Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#20
Expected Predictive Rating+13.9#38
Pace71.5#106
Improvement-0.1#191

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#31
First Shot+5.4#46
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#102
Layup/Dunks+8.2#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#145
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement-0.5#227

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#13
First Shot+7.2#16
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#165
Layups/Dunks+4.3#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#147
Freethrows+2.7#36
Improvement+0.5#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.6% 4.9% 1.7%
Top 2 Seed 11.1% 14.7% 5.9%
Top 4 Seed 34.7% 42.1% 24.2%
Top 6 Seed 59.2% 67.7% 47.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.9% 93.9% 84.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.7% 93.1% 82.7%
Average Seed 5.5 5.1 6.1
.500 or above 97.4% 99.0% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 90.9% 85.1%
Conference Champion 19.4% 22.2% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four2.5% 1.7% 3.7%
First Round88.7% 93.1% 82.4%
Second Round65.0% 71.0% 56.5%
Sweet Sixteen32.8% 37.6% 25.9%
Elite Eight14.5% 17.1% 10.9%
Final Four6.1% 7.2% 4.4%
Championship Game2.5% 3.1% 1.7%
National Champion0.9% 1.2% 0.5%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Neutral) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 8
Quad 26 - 214 - 10
Quad 35 - 019 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 241   Cleveland St. W 101-53 97%     1 - 0 +40.8 +20.7 +17.0
  Nov 10, 2024 94   Wake Forest L 70-72 79%     1 - 1 +3.8 +3.9 -0.2
  Nov 15, 2024 86   TCU W 76-64 85%     2 - 1 +15.3 +5.1 +9.8
  Nov 18, 2024 195   Miami (OH) W 94-67 95%     3 - 1 +22.4 +16.2 +5.1
  Nov 21, 2024 303   Tarleton St. W 72-49 98%     4 - 1 +12.4 +2.3 +11.9
  Nov 25, 2024 125   Virginia Tech W 75-63 87%     5 - 1 +14.2 +3.9 +10.4
  Nov 27, 2024 53   Xavier W 78-53 67%     6 - 1 +35.0 +9.5 +25.2
  Dec 03, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin W 67-64 47%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +18.1 +1.4 +16.8
  Dec 07, 2024 43   Iowa W 85-83 73%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +10.1 +8.5 +1.5
  Dec 10, 2024 29   Arkansas L 87-89 56%     8 - 2 +10.8 +12.4 -1.4
  Dec 18, 2024 37   Oklahoma W 75-73 59%    
  Dec 22, 2024 152   Purdue Fort Wayne W 88-71 95%    
  Dec 29, 2024 106   Western Kentucky W 83-70 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 80   @ USC W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 07, 2025 17   @ UCLA L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 12, 2025 96   Washington W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 16, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 19, 2025 59   Northwestern W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 24, 2025 22   @ Purdue L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 27, 2025 31   Penn St. W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 62   @ Rutgers W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 05, 2025 23   Oregon W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 46   @ Indiana W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 22   Purdue W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 39   @ Ohio St. L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 21, 2025 14   Michigan St. W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 52   @ Nebraska W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 62   Rutgers W 80-71 78%    
  Mar 02, 2025 16   Illinois W 78-76 58%    
  Mar 05, 2025 19   Maryland W 77-74 61%    
  Mar 09, 2025 14   @ Michigan St. L 70-74 36%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 5.7 4.4 2.3 0.8 0.2 19.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 4.9 5.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.1 4.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 5.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 4.0 0.8 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.8 1.7 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.4 5.5 8.4 11.2 13.6 14.6 13.4 11.4 7.9 4.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.7% 0.8    0.7 0.0
18-2 99.0% 2.3    2.2 0.1 0.0
17-3 91.3% 4.4    3.7 0.7 0.0
16-4 71.9% 5.7    3.3 2.0 0.4 0.0
15-5 38.9% 4.4    1.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.9% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 11.7 5.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 42.0% 58.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.4% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.8 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.8% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2.2 1.0 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.9% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.9 0.7 2.2 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.4% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 3.7 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.4% 100.0% 15.3% 84.6% 4.6 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.8 3.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 14.6% 99.7% 9.8% 89.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.7 4.0 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 13.6% 98.6% 5.7% 92.9% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.1 3.6 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.5%
11-9 11.2% 94.9% 3.5% 91.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.6 94.7%
10-10 8.4% 83.1% 2.0% 81.2% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.4 82.8%
9-11 5.5% 53.6% 1.3% 52.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.1 2.5 52.9%
8-12 3.4% 20.9% 0.8% 20.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.7 20.2%
7-13 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.9%
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 89.9% 10.7% 79.2% 5.5 3.6 7.5 11.3 12.3 12.6 11.9 10.6 8.4 5.4 3.6 2.5 0.2 10.1 88.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.7