Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
42 Utah St. 85.8%   10   23 - 6 14 - 5 +13.0      +8.6 35 +4.4 63 68.5 177 +13.4 41 +12.6 1
48 San Diego St. 40.2%   18 - 10 13 - 6 +11.4      +3.5 90 +8.0 22 70.8 112 +10.1 59 +11.3 2
53 New Mexico 40.2%   21 - 8 13 - 6 +10.5      +4.7 75 +5.8 41 74.2 40 +10.8 55 +10.1 3
59 Boise St. 17.6%   18 - 10 11 - 8 +9.4      +5.9 59 +3.5 80 64.9 273 +9.9 62 +8.4 5
62 Grand Canyon 12.2%   19 - 11 12 - 7 +9.2      +1.2 135 +8.0 21 69.4 149 +7.8 78 +9.5 4
81 Nevada 5.5%   19 - 11 11 - 8 +7.3      +4.2 84 +3.1 87 64.4 290 +8.2 71 +8.3 6
85 Colorado St. 4.2%   19 - 10 11 - 8 +6.8      +6.7 50 +0.1 169 60.3 358 +8.2 72 +7.7 7
100 Wyoming 0.9%   16 - 13 8 - 11 +4.8      +3.4 93 +1.4 133 66.5 237 +4.6 105 +3.9 9
103 UNLV 1.4%   15 - 14 11 - 8 +4.3      +4.5 78 -0.1 175 73.7 49 +4.6 104 +7.6 8
129 Fresno St. 0.3%   12 - 17 7 - 12 +2.0      -0.9 186 +2.8 92 70.5 122 -0.1 158 +1.4 10
223 San Jose St. 0.0%   7 - 22 3 - 16 -3.7      +0.9 140 -4.6 310 63.7 307 -4.3 239 -6.0 11
344 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 27 0 - 19 -12.9      -8.4 347 -4.5 304 65.7 257 -12.9 343 -15.3 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Mar 3 103 UNLV 92 42 Utah St. 65   
Tue, Mar 3 59 Boise St. 86 48 San Diego St. 77   
Tue, Mar 3 129 Fresno St. 82 223 San Jose St. 68   
Tue, Mar 3 81 Nevada 73 100 Wyoming 83   
Tue, Mar 3 344 Air Force 60 62 Grand Canyon 86   
Wed, Mar 4 53 New Mexico 74 85 Colorado St. 82   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Mar 6 48 San Diego St. 83 103 UNLV 73 83%   
Sat, Mar 7 53 New Mexico 76 42 Utah St. 81 70%   
Sat, Mar 7 59 Boise St. 71 85 Colorado St. 72 51%   
Sat, Mar 7 129 Fresno St. 65 62 Grand Canyon 76 83%   
Sat, Mar 7 223 San Jose St. 71 100 Wyoming 77 70%   
Sat, Mar 7 344 Air Force 58 81 Nevada 81 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 1.0 100.0
San Diego St. 1.8 24.7 70.3 5.1
New Mexico 2.3 29.7 12.0 58.3
Grand Canyon 3.3 10.1 52.8 37.1
Nevada 4.9 16.4 82.2 1.3 0.2
Colorado St. 6.0 8.6 42.7 0.7 39.9 8.2
Boise St. 6.0 8.0 40.7 0.6 42.0 8.7
UNLV 6.6 2.7 14.4 1.3 81.7
Wyoming 9.0 100.0
Fresno St. 9.9 5.1 94.9
San Jose St. 11.0 100.0
Air Force 12.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 15 - 5 24 - 6 29.7 70.3
San Diego St. 14 - 6 19 - 10 17.1 83.0
New Mexico 13 - 7 21 - 9 70.3 29.7
Grand Canyon 13 - 7 20 - 11 16.6 83.4
Nevada 12 - 8 20 - 11 1.5 98.5
Colorado St. 12 - 8 20 - 10 48.7 51.3
Boise St. 11 - 9 18 - 11 51.3 48.7
UNLV 11 - 9 15 - 15 83.0 17.1
Wyoming 9 - 11 17 - 13 29.6 70.4
Fresno St. 7 - 13 12 - 18 83.4 16.6
San Jose St. 3 - 17 7 - 23 70.4 29.6
Air Force 0 - 20 3 - 28 98.5 1.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 100.0% 70.3 5.1 24.7
San Diego St. 24.7% 24.7
New Mexico 29.7% 5.1 24.7
Grand Canyon
Nevada
Colorado St.
Boise St.
UNLV
Wyoming
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 85.8% 29.0% 56.8% 10   0.0 0.1 2.2 6.2 15.4 23.5 28.6 9.8 0.0 14.2 80.0%
San Diego St. 40.2% 24.4% 15.8% 0.2 1.4 8.3 28.8 1.6 59.8 20.9%
New Mexico 40.2% 16.2% 24.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 9.7 26.6 1.3 59.8 28.6%
Boise St. 17.6% 7.5% 10.1% 0.0 0.6 3.2 12.9 0.9 82.4 10.9%
Grand Canyon 12.2% 11.2% 1.0% 0.1 1.2 9.7 1.2 87.8 1.2%
Nevada 5.5% 5.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 4.1 1.3 0.0 94.5 0.3%
Colorado St. 4.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.3 3.3 0.7 95.8 0.2%
Wyoming 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 99.1 0.0%
UNLV 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.4 0.8 0.1 98.6 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 19.5 55.3 22.8 2.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 33.4 55.5 10.7 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 52.9% 0.6 47.1 43.3 9.1 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 10.6% 0.1 89.4 10.1 0.4
Elite Eight 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1 0.0
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 85.8% 11.1% 80.3% 34.3% 5.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
San Diego St. 40.2% 14.0% 32.9% 11.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 40.2% 19.5% 29.3% 9.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 17.6% 9.3% 12.2% 3.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 12.2% 1.0% 11.6% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 5.5% 0.2% 5.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 4.2% 0.2% 4.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%