Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#64
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#115
Pace69.4#166
Improvement+0.3#165

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#79
First Shot+1.4#135
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#48
Layup/Dunks+2.1#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#87
Freethrows-2.0#291
Improvement-0.6#242

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#57
First Shot+4.9#40
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#188
Layups/Dunks+2.6#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
Freethrows+2.6#38
Improvement+0.9#118
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 3.4% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 23.3% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.4% 22.7% 10.9%
Average Seed 8.7 8.7 9.1
.500 or above 41.7% 50.1% 26.7%
.500 or above in Conference 25.6% 29.0% 19.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 13.4% 11.4% 16.9%
First Four4.0% 4.7% 2.8%
First Round16.9% 20.9% 9.7%
Second Round8.3% 10.5% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 3.0% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 25 - 58 - 16
Quad 33 - 111 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 346   New Orleans W 89-65 97%     1 - 0 +9.3 +13.0 -2.7
  Nov 09, 2024 241   Cleveland St. W 77-64 92%     2 - 0 +5.8 +3.8 +2.1
  Nov 14, 2024 60   LSU L 65-76 60%     2 - 1 -4.9 -3.0 -2.2
  Nov 19, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 74-56 99%     3 - 1 -6.2 -4.2 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 144   George Washington W 83-71 78%     4 - 1 +12.7 +6.7 +5.5
  Nov 24, 2024 77   Liberty L 65-67 56%     4 - 2 +5.1 +3.1 +1.8
  Nov 25, 2024 220   Longwood W 80-64 86%     5 - 2 +13.1 +6.6 +6.4
  Dec 01, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 120-73 99%     6 - 2 +26.8 +18.9 +1.9
  Dec 07, 2024 15   @ St. John's L 71-88 18%     6 - 3 +1.3 +1.1 +1.6
  Dec 17, 2024 70   Drake W 68-64 64%    
  Dec 21, 2024 100   @ Wichita St. W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 30, 2024 27   Cincinnati L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 86   @ TCU L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 07, 2025 85   @ Oklahoma St. L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 6   Houston L 62-69 25%    
  Jan 14, 2025 25   Texas Tech L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 22, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 68-78 17%    
  Jan 25, 2025 42   West Virginia W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 85   Oklahoma St. W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 68-82 10%    
  Feb 04, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 10   Kansas L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 11, 2025 21   Arizona L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 44   @ BYU L 73-78 31%    
  Feb 17, 2025 66   @ Utah L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 23, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 82   @ Central Florida L 72-73 46%    
  Mar 02, 2025 73   Colorado W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 05, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati L 66-74 25%    
  Mar 08, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 71-79 24%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 4.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.0 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.7 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.0 7.1 9.9 12.5 13.6 13.0 11.6 9.3 6.6 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 90.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 49.6% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 20.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.6% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.4% 99.0% 5.6% 93.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
13-7 2.7% 95.8% 4.2% 91.7% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.6%
12-8 4.7% 87.0% 1.9% 85.1% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.6 86.8%
11-9 6.6% 68.0% 1.5% 66.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.1 67.5%
10-10 9.3% 39.9% 0.8% 39.2% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 0.2 5.6 39.5%
9-11 11.6% 12.6% 0.4% 12.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.2 10.2 12.2%
8-12 13.0% 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.8 1.6%
7-13 13.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.2%
6-14 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 12.5
5-15 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 9.9
4-16 7.1% 7.1
3-17 4.0% 4.0
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 18.9% 0.6% 18.3% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.1 18.4%