IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-13.1	#353
Expected Predictive Rating	+3.3	#129

Pace	65.7	#292
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-7.9	#356

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.2	#337

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	0.5%	0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	14.0	15.6

.500 or above	3.0%	14.8%	2.9%
.500 or above in Conference	11.9%	23.3%	11.8%
Conference Champion	0.1%	1.6%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	28.6%	16.9%	28.7%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 6
Quad 3	0 - 5	0 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 12	8 - 23

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	45	@ Iowa	L	64-90	1%
Nov 06, 2024	252	@ South Dakota	L	67-79	14%
Nov 08, 2024	28	@ Texas A&M	L	55-87	1%	0 - 1			-16.4	-8.4	-9.2
Nov 13, 2024	273	Southern	W	70-68	34%	1 - 1			-6.9	-5.6	-1.3
Nov 19, 2024	1	@ Connecticut	L	48-85	0.0%
Nov 21, 2024	52	@ Oklahoma	L	55-81	1%
Nov 25, 2024	359	@ Stonehill	L	66-68	44%
Nov 30, 2024	150	Purdue Fort Wayne	L	66-77	16%
Dec 05, 2024	358	@ Houston Christian	L	71-73	43%
Dec 07, 2024	327	@ Incarnate Word	L	70-77	28%
Dec 15, 2024	198	South Alabama	L	64-72	24%
Dec 18, 2024	237	Abilene Christian	L	65-72	28%
Dec 21, 2024	120	@ South Florida	L	59-78	4%
Jan 04, 2025	99	McNeese St.	L	59-74	9%
Jan 06, 2025	212	Nicholls St.	L	64-71	27%
Jan 11, 2025	332	@ Northwestern St.	L	65-71	29%
Jan 13, 2025	269	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	68-78	18%
Jan 18, 2025	347	New Orleans	W	74-72	57%
Jan 20, 2025	276	SE Louisiana	L	65-69	36%
Jan 25, 2025	280	@ Lamar	L	65-75	20%
Jan 27, 2025	171	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	60-76	9%
Feb 01, 2025	332	Northwestern St.	L	68-69	49%
Feb 03, 2025	219	TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	66-73	27%
Feb 08, 2025	212	@ Nicholls St.	L	61-74	13%
Feb 10, 2025	99	@ McNeese St.	L	56-77	4%
Feb 15, 2025	280	Lamar	L	68-72	37%
Feb 17, 2025	171	Stephen F. Austin	L	63-73	21%
Feb 22, 2025	276	@ SE Louisiana	L	62-72	20%
Feb 24, 2025	347	@ New Orleans	L	71-75	37%
Mar 01, 2025	327	Incarnate Word	L	73-74	48%
Mar 03, 2025	358	Houston Christian	W	74-70	64%
Projected Record						8 - 23	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1							1.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0							2.3	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.3	1.4	0.5	0.1									3.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	1.8	2.1	0.9	0.1										5.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	2.6	3.0	1.2	0.1	0.0										7.6	7th
8th						0.1	0.8	3.5	4.4	1.6	0.2	0.0											10.6	8th
9th					0.1	1.2	4.3	5.3	2.0	0.2													13.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.3	2.2	5.8	6.0	2.1	0.2	0.0													16.5	10th
11th		0.1	0.9	3.9	6.9	5.4	1.8	0.3	0.0														19.3	11th
12th	1.0	3.2	5.8	5.6	3.2	0.9	0.1	0.0															19.8	12th

Total	1.0	3.3	6.7	9.8	12.4	13.3	13.1	11.8	9.8	7.0	5.0	3.2	1.9	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-3	50.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-4	48.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-5	13.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	4.8%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%																							0.0
18-2	0.0%																				0.0	0.0
17-3	0.0%																							0.0
16-4	0.1%		20.0%	20.0%		14.4															0.0	0.0		0.1
15-5	0.2%		10.4%	10.4%		15.6																0.0	0.0	0.2
14-6	0.4%		5.6%	5.6%		15.6																0.0	0.0	0.4
13-7	0.9%		2.1%	2.1%		15.7																0.0	0.0	0.9
12-8	1.9%		1.0%	1.0%		15.8																0.0	0.0	1.9
11-9	3.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
10-10	5.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
9-11	7.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.0
8-12	9.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.8
7-13	11.8%																							11.8
6-14	13.1%																							13.1
5-15	13.3%																							13.3
4-16	12.4%																							12.4
3-17	9.8%																							9.8
2-18	6.7%																							6.7
1-19	3.3%																							3.3
0-20	1.0%																							1.0

Total	100%		0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	99.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.5%