East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #135
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #164
Pace 65.1 #282
Improvement -1.9 #266

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #145 C C- C+ C+ B-
Defense #137 D+ B+ A- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #33 1.21 #112 +5.1 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #199 0.81 #97 +0.0 #174
Three Pointers 36% #294 0.91 #303 -4.6 #320
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #162 +0.6 #161
Freethrows 17.7 #185 76% #61 13.5 #136
Second Chance 26.7% #288 1.12 #84 0.30 #221
Turnovers 15.7% #132
Total Offense +0.6 #145

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #243 1.22 #265 +0.0 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #330 0.71 #102 +2.4 #25
Three Pointers 48% #23 1.06 #242 -4.9 #342
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #261 -2.5 #261
Freethrows 17.0 #154 76% #335 13.0 #196
Second Chance 30.9% #198 0.85 #13 0.26 #53
Turnovers 19.6% #36
Total Defense +0.9 #137

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #97 1.1% #272
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #178 3.7% #249
Possession Length 18.4 #283 17.1 #148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #220 0.20 #279
Improvement -1.1 #244 -0.8 #243

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.1% 32.3% 27.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 98.4%
Conference Champion 67.1% 68.3% 44.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round32.1% 32.3% 27.0%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 34 - 5
Quad 418 - 422 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 266 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 66% -2  0 - 1 -7 -4 F A+ F -3 C F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 178 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 71% +8  1 - 1 +8 -3 A+ F F +10 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 328 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 80% -8  2 - 1 -3 +2 B+ F A -6 F F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 302 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 88% +2  3 - 1 +4 +3 F B- C+ +2 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 361 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 96% +20  4 - 1 +23 +15 A+ A C +8 A+ C B
 Sat, Nov 29 236 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 80% +10  5 - 1 +16 +2 A+ F A +13 A+ B B
 Tue, Dec 2 73 @Dayton L 71 - 88 19% -10  5 - 2 -6 +3 B+ C+ F -8 F C+ A+
 Fri, Dec 5 191 South Alabama W 91 - 65 73% +5  6 - 2 +21 +19 C A+ A+ +2 F A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 12 171 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 48% -6  6 - 3 +1 +5 C+ D- A+ -4 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 31 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 8% -10  6 - 4 -2 +1 D B A- -5 D C D+
 Sat, Dec 20 216 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 77% -1  6 - 5 -12 +10 A+ D D -23 F C B
 Tue, Dec 30 351 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 85% +13  7 - 5 1 - 0 +15 +3 C- B- F +15 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 149 Mercer W 77 - 71 65% +1  8 - 5 2 - 0 +4 +4 F A+ C- -0 C- A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 349 VMI W 81 - 67 93% +10  9 - 5 3 - 0 -1 +4 B+ D- B -5 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 294 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 87% +10  10 - 5 4 - 0 +15 +3 A F B+ +12 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 289 @Western Carolina L 68 - 72 71% +0  10 - 6 4 - 1 -8 -0 F F A+ -8 F C- A
 Sat, Jan 17 249 @Samford W 76 - 75 63% +5  11 - 6 5 - 1 -1 +12 B+ C B+ -13 F C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 247 @Chattanooga W 67 - 66 63% +2  12 - 6 6 - 1 -1 -5 F B+ C +4 D A A+
 Fri, Jan 23 351 The Citadel W 78 - 61 95%
 Thu, Jan 29 289 Western Carolina W 81 - 69 86%
 Sat, Jan 31 215 @Wofford W 75 - 73 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 165 Furman W 72 - 67 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 349 @VMI W 78 - 67 85%
 Wed, Feb 11 247 Chattanooga W 76 - 67 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 249 Samford W 78 - 69 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 165 @Furman L 69 - 70 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 294 @UNC Greensboro W 77 - 71 72%
 Wed, Feb 25 215 Wofford W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 149 @Mercer L 76 - 78 42%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2 +1 C C- C+ +1 D+ B+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 9.1 19.8 20.9 12.3 3.7 67.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.2 9.2 4.9 0.7 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 3.9 1.3 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.1 10.9 19.5 24.7 21.6 12.3 3.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 3.7    3.7
16-2 100.0% 12.3    12.1 0.2
15-3 96.9% 20.9    17.9 3.0
14-4 80.1% 19.8    12.4 6.9 0.5
13-5 46.5% 9.1    3.1 4.3 1.6 0.1
12-6 12.3% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 67.1% 67.1 49.2 14.9 2.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.7% 48.2% 48.2% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.9
16-2 12.3% 42.1% 42.1% 13.3 0.5 2.7 1.9 0.1 7.1
15-3 21.6% 35.9% 35.9% 13.8 0.1 2.4 4.2 1.0 0.0 13.8
14-4 24.7% 33.7% 33.7% 14.1 0.0 1.2 4.7 2.3 0.1 16.4
13-5 19.5% 28.0% 28.0% 14.4 0.4 2.6 2.4 0.1 14.1
12-6 10.9% 21.3% 21.3% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.1 8.6
11-7 5.1% 18.7% 18.7% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 4.2
10-8 1.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
9-9 0.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.1% 32.1% 0.0% 13.9 67.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 12.4 5.4 56.1 36.0 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%