Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.5#17
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#38
Pace65.2#260
Improvement+2.0#87

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#11
First Shot+8.3#18
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#84
Layup/Dunks+0.2#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#51
Freethrows-0.2#190
Improvement-1.0#248

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#34
First Shot+4.7#46
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#54
Layups/Dunks+7.7#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#199
Freethrows+2.2#47
Improvement+3.0#43
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.1% 3.3% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 6.8% 10.2% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 33.0% 43.0% 20.5%
Top 6 Seed 69.4% 79.5% 56.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.9% 98.9% 94.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.7% 98.8% 94.1%
Average Seed 5.4 4.9 6.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 98.4% 92.7%
Conference Champion 4.9% 7.4% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.4% 2.4%
First Round96.4% 98.8% 93.4%
Second Round75.2% 80.3% 68.8%
Sweet Sixteen39.5% 44.3% 33.4%
Elite Eight17.7% 20.4% 14.3%
Final Four7.6% 9.1% 5.7%
Championship Game2.9% 3.3% 2.3%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.8%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 7
Quad 24 - 211 - 9
Quad 36 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 255   Bethune-Cookman W 94-61 98%     1 - 0 +24.9 +23.9 +1.9
  Nov 08, 2024 289   Northwestern St. W 86-65 98%     2 - 0 +11.0 +10.3 +1.2
  Nov 13, 2024 186   Wyoming W 96-49 96%     3 - 0 +43.1 +22.8 +20.7
  Nov 18, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-64 99.7%    4 - 0 +12.8 +8.6 +3.0
  Nov 21, 2024 90   Saint Joseph's L 77-78 83%     4 - 1 +5.3 +8.1 -2.8
  Nov 22, 2024 103   Syracuse W 79-74 88%     5 - 1 +9.0 +11.0 -1.9
  Nov 29, 2024 166   Northern Colorado W 89-64 95%     6 - 1 +22.1 +11.9 +10.1
  Dec 04, 2024 106   DePaul W 76-62 92%     7 - 1 +14.8 +6.7 +8.9
  Dec 08, 2024 21   Texas A&M L 67-72 55%     7 - 2 +10.3 +6.6 +3.4
  Dec 16, 2024 311   Oral Roberts W 86-50 99%     8 - 2 +24.7 +8.5 +18.1
  Dec 21, 2024 231   Lamar W 101-57 97%     9 - 2 +37.3 +28.3 +9.7
  Dec 31, 2024 71   Central Florida L 83-87 86%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +1.0 +9.1 -7.9
  Jan 04, 2025 69   @ Utah W 93-65 71%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +38.8 +40.7 +2.6
  Jan 07, 2025 44   @ BYU W 72-67 59%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +19.2 +15.1 +4.8
  Jan 11, 2025 4   Iowa St. L 84-85 OT 45%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +16.7 +13.6 +3.3
  Jan 14, 2025 89   @ Kansas St. W 61-57 76%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +13.1 +1.5 +12.2
  Jan 18, 2025 13   Arizona W 70-54 59%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +30.2 +6.5 +24.3
  Jan 21, 2025 39   @ Cincinnati W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 26, 2025 101   Oklahoma St. W 81-66 92%    
  Jan 29, 2025 62   TCU W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 3   @ Houston L 62-70 23%    
  Feb 04, 2025 22   Baylor W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 12, 2025 64   Arizona St. W 78-67 85%    
  Feb 15, 2025 101   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 18, 2025 62   @ TCU W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 32   West Virginia W 71-65 73%    
  Feb 24, 2025 3   Houston L 65-67 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 69-75 29%    
  Mar 05, 2025 94   Colorado W 78-65 89%    
  Mar 08, 2025 64   @ Arizona St. W 75-70 67%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.3 0.4 4.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.6 3.0 0.3 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 7.2 6.0 0.9 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 8.3 7.4 1.2 0.0 19.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 6.7 8.0 1.8 0.1 18.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.9 6.4 2.1 0.1 14.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 4.4 1.7 0.1 9.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.0 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 6.8 12.0 17.4 20.8 18.0 12.7 6.3 1.6 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 78.1% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 37.2% 2.3    0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1
15-5 6.3% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.6% 100.0% 21.3% 78.8% 1.9 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.3% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 2.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.0 0.2 100.0%
15-5 12.7% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 3.7 0.3 1.3 3.5 5.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-6 18.0% 99.8% 9.8% 90.0% 4.6 0.1 0.5 2.4 5.7 5.6 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 20.8% 99.8% 6.5% 93.3% 5.4 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 6.1 6.2 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.7%
12-8 17.4% 98.7% 4.9% 93.7% 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 5.5 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.6%
11-9 12.0% 96.6% 2.2% 94.3% 7.3 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.2 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.4 96.5%
10-10 6.8% 89.5% 1.0% 88.5% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.7 89.4%
9-11 2.9% 67.2% 0.7% 66.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.0 67.0%
8-12 0.9% 46.7% 2.2% 44.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 45.5%
7-13 0.2% 21.7% 21.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.7%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.9% 7.4% 89.6% 5.4 2.1 4.7 9.7 16.5 18.1 18.2 12.6 7.7 4.0 2.0 1.2 0.1 3.1 96.7%