Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#145
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#147
Pace74.1#55
Improvement+0.3#165

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#82
First Shot+4.8#58
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#260
Layup/Dunks-2.2#265
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#9
Freethrows-0.1#179
Improvement-0.5#208

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#246
First Shot-3.6#288
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#83
Layups/Dunks-1.9#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#325
Freethrows+2.3#41
Improvement+0.7#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 26.1% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 37.1% 48.7% 26.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round22.7% 26.1% 19.6%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 36 - 46 - 7
Quad 414 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 68-75 19%     0 - 1 +3.5 -2.0 +5.7
  Nov 12, 2024 255   Bethune-Cookman W 91-69 81%     1 - 1 +13.9 +13.3 -0.6
  Nov 16, 2024 324   Southern Indiana W 93-74 90%     2 - 1 +6.4 +16.5 -9.6
  Nov 20, 2024 51   @ Penn St. L 89-102 13%     2 - 2 +0.3 +18.9 -18.3
  Nov 25, 2024 193   Drexel W 87-81 60%     3 - 2 +4.6 +22.2 -17.1
  Nov 26, 2024 204   Radford L 56-69 63%     3 - 3 -15.1 -14.7 -1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 354   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-57 87%     4 - 3 +9.3 +6.2 +4.5
  Dec 05, 2024 331   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-79 81%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -8.9 +4.2 -13.1
  Dec 08, 2024 216   Robert Morris W 82-77 75%     5 - 4 1 - 1 -0.8 -2.2 +0.7
  Dec 11, 2024 326   IU Indianapolis W 78-76 90%     6 - 4 2 - 1 -11.0 -1.1 -9.8
  Dec 15, 2024 313   @ Eastern Michigan W 121-94 76%     7 - 4 +21.1 +23.0 -6.7
  Dec 22, 2024 11   @ Michigan L 58-89 5%     7 - 5 -11.0 -6.5 -4.4
  Dec 29, 2024 333   @ Green Bay W 83-67 82%     8 - 5 3 - 1 +7.5 +8.0 +0.2
  Jan 01, 2025 235   @ Northern Kentucky L 68-69 OT 61%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -2.4 -1.9 -0.6
  Jan 04, 2025 208   Youngstown St. W 90-81 73%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +3.9 +6.5 -3.7
  Jan 08, 2025 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-73 64%     10 - 6 5 - 2 +2.5 -4.4 +6.4
  Jan 11, 2025 331   Detroit Mercy W 90-67 91%     11 - 6 6 - 2 +9.6 +17.0 -6.1
  Jan 15, 2025 177   @ Wright St. W 120-113 2OT 48%     12 - 6 7 - 2 +8.9 +17.8 -10.5
  Jan 22, 2025 178   @ Oakland L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 326   @ IU Indianapolis W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 30, 2025 173   Cleveland St. W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 02, 2025 161   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 05, 2025 177   Wright St. W 84-79 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 333   Green Bay W 88-73 93%    
  Feb 12, 2025 208   @ Youngstown St. W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 216   @ Robert Morris W 80-78 54%    
  Feb 21, 2025 178   Oakland W 74-69 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 235   Northern Kentucky W 76-68 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 173   @ Cleveland St. L 76-77 46%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 5.5 13.0 11.4 5.6 1.0 37.1 1st
2nd 0.2 5.3 13.1 7.3 1.3 0.0 27.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 8.4 3.6 0.2 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.7 3.4 0.1 9.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 3.0 0.3 5.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.2 0.4 3.5 6th
7th 0.3 1.0 0.5 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.5 11.9 17.7 22.3 20.6 12.7 5.7 1.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-3 99.6% 5.6    5.3 0.3
16-4 90.1% 11.4    9.2 2.2 0.1
15-5 63.4% 13.0    6.2 5.6 1.1 0.0
14-6 24.8% 5.5    0.9 2.3 1.8 0.5 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.1% 37.1 22.7 10.4 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.0% 40.2% 40.2% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6
17-3 5.7% 36.0% 36.0% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 3.6
16-4 12.7% 33.6% 33.6% 13.4 0.4 2.1 1.7 0.1 8.4
15-5 20.6% 27.3% 27.3% 13.8 0.2 1.4 3.2 0.9 14.9
14-6 22.3% 21.5% 21.5% 14.2 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.6 0.0 17.5
13-7 17.7% 18.6% 18.6% 14.4 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 14.4
12-8 11.9% 14.3% 14.3% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1 10.2
11-9 5.5% 7.1% 7.1% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 5.1
10-10 2.2% 8.8% 8.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
9-11 0.5% 0.5
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 1.2 5.5 10.2 5.4 0.3 77.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.1 12.2 63.4 24.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%