Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#25
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#166
Pace68.4#207
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#36
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.5% 4.4% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 8.6% 10.5% 3.6%
Top 4 Seed 23.1% 27.2% 12.0%
Top 6 Seed 38.3% 43.8% 23.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.1% 72.1% 50.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.1% 69.2% 47.5%
Average Seed 5.9 5.7 6.7
.500 or above 79.1% 84.8% 63.7%
.500 or above in Conference 67.1% 71.2% 56.2%
Conference Champion 10.6% 12.4% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 2.5% 5.5%
First Four4.3% 4.1% 4.9%
First Round64.0% 70.1% 47.7%
Second Round44.8% 50.0% 30.8%
Sweet Sixteen22.4% 25.6% 13.6%
Elite Eight10.3% 12.0% 5.9%
Final Four4.6% 5.5% 2.2%
Championship Game2.0% 2.4% 0.9%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 72.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 46 - 9
Quad 26 - 312 - 12
Quad 34 - 116 - 12
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 220   Cleveland St. W 101-53 95%     1 - 0 +41.9 +18.8 +20.0
  Nov 10, 2024 62   Wake Forest L 70-72 66%     1 - 1 +6.6 +2.6 +4.0
  Nov 15, 2024 53   TCU W 78-72 73%    
  Nov 18, 2024 213   Miami (OH) W 81-62 96%    
  Nov 21, 2024 299   Tarleton St. W 82-59 98%    
  Nov 25, 2024 82   Virginia Tech W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 03, 2024 38   @ Wisconsin L 70-71 45%    
  Dec 07, 2024 45   Iowa W 84-78 70%    
  Dec 10, 2024 19   Arkansas L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 18, 2024 52   Oklahoma W 73-70 62%    
  Dec 22, 2024 150   Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-68 90%    
  Dec 29, 2024 118   Western Kentucky W 86-73 87%    
  Jan 04, 2025 65   @ USC W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 07, 2025 30   @ UCLA L 65-68 42%    
  Jan 12, 2025 79   Washington W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 16, 2025 88   @ Minnesota W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 19, 2025 50   Northwestern W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 24, 2025 15   @ Purdue L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 27, 2025 36   Penn St. W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 37   @ Rutgers L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 39   Oregon W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 24   @ Indiana L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 11, 2025 15   Purdue W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 16, 2025 17   @ Ohio St. L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 21, 2025 27   Michigan St. W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 24, 2025 67   @ Nebraska W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 27, 2025 37   Rutgers W 73-68 65%    
  Mar 02, 2025 20   Illinois W 77-74 59%    
  Mar 05, 2025 31   Maryland W 71-67 63%    
  Mar 09, 2025 27   @ Michigan St. L 71-74 40%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 10.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.2 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.4 0.2 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.0 1.8 0.1 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.4 0.1 4.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 16th
17th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.8 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.2 6.0 7.7 9.2 10.4 11.0 10.9 9.8 8.6 6.6 5.0 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 97.3% 1.4    1.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 84.8% 2.3    1.8 0.5 0.0
16-4 66.2% 3.3    1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 31.8% 2.1    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.6% 10.6 6.4 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.7% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 2.0 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.0% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 2.7 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.6% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.5 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.6% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 4.5 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.2 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.8% 99.4% 12.0% 87.3% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
12-8 10.9% 96.1% 5.9% 90.2% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.8%
11-9 11.0% 86.9% 3.3% 83.6% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.4 86.5%
10-10 10.4% 67.2% 2.1% 65.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.4 66.5%
9-11 9.2% 34.9% 0.9% 33.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 6.0 34.2%
8-12 7.7% 12.6% 0.5% 12.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.7 12.1%
7-13 6.0% 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 1.2%
6-14 4.2% 4.2
5-15 2.9% 2.9
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 66.1% 8.1% 58.0% 5.9 3.5 5.2 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.6 7.2 6.2 5.1 4.1 4.2 0.9 0.0 33.9 63.1%