UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#136
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#172
Pace66.6#242
Improvement-3.1#335

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#116
First Shot+1.8#128
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#155
Layup/Dunks-2.3#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#37
Freethrows-1.3#263
Improvement-2.6#342

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#196
First Shot+1.6#123
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#331
Layups/Dunks+1.5#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#191
Freethrows+1.7#69
Improvement-0.6#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 7.6% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 86.7% 92.8% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 72.0% 62.3%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.2% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.9% 3.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.4% 7.6% 5.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 412 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 312   @ Portland W 94-53 74%     1 - 0 +35.7 +16.8 +17.7
  Nov 13, 2024 256   Fresno St. W 91-86 82%     2 - 0 -3.3 +4.8 -8.7
  Nov 17, 2024 185   @ San Jose St. W 64-59 48%     3 - 0 +6.8 +4.2 +3.7
  Nov 20, 2024 132   UTEP L 76-79 61%     3 - 1 -4.5 +7.0 -11.6
  Nov 26, 2024 251   Eastern Washington W 67-51 81%     4 - 1 +7.9 -5.2 +15.0
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-48 98%     5 - 1 +8.8 +15.2 +0.4
  Dec 05, 2024 95   UC San Diego L 76-84 45%     5 - 2 0 - 1 -5.3 +7.1 -12.7
  Dec 07, 2024 184   @ UC Davis L 60-71 48%     5 - 3 0 - 2 -9.2 -4.3 -5.6
  Dec 14, 2024 331   Green Bay W 83-66 91%     6 - 3 +3.8 -1.9 +4.8
  Dec 18, 2024 189   @ Loyola Marymount L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 22, 2024 191   @ Missouri St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 03, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 249   @ Cal Poly W 83-80 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 177   UC Riverside W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 184   UC Davis W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 23, 2025 95   @ UC San Diego L 67-74 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 71-67 66%    
  Jan 30, 2025 148   Cal St. Northridge W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 272   Long Beach St. W 75-65 83%    
  Feb 06, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 174   Hawaii W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 63   @ UC Irvine L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 177   @ UC Riverside L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 20, 2025 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 272   @ Long Beach St. W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 249   Cal Poly W 86-77 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 148   @ Cal St. Northridge L 76-78 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 63   UC Irvine L 68-72 34%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 6.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 18.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 6.2 6.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 6.4 5.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.3 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 3.8 0.9 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.9 8.8 12.0 14.2 14.8 13.7 10.7 7.4 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 81.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 47.6% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 20.9% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 29.0% 29.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.5% 39.0% 39.0% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.6% 29.4% 29.4% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-5 4.1% 23.0% 23.0% 12.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.1
14-6 7.4% 16.2% 16.2% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.2
13-7 10.7% 11.0% 11.0% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.6
12-8 13.7% 6.6% 6.6% 13.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 12.8
11-9 14.8% 4.9% 4.9% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 14.0
10-10 14.2% 3.1% 3.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 13.8
9-11 12.0% 1.7% 1.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8
8-12 8.8% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
7-13 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 5.9
6-14 3.4% 3.4
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 93.6 0.0%