Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -12.5 349
Expected Predictive Rating -11.9 340
Pace 64.7 289
Improvement -4.4 335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ #352 C- D F D+ B-
Defense D+ #289 D+ C D+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 87 57% 191 +1.7 115
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 273 29% 355 -3.1 321
Three Pointers 42% 161 32% 242 -0.5 199
1st FG Attempt 0.98 230 -1.9 229
Second Chance 22.9% 348 1.07 119 0.24 323
Turnovers 21.5% 359
Freethrows 0.30 197 64% 363 0.19 288
Total Offense -8.7 352

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 238 63% 305 -0.8 201
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 154 42% 303 -0.9 266
Three Pointers 42% 136 35% 251 -1.6 264
1st FG Attempt 1.09 288 -3.3 289
Second Chance 30.1% 161 1.04 205 0.31 189
Turnovers 15.2% 283
Freethrows 0.31 209 71% 104 0.22 191
Total Defense -3.8 289

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.8 72 -0.2 131
Shot Type Accuracy -2.6 270 +3.5 311
Possession Length 19.7 357 15.5 4
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 329 0.19 250
Improvement -1.3 #265 -3.1 #323

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 97% 86% 98%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 7
Quad 20 - 80 - 15
Quad 30 - 90 - 24
Quad 43 - 44 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 78 @Belmont L 63 - 79 3% -4  29% 0 - 1 D+ -6 D- -7 A+ C- F C +0 B A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 152 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 18% -10  0% 0 - 2 F -23 F -23 D- D+ F C+ +1 D- B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 207 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 26% -0  51% 0 - 3 D -10 D+ -4 D+ C+ C- D -6 C- D C+
 Sat, Nov 15 87 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 8% -10  0% 0 - 4 D- -12 F -13 F D C C +0 D+ B+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 316 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 50% -2  11% 1 - 4 D -11 F -11 C- A F C +0 C+ A- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 245 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 32% +8  98% 2 - 4 B- +6 B- +4 D- A B- B- +3 C+ C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 332 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 56% +2  59% 3 - 4 C -1 C+ +3 A D- C D+ -5 C F+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 175 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 21% -5  17% 3 - 5 F -22 F -18 F+ C- F+ D -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 281 South Dakota L 63 - 80 29% -11  2% 3 - 6 F -24 F -16 F F D+ D- -9 F+ D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 115 Pacific L 65 - 80 12% -9  4% 3 - 7 F+ -15 C -0 C+ B+ D F -17 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 166 @Navy L 56 - 61 9% +0  55% 3 - 8 C- -2 F -10 F+ D C B+ +7 B A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 43 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 1% -8  17% 3 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -8 C- -1 C+ B+ D+ D- -9 D F C
 Tue, Dec 30 106 Wyoming L 56 - 68 10% -5  7% 3 - 10 0 - 2 D -11 F -19 C F F B+ +8 A F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 124 @UNLV L 39 - 67 6% -15  0% 3 - 11 0 - 3 F -23 F -33 F F D A- +8 A+ F C
 Tue, Jan 6 35 Utah St. L 62 - 99 2% -20  0% 3 - 12 0 - 4 F -26 D -5 C C+ B- F -22 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 49 New Mexico L 49 - 91 4% -21  5% 3 - 13 0 - 5 F -34 F -21 C+ F F F -13 D B- D+
 Tue, Jan 13 236 @San Jose St. L 62 - 70 15% -4  10% 3 - 14 0 - 6 D -9 D- -6 D+ D- F D+ -4 D C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 66 Nevada L 66 - 81 6% -10  21% 3 - 15 0 - 7 D -10 D- -6 A F D- D+ -4 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 20 103 @Colorado St. L 52 - 81 4% -17  2% 3 - 16 0 - 8 F -21 F -18 F F F D+ -5 D+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 58 @Boise St. L 54 - 96 2% -19  3% 3 - 17 0 - 9 F -30 F+ -9 C- D D- F -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 31 140 Fresno St. L 62 - 79 16% -8  3% 3 - 18 0 - 10 F -19 F -13 D+ F+ F D -5 D- A- F+
 Tue, Feb 3 68 @Grand Canyon L 57 - 81 2% -21  0% 3 - 19 0 - 11 D- -13 F+ -8 D+ B F D+ -5 F D+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 43 San Diego St. L 54 - 88 3% -20  9% 3 - 20 0 - 12 F -25 F -14 B- F F F+ -11 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 103 Colorado St. L 74 - 91 10% -8  14% 3 - 21 0 - 13 F+ -15 C+ +2 A+ F F F -19 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 140 @Fresno St. L 60 - 77 6%
 Tue, Feb 17 49 @New Mexico L 59 - 86 1%
 Sat, Feb 21 124 UNLV L 68 - 80 13%
 Tue, Feb 24 236 San Jose St. L 65 - 70 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 106 @Wyoming L 59 - 79 3%
 Tue, Mar 3 68 Grand Canyon L 58 - 76 5%
 Sat, Mar 7 66 @Nevada L 56 - 80 1%
Totals 4 - 27 1 - 19 -13 F+ -9 C- D F D+ -4 D+ C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ C F+ C- D+ 42% 16% 42% B- C- F+ C+ D F C F D+ D+ D D D+ D 37% 21% 42% C+ D+ C C C D+ C C+ C
0.96 57% 29% 32% -3 +1 0.98 23% 1.1 .24 22% .30 64% .19 1.14 63% 42% 35% +4 0 1.09 30% 1.0 .31 15% .31 71% .21
Nov
3		 Belmont D- A+ B B A+ 33% 23% 44% C- A+ C+ D- C- F D- B- D C F A+ A B+ 48% 10% 42% D+ B B A+ A+ F F F F
0.95 79% 40% 37% +9 -1 1.19 35% 0.9 .30 35% .21 78% .16 1.19 74% 20% 30% +3 +2 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 12% .43 84% .36
Nov
8		 Austin Peay F B- F B- D- 32% 18% 50% C- D- B+ F D+ F A+ F D C+ D- F C+ F 30% 23% 47% B+ D- C A+ B+ A+ F A+ F
0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16 1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31
Nov
11		 LIU Brooklyn D+ C F B+ D+ 53% 19% 28% C+ D+ B C- C+ C- A+ F B D B- B+ F D 41% 37% 22% A C- F A- D C+ F A+ F
1.04 56% 11% 38% -4 +1 0.96 38% 1.0 .38 19% .44 60% .27 1.10 53% 33% 56% +3 -2 1.05 50% 0.8 .39 22% .65 54% .35
Nov
15		 Miami (OH) F F A+ D- F 48% 15% 37% A- F F A+ D C A+ F B C B F F D- 26% 20% 54% A- D+ F+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+
0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25 1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05
Nov
19		 Alabama St. F C- F A- C- 38% 8% 54% B- C- F A+ A F A+ F B C C C A B- 40% 22% 38% D+ C+ A+ C A- D+ D- F F
0.99 57% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.08 25% 2.2 .54 26% .46 65% .30 0.96 55% 36% 26% -6 0 0.90 18% 0.8 .15 17% .34 79% .27
Nov
21		 SIU Edwardsville B- F A+ D F+ 40% 14% 47% B+ D- C A+ A B- A+ C- A+ B- D+ C- A+ C+ 32% 34% 34% B- C+ B D- C C+ F B- F
1.12 35% 50% 30% -10 +1 0.84 33% 1.4 .47 15% .56 73% .41 0.92 60% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 19% .43 67% .29
Nov
23		 IU Indianapolis C+ B+ A+ A+ A 53% 5% 42% B+ A F A- D- C F A- F D+ D+ A- B C+ 37% 17% 46% D- C D+ F F+ C F D+ F
1.24 69% 67% 43% +13 +3 1.35 26% 1.4 .37 19% .27 82% .22 1.08 64% 30% 30% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.3 .40 16% .27 72% .20
Nov
26		 Northern Colorado F A+ F F D 31% 38% 31% F F+ F+ A+ C- F+ D- F F D F+ F F F 35% 16% 49% C F A+ B- A+ D A A+ A
0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16 1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10
Nov
29		 South Dakota F F+ F F F 68% 7% 24% A F F A+ F D+ A+ C A+ D- F F A+ F 45% 20% 35% C F+ F A+ D+ B+ F B F+
0.92 50% 0% 10% -17 +4 0.76 13% 1.5 .20 17% .62 74% .46 1.16 68% 60% 24% +4 0 1.10 49% 0.6 .31 20% .46 72% .33
Dec
3		 Pacific C A C- F+ C+ 33% 21% 46% B C+ C- A+ B+ D A+ F A+ F F F+ B+ D- 34% 38% 28% A+ C- F F F F F F F
1.07 69% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 23% 1.4 .33 18% .64 59% .38 1.31 69% 50% 31% +7 -3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 12% .37 90% .33
Dec
7		 Navy F D C+ F F 27% 21% 52% C+ F+ F A+ D C C+ F D B+ B A D+ B 42% 29% 29% B- B A+ B- A+ F B+ F C-
0.88 54% 40% 24% -8 -1 0.83 17% 1.3 .22 17% .27 57% .15 0.96 50% 29% 36% -5 -1 0.90 18% 1.0 .18 13% .27 93% .25
Dec
17		 San Diego St. C- D C D+ C- 35% 8% 58% A- C+ D- A+ B+ D+ B- B- B- D- C- B- F C- 47% 18% 35% F D F D- F C A- A- A
0.91 50% 33% 30% -6 +1 0.93 21% 1.5 .32 23% .33 75% .25 1.27 65% 33% 41% +6 +1 1.16 39% 1.2 .48 17% .25 69% .17
Dec
30		 Wyoming F A+ F F C- 60% 12% 28% A- C F F F F C+ F D- B+ A A+ C- A+ 32% 12% 56% B- A C F F+ A+ F F F
0.82 73% 20% 8% -4 +3 1.00 14% 0.5 .07 28% .40 55% .22 0.99 46% 0% 35% -8 +1 0.88 36% 1.3 .45 29% .55 89% .49
Jan
3		 UNLV F F F F F 52% 8% 40% A+ F F D F D F F F A- C+ B A+ A+ 50% 22% 28% C- A+ D- F F C C A+ A-
0.60 36% 25% 16% -23 +3 0.60 19% 1.0 .19 20% .25 46% .11 1.03 56% 36% 21% -7 +1 0.90 38% 1.1 .41 17% .37 55% .20
Jan
6		 Utah St. D B- F C C- 41% 20% 39% B C F A+ C+ B- B C+ B F C D D- C- 43% 13% 43% C+ C F F F F B- A B+
0.94 58% 11% 33% -6 0 0.91 21% 1.6 .33 20% .36 74% .26 1.50 61% 43% 39% +5 +1 1.15 44% 2.2 .97 11% .29 65% .19
Jan
10		 New Mexico F C A+ F C 48% 15% 38% A C+ F+ F F F A- F D F D- F D+ D- 31% 9% 60% C+ D F A+ B- D+ B F+ C+
0.71 58% 67% 20% -4 +1 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 31% .36 47% .17 1.32 67% 60% 37% +8 +1 1.19 39% 0.7 .28 13% .27 81% .22
Jan
13		 San Jose St. D- B F C+ D+ 36% 17% 48% C- D+ D+ F+ D- F B B+ A- D+ D+ C+ D D+ 36% 26% 38% D D B+ F C- C- F C- F
1.01 67% 14% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 26% .33 80% .27 1.14 60% 36% 38% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.3 .36 15% .46 75% .34
Jan
17		 Nevada D- A- F A+ A+ 21% 21% 58% D- A F F F D- F A+ F D+ F D+ F F 40% 27% 33% C F B- A+ A A+ D+ F F
0.96 64% 18% 45% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.0 .00 20% .11 100% .11 1.18 67% 42% 53% +14 -1 1.29 32% 0.8 .24 22% .39 90% .36
Jan
20		 Colorado St. F A+ D F F 29% 13% 58% B F F F F F D A- C- D+ F C D+ D+ 40% 17% 44% C- D+ A+ D+ A- F F+ A+ C-
0.80 79% 33% 14% -12 0 0.79 17% 0.7 .11 21% .23 75% .18 1.24 74% 38% 38% +9 +1 1.21 23% 1.1 .26 9% .39 65% .25
Jan
24		 Boise St. F+ F A B C- 34% 23% 43% C+ C- F+ A D D- D- F F F D B- F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F F F F F D- B+ D+
0.87 40% 50% 37% -1 -1 0.98 13% 1.3 .16 19% .22 55% .12 1.55 65% 33% 52% +13 +1 1.30 42% 1.5 .65 6% .43 72% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Fresno St. F D- F B- D+ 40% 15% 45% B- D+ D- F+ F+ F F D+ F+ D C F+ F+ F+ 28% 20% 52% A- D- A B- A- F+ B- A+ B+
0.87 52% 13% 33% -6 +1 0.91 21% 0.9 .18 24% .18 70% .13 1.11 60% 45% 39% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 14% .28 65% .18
Feb
3		 Grand Canyon F+ F A+ F+ D 40% 19% 40% B+ D+ D A+ B F F A+ C- D+ F F+ D+ F 48% 13% 38% D- F C- D+ D+ D D+ A+ A
0.83 37% 56% 26% -10 0 0.83 22% 1.6 .34 26% .24 92% .22 1.18 72% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.21 34% 1.1 .38 15% .36 48% .17
Feb
7		 San Diego St. F B- F C B- 39% 14% 48% B+ B- F D F F D- F+ D- F+ F F B- F 36% 33% 31% B- F A+ F+ A+ F A B A
0.77 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 14% 0.8 .10 31% .25 67% .17 1.25 86% 53% 33% +15 -2 1.28 16% 1.3 .20 9% .22 71% .16
Feb
10		 Colorado St. C+ A F A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% B+ A+ D- F F F A+ F C F F F F F 20% 20% 61% A F A+ A+ A+ F F D F
1.13 71% 29% 58% +19 +1 1.42 21% 0.5 .10 20% .42 45% .19 1.39 75% 50% 56% +26 -1 1.51 14% 0.0 .00 12% .63 81% .51



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 6.4 5.8 0.8 0.1 13.1 11th
12th 52.5 30.1 4.1 0.2 86.9 12th
Total 52.5 36.5 9.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 9.9% 9.9
1-19 36.5% 36.5
0-20 52.5% 52.5
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 51.6%