Drake
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#98
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#47
Pace67.7#229
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#127
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#82
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 24.6% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 2.3% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 12.5
.500 or above 89.7% 92.1% 74.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 90.6% 78.7%
Conference Champion 33.1% 35.2% 20.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.9%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
First Round22.8% 24.1% 14.6%
Second Round6.6% 7.2% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.3% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 48 - 7
Quad 411 - 219 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 171   Stephen F. Austin W 66-51 80%     1 - 0 +11.4 +2.6 +11.1
  Nov 16, 2024 239   Florida Gulf Coast W 72-60 86%    
  Nov 21, 2024 33   Miami (FL) L 70-76 27%    
  Nov 30, 2024 197   Georgia Southern W 79-69 82%    
  Dec 04, 2024 278   @ Valparaiso W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 17, 2024 42   @ Kansas St. L 65-73 22%    
  Dec 21, 2024 290   Green Bay W 81-66 91%    
  Dec 29, 2024 151   Belmont W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 01, 2025 162   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 05, 2025 136   Murray St. W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 08, 2025 90   @ Bradley L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 248   Evansville W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 15, 2025 173   Illinois St. W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 207   @ Indiana St. W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 22, 2025 278   Valparaiso W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 25, 2025 195   @ Missouri St. W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 128   Northern Iowa W 72-66 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 161   Southern Illinois W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 04, 2025 136   @ Murray St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 207   Indiana St. W 79-68 82%    
  Feb 12, 2025 173   @ Illinois St. W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 16, 2025 90   Bradley W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 162   Illinois-Chicago W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 23, 2025 128   @ Northern Iowa L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 248   @ Evansville W 74-68 70%    
  Mar 02, 2025 195   Missouri St. W 74-64 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.8 7.0 8.0 6.4 3.5 1.3 33.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.5 5.9 3.6 1.3 0.2 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.0 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.8 4.1 5.7 7.8 9.2 10.8 11.7 12.2 10.8 9.3 6.6 3.5 1.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
19-1 100.0% 3.5    3.5 0.0
18-2 97.5% 6.4    5.9 0.5 0.0
17-3 86.2% 8.0    6.4 1.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 65.1% 7.0    4.6 2.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 39.6% 4.8    2.2 2.0 0.6 0.1
14-6 14.5% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.1% 33.1 24.3 7.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.3% 80.5% 59.9% 20.6% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 51.3%
19-1 3.5% 68.3% 54.2% 14.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 30.9%
18-2 6.6% 53.5% 46.3% 7.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.1 13.4%
17-3 9.3% 42.4% 39.5% 2.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.4 4.9%
16-4 10.8% 32.9% 32.5% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 7.3 0.7%
15-5 12.2% 25.9% 25.8% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.0 0.1%
14-6 11.7% 18.6% 18.6% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 9.5
13-7 10.8% 14.5% 14.5% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 9.2
12-8 9.2% 9.9% 9.9% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.3
11-9 7.8% 6.5% 6.5% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.3
10-10 5.7% 4.7% 4.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.4
9-11 4.1% 2.3% 2.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
7-13 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-14 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 23.3% 21.7% 1.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 4.2 8.8 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 76.7 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.4 15.9 9.5 17.5 30.2 25.4 1.6