Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +8.1 68
Expected Predictive Rating +7.3 80
Pace 69.8 143
Improvement +2.6 76

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #151 C C+ C B- C+
Defense B+ #26 A- B- B- C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 80 60% 120 +3.2 81
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 209 33% 328 -1.5 258
Three Pointers 38% 231 32% 251 -2.3 265
1st FG Attempt 1.01 196 -0.6 195
Second Chance 33.0% 107 1.02 185 0.34 119
Turnovers 16.7% 167
Freethrows 0.33 116 75% 75 0.25 90
Total Offense +0.6 151

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 284 50% 17 +4.9 40
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 37 39% 224 -2.5 340
Three Pointers 38% 254 28% 15 +4.4 26
1st FG Attempt 0.88 16 +6.9 16
Second Chance 26.0% 40 1.07 258 0.28 86
Turnovers 18.5% 89
Freethrows 0.32 218 72% 191 0.23 224
Total Defense +7.5 26

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 126 -1.0 39
Shot Type Accuracy -1.1 210 -5.8 19
Possession Length 17.8 235 16.8 108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 145 0.16 121
Improvement +0.1 #171 +2.5 #54

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 9% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3% 3% 1%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 11.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 98%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 3% 1%
First Round7% 8% 5%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 6
Quad 24 - 36 - 9
Quad 34 - 210 - 11
Quad 410 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 242 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 71 92% +15  98% 1 - 0 B+ +11 B- +4 A- B C B +6 B+ C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 205 Youngstown St. L 81 - 90 90% -3  29% 1 - 1 F+ -15 C +0 D- A+ C+ F -15 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 314 Northern Illinois W 88 - 59 96% +17  95% 2 - 1 A- +17 B +7 B- A+ F+ A- +9 A D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 22 @Saint Louis L 64 - 78 14% -11  0% 2 - 2 B- +6 D -6 D- D- C A +12 A- A- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 280 Northwestern St. W 85 - 72 94% +8  97% 3 - 2 C+ +3 B +6 C+ B- C C- -3 F+ A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 25 110 Utah W 68 - 58 66% +6  95% 4 - 2 B+ +14 D -5 F D A+ A+ +19 A+ D A
 Wed, Nov 26 25 Iowa L 46 - 59 23% -6  21% 4 - 3 C+ +3 F -16 C F F A+ +17 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 333 Stetson W 67 - 45 97% +4  63% 5 - 3 B +8 F -12 F C F A+ +22 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 59 Oklahoma St. L 78 - 84 46% -2  23% 5 - 4 C+ +3 B +6 C- A A+ C- -3 F+ A- B
 Sat, Dec 13 238 Coastal Carolina W 82 - 61 92% +19  99% 6 - 4 B+ +14 B+ +8 D A+ A B+ +7 B B+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 106 @Wyoming W 82 - 70 53% +14  97% 7 - 4 1 - 0 A +19 B +5 A+ D+ F A+ +13 A+ D+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 332 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 78 97% +8  95% 8 - 4 C -1 C +1 C+ B+ C- C- -3 C F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 103 Colorado St. L 60 - 70 73% -10  1% 8 - 5 1 - 1 D -8 F -10 F B- C- C+ +0 B+ B+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 58 @Boise St. W 75 - 58 34% +7  83% 9 - 5 2 - 1 A+ +29 B +7 A- C- D+ A+ +23 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 236 San Jose St. W 76 - 58 92% +14  97% 10 - 5 3 - 1 B +11 D -4 C+ C D A+ +15 B A A-
 Tue, Jan 13 49 @New Mexico L 64 - 87 29% -9  0% 10 - 6 3 - 2 D -9 D- -7 F+ F+ A+ C -1 F A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 35 Utah St. W 84 - 74 38% +5  95% 11 - 6 4 - 2 A +21 A+ +18 A+ B A B- +4 A+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 43 San Diego St. W 70 - 69 46% +2  64% 12 - 6 5 - 2 B +10 C+ +2 B- D D A- +9 A+ B D
 Sat, Jan 24 140 @Fresno St. W 68 - 57 65% +5  94% 13 - 6 6 - 2 A- +15 C +1 F A+ B+ A+ +15 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 66 @Nevada L 60 - 66 OT 38% +2  55% 13 - 7 6 - 3 B- +5 F -13 F+ D+ F+ A+ +18 A+ B+ C
 Fri, Jan 30 58 Boise St. W 86 - 69 57% +6  76% 14 - 7 7 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +17 A+ C+ B+ B+ +7 A+ C- B-
 Tue, Feb 3 349 Air Force W 81 - 57 98% +21  99% 15 - 7 8 - 3 B +8 C+ +2 B+ B C+ B+ +7 A F+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 124 @UNLV L 78 - 80 61% -7  11% 15 - 8 8 - 4 C+ +3 C +1 D D- B+ C+ +2 A F+ C
 Wed, Feb 11 49 New Mexico L 64 - 70 51% -8  11% 15 - 9 8 - 5 C+ +2 D -6 F+ B+ B B+ +8 C- A+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 236 @San Jose St. W 74 - 65 81%
 Tue, Feb 17 43 @San Diego St. L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 106 Wyoming W 75 - 68 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 124 UNLV W 80 - 71 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 35 @Utah St. L 68 - 77 20%
 Tue, Mar 3 349 @Air Force W 76 - 58 95%
 Sat, Mar 7 140 Fresno St. W 75 - 65 82%
Totals 20 - 11 13 - 7 +8 C +1 C C+ C B+ +8 A- B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D D+ C- 42% 19% 38% C+ C B- C C+ C B- B B- B+ A- C- A- A- 35% 26% 38% B+ A- B+ C- B- B- C- C C-
1.09 60% 33% 32% -1 0 1.01 33% 1.0 .34 17% .33 75% .25 0.98 50% 39% 28% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.1 .28 19% .32 72% .24
Nov
3		 Purdue Fort Wayne B- D A+ A+ B+ 48% 6% 46% A- A- F A+ B C A- C A- B D+ D- A+ B+ 30% 23% 47% A- B+ B+ F C- B A- F B-
1.20 54% 67% 48% +9 +3 1.26 25% 1.7 .43 20% .33 75% .25 0.95 61% 43% 25% -4 -1 0.92 16% 1.5 .24 17% .16 90% .14
Nov
7		 Youngstown St. C A+ F F D- 53% 28% 19% C D- A+ B+ A+ C+ C+ F D+ F B- D+ F+ D+ 42% 10% 48% D D+ B+ F F F F F F
1.12 79% 20% 0% -4 0 0.94 44% 1.1 .50 18% .37 68% .25 1.24 55% 40% 39% +3 +2 1.10 26% 1.6 .42 12% .47 80% .38
Nov
10		 Northern Illinois B C+ F A+ B- 43% 16% 41% C B- A+ A+ A+ F+ C- A+ A A- A+ A+ F A- 36% 25% 39% A A A+ F D- A+ F+ F F
1.22 62% 13% 45% +4 +1 1.12 54% 1.4 .73 21% .33 95% .32 0.82 31% 18% 41% -10 -1 0.80 23% 1.6 .35 29% .41 81% .33
Nov
15		 Saint Louis D D+ F F F+ 36% 20% 44% B- D- B F D- C B- A+ A A B- A+ D A- 46% 6% 48% C A- B A- A- A+ C+ F D+
0.86 50% 9% 25% -15 0 0.73 30% 0.5 .14 16% .35 86% .30 1.04 58% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 24% .30 82% .25
Nov
21		 Northwestern St. B A C+ C- C+ 40% 17% 43% C C+ A+ F B- C A+ B+ A+ C- F F B F 22% 38% 40% A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ D- F A- D-
1.23 71% 43% 33% +6 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .42 17% .68 77% .53 1.04 73% 53% 30% +6 -3 1.08 9% 1.0 .09 15% .41 67% .27
Nov
25		 Utah D A+ F F F 44% 36% 20% F+ F D- C- D A+ A+ C A+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ 50% 19% 31% C- A+ B+ F D A D+ A+ B-
1.01 73% 17% 0% -11 -2 0.76 24% 1.0 .24 9% .52 69% .36 0.86 48% 25% 31% -9 +1 0.86 26% 1.4 .35 21% .34 61% .21
Nov
26		 Iowa F D+ F+ B C 46% 18% 36% B C F F F F F B+ F+ A+ A+ F A A+ 43% 13% 45% D+ A+ C B- C+ A F A F+
0.76 56% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 15% 0.0 .00 31% .22 78% .17 0.98 41% 80% 28% -6 +1 0.93 33% 1.0 .33 20% .45 68% .31
Dec
2		 Stetson F A+ B F F 28% 24% 48% D- F C C C F A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ 43% 17% 40% F+ A+ C+ A B+ A+ A A+ A+
1.01 77% 45% 18% -4 -1 0.91 32% 1.2 .38 21% .44 70% .31 0.68 50% 0% 26% -14 +1 0.74 24% 0.8 .18 26% .20 40% .08
Dec
6		 Oklahoma St. B C C- F D+ 40% 14% 46% B- C- B+ B+ A A+ D- F F+ C- F+ F C+ F 51% 24% 24% A- F+ A C+ A- B F B- F
1.11 57% 38% 27% -5 +1 0.93 35% 1.2 .43 13% .21 62% .13 1.20 68% 58% 33% +10 0 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 17% .48 71% .34
Dec
13		 Coastal Carolina B+ D- F C+ D- 33% 26% 40% B- D A+ C- A+ A B- A+ A- B+ C+ B+ B B 33% 33% 34% B- B B- A+ B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.21 47% 27% 35% -6 -1 0.88 47% 1.0 .47 7% .32 85% .27 0.90 53% 32% 30% -6 -2 0.86 23% 0.7 .16 6% .13 50% .06
Dec
20		 Wyoming B A+ A A A+ 52% 5% 43% A A+ F+ B D+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A+ A+ 38% 15% 47% B- A+ A F D+ C F C F
1.12 73% 50% 39% +11 +3 1.31 18% 1.0 .18 22% .61 71% .44 0.95 55% 50% 12% -15 +1 0.74 28% 1.4 .38 16% .49 77% .37
Dec
22		 IU Indianapolis C D+ A+ A+ C+ 54% 17% 29% C C+ B+ C B+ C- A+ A+ A+ C- F F B+ D 13% 35% 52% A+ C D+ F F B+ F+ A+ D+
1.21 58% 50% 43% +6 +2 1.17 43% 1.3 .54 20% .50 87% .43 1.04 86% 47% 29% +3 -4 1.00 30% 1.7 .52 20% .25 60% .15
Jan
3		 Colorado St. F F+ C+ F F 33% 20% 47% C+ F C+ B+ B- C- D+ F+ D C+ C- A+ C+ A 36% 11% 52% D+ B+ F A+ B+ B F A F
0.96 50% 40% 22% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .36 16% .25 62% .15 1.12 63% 20% 35% 0 +1 1.05 41% 0.7 .28 21% .50 68% .34
Jan
7		 Boise St. B B- A+ D+ B 52% 13% 35% A+ A- A F C- D+ F+ A- D A+ B B+ A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A F D+ F
1.11 61% 71% 32% +5 +2 1.15 32% 0.6 .19 18% .22 75% .16 0.86 54% 31% 24% -10 -2 0.79 20% 0.7 .14 21% .46 80% .37
Jan
10		 San Jose St. D A+ F D- C+ 35% 8% 56% B- C+ C- C+ C D B A A- A+ C+ A- C+ B 29% 31% 40% B- B A+ C+ A A- F A+ D
1.09 82% 25% 30% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.2 .41 20% .32 83% .27 0.83 54% 29% 33% -4 -2 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 20% .39 64% .25
Jan
13		 New Mexico D- C F F D- 28% 31% 41% D F+ D- F F+ A+ D A+ C C B- F F F 45% 24% 31% A- F A C+ A- C F C F
0.87 56% 28% 25% -9 -2 0.79 20% 0.8 .15 12% .23 87% .20 1.19 55% 58% 53% +12 0 1.27 22% 1.0 .22 15% .45 75% .34
Jan
17		 Utah St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B+ A+ A- C B A A+ D+ A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% A+ A+ F A- D+ F F+ D+ F+
1.28 63% 50% 41% +9 +1 1.20 38% 1.0 .38 17% .60 70% .42 1.12 33% 62% 24% -9 -1 0.83 47% 1.0 .49 11% .39 74% .29
Jan
21		 San Diego St. C+ F F A+ C+ 40% 18% 42% B B- C- F+ D D A+ A- A+ A- A- F+ A+ A+ 35% 37% 28% B+ A+ B B B D C F D+
0.99 39% 13% 47% -4 0 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 24% .52 79% .41 0.98 53% 45% 13% -8 -2 0.81 29% 1.0 .29 14% .31 84% .26
Jan
24		 Fresno St. C C+ D+ F F 36% 20% 44% C F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 29% 27% 44% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ C F C- F
1.03 63% 33% 10% -15 0 0.71 41% 1.2 .51 17% .45 76% .34 0.86 43% 38% 19% -14 -2 0.71 23% 0.4 .10 18% .48 77% .37
Jan
27		 Nevada F F A+ F F+ 34% 24% 42% D+ F+ D B- D+ F+ D- D- F+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 38% 34% 29% B+ A+ A C B+ C D A+ C+
0.83 41% 58% 19% -10 -1 0.80 22% 1.3 .27 21% .26 67% .17 0.91 38% 16% 38% -13 -2 0.71 27% 1.1 .29 12% .41 65% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Boise St. A+ A F A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% B+ A+ F A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ A- A+ 49% 7% 44% F+ A+ B+ F C- B- F+ C+ F+
1.30 68% 30% 64% +17 +1 1.37 10% 2.5 .25 14% .40 83% .33 1.04 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.89 29% 1.3 .38 17% .45 76% .34
Feb
3		 Air Force C+ A B- C+ B 48% 13% 38% A- B+ B C+ B C+ B F D- B+ A+ F A A 40% 19% 40% B- A C+ F F+ A A- F D+
1.18 72% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.21 34% 1.1 .38 15% .36 48% .17 0.83 37% 56% 26% -10 0 0.83 22% 1.6 .34 26% .24 92% .22
Feb
7		 UNLV C F+ F+ C+ D 41% 22% 37% C D C F D- B+ A+ B- A+ C+ A- C C+ B+ 27% 37% 35% A+ A D+ F F+ C B+ F D-
1.09 47% 30% 35% -5 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .25 15% .58 74% .43 1.11 50% 42% 33% -1 -3 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 17% .32 95% .30
Feb
11		 New Mexico D D+ B+ F F 33% 22% 45% C+ F+ B- A- B+ B B B B+ B+ A+ D+ F D- 35% 30% 35% A+ C- A+ A A+ A D+ B- C-
0.93 53% 45% 17% -11 0 0.78 31% 1.2 .36 18% .32 78% .25 1.02 44% 43% 56% +8 -2 1.15 20% 0.8 .17 20% .33 72% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.0 1st
2nd 0.2 3.4 1.4 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 7.5 9.8 0.3 17.9 3rd
4th 0.6 8.6 21.8 2.7 33.7 4th
5th 0.4 5.1 16.6 7.5 0.1 29.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 5.8 3.5 0.2 11.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.2 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.7 11.9 29.1 37.3 16.1 2.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 35.2% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1
14-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 2.6% 34.9% 14.6% 20.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.7 23.8%
14-6 16.1% 15.9% 8.8% 7.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 0.0 13.5 7.8%
13-7 37.3% 8.2% 6.4% 1.8% 10.9 0.0 0.4 2.5 0.2 34.2 1.9%
12-8 29.1% 6.1% 5.5% 0.6% 11.1 0.1 1.5 0.2 27.3 0.6%
11-9 11.9% 3.2% 3.0% 0.2% 11.1 0.3 0.1 11.5 0.2%
10-10 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
9-11 0.3% 0.3
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.7% 6.2% 2.5% 10.8 91.3 2.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 9.2 5.3 10.5 52.6 23.7 7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 42.3% 10.4 1.9 3.8 11.5 25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 20.5% 10.7 1.1 3.4 15.9