Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.4#10
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#19
Pace65.2#261
Improvement+1.4#122

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#11
First Shot+9.3#12
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#74
Layup/Dunks+0.6#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#20
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#46
Freethrows-0.1#177
Improvement-0.5#206

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#29
First Shot+5.4#38
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#51
Layups/Dunks+7.9#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#189
Freethrows+2.2#48
Improvement+2.0#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 6.6% 7.6% 2.2%
Top 2 Seed 25.3% 28.5% 11.4%
Top 4 Seed 78.2% 82.0% 62.0%
Top 6 Seed 98.1% 98.8% 95.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 3.5 3.3 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round92.3% 93.2% 88.1%
Sweet Sixteen58.4% 59.6% 53.1%
Elite Eight28.1% 29.3% 23.1%
Final Four13.8% 14.4% 11.4%
Championship Game6.6% 6.9% 5.2%
National Champion3.0% 3.2% 2.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 6
Quad 25 - 213 - 7
Quad 36 - 119 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman W 94-61 99%     1 - 0 +23.1 +20.8 +3.2
  Nov 08, 2024 272   Northwestern St. W 86-65 99%     2 - 0 +12.2 +12.8 +0.0
  Nov 13, 2024 166   Wyoming W 96-49 97%     3 - 0 +44.2 +24.5 +20.1
  Nov 18, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-64 99.8%    4 - 0 +11.7 +10.4 +0.1
  Nov 21, 2024 78   Saint Joseph's L 77-78 85%     4 - 1 +6.3 +8.9 -2.5
  Nov 22, 2024 108   Syracuse W 79-74 91%     5 - 1 +8.5 +10.0 -1.3
  Nov 29, 2024 151   Northern Colorado W 89-64 96%     6 - 1 +23.1 +12.9 +10.2
  Dec 04, 2024 120   DePaul W 76-62 95%     7 - 1 +14.0 +8.1 +6.8
  Dec 08, 2024 20   Texas A&M L 67-72 59%     7 - 2 +11.0 +8.2 +2.5
  Dec 16, 2024 322   Oral Roberts W 86-50 99%     8 - 2 +24.0 +9.0 +16.9
  Dec 21, 2024 194   Lamar W 101-57 97%     9 - 2 +39.6 +29.6 +10.7
  Dec 31, 2024 81   Central Florida L 83-87 90%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +0.5 +7.8 -7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 68   @ Utah W 93-65 77%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +38.8 +40.5 +2.8
  Jan 07, 2025 26   @ BYU W 72-67 54%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +22.4 +15.6 +7.5
  Jan 11, 2025 9   Iowa St. L 84-85 OT 59%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +15.1 +13.0 +2.2
  Jan 14, 2025 56   @ Kansas St. W 61-57 70%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +17.1 +4.3 +13.4
  Jan 18, 2025 8   Arizona W 70-54 59%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +32.2 +8.9 +23.9
  Jan 21, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati W 81-71 67%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +23.8 +21.7 +2.6
  Jan 26, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 64-54 92%     15 - 4 6 - 2 +13.0 -2.9 +16.4
  Jan 29, 2025 64   TCU W 71-57 88%     16 - 4 7 - 2 +19.8 +13.9 +7.9
  Feb 01, 2025 3   @ Houston W 82-81 OT 26%     17 - 4 8 - 2 +26.0 +20.3 +5.7
  Feb 04, 2025 24   Baylor W 73-59 70%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +26.8 +9.0 +18.8
  Feb 08, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 73-82 39%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +12.3 +10.3 +2.1
  Feb 12, 2025 65   Arizona St. W 111-106 2OT 88%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +10.8 +21.0 -11.1
  Feb 15, 2025 92   @ Oklahoma St. W 93-55 83%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +46.1 +25.7 +20.6
  Feb 18, 2025 64   @ TCU L 66-69 76%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +7.9 +9.6 -2.1
  Feb 22, 2025 41   West Virginia W 72-63 81%    
  Feb 24, 2025 3   Houston L 66-67 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 19   @ Kansas L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 91   Colorado W 78-63 94%    
  Mar 08, 2025 65   @ Arizona St. W 77-69 75%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 3.1 16.7 9.4 29.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.9 20.8 17.9 1.3 44.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 10.1 9.8 0.7 22.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 0.2 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 2.8 14.2 33.6 35.7 13.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 21.9% 3.0    0.2 1.5 1.3 0.1
15-5 1.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 3.4% 3.4 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 13.7% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 2.1 3.7 6.2 3.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
15-5 35.7% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 2.9 2.4 9.5 14.1 7.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 33.6% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 3.9 0.4 2.7 9.1 12.1 7.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.2% 99.9% 10.6% 89.2% 4.7 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 4.6 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 2.8% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 5.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.5 6.6 18.7 28.2 24.7 14.1 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 1.5 50.3 46.9 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8% 100.0% 1.9 30.6 50.7 17.3 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.5% 100.0% 2.2 19.2 45.7 30.7 4.4