Murray St. W 67-59 76%    
  Jan 08, 2025 76   @ Bradley L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 268   Evansville W 75-58 94%    
  Jan 15, 2025 160   Illinois St. W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 168   @ Indiana St. W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 22, 2025 227   Valparaiso W 75-61 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 191   @ Missouri St. W 67-61 72%    
  Jan 29, 2025 99   Northern Iowa W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 71-60 85%    
  Feb 04, 2025 116   @ Murray St. W 64-62 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 168   Indiana St. W 78-67 85%    
  Feb 12, 2025 160   @ Illinois St. W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 16, 2025 76   Bradley W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 19, 2025 215   Illinois-Chicago W 74-60 89%    
  Feb 23, 2025 99   @ Northern Iowa L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 268   @ Evansville W 72-61 82%    
  Mar 02, 2025 191   Missouri St. W 70-58 86%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.5 10.5 12.5 10.0 5.4 1.6 47.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.3 7.8 5.3 1.8 0.2 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.0 6.5 9.7 12.9 15.1 16.1 14.3 10.2 5.4 1.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 100.0% 5.4    5.3 0.0
18-2 98.0% 10.0    9.3 0.7 0.0
17-3 87.3% 12.5    10.0 2.4 0.1
16-4 65.3% 10.5    6.3 3.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 36.3% 5.5    2.2 2.4 0.8 0.0
14-6 12.4% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.3% 47.3 35.1 10.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 89.6% 58.6% 31.0% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 74.8%
19-1 5.4% 75.7% 53.7% 22.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.3 47.6%
18-2 10.2% 61.5% 48.3% 13.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.2 0.7 3.9 25.6%
17-3 14.3% 46.4% 40.3% 6.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.0 1.8 0.0 7.7 10.1%
16-4 16.1% 35.9% 34.0% 2.0% 11.5 0.0 0.2 2.8 2.7 0.1 10.3 3.0%
15-5 15.1% 29.1% 28.6% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 1.4 2.9 0.1 10.7 0.8%
14-6 12.9% 23.0% 22.9% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 9.9 0.2%
13-7 9.7% 19.2% 19.2% 0.1% 12.0 0.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.8 0.1%
12-8 6.5% 13.8% 13.8% 12.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.6
11-9 4.0% 9.1% 9.1% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.6
10-10 2.3% 6.2% 6.2% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
9-11 1.1% 4.1% 4.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-12 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 3.6% 3.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 34.9% 30.6% 4.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.5 3.0 13.3 13.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 65.1 6.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 4.2 5.4 6.9 14.9 35.9 18.1 13.0 4.3 0.7 0.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 87.7% 6.5 1.5 15.4 10.8 23.1 7.7 15.4 4.6 6.2 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 92.9% 7.0 7.1 25.0 14.3 8.9 7.1 17.9 5.4 7.1