Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#94
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#154
Pace71.9#124
Improvement+1.4#84

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#167
First Shot+0.9#155
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#240
Layup/Dunks+3.8#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#352
Freethrows+4.4#15
Improvement-2.4#352

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#45
First Shot+6.3#26
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#260
Layups/Dunks+5.5#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#84
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement+3.8#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 8.6% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.0 11.7
.500 or above 82.1% 92.1% 78.0%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 77.3% 67.7%
Conference Champion 7.3% 10.1% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round6.3% 8.2% 5.5%
Second Round1.6% 2.4% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Neutral) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 44 - 9
Quad 36 - 39 - 12
Quad 410 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 236 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90-71 88%     1 - 0 +11.5 +5.1 +5.1
  Fri, Nov 7 178 Youngstown St. L 81-90 82%     1 - 1 -13.4 +4.6 -17.7
  Mon, Nov 10 330 Northern Illinois W 88-59 94%     2 - 1 +16.3 +5.2 +10.3
  Sat, Nov 15 46 @Saint Louis L 64-78 20%     2 - 2 +0.1 -5.3 +6.3
  Fri, Nov 21 302 Northwestern St. W 85-72 92%     3 - 2 +2.2 +6.4 -4.0
  Tue, Nov 25 117 Utah W 68-58 57%     4 - 2 +13.2 -1.5 +15.1
  Wed, Nov 26 27 Iowa L 46-59 20%     4 - 3 +1.1 -13.3 +12.3
  Tue, Dec 2 348 Stetson W 67-45 96%     5 - 3 +7.3 -9.3 +17.8
  Sat, Dec 6 47 Oklahoma St. L 77-83 29%    
  Sat, Dec 13 260 Coastal Carolina W 78-64 89%    
  Sat, Dec 20 106 @Wyoming L 72-74 42%    
  Mon, Dec 22 354 IU Indianapolis W 97-76 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 74 Colorado St. W 72-71 53%    
  Wed, Jan 7 59 @Boise St. L 65-72 26%    
  Sat, Jan 10 185 San Jose St. W 75-65 82%    
  Tue, Jan 13 103 @New Mexico L 75-77 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 51 Utah St. L 72-74 42%    
  Wed, Jan 21 52 San Diego St. L 72-74 43%    
  Sat, Jan 24 179 @Fresno St. W 76-72 63%    
  Tue, Jan 27 105 @Nevada L 70-72 43%    
  Fri, Jan 30 59 Boise St. L 68-69 46%    
  Tue, Feb 3 332 Air Force W 76-58 95%    
  Sat, Feb 7 131 @UNLV W 79-78 50%    
  Wed, Feb 11 103 New Mexico W 78-74 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 185 @San Jose St. W 72-68 64%    
  Tue, Feb 17 52 @San Diego St. L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Feb 21 106 Wyoming W 75-71 64%    
  Wed, Feb 25 131 UNLV W 82-76 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 51 @Utah St. L 69-77 23%    
  Tue, Mar 3 332 @Air Force W 73-61 87%    
  Sat, Mar 7 179 Fresno St. W 79-69 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 3.2 0.8 0.1 10.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 5.8 4.1 0.7 0.1 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.5 4.1 0.9 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.4 1.0 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.8 1.1 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.6 7.8 10.4 13.2 13.2 13.0 11.2 8.5 5.6 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 97.7% 0.6    0.5 0.0
17-3 90.1% 1.5    1.3 0.3 0.0
16-4 64.4% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 34.7% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
14-6 8.7% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 64.3% 38.6% 25.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 41.9%
18-2 0.6% 35.6% 24.7% 10.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 14.5%
17-3 1.7% 32.3% 26.5% 5.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.2 7.9%
16-4 3.3% 18.8% 17.1% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.6 2.0%
15-5 5.6% 17.6% 16.8% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.6 1.0%
14-6 8.5% 12.0% 11.8% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 7.5 0.3%
13-7 11.2% 8.3% 8.2% 0.1% 11.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 10.3 0.1%
12-8 13.0% 5.6% 5.6% 11.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 12.3
11-9 13.2% 3.7% 3.7% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.7
10-10 13.2% 3.4% 3.4% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 12.8
9-11 10.4% 2.3% 2.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2
8-12 7.8% 1.4% 1.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
7-13 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 5.6
6-14 3.3% 3.3
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.5% 6.1% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 93.5 0.4%