Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#14
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#98
Pace66.3#270
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.0% 6.0% 3.0%
Top 2 Seed 13.9% 13.9% 6.1%
Top 4 Seed 34.5% 34.5% 6.1%
Top 6 Seed 53.0% 53.1% 9.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.0% 81.1% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.5% 79.5% 27.3%
Average Seed 5.4 5.4 6.7
.500 or above 95.2% 95.2% 60.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 76.1% 36.4%
Conference Champion 8.2% 8.2% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.3% 9.1%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 3.0%
First Round79.5% 79.6% 27.3%
Second Round59.9% 59.9% 15.2%
Sweet Sixteen33.2% 33.2% 9.1%
Elite Eight16.5% 16.5% 0.0%
Final Four8.1% 8.1% 0.0%
Championship Game3.7% 3.7% 0.0%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 111 - 10
Quad 34 - 015 - 10
Quad 46 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 291   Bethune-Cookman W 94-61 98%     1 - 0 +23.2 +19.8 +4.2
  Nov 08, 2024 332   Northwestern St. W 86-65 99%     2 - 0 +8.2 +9.5 -0.7
  Nov 13, 2024 196   Wyoming W 96-49 96%     3 - 0 +42.1 +21.4 +21.1
  Nov 18, 2024 361   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94-61 99.9%   
  Nov 21, 2024 106   Saint Joseph's W 77-67 83%    
  Nov 29, 2024 192   Northern Colorado W 85-65 96%    
  Dec 04, 2024 114   DePaul W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 08, 2024 28   Texas A&M W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 16, 2024 245   Oral Roberts W 84-62 98%    
  Dec 21, 2024 280   Lamar W 85-61 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 66   Central Florida W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 51   @ Utah W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 07, 2025 32   @ BYU L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 11   Iowa St. W 70-69 56%    
  Jan 14, 2025 42   @ Kansas St. W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 8   Arizona W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 21, 2025 22   @ Cincinnati L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 26, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 29, 2025 53   TCU W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 2   @ Houston L 62-70 25%    
  Feb 04, 2025 13   Baylor W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 74-80 32%    
  Feb 12, 2025 72   Arizona St. W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 18, 2025 53   @ TCU W 75-72 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 57   West Virginia W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 24, 2025 2   Houston L 65-67 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 5   @ Kansas L 71-78 27%    
  Mar 05, 2025 76   Colorado W 75-65 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 72   @ Arizona St. W 74-70 63%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.8 2.7 1.0 0.1 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.4 2.7 0.7 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 4.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 4.3 3.3 0.7 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.5 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.7 1.1 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.2 6.2 8.1 10.3 11.9 11.8 12.1 10.4 8.2 5.6 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 91.3% 1.4    1.2 0.3 0.0
17-3 70.7% 2.4    1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 40.0% 2.3    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
15-5 13.4% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 4.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.4% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 5.6% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.2% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 2.9 0.8 2.2 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.4% 99.9% 10.9% 89.0% 3.8 0.3 1.1 3.0 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.1% 99.8% 8.7% 91.1% 4.8 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.0 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 11.8% 98.7% 4.2% 94.5% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.4 2.8 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.6%
11-9 11.9% 95.8% 2.6% 93.3% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.5 95.7%
10-10 10.3% 86.6% 1.6% 85.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 86.4%
9-11 8.1% 60.0% 1.2% 58.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.2 3.2 59.5%
8-12 6.2% 29.4% 0.5% 28.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.4 29.1%
7-13 4.2% 8.1% 0.3% 7.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.9 7.8%
6-14 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 1.0%
5-15 1.5% 1.5
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.0% 7.4% 73.6% 5.4 6.0 7.9 10.2 10.4 9.9 8.6 8.0 6.7 5.2 4.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 19.0 79.5%