Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#80
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#40
Pace54.9#364
Improvement-1.1#232

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#101
First Shot+3.3#88
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#205
Layup/Dunks+3.4#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#252
Freethrows+2.9#32
Improvement-0.3#200

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#67
First Shot+3.6#72
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#129
Layups/Dunks-3.3#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#3
Freethrows-2.5#332
Improvement-0.8#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.3% 33.2% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 2.8% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 45.2% 47.5% 26.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 0.3%
First Round31.4% 32.3% 23.9%
Second Round7.4% 7.8% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.6% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 89.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 23 - 25 - 2
Quad 39 - 214 - 5
Quad 411 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 249   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 91%     1 - 0 +7.3 +5.0 +4.5
  Nov 16, 2024 168   Florida Gulf Coast W 63-61 83%     2 - 0 -1.1 -4.2 +3.3
  Nov 21, 2024 155   Miami (FL) W 80-69 74%     3 - 0 +11.6 +13.2 -0.1
  Nov 22, 2024 108   Florida Atlantic W 75-63 64%     4 - 0 +15.4 +6.7 +9.5
  Nov 24, 2024 48   Vanderbilt W 81-70 36%     5 - 0 +21.7 +11.6 +10.0
  Nov 30, 2024 272   Georgia Southern W 61-47 93%     6 - 0 +5.0 -10.3 +16.6
  Dec 05, 2024 214   @ Valparaiso W 66-60 76%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +5.9 +2.6 +4.1
  Dec 17, 2024 89   @ Kansas St. W 73-70 OT 42%     8 - 0 +12.1 +9.0 +3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 333   Green Bay W 72-62 96%     9 - 0 -4.0 +6.1 -7.9
  Dec 29, 2024 139   Belmont W 65-46 79%     10 - 0 2 - 0 +17.8 +2.0 +19.6
  Jan 01, 2025 143   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 61%     10 - 1 2 - 1 +0.2 +11.1 -11.7
  Jan 05, 2025 142   Murray St. L 59-66 79%     10 - 2 2 - 2 -8.3 -2.6 -7.0
  Jan 08, 2025 73   @ Bradley W 64-57 38%     11 - 2 3 - 2 +17.4 +5.2 +13.1
  Jan 11, 2025 261   Evansville W 63-40 92%     12 - 2 4 - 2 +14.6 +4.6 +15.3
  Jan 15, 2025 144   Illinois St. W 66-62 79%     13 - 2 5 - 2 +2.6 +11.6 -7.6
  Jan 18, 2025 213   @ Indiana St. W 71-53 75%     14 - 2 6 - 2 +18.0 +2.7 +17.0
  Jan 22, 2025 214   Valparaiso W 71-58 89%    
  Jan 25, 2025 244   @ Missouri St. W 65-56 80%    
  Jan 29, 2025 113   Northern Iowa W 67-60 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 190   Southern Illinois W 69-58 86%    
  Feb 04, 2025 142   @ Murray St. W 63-60 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 213   Indiana St. W 77-64 89%    
  Feb 12, 2025 144   @ Illinois St. W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 73   Bradley W 63-61 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 143   Illinois-Chicago W 70-62 80%    
  Feb 23, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 26, 2025 261   @ Evansville W 65-55 82%    
  Mar 02, 2025 244   Missouri St. W 68-54 91%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 8.8 15.6 13.3 4.7 45.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.8 11.8 13.9 7.0 1.4 38.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 10.1 17.6 23.4 22.6 14.7 4.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 4.7    4.5 0.3
17-3 90.3% 13.3    10.7 2.5 0.0
16-4 68.9% 15.6    9.5 5.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 37.8% 8.8    3.3 4.4 1.0 0.0
14-6 14.0% 2.5    0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 45.2% 45.2 28.5 14.2 2.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.7% 57.8% 43.9% 13.9% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.1 2.0 24.8%
17-3 14.7% 45.5% 41.1% 4.4% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 4.3 1.6 8.0 7.5%
16-4 22.6% 36.9% 35.1% 1.8% 11.4 0.0 0.1 4.4 3.7 0.0 14.3 2.7%
15-5 23.4% 29.3% 29.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 2.3 4.5 0.1 0.0 16.5 0.2%
14-6 17.6% 25.4% 25.4% 0.1% 11.9 0.7 3.4 0.3 13.1 0.1%
13-7 10.1% 20.5% 20.5% 12.1 0.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.0
12-8 4.5% 19.7% 19.7% 12.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 3.6
11-9 1.7% 9.4% 9.4% 12.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
10-10 0.5% 7.8% 7.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.3% 30.5% 1.8% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.3 12.6 15.9 0.9 0.0 67.7 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 8.8 1.4 2.9 7.7 15.9 10.1 24.0 18.3 17.8 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 37.7% 10.6 0.9 1.9 11.3 20.8 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 18.1% 10.8 1.1 2.1 14.9