Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.2 286
Results Rating -8.6 302
Consistency 0.16 222
Pace 67.2 217
Improvement +3.3 60

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 238 C- D- B- D+ C-
Defense D 309 C- D D- D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 346 C 58% 167 -4.4 327
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 227 B 42% 58 +0.6 143
Three Pointers 49% 29 D+ 32% 265 +2.9 83
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 249 C -0.5 185
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 203
Second Chance F 20.5% 360 B- 1.10 83 D- 0.23 346
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 117
Other Turnovers B- 6.5% 84
Turnovers B- 15.3% 97
Freethrows D 0.27 304 B 76% 74 D+ 0.20 252
Total Offense C- -2.6 238

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 196 C 10.6% 157
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 272 B+ 2.4% 24
Three Pointers C+ 87% 124 C 1.0% 213
Total C 56% 162 B 4.2% 38


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 214 C 59% 196 -0.3 163
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 274 B- 35% 82 -1.6 57
Three Pointers 45% 73 C- 35% 247 +2.8 309
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 228 C +0.6 204
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 206
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 267 D- 1.15 331 D 0.37 319
Turnovers from Steals D 7.3% 325
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 337
Turnovers D- 13.3% 346
Freethrows D 0.35 310 C 72% 154 D 0.25 303
Total Defense D -4.6 309

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 166 D+ 9.1% 244
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 230 D- 1.4% 344
Three Pointers C- 85% 233 C- 0.7% 196
Total C- 58% 250 D 4.0% 312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 158 17.6 234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 232 0.20 288
Consistency 0.14 307 0.11 81
Improvement +2.6 63 +0.8 154

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 294 287 273
Results Rating Rank 323 305 289
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 8 8 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four2% 2% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 8
Quad 49 - 1111 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 32 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 2% -12  1% 0 - 1 C- -3 C+ +3 B+ D- F+ D- -7 F A+ A
 Sat, Nov 8 103 @UNLV L 69 - 101 9% -11  3% 0 - 2 F -25 D+ -3 B- F C F -23 F+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 15 264 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 34% -13  1% 0 - 3 F -21 D+ -3 D- F B F -18 F+ F F
 Wed, Nov 19 359 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 72% +8  92% 1 - 3 C -1 D -5 F C+ C B- +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 342 North Alabama W 71 - 57 79% +6  69% 2 - 3 C -2 C- -1 C- B F C+ +1 D+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 30 199 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 42% -8  0% 2 - 4 D -11 F -10 F D+ A+ C -1 B+ F+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 224 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 48% +1  53% 2 - 5 D -11 C- -2 B C- C- F+ -9 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 38 Auburn L 78 - 92 4% -7  0% 2 - 6 C -0 B- +5 C D A+ D -5 D- F A
 Wed, Dec 17 285 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 37% +1  61% 2 - 7 F -19 F -19 F F A C -0 C B- B-
 Sun, Dec 21 302 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 44% +4  78% 3 - 7 C +1 C +1 C+ D B+ C+ +1 B- D F+
 Thu, Jan 1 297 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 43% -1  35% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D -10 D -6 B- F C+ D+ -5 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 3 358 @VMI L 71 - 79 72% -8  0% 3 - 9 0 - 2 F -21 F -13 F F+ D+ F+ -9 F D+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 186 Furman L 67 - 78 41% -5  29% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F+ -16 F+ -8 C F F+ D- -8 C F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 191 Samford W 88 - 79 42% +14  98% 4 - 10 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 C F+ A+ C -1 D A- D-
 Wed, Jan 14 240 @Wofford W 76 - 67 29% -2  26% 5 - 10 2 - 3 B- +7 C- -2 B+ F C+ A +9 B A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 232 @Western Carolina W 90 - 82 27% -3  33% 6 - 10 3 - 3 B- +7 A+ +19 A+ C+ A F -11 F+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 140 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 67 30% -2  19% 6 - 11 3 - 4 C- -3 D- -8 C+ F D B +5 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 191 @Samford L 64 - 75 22% -1  37% 6 - 12 3 - 5 D -10 D+ -4 C- D- B D- -7 C+ C F
 Thu, Jan 29 240 Wofford L 55 - 81 51% -13  10% 6 - 13 3 - 6 F -34 F -24 F F C F -11 D+ D F
 Sun, Feb 1 186 @Furman L 70 - 75 21% -12  3% 6 - 14 3 - 7 C- -4 C +1 D A- D- D+ -5 D+ F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 178 Mercer W 79 - 75 38% -1  32% 7 - 14 4 - 7 C -0 D+ -3 A+ F F B- +3 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 343 The Citadel L 71 - 78 79% -2  11% 7 - 15 4 - 8 F -23 F -10 F C D F -13 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 140 @East Tennessee St. L 61 - 73 15% -4  6% 7 - 16 4 - 9 D+ -8 F+ -9 F D+ A- C+ +0 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 232 Western Carolina L 76 - 81 49% -10  1% 7 - 17 4 - 10 D- -12 D+ -4 C- B A- D- -8 C+ F D
 Thu, Feb 19 178 @Mercer W 94 - 90 20% +2  67% 8 - 17 5 - 10 B- +6 A+ +24 A+ B+ A F -18 F D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 343 @The Citadel W 93 - 72 60% +18  95% 9 - 17 6 - 10 B +11 A- +10 A+ C- F C+ +1 B D+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 297 UNC Greensboro L 80 - 85 65% -7  0% 9 - 18 6 - 11 F+ -16 F -11 D- F+ C+ D+ -5 C- B D
 Sat, Feb 28 358 VMI W 86 - 79 87% +6  93% 10 - 18 7 - 11 D- -12 B+ +8 C C- A+ F -20 F+ F F
 Fri, Mar 6 343 The Citadel W 74 - 68 71%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 11 -7 C- -3 A C C- D -5 D+ B D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C B D+ C 31% 34% 49% C- C- F B- D- B- D B D+ D C B- C- C 38% 18% 45% C- C- D+ D- D D- D C D
1.05 58% 42% 32% 0 0 1.00 20% 1.1 .23 15% .27 76% .20 1.15 59% 35% 35% +1 0 1.04 32% 1.2 .37 13% .35 72% .19
Nov
7		 St. Mary's C+ A- B+ D+ A 29% 29% 42% D- B+ D+ F D- F+ A+ A- A+ D- C F F F 40% 23% 37% B- F A+ B+ A+ A F F F
0.98 64% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .35 79% .28 1.29 59% 60% 50% +14 0 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 21% .54 93% .51
Nov
8		 UNLV D+ A+ A+ F+ B 29% 21% 50% D+ B- F B F C F A F+ F F D+ C F 41% 18% 41% C F+ F F F F+ F D F
1.02 71% 50% 29% +3 -1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 18% .27 80% .21 1.49 80% 44% 35% +11 0 1.24 52% 1.4 .71 12% .62 73% .45
Nov
15		 Florida Gulf Coast D+ D D- D F+ 42% 6% 52% A- D- F F F B A+ D- A+ F F F C+ F+ 34% 28% 38% C F+ F F F F C+ F D+
1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35 1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21
Nov
19		 South Carolina St. D B+ F+ F+ F+ 30% 21% 49% F F D- A+ C+ C A+ C- A+ B- F A+ A+ A+ 16% 37% 47% A A+ C- F F F F B+ F
1.08 69% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.98 31% 1.5 .46 17% .58 71% .41 0.91 75% 5% 25% -16 -4 0.63 30% 2.0 .60 14% .54 62% .34
Nov
22		 North Alabama C- C+ A+ D+ C 27% 15% 58% D C- A- D+ B F C+ D C C+ D A C+ D 36% 19% 45% B- D+ C C+ C B- D A+ B-
1.18 62% 57% 32% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.1 .45 20% .29 71% .21 0.94 60% 25% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .35 53% .19
Nov
30		 Tennessee St. F F+ F F F 35% 4% 62% B- F F A+ D+ A+ F A+ F C A- A- C+ A- 43% 26% 30% D- B+ A- F F+ F C+ F D
0.98 50% 0% 28% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 11% .24 86% .21 1.07 48% 29% 31% -8 0 0.85 26% 1.6 .41 12% .26 93% .24
Dec
6		 Southeast Missouri St. C- C- A A+ B+ 48% 22% 30% C B F A+ C- C- F C+ F F+ D+ B+ D- F+ 35% 19% 46% B- D- D- F F C A+ A+ A+
1.06 55% 50% 43% +5 +1 1.13 16% 1.8 .28 18% .31 76% .24 1.12 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 17% .16 56% .09
Dec
13		 Auburn B- F A+ B- B- 33% 31% 35% D- C F A+ D A+ B- A+ A- D F F F+ F 16% 26% 58% A+ D- F D+ F A F D+ F
1.11 44% 53% 37% +2 -2 1.02 13% 1.8 .22 9% .31 85% .27 1.31 86% 55% 40% +14 -2 1.26 47% 1.1 .53 19% .65 78% .51
Dec
17		 Bellarmine F A+ B F F 7% 16% 77% F+ F F F F A F+ A- D C C- A+ F C 39% 12% 49% C+ C D A+ B- B- F F F
0.94 100% 44% 23% -9 -2 0.81 24% 0.9 .22 10% .25 80% .20 1.17 63% 17% 42% +5 +1 1.14 24% 0.9 .21 18% .39 86% .34
Dec
21		 Alabama A&M C D+ C A C+ 33% 17% 50% C- C+ F A+ D B+ D D D C+ C+ B+ A B+ 43% 20% 37% F+ B- C+ F D F+ F C F+
1.14 56% 38% 42% +5 0 1.13 16% 1.6 .25 13% .29 69% .20 1.04 52% 30% 28% -8 0 0.88 23% 1.3 .31 13% .41 74% .30
Jan
1		 UNC Greensboro D A+ A+ D+ B- 25% 15% 60% C B- F F F C+ F F F D+ C- F B+ D 40% 19% 40% D- D- F B F B F C+ F
1.07 79% 63% 33% +8 0 1.18 16% 0.4 .06 13% .16 56% .09 1.15 59% 63% 29% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.9 .38 18% .56 68% .38
Jan
3		 VMI F C F F F 33% 27% 41% D F F A+ F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F D C- F 24% 11% 65% C F F B D+ C+ F C- F
1.02 63% 31% 25% -6 -1 0.88 21% 1.4 .29 17% .42 83% .35 1.14 73% 40% 33% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .28 17% .50 72% .36
Jan
7		 Furman F+ F F A C 27% 18% 55% C- C D F F F+ F B+ F D- B A+ F C+ 45% 8% 47% D- C C- F F D- F+ F F
0.98 40% 30% 40% -1 0 0.98 26% 0.7 .18 17% .14 75% .11 1.14 55% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.4 .44 16% .35 75% .26
Jan
10		 Samford B- D+ C+ B+ C- 50% 20% 30% A C F A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C F A+ C+ D 42% 17% 42% D- D A+ D- A- D- F A F
1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31 1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34
Jan
14		 Wofford C- C A+ A A- 38% 14% 48% C- B+ F F F C+ C+ D C A A- A+ C- B 35% 17% 48% B- B A- A+ A+ F F A D+
1.10 58% 57% 42% +8 +1 1.20 14% 0.8 .10 15% .32 74% .24 0.97 47% 22% 35% -6 0 0.91 23% 0.3 .08 10% .40 64% .26
Jan
17		 Western Carolina A+ B- F A+ A+ 32% 8% 60% B A+ D- A+ C+ A C+ A+ A F A F F F 40% 23% 37% C+ F+ D- A C+ F F+ A+ C-
1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31 1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22
Jan
21		 East Tennessee St. D- D+ A+ C C 41% 6% 53% B+ C+ F F F D F A+ D B B+ D+ A+ A+ 52% 13% 35% F A+ F F F D+ A+ B- A+
0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19 1.00 52% 43% 17% -12 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14
Jan
24		 Samford D+ F B C+ D+ 24% 20% 56% C+ C- F A+ D- B A F B+ D- A F B+ B+ 40% 4% 56% F C+ C C- C F F B+ F
1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25 1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40
Jan
29		 Wofford F D C- F F 35% 16% 49% D+ F D F F C B- F D- F C+ A D- C- 48% 13% 39% D D+ F A- D F C- A- C+
0.83 53% 38% 21% -12 0 0.80 24% 0.7 .17 15% .34 58% .20 1.22 54% 29% 38% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.8 .34 9% .33 65% .22
Feb
1		 Furman C F+ B D- D 25% 22% 53% D D B+ B+ A- D- B B+ B+ D+ B F D C- 50% 11% 39% D- D+ B F F C- F F F
1.06 46% 45% 30% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 17% .29 75% .22 1.14 55% 60% 35% +1 +2 1.09 26% 1.6 .41 18% .39 76% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Mercer D+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 18% 47% C A+ F F F F A+ C- A+ B- A- A+ B A+ 37% 26% 37% C+ A+ F A+ C+ D F D F
1.09 81% 25% 48% +15 0 1.33 14% 0.7 .10 24% .45 76% .34 1.04 50% 18% 31% -10 -1 0.81 42% 0.8 .32 14% .69 77% .53
Feb
7		 The Citadel F C+ B+ F F 31% 20% 48% D- F D+ A- C D F B+ F F F D A F 40% 10% 50% F F B+ F F F B F C-
1.04 65% 45% 27% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.2 .35 18% .14 75% .11 1.15 76% 40% 27% +2 +2 1.10 21% 1.8 .39 13% .22 85% .19
Feb
11		 East Tennessee St. F+ F F F+ F 37% 16% 47% C F F A+ D+ A- F A+ D- C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 47% 17% 36% D+ A+ B D- C+ F F C+ F
0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18 1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43
Feb
14		 Western Carolina D+ C A+ D- C 30% 25% 46% D- C- D- A+ B A- F A+ F D- A D C C+ 35% 18% 47% C C+ F D F D F F F
1.10 59% 64% 31% +4 -1 1.09 21% 1.7 .34 12% .10 100% .10 1.18 44% 44% 33% -4 0 0.94 47% 1.1 .53 15% .42 80% .34
Feb
19		 Mercer A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C- A+ B- B+ B+ A B A- B+ F D F+ F F 35% 18% 47% C- F B+ F D+ F F A+ D+
1.45 72% 64% 48% +19 0 1.40 36% 1.1 .40 12% .30 82% .25 1.39 65% 44% 52% +16 0 1.35 27% 1.3 .36 9% .46 59% .27
Feb
21		 The Citadel A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 16% 54% D A+ F A+ C- F C+ A- B- C+ B A+ B- B+ 22% 11% 67% C B F A D+ F F A+ D-
1.29 80% 63% 48% +22 0 1.46 23% 1.4 .32 19% .29 76% .22 1.00 50% 0% 31% -9 0 0.83 38% 0.8 .29 12% .51 44% .22
Feb
26		 UNC Greensboro F D A+ D D- 22% 19% 59% D+ D- F C+ F+ C+ C+ B+ B- D+ B- D D+ C- 36% 21% 43% D+ C- B+ C B D C- F F+
1.04 54% 55% 32% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 13% .27 78% .21 1.11 52% 42% 36% 0 0 1.02 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 80% .30
Feb
28		 VMI B+ A+ C- B+ C+ 25% 26% 49% F+ C F A+ C- A+ F C+ F F C- A+ D+ F+ 30% 4% 66% F+ F+ D+ F F F D- B D+
1.36 79% 40% 39% +9 -2 1.18 29% 1.3 .38 3% .13 75% .10 1.25 56% 0% 34% -2 +2 1.02 28% 1.5 .42 2% .34 67% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 100.0 100.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 1.8 98.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.3%
Lose Out 27.8%