New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.7#346
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#307
Pace74.1#62
Improvement+0.1#177

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#333
First Shot-5.2#322
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#231
Layup/Dunks+0.3#177
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#339
Freethrows-1.7#279
Improvement+0.6#125

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#339
First Shot-5.2#337
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#223
Layups/Dunks-1.8#241
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#280
Freethrows-0.3#215
Improvement-0.5#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 0.3% 3.4% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.1% 19.2% 8.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.7% 15.8% 26.7%
First Four0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 31 - 51 - 13
Quad 47 - 118 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 64   @ Kansas St. L 65-89 3%     0 - 1 -12.4 +1.4 -14.9
  Nov 09, 2024 127   Troy L 61-78 15%     0 - 2 -17.8 -16.3 -0.1
  Nov 14, 2024 347   Lindenwood W 82-74 50%     1 - 2 -3.8 +1.7 -5.8
  Nov 15, 2024 323   Stonehill L 54-80 40%     1 - 3 -35.1 -23.6 -11.1
  Nov 17, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris L 62-73 19%     1 - 4 -13.5 -11.4 -1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 203   @ Tulane W 93-87 OT 12%     2 - 4 +6.9 +5.2 +0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 60-91 1%     2 - 5 -12.1 -1.6 -13.1
  Dec 07, 2024 243   @ Nicholls St. L 70-73 17%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -4.6 -1.7 -2.9
  Dec 15, 2024 43   @ Iowa L 57-104 2%     2 - 7 -32.9 -10.7 -23.1
  Dec 19, 2024 33   @ Texas L 60-87 0.5%   
  Dec 22, 2024 60   @ LSU L 65-89 1%    
  Dec 28, 2024 92   @ McNeese St. L 62-83 3%    
  Dec 30, 2024 57   @ Vanderbilt L 68-92 1%    
  Jan 04, 2025 233   UT Rio Grande Valley L 78-83 32%    
  Jan 06, 2025 190   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 72-79 24%    
  Jan 11, 2025 230   SE Louisiana L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 13, 2025 179   @ Lamar L 65-79 10%    
  Jan 18, 2025 357   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 20, 2025 296   @ Northwestern St. L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 356   Houston Christian W 75-71 66%    
  Jan 27, 2025 307   Incarnate Word L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 230   @ SE Louisiana L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 03, 2025 214   Stephen F. Austin L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 356   @ Houston Christian L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 10, 2025 307   @ Incarnate Word L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 92   McNeese St. L 65-80 10%    
  Feb 17, 2025 243   Nicholls St. L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 296   Northwestern St. L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 24, 2025 357   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-70 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 233   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 75-86 17%    
  Mar 03, 2025 190   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-82 12%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.1 6.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 15.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.8 7.2 8.3 4.0 0.6 0.0 23.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.0 7.5 6.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 21.0 11th
12th 0.5 2.3 4.7 5.3 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 17.2 12th
Total 0.5 2.3 5.5 9.7 13.6 15.3 15.2 13.5 9.6 6.6 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0
15-5 35.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.2% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-9 2.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.3
10-10 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.1
9-11 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.6
8-12 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
7-13 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.5
6-14 15.2% 15.2
5-15 15.3% 15.3
4-16 13.6% 13.6
3-17 9.7% 9.7
2-18 5.5% 5.5
1-19 2.3% 2.3
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%