UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#117
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#64
Pace73.0#86
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#164
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 18.0% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 12.9
.500 or above 92.4% 96.0% 85.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 89.0% 79.2%
Conference Champion 17.8% 20.9% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.2%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round15.5% 17.9% 10.9%
Second Round3.1% 3.7% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 47 - 7
Quad 414 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 307   @ Portland W 94-53 77%     1 - 0 +36.5 +15.9 +19.3
  Nov 13, 2024 234   Fresno St. W 91-86 82%     2 - 0 -1.4 +3.7 -5.9
  Nov 17, 2024 251   @ San Jose St. W 75-71 66%    
  Nov 20, 2024 194   UTEP W 79-71 78%    
  Nov 26, 2024 228   Eastern Washington W 86-77 81%    
  Nov 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-57 99%    
  Dec 05, 2024 132   UC San Diego W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 07, 2024 168   @ UC Davis W 77-76 52%    
  Dec 14, 2024 290   Green Bay W 85-72 87%    
  Dec 18, 2024 164   @ Loyola Marymount W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 22, 2024 195   @ Missouri St. W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 03, 2025 175   @ Hawaii W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 261   Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 11, 2025 333   @ Cal Poly W 84-74 81%    
  Jan 16, 2025 155   UC Riverside W 80-74 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 168   UC Davis W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 23, 2025 132   @ UC San Diego L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 262   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 30, 2025 202   Cal St. Northridge W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 250   Long Beach St. W 85-75 82%    
  Feb 06, 2025 261   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 175   Hawaii W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 13, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 69-78 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 155   @ UC Riverside L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 20, 2025 262   Cal St. Fullerton W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 250   @ Long Beach St. W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 27, 2025 333   Cal Poly W 87-71 91%    
  Mar 01, 2025 202   @ Cal St. Northridge W 81-79 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 72-75 41%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 4.1 4.6 3.6 1.8 0.4 17.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 6.0 6.6 4.9 2.0 0.3 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.3 5.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.1 5.0 3.0 0.8 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 11.0 12.2 12.6 11.0 9.3 6.5 4.0 1.8 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.1
18-2 91.6% 3.6    3.1 0.5
17-3 69.8% 4.6    3.2 1.3 0.0
16-4 44.1% 4.1    2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 21.3% 2.3    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 11.6 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 79.7% 60.9% 18.8% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 48.0%
19-1 1.8% 56.2% 48.3% 7.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 15.2%
18-2 4.0% 45.0% 42.7% 2.3% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 4.0%
17-3 6.5% 38.8% 38.6% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.0 0.4%
16-4 9.3% 30.4% 30.3% 0.1% 12.4 0.1 1.5 1.0 0.2 6.5 0.1%
15-5 11.0% 22.3% 22.3% 12.8 0.0 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 8.6
14-6 12.6% 15.5% 15.5% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 10.6
13-7 12.2% 10.5% 10.5% 13.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 11.0
12-8 11.0% 6.7% 6.7% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.2
11-9 9.3% 3.9% 3.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.9
10-10 7.6% 2.7% 2.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.4
9-11 5.5% 1.5% 1.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
8-12 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
7-13 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.4% 1.4
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 15.6% 15.3% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.6 5.8 4.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 84.4 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.6 2.7 16.2 10.8 16.2 21.6 21.6 5.4 2.7 2.7