San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#185
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#205
Pace64.6#308
Improvement+1.6#61

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#184
First Shot-2.4#241
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#85
Layup/Dunks-5.5#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#264
Freethrows-0.8#217
Improvement-0.8#246

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#204
First Shot-1.0#207
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#196
Layups/Dunks-5.0#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#225
Freethrows+4.0#13
Improvement+2.4#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.6
.500 or above 8.3% 10.0% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 14.3% 15.8% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 9.4% 15.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 81 - 11
Quad 34 - 85 - 19
Quad 46 - 111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 117 @Utah L 75-84 22%     0 - 1 -2.8 +4.0 -6.8
  Sat, Nov 8 148 @UC Santa Barbara L 74-85 30%     0 - 2 -7.5 +8.8 -17.6
  Thu, Nov 13 10 @Michigan St. L 60-79 2%     0 - 3 +3.0 +3.1 -1.1
  Fri, Nov 21 201 Southern W 80-66 64%     1 - 3 +8.5 +6.5 +2.0
  Tue, Nov 25 91 Tulsa L 51-81 24%     1 - 4 -24.4 -13.6 -15.1
  Wed, Nov 26 259 Loyola Chicago W 63-51 64%     2 - 4 +6.5 -1.0 +9.9
  Sun, Nov 30 125 UC Irvine L 63-72 44%     2 - 5 -9.2 -0.7 -9.0
  Fri, Dec 5 262 San Diego W 86-69 75%     3 - 5 +8.3 +4.0 +3.6
  Tue, Dec 9 286 Long Beach St. W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Dec 13 84 Stanford L 71-76 31%    
  Sat, Dec 20 103 @New Mexico L 70-79 19%    
  Tue, Dec 30 52 San Diego St. L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Jan 3 51 @Utah St. L 65-80 8%    
  Tue, Jan 6 179 Fresno St. W 75-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 94 @Grand Canyon L 65-75 18%    
  Tue, Jan 13 332 Air Force W 72-61 85%    
  Sat, Jan 17 131 UNLV L 77-78 47%    
  Tue, Jan 20 105 @Nevada L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 106 @Wyoming L 67-76 20%    
  Tue, Jan 27 59 Boise St. L 64-72 23%    
  Sat, Jan 31 103 New Mexico L 73-76 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 74 @Colorado St. L 64-76 14%    
  Tue, Feb 10 131 @UNLV L 74-81 27%    
  Sat, Feb 14 94 Grand Canyon L 68-72 36%    
  Tue, Feb 17 105 Nevada L 69-72 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 59 @Boise St. L 61-75 11%    
  Tue, Feb 24 332 @Air Force W 69-64 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 74 Colorado St. L 67-73 29%    
  Tue, Mar 3 179 @Fresno St. L 72-75 38%    
  Sat, Mar 7 106 Wyoming L 70-73 39%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.0 0.3 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.9 6.3 4.8 0.9 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.6 8.1 5.0 1.2 0.1 22.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 5.2 7.9 6.8 3.5 0.7 0.0 25.9 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.8 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.3 7.3 10.6 13.2 14.8 14.1 12.1 9.0 6.3 4.0 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 95.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 21.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 12.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.4% 5.7% 5.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.2% 7.4% 7.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 1.1
12-8 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-9 4.0% 1.7% 1.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
10-10 6.3% 0.4% 0.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 6.3
9-11 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9
8-12 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 12.0
7-13 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
6-14 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
5-15 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-16 10.6% 10.6
3-17 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
2-18 3.3% 3.3
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6 0.0%