Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#162
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#164
Pace69.7#180
Improvement+0.1#184

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#224
First Shot-0.7#196
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#262
Layup/Dunks-3.5#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#24
Freethrows-2.0#300
Improvement-3.1#359

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#125
First Shot+1.1#128
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#169
Layups/Dunks-5.6#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#5
Freethrows-1.7#282
Improvement+3.2#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 20.4% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 88.0% 94.7% 82.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 96.8% 87.6%
Conference Champion 27.5% 40.0% 18.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round16.8% 20.3% 14.1%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 95 @Pittsburgh L 59-74 20%     0 - 1 -6.7 -6.0 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 7 99 @Grand Canyon W 90-81 20%     1 - 1 +17.2 +20.4 -3.5
  Sat, Nov 15 108 @St. Bonaventure L 80-84 23%     1 - 2 +3.1 +11.5 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 19 163 @Toledo L 75-92 39%     1 - 3 -14.6 -4.8 -8.8
  Sun, Nov 23 281 UNC Greensboro L 62-68 72%     1 - 4 -12.5 -17.2 +4.8
  Mon, Nov 24 232 Georgia Southern W 67-61 63%     2 - 4 +1.9 -6.4 +8.5
  Fri, Nov 28 352 Chicago St. W 87-64 91%     3 - 4 +7.2 +5.1 +2.0
  Wed, Dec 3 159 Wright St. W 69-68 61%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -2.4 -3.4 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 6 356 @IU Indianapolis W 78-55 83%     5 - 4 2 - 0 +12.2 +2.0 +11.3
  Wed, Dec 17 186 @Robert Morris L 69-71 43%    
  Sat, Dec 20 274 South Carolina Upstate W 76-68 78%    
  Mon, Dec 29 293 Detroit Mercy W 77-67 82%    
  Thu, Jan 1 146 Oakland W 81-79 56%    
  Sun, Jan 4 192 @Northern Kentucky L 72-74 44%    
  Wed, Jan 7 238 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-72 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 159 @Wright St. L 69-72 39%    
  Sat, Jan 17 323 @Cleveland St. W 79-73 70%    
  Thu, Jan 22 273 Green Bay W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 219 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-72 71%    
  Fri, Jan 30 356 IU Indianapolis W 92-76 93%    
  Wed, Feb 4 238 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-75 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 186 Robert Morris W 72-68 65%    
  Thu, Feb 12 146 @Oakland L 78-82 34%    
  Sun, Feb 15 293 @Detroit Mercy W 74-70 63%    
  Wed, Feb 18 323 Cleveland St. W 82-70 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 192 Northern Kentucky W 75-71 65%    
  Wed, Feb 25 219 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-75 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 273 @Green Bay W 72-70 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.1 6.4 7.5 5.8 2.9 1.1 0.2 27.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.1 7.6 5.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.3 7.1 10.1 12.8 14.5 14.7 12.7 9.5 6.1 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
18-2 99.3% 2.9    2.8 0.1
17-3 93.9% 5.8    5.0 0.8 0.0
16-4 78.5% 7.5    5.2 2.0 0.2
15-5 50.1% 6.4    3.0 2.6 0.7 0.0
14-6 20.9% 3.1    0.8 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 18.1 7.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 55.9% 55.9% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.1% 42.5% 42.5% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
18-2 2.9% 38.5% 38.5% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.8
17-3 6.1% 32.1% 32.1% 13.5 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.2
16-4 9.5% 29.5% 29.5% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.7
15-5 12.7% 23.8% 23.8% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 9.7
14-6 14.7% 19.3% 19.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 11.8
13-7 14.5% 13.8% 13.8% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 12.5
12-8 12.8% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 11.5
11-9 10.1% 8.2% 8.2% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 9.3
10-10 7.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.7
9-11 4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.2
8-12 2.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.3
7-13 1.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 6.2 5.3 1.6 83.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.4 2.8 58.3 38.9