Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#25
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#78
Pace66.3#257
Improvement-0.5#221

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#20
First Shot+7.4#27
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#131
Layup/Dunks-0.7#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#27
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement-1.9#309

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#42
First Shot+4.4#54
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#88
Layups/Dunks+8.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
Freethrows+1.7#66
Improvement+1.3#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.5% 3.6% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 13.7% 14.1% 4.9%
Top 6 Seed 29.7% 30.5% 13.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.0% 73.9% 55.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.4% 72.3% 53.9%
Average Seed 7.0 6.9 7.9
.500 or above 95.9% 96.5% 84.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 76.5% 63.3%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.3% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.9% 2.2%
First Four5.3% 5.2% 7.5%
First Round70.7% 71.6% 52.4%
Second Round46.8% 47.5% 31.1%
Sweet Sixteen20.5% 21.0% 11.6%
Elite Eight9.2% 9.4% 4.7%
Final Four3.8% 3.9% 1.9%
Championship Game1.5% 1.5% 0.7%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 95.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 26 - 211 - 11
Quad 34 - 115 - 11
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 289   Bethune-Cookman W 94-61 98%     1 - 0 +23.2 +21.8 +2.3
  Nov 08, 2024 296   Northwestern St. W 86-65 98%     2 - 0 +11.0 +11.3 +0.3
  Nov 13, 2024 187   Wyoming W 96-49 94%     3 - 0 +42.7 +23.0 +20.1
  Nov 18, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-64 99.5%    4 - 0 +13.8 +8.8 +3.9
  Nov 21, 2024 103   Saint Joseph's L 77-78 80%     4 - 1 +3.9 +7.4 -3.6
  Nov 22, 2024 97   Syracuse W 79-74 79%     5 - 1 +10.4 +10.1 +0.5
  Nov 29, 2024 192   Northern Colorado W 89-64 95%     6 - 1 +20.5 +12.5 +7.9
  Dec 04, 2024 88   DePaul W 76-62 84%     7 - 1 +17.1 +8.9 +9.1
  Dec 08, 2024 24   Texas A&M L 67-72 50%     7 - 2 +8.9 +6.1 +2.5
  Dec 16, 2024 293   Oral Roberts W 86-50 98%     8 - 2 +26.1 +11.0 +17.0
  Dec 21, 2024 179   Lamar W 79-61 95%    
  Dec 31, 2024 82   Central Florida W 77-67 83%    
  Jan 04, 2025 66   @ Utah W 76-74 59%    
  Jan 07, 2025 44   @ BYU L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 14, 2025 64   @ Kansas St. W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 21   Arizona W 78-76 59%    
  Jan 21, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 26, 2025 85   Oklahoma St. W 81-71 82%    
  Jan 29, 2025 86   TCU W 75-65 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 6   @ Houston L 62-70 23%    
  Feb 04, 2025 12   Baylor W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 21   @ Arizona L 75-79 38%    
  Feb 12, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 85   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 86   @ TCU W 72-68 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 42   West Virginia W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 24, 2025 6   Houston L 65-67 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 70-77 28%    
  Mar 05, 2025 73   Colorado W 76-67 80%    
  Mar 08, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 74-72 56%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.0 3.9 0.7 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.7 9.1 11.5 13.5 13.8 12.4 9.9 7.3 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 93.1% 0.8    0.6 0.1
17-3 78.0% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 44.4% 2.0    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.5% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 2.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.1% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.6 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.4% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 3.4 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.3% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 4.5 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.9% 99.6% 10.2% 89.4% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 12.4% 98.3% 7.1% 91.2% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 3.5 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.2%
12-8 13.8% 94.0% 4.1% 89.9% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.9 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.8 93.8%
11-9 13.5% 84.4% 2.3% 82.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.2 2.6 1.1 0.0 2.1 84.0%
10-10 11.5% 67.0% 1.6% 65.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.6 1.8 0.1 3.8 66.4%
9-11 9.1% 35.7% 1.1% 34.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.2 5.9 34.9%
8-12 6.7% 10.8% 0.7% 10.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.0 10.2%
7-13 4.2% 1.6% 0.3% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 1.3%
6-14 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 2.3 0.1%
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 73.0% 5.5% 67.5% 7.0 1.0 2.4 4.2 6.0 7.5 8.6 10.4 10.3 9.2 7.6 5.3 0.4 27.0 71.4%