Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.5 #79
Expected Predictive Rating +8.2 #76
Pace 70.7 #133
Improvement +3.6 #38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #137 C C C B- B-
Defense #31 A- B B- C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.21 #118 +3.4 #75
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #206 0.63 #335 -1.8 #273
Three Pointers 39% #236 0.97 #242 -2.0 #256
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #194 -0.5 #193
Freethrows 18.5 #142 76% #54 14.2 #105
Second Chance 34.0% #89 0.98 #269 0.33 #147
Turnovers 16.6% #183
Total Offense +0.9 #137

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 1.04 #43 +3.7 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #45 0.79 #237 -2.5 #338
Three Pointers 38% #264 0.84 #12 +4.8 #25
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #29 +6.0 #29
Freethrows 18.9 #253 70% #84 13.3 #221
Second Chance 25.1% #22 1.09 #245 0.27 #74
Turnovers 18.0% #83
Total Defense +6.6 #31

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #120 -1.8% #53
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #208 -10.2% #33
Possession Length 17.6 #206 16.9 #104
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #169 0.15 #109
Improvement +1.0 #126 +2.6 #42

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 11.9% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 3.3% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 11.0
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 99.2% 94.5%
Conference Champion 12.3% 16.4% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 2.3% 1.0%
First Round9.1% 10.7% 6.3%
Second Round2.1% 2.6% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 34 - 211 - 11
Quad 410 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 71 89% +15  1 - 0 +13 +7 A+ B C +4 A C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 213 Youngstown St. L 81 - 90 89% -3  1 - 1 -15 +2 F A+ C -17 D- F F
 Mon, Nov 10 318 Northern Illinois W 88 - 59 96% +17  2 - 1 +16 +8 C+ A+ F +7 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 28 @Saint Louis L 64 - 78 17% -11  2 - 2 +4 -4 F F C +9 A- A- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 276 Northwestern St. W 85 - 72 93% +8  3 - 2 +4 +6 C C+ C -3 D A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 104 Utah W 68 - 58 61% +6  4 - 2 +15 -2 F D A+ +17 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 23 Iowa L 46 - 59 20% -6  4 - 3 +3 -11 C+ F F +12 A+ B- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 332 Stetson W 67 - 45 96% +4  5 - 3 +8 -9 F C F +19 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 61 Oklahoma St. L 78 - 84 44% -2  5 - 4 +3 +8 D A+ A+ -5 F A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 252 Coastal Carolina W 82 - 61 92% +19  6 - 4 +13 +10 D A+ A+ +4 B A- F
 Sat, Dec 20 108 @Wyoming W 82 - 70 51% +14  7 - 4 1 - 0 +19 +8 A+ D F +11 A+ C C
 Mon, Dec 22 337 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 78 97% +8  8 - 4 -1 +3 C B D -5 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 96 Colorado St. L 60 - 70 69% -10  8 - 5 1 - 1 -8 -9 F C+ C- -0 A+ A A-
 Wed, Jan 7 66 @Boise St. W 75 - 58 35% +7  9 - 5 2 - 1 +28 +11 A+ C- D+ +18 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 238 San Jose St. W 76 - 58 91% +14  10 - 5 3 - 1 +11 -2 C+ C- D +13 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 51 @New Mexico L 64 - 87 27% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -9 -3 F F A+ -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 39 Utah St. W 84 - 74 41% +5  11 - 6 4 - 2 +20 +19 A+ B A+ +1 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 46 San Diego St. W 70 - 69 47% +2  12 - 6 5 - 2 +9 +2 B- F F +7 A+ A- D
 Sat, Jan 24 143 @Fresno St. W 73 - 69 63%
 Tue, Jan 27 80 @Nevada L 69 - 72 39%
 Fri, Jan 30 66 Boise St. W 71 - 69 59%
 Tue, Feb 3 340 Air Force W 77 - 55 98%
 Sat, Feb 7 114 @UNLV W 76 - 75 54%
 Wed, Feb 11 51 New Mexico L 73 - 74 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 238 @San Jose St. W 75 - 66 79%
 Tue, Feb 17 46 @San Diego St. L 68 - 75 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 108 Wyoming W 76 - 70 73%
 Wed, Feb 25 114 UNLV W 79 - 72 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 39 @Utah St. L 70 - 78 22%
 Tue, Mar 3 340 @Air Force W 74 - 58 93%
 Sat, Mar 7 143 Fresno St. W 76 - 66 80%
Totals 20 - 11 13 - 7 +7 +1 C C C +7 A- B B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 4.4 4.8 1.7 0.3 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 7.3 7.4 1.7 0.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 8.6 9.2 1.7 0.1 20.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.8 9.6 2.0 0.0 19.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.5 7.9 1.9 0.1 14.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.5 1.6 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.2 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.3 11.2 17.6 21.7 19.6 13.5 6.5 1.9 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-3 93.5% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 73.5% 4.8    2.4 2.0 0.3
15-5 32.4% 4.4    1.0 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.5% 1.1    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 5.1 4.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.3% 75.5% 13.2% 62.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 71.7%
17-3 1.9% 42.2% 17.8% 24.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.1 29.6%
16-4 6.5% 25.8% 15.3% 10.6% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.0 4.8 12.5%
15-5 13.5% 17.3% 12.4% 4.8% 10.8 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.1 11.2 5.5%
14-6 19.6% 11.6% 10.3% 1.4% 11.0 0.1 2.0 0.2 17.3 1.5%
13-7 21.7% 7.8% 7.4% 0.4% 11.1 0.0 1.4 0.3 20.0 0.5%
12-8 17.6% 4.1% 4.0% 0.0% 11.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 16.8 0.0%
11-9 11.2% 2.4% 2.4% 11.3 0.2 0.1 11.0
10-10 5.3% 1.4% 1.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 5.2
9-11 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 12.0 0.0 2.0
8-12 0.4% 0.4
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.1% 7.7% 2.3% 10.8 90.0 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 77.3% 9.1 9.1 9.1 27.3 27.3 4.5