UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #294
Expected Predictive Rating -7.5 #287
Pace 68.3 #201
Improvement -0.6 #220

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #204 D+ D+ B- B D
Defense #342 F D+ F B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.11 #231 -2.9 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #71 0.70 #267 +1.5 #101
Three Pointers 39% #222 0.99 #226 -1.6 #240
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #266 -3.1 #264
Freethrows 21.4 #17 69% #296 14.8 #73
Second Chance 27.6% #269 1.03 #193 0.28 #249
Turnovers 15.3% #108
Total Offense -1.3 #204

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.28 #324 -0.2 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.79 #223 -0.1 #191
Three Pointers 45% #73 1.15 #334 -5.0 #344
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #331 -5.3 #331
Freethrows 15.5 #68 69% #47 10.7 #52
Second Chance 30.6% #183 1.16 #307 0.35 #263
Turnovers 13.4% #337
Total Defense -6.3 #342

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #306 -0.4% #129
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #244 10.7% #342
Possession Length 17.6 #198 16.7 #77
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #273 0.16 #156
Improvement +1.9 #80 -2.5 #318

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 1.7% 3.7% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 44.6% 64.4% 33.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.5% 2.3%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 1.4%
First Round1.2% 1.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 35.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 410 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 85 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 6% -7  0 - 1 -19 -12 F F F -3 D- D A
 Sat, Nov 8 184 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 39% -1  0 - 2 -7 +5 A+ F C -12 C- A- F
 Wed, Nov 12 26 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 2% -15  0 - 3 -28 -4 F D+ C -21 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 171 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 36% -3  0 - 4 -10 -12 F F A +3 B- C B-
 Thu, Nov 20 177 @Queens L 94 - 101 19% -8  0 - 5 -5 +20 B+ A- A+ -26 F D- F
 Sun, Nov 23 213 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 34% -9  1 - 5 +3 -9 D F F +11 A- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 295 Delaware L 60 - 73 50% -1  1 - 6 -21 -10 F F C -12 F A+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 89 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 10% +1  1 - 7 -5 -3 F A+ F -1 C+ A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 205 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 32% -0  1 - 8 -8 +9 A+ C D -17 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 267 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 32% +2  2 - 8 +1 +11 F A+ B -10 D+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 304 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 63% -6  2 - 9 -17 -9 F C B+ -8 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 247 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 51% +1  3 - 9 1 - 0 -3 +3 C C F -6 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 249 Samford W 89 - 82 51% +8  4 - 9 2 - 0 -1 +16 C+ A- A+ -17 F F F
 Wed, Jan 7 215 @Wofford L 85 - 97 24% -11  4 - 10 2 - 1 -12 +11 B- B A- -23 D F F
 Sat, Jan 10 135 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 13% -10  4 - 11 2 - 2 -21 -12 F B F -9 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 351 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 78% -4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -13 -11 F F C -1 D A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 149 Mercer L 92 - 102 30% -12  5 - 12 3 - 3 -12 +11 A- F A+ -23 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 21 349 @VMI W 85 - 78 57% +6  6 - 12 4 - 3 -2 +12 D+ D A+ -14 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 165 Furman L 72 - 76 35%
 Thu, Jan 29 149 @Mercer L 76 - 87 14%
 Sat, Jan 31 351 @The Citadel W 75 - 73 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 289 Western Carolina W 81 - 78 60%
 Sun, Feb 8 165 @Furman L 69 - 79 18%
 Wed, Feb 11 349 VMI W 81 - 73 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 215 Wofford L 78 - 79 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 289 @Western Carolina L 78 - 81 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 135 East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 247 @Chattanooga L 73 - 79 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 249 @Samford L 75 - 81 30%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -8 -1 D+ D+ B- -6 F D+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 3.4 1.3 0.1 6.9 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 6.6 2.6 0.2 12.9 4th
5th 0.4 4.8 11.0 4.4 0.2 20.8 5th
6th 0.2 4.3 11.4 5.7 0.4 22.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 9.5 5.2 0.5 17.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 6.2 4.2 0.5 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 1.6 0.2 4.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.5 3.8 10.4 18.6 22.1 20.6 13.5 6.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 67.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.8% 11.9% 11.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.7
12-6 2.7% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.6
11-7 6.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.7
10-8 13.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.1
9-9 20.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.4 20.1
8-10 22.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 21.8
7-11 18.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 18.4
6-12 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.4
5-13 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.9 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%