The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.0#363
Expected Predictive Rating-20.9#362
Pace62.8#337
Improvement-0.5#226

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#305
First Shot-3.6#280
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#259
Layup/Dunks-1.3#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#143
Freethrows-2.5#312
Improvement-2.4#350

Defense
Total Defense-10.0#365
First Shot-6.7#354
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#336
Layups/Dunks-3.9#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#331
Freethrows+1.3#113
Improvement+1.9#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 2.5% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 67.5% 55.6% 67.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 1.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 43 - 134 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 132 @Boston College L 47-76 4%     0 - 1 -24.1 -17.0 -8.9
  Mon, Nov 10 288 Charleston Southern L 86-96 31%     0 - 2 -19.9 +6.6 -26.3
  Fri, Nov 14 285 @West Georgia L 92-100 15%     0 - 3 -11.7 +10.9 -21.9
  Mon, Nov 24 292 Bellarmine L 58-70 33%     0 - 4 -22.3 -14.0 -10.3
  Wed, Nov 26 282 Houston Christian L 65-72 30%     0 - 5 -16.6 -1.1 -16.9
  Sun, Nov 30 257 Presbyterian L 41-69 18%     0 - 6 -33.4 -20.3 -21.2
  Thu, Dec 4 137 @Davidson L 63-79 4%     0 - 7 -11.4 -1.7 -11.2
  Sat, Dec 13 89 @South Carolina L 59-83 1%    
  Wed, Dec 17 180 @College of Charleston L 64-81 6%    
  Sat, Dec 20 104 @Richmond L 62-85 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 115 East Tennessee St. L 65-80 8%    
  Sat, Jan 3 208 Wofford L 69-78 21%    
  Wed, Jan 7 191 @Mercer L 68-84 8%    
  Sat, Jan 10 281 Western Carolina L 71-76 31%    
  Thu, Jan 15 293 @UNC Greensboro L 66-77 17%    
  Sat, Jan 17 337 @VMI L 69-76 26%    
  Wed, Jan 21 153 Furman L 65-77 14%    
  Sat, Jan 24 115 @East Tennessee St. L 62-83 3%    
  Thu, Jan 29 337 VMI L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 293 UNC Greensboro L 69-74 34%    
  Thu, Feb 5 228 @Samford L 66-80 11%    
  Sat, Feb 7 209 @Chattanooga L 64-79 9%    
  Wed, Feb 11 281 @Western Carolina L 68-79 16%    
  Sat, Feb 14 191 Mercer L 71-81 19%    
  Thu, Feb 19 228 Samford L 69-77 25%    
  Sat, Feb 21 209 Chattanooga L 67-76 22%    
  Wed, Feb 25 153 @Furman L 62-80 5%    
  Sat, Feb 28 208 @Wofford L 66-81 10%    
Projected Record 3 - 25 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.4 1.8 4.3 3.0 1.0 0.1 10.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.5 6.9 8.8 5.3 1.2 0.1 25.1 9th
10th 6.2 14.0 17.4 12.0 5.0 0.9 0.1 55.6 10th
Total 6.2 14.2 19.9 19.3 15.6 11.1 6.6 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 10.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.1% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.4% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 0.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
7-11 3.7% 3.7
6-12 6.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.5
5-13 11.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.1
4-14 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.6
3-15 19.3% 19.3
2-16 19.9% 19.9
1-17 14.2% 14.2
0-18 6.2% 6.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.3%