UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.9 #144
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #177
Pace 63.5 #323
Improvement +2.5 #66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #81 A- C D+ B- C
Defense #273 D C C D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #215 1.26 #78 +1.1 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.77 #153 -0.5 #203
Three Pointers 44% #119 1.19 #10 +5.6 #31
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #37 +6.1 #37
Freethrows 18.0 #167 77% #29 13.9 #115
Second Chance 32.6% #128 1.01 #228 0.33 #151
Turnovers 17.8% #267
Total Offense +4.1 #81

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #207 1.22 #257 -0.7 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #197 0.94 #361 -1.5 #302
Three Pointers 42% #138 1.03 #211 -1.1 #229
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #284 -3.3 #285
Freethrows 21.3 #334 71% #125 15.2 #324
Second Chance 27.7% #81 1.16 #317 0.32 #191
Turnovers 16.6% #176
Total Defense -3.2 #273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #181 0.1% #174
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.7% #27 6.4% #300
Possession Length 18.6 #300 17.9 #266
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #290 0.16 #144
Improvement +1.2 #116 +1.4 #103

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 13.5% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 90.3% 95.4% 82.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 94.5% 79.5%
Conference Champion 8.2% 11.3% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.5% 13.5% 8.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 412 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 238 San Jose St. W 85 - 74 78% +9  1 - 0 +4 +17 A+ C+ B -12 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 290 @Sacramento St. W 92 - 87 69% +6  2 - 0 +1 +12 B- C A+ -12 F B- C+
 Mon, Nov 17 155 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 78 OT 64% +3  2 - 1 -7 -1 D+ C+ A+ -6 D+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 22 80 @Nevada L 64 - 77 18% -8  2 - 2 -3 -3 D- B+ F +0 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 307 Lehigh W 72 - 70 81% -1  3 - 2 -6 +2 F D+ A- -8 C- D- B
 Sat, Nov 29 121 Seattle W 74 - 71 43% +1  4 - 2 +6 +16 A+ A+ F -10 F D+ F
 Thu, Dec 4 250 Long Beach St. W 84 - 77 OT 80% +1  5 - 2 1 - 0 -1 +3 B F D- -4 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109 - 84 86% +14  6 - 2 2 - 0 +14 +28 A+ A+ B+ -14 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 107 Utah Valley L 53 - 68 37% -12  6 - 3 -11 -15 F C- F +4 A A+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 255 @Green Bay L 64 - 67 61% -8  6 - 4 -5 +2 A+ C F -8 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 210 Portland W 79 - 61 75% +11  7 - 4 +12 +12 A+ C+ F +2 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 1 229 @Cal St. Fullerton L 84 - 95 57% -13  7 - 5 2 - 1 -12 +5 A+ C- F -16 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 3 207 @Cal St. Northridge L 65 - 74 53% -6  7 - 6 2 - 2 -9 -11 F F F +2 C- C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 181 UC Davis L 86 - 93 70% +3  7 - 7 2 - 3 -11 +9 A+ F A+ -21 F F D
 Thu, Jan 15 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 69 71% +9  8 - 7 3 - 3 +1 +11 B F C -9 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 106 Hawaii W 77 - 62 48% +12  9 - 7 4 - 3 +16 +19 A+ A F -1 C+ B B+
 Thu, Jan 22 281 Cal Poly W 107 - 67 84% +24  10 - 7 5 - 3 +30 +34 A+ A+ B -2 D A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 250 @Long Beach St. W 76 - 73 61%
 Thu, Jan 29 109 @UC San Diego L 71 - 77 29%
 Sat, Jan 31 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 83 - 75 77%
 Thu, Feb 5 181 @UC Davis L 75 - 76 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 123 UC Irvine W 72 - 71 55%
 Thu, Feb 12 293 @UC Riverside W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 281 @Cal Poly W 84 - 79 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 207 Cal St. Northridge W 84 - 77 74%
 Sun, Feb 22 106 @Hawaii L 68 - 75 27%
 Thu, Feb 26 293 UC Riverside W 80 - 68 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 123 @UC Irvine L 69 - 74 34%
 Sat, Mar 7 109 UC San Diego W 75 - 74 50%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 8 +1 +4 A- C D+ -3 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.4 1.5 0.2 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.4 6.1 1.9 0.2 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 7.9 9.3 2.2 0.1 20.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 9.4 10.3 2.3 0.1 24.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.3 6.7 1.6 0.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.1 1.1 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 7.4 13.4 18.7 20.8 17.6 11.0 5.4 1.7 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 88.0% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 63.9% 3.4    1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 23.3% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.1
13-7 2.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 3.3 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 51.3% 51.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.7% 34.9% 34.9% 12.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.1
15-5 5.4% 28.2% 28.2% 13.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.9
14-6 11.0% 21.9% 21.9% 13.3 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 8.6
13-7 17.6% 16.3% 16.3% 13.6 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.2 14.7
12-8 20.8% 10.8% 10.8% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 18.5
11-9 18.7% 5.6% 5.6% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 17.6
10-10 13.4% 3.9% 3.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.8
9-11 7.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2
8-12 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.0
7-13 0.8% 0.8
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 13.6 88.5 0.0%