East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#117
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#128
Pace68.9#197
Improvement+3.9#10

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#131
First Shot+2.8#100
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#278
Layup/Dunks+5.3#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#260
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement+2.5#26

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#113
First Shot+0.2#171
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#79
Layups/Dunks+3.8#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#318
Freethrows-0.6#227
Improvement+1.4#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.3% 41.9% 35.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 98.9% 97.8%
Conference Champion 56.4% 60.3% 51.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round39.2% 41.9% 35.7%
Second Round3.6% 4.3% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 35 - 5
Quad 418 - 323 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 262 @Presbyterian L 64-68 71%     0 - 1 -6.5 -3.1 -3.7
  Wed, Nov 12 192 Northern Kentucky W 75-63 78%     1 - 1 +7.0 -2.7 +9.2
  Sat, Nov 15 200 @North Alabama W 78-74 60%     2 - 1 +4.5 +7.4 -2.8
  Fri, Nov 21 325 Morehead St. W 77-62 92%     3 - 1 +2.3 +3.9 -0.4
  Sun, Nov 23 360 Louisiana Monroe W 97-55 96%     4 - 1 +24.8 +17.5 +7.7
  Sat, Nov 29 279 Central Arkansas W 80-57 87%     5 - 1 +13.8 +2.4 +10.9
  Tue, Dec 2 70 @Dayton L 71-88 23%     5 - 2 -5.9 +0.8 -5.9
  Fri, Dec 5 166 South Alabama W 91-65 75%     6 - 2 +22.2 +18.1 +4.7
  Fri, Dec 12 180 @Austin Peay W 73-71 56%    
  Tue, Dec 16 22 @North Carolina L 68-83 8%    
  Sat, Dec 20 239 Jacksonville St. W 72-61 84%    
  Wed, Dec 31 363 @The Citadel W 79-64 92%    
  Sat, Jan 3 194 Mercer W 82-74 78%    
  Wed, Jan 7 341 VMI W 83-65 95%    
  Sat, Jan 10 281 UNC Greensboro W 80-67 88%    
  Wed, Jan 14 289 @Western Carolina W 78-71 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 231 @Samford W 76-72 65%    
  Wed, Jan 21 222 @Chattanooga W 74-70 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 363 The Citadel W 82-61 97%    
  Thu, Jan 29 289 Western Carolina W 81-68 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 247 @Wofford W 75-70 67%    
  Wed, Feb 4 148 Furman W 76-70 69%    
  Sat, Feb 7 341 @VMI W 80-68 85%    
  Wed, Feb 11 222 Chattanooga W 77-67 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 231 Samford W 79-69 82%    
  Wed, Feb 18 148 @Furman L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 281 @UNC Greensboro W 77-70 73%    
  Wed, Feb 25 247 Wofford W 78-67 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 194 @Mercer W 79-77 58%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.2 10.9 15.0 14.2 8.5 2.8 56.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.3 7.7 6.2 2.4 0.4 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.9 10.3 14.3 17.6 17.5 14.6 8.5 2.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.8    2.8
17-1 100.0% 8.5    8.4 0.1
16-2 97.6% 14.2    13.1 1.1
15-3 86.1% 15.0    11.7 3.2 0.1
14-4 62.2% 10.9    6.3 4.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 29.3% 4.2    1.3 2.1 0.8 0.1
12-6 7.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 56.4% 56.4 43.6 10.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.8% 64.1% 64.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.0
17-1 8.5% 58.0% 58.0% 12.5 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.6
16-2 14.6% 51.9% 51.9% 13.0 0.1 1.6 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.0
15-3 17.5% 46.5% 46.5% 13.4 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.1 0.5 9.3
14-4 17.6% 40.1% 40.1% 13.7 0.3 2.3 3.5 0.9 0.0 10.5
13-5 14.3% 32.2% 32.2% 14.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.1 0.1 9.7
12-6 10.3% 27.6% 27.6% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 7.4
11-7 6.9% 19.6% 19.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 5.5
10-8 3.9% 16.3% 16.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.3
9-9 2.2% 12.4% 12.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
8-10 1.0% 10.1% 10.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
7-11 0.4% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.3% 39.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.9 14.0 13.2 4.7 0.7 60.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.9 3.8 5.7 7.5 15.1 22.6 41.5 3.8