UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -8.2 300
Results Rating -7.0 274
Consistency 0.13 62
Pace 69.2 159
Improvement +1.0 147

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 189 C- D+ C+ B D+
Defense D- 350 D- D+ D- B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 263 D+ 55% 262 -2.7 285
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 125 C- 37% 225 +1.0 121
Three Pointers 40% 208 C 34% 179 -0.5 197
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 277 C- -1.5 229
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 241
Second Chance D+ 26.5% 290 C- 1.01 213 D+ 0.27 274
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.1% 145
Other Turnovers B- 6.6% 95
Turnovers C+ 15.7% 112
Freethrows B+ 0.36 24 D+ 69% 277 B 0.25 68
Total Offense C- -1.0 189

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 38% 321 D+ 12.5% 272
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 177 D+ 6.4% 270
Three Pointers D 78% 316 C+ 0.7% 143
Total D 48% 319 D+ 6.3% 268


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 282 D+ 62% 295 -0.6 157
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 197 D+ 40% 271 +0.2 214
Three Pointers 45% 62 F 40% 360 +6.0 355
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 131 F+ +5.6 354
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 341
Second Chance C 30.8% 210 D+ 1.11 289 D+ 0.34 263
Turnovers from Steals D 7.9% 298
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 334
Turnovers D- 13.9% 335
Freethrows B 0.26 58 C 72% 166 B 0.19 59
Total Defense D- -7.2 350

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 43% 70 D 6.8% 331
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 160 D+ 3.0% 289
Three Pointers B 79% 44 D 0.1% 343
Total C+ 53% 124 D- 3.0% 349

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 177 16.7 76
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 291 0.17 170
Consistency 0.14 281 0.13 232
Improvement +2.0 91 -0.9 241

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 310 302 289
Results Rating Rank 303 284 256
Conference Record 9 - 9 9 - 9 9 - 9
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four2% 2% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 411 - 912 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 98 @Kansas St. L 64 - 93 7% -7  40% 0 - 1 F -20 F -14 D- F F+ C- -2 D- F+ B+
 Sat, Nov 8 242 Elon L 90 - 92 OT 47% -1  34% 0 - 2 D -10 C+ +3 A F B- F -12 C B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 34 @North Carolina St. L 64 - 110 2% -15  6% 0 - 3 F -29 F+ -9 F D+ D+ F -17 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 177 Austin Peay L 63 - 69 34% -3  17% 0 - 4 D -10 F -17 F+ F B- A- +7 A- C+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 202 @Queens L 94 - 101 20% -8  0% 0 - 5 D+ -6 A+ +16 B- B A+ F -23 F F+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 217 Youngstown St. W 68 - 62 31% -9  6% 1 - 5 C+ +3 F -10 D F+ F A+ +13 A A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 274 Delaware L 60 - 73 42% -1  37% 1 - 6 F -19 F -14 F F C D- -7 F A C-
 Wed, Nov 26 90 Miami (OH) L 71 - 82 10% +1  54% 1 - 7 C- -5 D -5 D- A F C -0 C A D+
 Tue, Dec 2 247 UNC Asheville L 77 - 82 37% -0  53% 1 - 8 D -10 B +6 A C C- F -16 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 233 @East Carolina W 82 - 78 24% +2  72% 2 - 8 C+ +3 B+ +8 D A+ B- D -5 C- F A
 Tue, Dec 16 281 N.C. A&T L 65 - 71 55% -6  3% 2 - 9 F+ -16 F -12 F C- A- D+ -4 C+ C+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 286 Chattanooga W 77 - 72 57% +1  50% 3 - 9 1 - 0 D+ -5 C- -1 C+ C F D+ -4 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 191 Samford W 89 - 82 38% +8  96% 4 - 9 2 - 0 C+ +2 A+ +16 C+ A- A+ F -14 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 240 @Wofford L 85 - 97 26% -11  6% 4 - 10 2 - 1 D- -13 B +7 C+ B+ B F -21 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 141 @East Tennessee St. L 60 - 86 13% -10  6% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F -22 F -15 F B- F D -6 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 343 The Citadel W 69 - 66 OT 76% -4  24% 5 - 11 3 - 2 D- -13 F -13 F F B C+ +0 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 178 Mercer L 92 - 102 34% -12  1% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D- -14 B+ +8 B+ F+ A+ F -21 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 21 358 @VMI W 85 - 78 69% +6  82% 6 - 12 4 - 3 D+ -6 B +6 D D+ A+ F -12 D+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 185 Furman L 66 - 89 37% -5  4% 6 - 13 4 - 4 F -28 D+ -4 C- D C F -26 F C F
 Thu, Jan 29 178 @Mercer L 77 - 95 17% -14  13% 6 - 14 4 - 5 F+ -16 D+ -3 F B- A F -13 D F F+
 Sat, Jan 31 343 @The Citadel L 66 - 71 OT 56% -2  22% 6 - 15 4 - 6 F+ -15 F -12 F C- D- C- -3 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 231 Western Carolina W 81 - 78 45% +0  34% 7 - 15 5 - 6 C- -4 C+ +4 D+ B+ D- D- -7 D- B D+
 Sun, Feb 8 185 @Furman W 67 - 64 19% +4  79% 8 - 15 6 - 6 C+ +4 C +1 B F C B +4 B B- D+
 Wed, Feb 11 358 VMI W 92 - 71 85% +15  90% 9 - 15 7 - 6 C+ +2 B +6 B F+ B+ D+ -4 F B- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 240 Wofford W 99 - 89 47% +12  99% 10 - 15 8 - 6 C+ +3 A+ +17 A+ F A+ F -14 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 231 @Western Carolina L 77 - 91 24% -6  11% 10 - 16 8 - 7 F+ -15 C- -2 B F D+ F -13 F F D
 Sat, Feb 21 141 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 87 27% -4  23% 10 - 17 8 - 8 D- -14 C+ +2 A- B C- F -16 F D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 26 286 @Chattanooga W 85 - 80 35% +7  98% 11 - 17 9 - 8 C +1 C- -1 C- F C C+ +1 C- C D
 Sat, Feb 28 191 @Samford L 78 - 87 19% -8  1% 11 - 18 9 - 9 D+ -8 C- -1 D- C B D- -7 F F A
 Fri, Mar 6 358 VMI W 83 - 75 78%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 9 -8 C- -1 A+ C- D+ D- -7 C D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C- C C- 36% 42% 40% D+ C- D+ C- D+ C+ B+ D+ B D- D+ D+ F F+ 35% 20% 45% C+ D- C D+ D+ D- B C B
1.07 55% 37% 34% -2 -1 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 16% .36 69% .25 1.19 62% 40% 40% +6 0 1.13 31% 1.1 .34 14% .26 72% .26
Nov
4		 Kansas St. F D F F+ F 47% 20% 33% B- D- F+ F+ F F+ B- F C- C- B- F F F+ 41% 19% 40% C+ D- D+ F F+ B+ D A+ B-
0.80 50% 18% 28% -11 +1 0.82 24% 1.0 .24 23% .32 60% .19 1.16 58% 45% 48% +10 0 1.22 34% 1.3 .44 20% .31 55% .17
Nov
8		 Elon C+ D- C+ A+ A 30% 19% 51% C- A D+ F F B- A+ F B+ F B- A+ F C- 38% 16% 47% B+ C F A+ B+ F F C+ F
1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25 1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
12		 North Carolina St. F+ F C+ F F 26% 21% 54% D- F F+ B+ D+ D+ A+ D- A+ F D+ B F D- 38% 15% 48% C+ D B+ F F F C D+ C-
0.86 40% 38% 24% -13 -1 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 22% .70 63% .45 1.48 65% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.23 26% 2.0 .53 5% .33 78% .26
Nov
15		 Austin Peay F C- C- F+ F+ 35% 22% 43% D F+ F F F B- A F B- A- B- A+ A- A- 39% 22% 39% B- A- C+ C- C+ C B A+ A
0.86 59% 36% 29% -4 -1 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25 0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16
Nov
20		 Queens A+ B A D+ C+ 58% 12% 30% A B- D- A+ B A+ A+ F+ A+ F D+ C- F F 36% 9% 55% D F F B F+ F D- F F
1.38 66% 50% 33% +5 +3 1.18 27% 1.6 .42 6% .56 67% .37 1.49 65% 40% 48% +15 +1 1.34 40% 1.0 .40 9% .37 87% .32
Nov
23		 Youngstown St. F A+ B F C 22% 45% 33% F D D- F F+ F A- F+ B- A+ B C+ B+ B+ 23% 30% 47% A+ A B+ A+ A+ C- A C- A-
0.94 82% 41% 25% +2 -4 0.98 24% 0.8 .19 24% .40 68% .27 0.86 54% 35% 30% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.6 .14 18% .19 73% .13
Nov
25		 Delaware F F+ F C+ F+ 4% 43% 53% F F F F F C A+ C+ A+ D- F D+ F F 14% 38% 48% A+ F C+ A+ A C- A+ A+ A+
0.94 50% 25% 36% -4 -5 0.83 21% 0.6 .13 14% .40 82% .33 1.14 86% 42% 54% +20 -4 1.34 19% 0.4 .07 17% .15 50% .08
Nov
26		 Miami (OH) D D C+ F+ F+ 33% 22% 46% C- D- C+ A+ A F A+ C+ A+ C F C B C+ 33% 9% 58% D C B- A+ A D+ C+ D C
0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35 1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24
Dec
2		 UNC Asheville B A+ C A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% D- A D- A C C- A- B- A- F B- F F F 35% 35% 31% D+ F B- F F F D D D-
1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28 1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26
Dec
6		 East Carolina B+ C A- F D 35% 31% 35% D D B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ D F A A+ C+ 42% 14% 44% F C- F F F A B+ A A-
1.18 59% 47% 24% -3 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36 1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18
Dec
16		 N.C. A&T F F D- D F 26% 28% 46% F+ F B- F+ C- A- C+ F D- D+ D A C+ C+ 28% 28% 44% C+ C+ F A+ C+ F+ B- F C-
1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17 1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27
Jan
1		 Chattanooga C- C A+ F+ C+ 40% 19% 40% C C+ A F C F A+ D A+ D+ F F C F 25% 15% 60% C- F B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.15 59% 63% 29% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.9 .38 18% .56 68% .38 1.07 79% 63% 33% +8 0 1.18 16% 0.4 .06 13% .16 56% .09
Jan
3		 Samford A+ F D+ A+ B 32% 44% 24% F C+ C+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ F F A- B+ D- 31% 14% 55% D+ D- F D F F D- A+ C+
1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35 1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24
Jan
7		 Wofford B F+ F A+ B- 44% 19% 37% C- C+ C+ A B+ B B F C F A F F+ D+ 39% 14% 46% C D+ F+ F F F F C- F+
1.23 48% 30% 53% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 13% .35 67% .23 1.40 45% 50% 38% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.8 .60 6% .40 73% .29
Jan
10		 East Tennessee St. F F F F+ F 43% 18% 39% C F B D+ B- F A+ B- A+ D F C C F 53% 17% 30% D- F A+ F B+ F A+ C+ A+
0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37 1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09
Jan
15		 The Citadel F B+ D+ F F 44% 27% 29% D- F B- F F B B F D- C+ A- B- D- D 28% 17% 56% C+ D+ B+ A A- C- A- F B-
1.01 70% 36% 20% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 13% .32 47% .15 0.96 47% 33% 37% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 17% .19 82% .16
Jan
17		 Mercer B+ A- C A B+ 40% 18% 42% C+ B+ F D F+ A+ A D+ A- F F C F F 40% 19% 42% D F F F F A- F C F
1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25 1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51
Jan
21		 VMI B F B A+ D 43% 28% 30% D+ D D C+ D+ A+ A+ D A+ F B- F B D 27% 13% 60% C+ D+ D F F F F A+ D+
1.29 45% 46% 50% +4 -1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 8% .54 70% .38 1.18 50% 57% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.6 .46 11% .37 59% .22
Jan
23		 Furman D+ A+ F F D+ 40% 13% 47% B+ C- F+ B+ D C A C+ A F F A+ F F 36% 15% 49% B- F A+ F C F A F C
1.04 74% 17% 23% -4 +1 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .33 72% .24 1.40 74% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 20% 1.4 .28 8% .20 92% .19
Jan
29		 Mercer D+ C F F F 38% 18% 45% C+ F C- A- B- A C+ D- C F C- A- F+ D 26% 12% 62% D+ D D F F F+ C+ C+ B-
1.06 57% 20% 28% -8 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20 1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 The Citadel F B+ F F F 35% 17% 48% D+ F D B- C- D- A+ F B C- F C D- F 23% 26% 51% A F+ C A+ A+ F D- C+ D
0.97 71% 25% 22% -7 0 0.90 29% 1.1 .32 18% .41 57% .23 1.05 67% 36% 37% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.2 .05 9% .32 65% .21
Feb
4		 Western Carolina C+ F B- A+ D 40% 19% 40% C+ D+ A+ D B+ D- A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F D- F 28% 26% 45% A D- D A+ B D+ F B D
1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44 1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
8		 Furman C F B A+ B 44% 19% 38% B- B F+ F F C A+ D+ A B A- F+ A A 59% 9% 33% F B B- B- B- D+ D F F+
1.06 33% 44% 56% +2 +1 1.08 23% 0.6 .14 14% .35 68% .24 1.02 52% 50% 27% -6 +3 0.96 27% 0.9 .24 17% .33 76% .25
Feb
11		 VMI B A+ A+ B- B+ 16% 20% 64% D- B F+ C- F+ B+ C+ C C+ D+ D+ A+ D- F+ 38% 7% 55% F+ F B+ D+ B- C- A+ F+ A
1.33 89% 64% 37% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 13% .32 74% .23 1.03 57% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.04 20% 1.0 .20 16% .15 78% .12
Feb
14		 Wofford A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% D A+ F+ D- F A+ A+ C- A+ F F F B- F 39% 18% 43% B- F F D- F C- F B F
1.41 55% 64% 53% +15 0 1.32 21% 1.0 .21 4% .57 76% .43 1.27 70% 56% 32% +6 0 1.16 43% 1.1 .49 14% .47 68% .32
Feb
18		 Western Carolina C- B A B- B- 51% 12% 37% A B D- F F D+ B- D- C F D+ D- F F 29% 25% 46% A- F A F F D F+ F+ F
1.09 65% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 21% 0.3 .07 17% .34 70% .24 1.29 60% 46% 42% +8 -1 1.15 27% 2.1 .57 14% .36 77% .28
Feb
21		 East Tennessee St. C+ A+ C- B- A 33% 26% 41% F+ A- C- A+ B C- D+ F D F F F F F 36% 24% 40% B+ F B- F D+ B- A- F B-
1.12 87% 33% 37% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.3 .36 19% .28 67% .19 1.30 78% 58% 45% +19 -1 1.38 25% 1.3 .33 18% .26 86% .22
Feb
26		 Chattanooga C- D B B- C 36% 21% 43% C- C- F F+ F C B- A B+ C+ B- F C+ C- 22% 19% 59% B- C- C+ C- C D C D+ C-
1.11 52% 42% 36% 0 0 1.02 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 80% .30 1.04 54% 55% 32% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 13% .27 78% .21
Feb
28		 Samford C- F D A+ D- 40% 31% 29% C D- D- A+ C B B+ F+ B- D- A B- F F 28% 17% 56% C F D F F A A+ C- A+
1.07 27% 35% 56% -3 -1 0.93 21% 1.5 .31 11% .34 68% .23 1.20 47% 33% 53% +12 0 1.26 27% 1.3 .36 19% .17 70% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 100.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 1.5 98.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 98.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.8%
Lose Out 21.0%