UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#141
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#119
Pace64.3#312
Improvement+0.7#138

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#74
First Shot+4.2#69
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#167
Layup/Dunks-2.6#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#91
Freethrows+3.8#20
Improvement-1.1#268

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#272
First Shot-3.5#292
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#166
Layups/Dunks+2.2#98
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#226
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#286
Freethrows-2.5#318
Improvement+1.8#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 15.7% 11.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 92.4% 97.0% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 92.0% 87.5%
Conference Champion 14.3% 18.4% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.9% 15.7% 11.7%
Second Round1.1% 1.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Neutral) - 30.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 182 San Jose St. W 85-74 72%     1 - 0 +6.4 +20.1 -12.4
  Tue, Nov 11 278 @Sacramento St. W 92-87 67%     2 - 0 +1.9 +14.3 -12.7
  Mon, Nov 17 140 Loyola Marymount L 74-78 OT 61%     2 - 1 -5.6 -0.8 -4.6
  Sat, Nov 22 106 @Nevada L 64-77 28%     2 - 2 -5.7 -3.4 -2.6
  Fri, Nov 28 307 Lehigh W 72-70 81%     3 - 2 -6.1 +2.2 -8.2
  Sat, Nov 29 113 Seattle W 74-71 41%     4 - 2 +6.6 +13.3 -6.3
  Thu, Dec 4 280 Long Beach St. W 84-77 OT 84%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -2.5 +1.8 -4.7
  Sat, Dec 6 295 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109-84 86%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +14.6 +26.6 -13.0
  Sat, Dec 13 83 Utah Valley L 71-76 30%    
  Wed, Dec 17 273 @Green Bay W 75-71 65%    
  Mon, Dec 22 275 Portland W 81-71 83%    
  Thu, Jan 1 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 85-79 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 261 @Cal St. Northridge W 81-77 63%    
  Thu, Jan 8 170 UC Davis W 74-69 69%    
  Thu, Jan 15 295 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-73 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 104 Hawaii L 74-75 49%    
  Thu, Jan 22 252 Cal Poly W 87-78 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 280 @Long Beach St. W 76-71 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 103 @UC San Diego L 73-79 28%    
  Sat, Jan 31 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 88-76 86%    
  Thu, Feb 5 170 @UC Davis L 71-72 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 120 UC Irvine W 71-70 55%    
  Thu, Feb 12 258 @UC Riverside W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 252 @Cal Poly W 84-81 62%    
  Thu, Feb 19 261 Cal St. Northridge W 84-74 80%    
  Sun, Feb 22 104 @Hawaii L 71-77 29%    
  Thu, Feb 26 258 UC Riverside W 79-69 81%    
  Sat, Feb 28 120 @UC Irvine L 68-73 34%    
  Sat, Mar 7 103 UC San Diego L 75-76 48%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.3 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 14.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 6.3 3.8 0.9 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.8 6.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 20.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.3 7.4 5.3 1.6 0.1 19.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.5 7.9 11.2 13.8 14.6 13.5 11.5 8.5 4.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 96.1% 2.2    2.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 81.0% 3.9    2.7 1.0 0.1
16-4 50.2% 4.3    2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0
15-5 20.6% 2.4    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.3% 14.3 8.5 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 36.1% 36.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.8% 49.2% 48.7% 0.4% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.8%
18-2 2.3% 37.7% 37.7% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4
17-3 4.8% 33.5% 33.5% 12.6 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.2
16-4 8.5% 27.3% 27.3% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 6.2
15-5 11.5% 22.0% 22.0% 13.2 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.0 9.0
14-6 13.5% 16.6% 16.6% 13.5 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 11.2
13-7 14.6% 9.5% 9.5% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 13.2
12-8 13.8% 5.9% 5.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 13.0
11-9 11.2% 4.0% 4.0% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.7
10-10 7.9% 2.6% 2.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7
9-11 5.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
8-12 3.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.0
7-13 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.0% 12.9% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 87.1 0.0%