UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#95
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#77
Pace65.4#272
Improvement+2.7#36

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#101
First Shot+4.9#54
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#295
Layup/Dunks+0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#14
Freethrows+0.9#125
Improvement+0.8#116

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#100
First Shot-0.1#170
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#19
Layups/Dunks+5.6#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#355
Freethrows+0.8#133
Improvement+1.9#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.8% 33.4% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.0 11.6 12.2
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.2% 98.2%
Conference Champion 37.3% 44.6% 35.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round27.7% 33.0% 26.2%
Second Round6.1% 8.7% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.0% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 4
Quad 39 - 311 - 7
Quad 413 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 45   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 22%     0 - 1 +9.0 -3.2 +11.8
  Nov 09, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 94-76 87%     1 - 1 +11.5 +15.6 -4.6
  Nov 12, 2024 329   Sacramento St. W 64-54 95%     2 - 1 -3.0 -5.3 +3.5
  Nov 16, 2024 140   Seattle L 71-84 76%     2 - 2 -14.9 +2.6 -18.5
  Nov 21, 2024 155   La Salle W 72-67 70%     3 - 2 +5.3 -2.2 +7.4
  Nov 22, 2024 112   James Madison W 73-67 58%     4 - 2 +9.6 +11.0 -0.6
  Nov 23, 2024 206   Toledo W 80-45 78%     5 - 2 +32.7 +4.9 +29.1
  Dec 05, 2024 136   @ UC Santa Barbara W 84-76 55%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +12.4 +14.6 -2.0
  Dec 07, 2024 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-60 89%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +13.3 +5.4 +8.1
  Dec 15, 2024 291   @ Idaho W 80-56 82%     8 - 2 +20.2 +6.2 +15.1
  Dec 17, 2024 47   @ Utah St. L 68-76 22%    
  Dec 21, 2024 315   @ San Diego W 76-65 86%    
  Jan 04, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 71-62 80%    
  Jan 09, 2025 249   Cal Poly W 86-72 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 63   UC Irvine L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 16, 2025 272   @ Long Beach St. W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 23, 2025 136   UC Santa Barbara W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 148   Cal St. Northridge W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 31, 2025 174   @ Hawaii W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 06, 2025 177   UC Riverside W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 63   @ UC Irvine L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 13, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 184   UC Davis W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 20, 2025 249   @ Cal Poly W 83-75 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 174   Hawaii W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 148   @ Cal St. Northridge W 75-73 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-59 91%    
  Mar 06, 2025 272   Long Beach St. W 75-60 91%    
  Mar 08, 2025 184   @ UC Davis W 71-67 63%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 8.0 10.4 8.1 4.2 1.0 37.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.9 8.9 11.4 8.2 3.8 0.7 37.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.8 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.8 10.2 14.0 16.7 16.3 14.1 8.8 4.2 1.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 4.2    4.0 0.2
18-2 91.9% 8.1    6.9 1.2
17-3 73.4% 10.4    7.5 2.9 0.0
16-4 49.0% 8.0    4.6 3.2 0.2
15-5 25.0% 4.2    1.7 2.0 0.5 0.0
14-6 9.0% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.3% 37.3 26.0 10.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 63.4% 55.6% 7.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 17.5%
19-1 4.2% 50.9% 48.3% 2.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.1 5.0%
18-2 8.8% 46.0% 45.5% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.1 4.8 0.9%
17-3 14.1% 38.6% 38.6% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 1.0 3.9 0.6 8.7 0.0%
16-4 16.3% 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 12.2 0.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 11.0 0.0%
15-5 16.7% 27.8% 27.8% 12.4 0.1 2.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.1
14-6 14.0% 21.3% 21.3% 12.6 0.0 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.1
13-7 10.2% 15.5% 15.5% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.6
12-8 6.8% 9.6% 9.6% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.2
11-9 4.0% 5.9% 5.9% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
10-10 2.1% 4.2% 4.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
9-11 1.0% 2.6% 2.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.8% 27.6% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 4.3 15.9 5.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 72.2 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.7 4.0 5.0 19.0 27.0 13.0 10.0 13.0 6.0 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 50.0% 9.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 6.3 6.3 21.9 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 36.4% 10.6 4.5 4.5 27.3