Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.8 #247
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 #292
Pace 66.5 #246
Improvement +4.6 #22

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #217 C F B C- C
Defense #271 D+ F D D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #332 1.14 #197 -4.2 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #219 0.81 #100 -0.3 #192
Three Pointers 50% #30 0.99 #228 +3.7 #67
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #206 -0.8 #207
Freethrows 15.7 #281 77% #43 12.1 #223
Second Chance 17.9% #365 1.05 #167 0.19 #364
Turnovers 14.9% #81
Total Offense -1.7 #217

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #245 1.23 #277 -0.1 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #205 0.72 #119 +0.7 #135
Three Pointers 44% #90 1.08 #266 -2.9 #300
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #254 -2.3 #254
Freethrows 19.6 #284 74% #267 14.4 #295
Second Chance 33.3% #295 1.18 #328 0.39 #330
Turnovers 14.6% #292
Total Defense -3.1 #271

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #213 0.0% #158
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #201 4.6% #265
Possession Length 17.4 #183 17.8 #260
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #187 0.18 #223
Improvement +0.7 #148 +3.9 #19

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.5% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 12.0% 21.7% 5.8%
.500 or above in Conference 56.3% 75.0% 44.2%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four2.7% 2.8% 2.6%
First Round4.0% 5.1% 3.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 39.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 410 - 913 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 42 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 4% -12  0 - 1 -6 +4 A- F F -10 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 114 @UNLV L 69 - 101 15% -11  0 - 2 -26 +1 A- F B- -28 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 225 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 35% -13  0 - 3 -19 -1 D- F B- -18 D F F
 Wed, Nov 19 359 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 76% +8  1 - 3 -0 -3 D- C- D+ +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 328 North Alabama W 71 - 57 79% +6  2 - 3 +1 +2 C C+ F +1 D+ B- B+
 Sun, Nov 30 241 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 60% -8  2 - 4 -13 -8 F D A+ -5 B F F
 Sat, Dec 6 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 61% +1  2 - 5 -12 -1 B- F C -11 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 27 Auburn L 78 - 92 4% -7  2 - 6 +1 +10 C+ F A+ -9 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 17 300 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 50% +1  2 - 7 -20 -14 F F A+ -6 C- C C
 Sun, Dec 21 301 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 51% +4  3 - 7 +2 +6 C+ F A+ -4 C- D+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 294 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 49% -1  3 - 8 0 - 1 -10 -2 B- F C -7 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 349 @VMI L 71 - 79 67% -8  3 - 9 0 - 2 -17 -7 F F C -11 F C C
 Wed, Jan 7 165 Furman L 67 - 78 45% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -15 -5 C F F -9 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 249 Samford W 88 - 79 62% +14  4 - 10 1 - 3 +1 +5 C F A+ -4 F B+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 215 @Wofford W 76 - 67 33% -2  5 - 10 2 - 3 +9 +2 A F C+ +7 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 289 @Western Carolina W 90 - 82 48% -3  6 - 10 3 - 3 +4 +21 A+ C A+ -16 F C- F
 Wed, Jan 21 135 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 67 37% -2  6 - 11 3 - 4 -2 -5 C F D+ +2 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 249 @Samford L 74 - 77 39%
 Thu, Jan 29 215 Wofford W 77 - 75 56%
 Sun, Feb 1 165 @Furman L 68 - 75 25%
 Thu, Feb 5 149 Mercer L 77 - 79 41%
 Sat, Feb 7 351 The Citadel W 77 - 66 84%
 Wed, Feb 11 135 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 76 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 289 Western Carolina W 80 - 74 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 149 @Mercer L 74 - 82 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 351 @The Citadel W 74 - 69 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 294 UNC Greensboro W 79 - 73 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 349 VMI W 79 - 68 84%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 9 -5 -2 C F B -3 D+ F D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 5.0 1.6 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.6 8.9 3.8 0.2 16.8 4th
5th 0.4 5.5 12.9 6.3 0.6 25.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 10.6 5.5 0.4 20.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 7.1 4.4 0.5 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.6 0.3 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.2 14.0 21.2 22.6 18.3 10.4 3.9 0.9 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 93.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 40.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.9% 16.8% 16.8% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-6 3.9% 15.0% 15.0% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 3.4
11-7 10.4% 9.3% 9.3% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 9.5
10-8 18.3% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.1 1.2 17.0
9-9 22.6% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1 21.5
8-10 21.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.7 20.5
7-11 14.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 13.7
6-12 6.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.1
5-13 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 15.8 94.8 0.0%