East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.2 141
Results Rating -0.9 173
Consistency 0.15 172
Pace 65.5 259
Improvement -2.8 281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 145 C+ C- C+ B- C+
Defense C 156 C- C+ B C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 61 C+ 60% 120 +3.4 66
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 122 B- 41% 74 +0.4 151
Three Pointers 37% 266 D+ 32% 259 -3.0 278
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 126 C +0.4 152
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 142
Second Chance D+ 27.1% 270 B- 1.11 70 C- 0.30 196
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 127
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 167
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 137
Freethrows C+ 0.32 143 B 76% 61 B- 0.24 107
Total Offense C +0.7 145

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 125 B- 9.0% 75
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 312 C 5.1% 193
Three Pointers C+ 86% 153 C 1.0% 225
Total C- 54% 203 C+ 5.3% 147


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 212 D+ 61% 260 +0.6 203
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 332 B+ 33% 24 -2.6 13
Three Pointers 47% 33 C- 35% 239 +3.7 333
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 276 C- +1.0 216
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 233
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 157 B- 0.97 91 C+ 0.29 108
Turnovers from Steals A- 12.9% 13
Other Turnovers D- 5.8% 347
Turnovers B 18.8% 65
Freethrows C 0.30 183 D+ 74% 278 C 0.22 201
Total Defense C +0.4 156

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 209 C 11.2% 162
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 25% 174 B 7.2% 58
Three Pointers D+ 87% 281 C 0.9% 157
Total D+ 61% 295 C 5.7% 165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 282 17.0 130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 213 0.20 284
Consistency 0.10 39 0.13 218
Improvement -1.0 242 -1.8 275

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 154 143 129
Results Rating Rank 187 175 140
Conference Record 13 - 5 13 - 5 13 - 5
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35% 42% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round35% 42% 0%
Second Round1% 2% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 417 - 621 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 271 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 66% -2  33% 0 - 1 D+ -7 D- -7 F A D- C -1 C F A
 Wed, Nov 12 188 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 72% +8  98% 1 - 1 B- +7 D -5 A+ F F A+ +12 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 342 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 84% -8  8% 2 - 1 D+ -5 C -0 B F A D -5 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 21 283 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 84% +2  47% 3 - 1 B- +5 C +0 F+ B- C+ B+ +6 D A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 354 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 95% +20  97% 4 - 1 A+ +25 A +12 A A C+ A+ +13 A+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 171 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 68% +10  84% 5 - 1 A +19 C +0 A F A+ A+ +18 A+ B B
 Tue, Dec 2 75 @Dayton L 71 - 88 18% -10  17% 5 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 B+ B- F D+ -5 F B- B+
 Fri, Dec 5 186 South Alabama W 91 - 65 72% +5  53% 6 - 2 A +21 A+ +16 C A+ A+ B+ +5 D- A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 12 177 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 47% -6  1% 6 - 3 C +1 C +1 C+ D C+ C -0 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 26 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 6% -10  3% 6 - 4 C -1 C- -1 D+ B- A- C- -3 C- D+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 192 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 72% -1  45% 6 - 5 D -11 B+ +8 A+ D+ D+ F -19 F C- B
 Tue, Dec 30 343 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 85% +13  88% 7 - 5 1 - 0 A- +15 C+ +2 D+ B- D A+ +16 A- D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 178 Mercer W 77 - 71 70% +1  50% 8 - 5 2 - 0 C+ +2 C +1 F A+ C- C+ +1 D+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 358 VMI W 81 - 67 96% +10  96% 9 - 5 3 - 0 D+ -5 C- -2 B- D C+ C- -3 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 300 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 87% +10  88% 10 - 5 4 - 0 A- +15 C -0 A- F+ B+ A+ +14 A+ D A+
 Wed, Jan 14 231 @Western Carolina L 68 - 72 58% +0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 1 C- -5 D+ -2 D F A+ C- -3 F C+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 191 @Samford W 76 - 75 51% +5  96% 11 - 6 5 - 1 C+ +2 A +12 A- C A- F -10 F B- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 286 @Chattanooga W 67 - 66 70% +2  72% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C- -3 F+ -9 F A- D+ B+ +6 D A+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 343 The Citadel W 84 - 55 93% +18  89% 13 - 6 7 - 1 B+ +13 B+ +8 B A- B+ A- +7 C A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 231 Western Carolina L 88 - 90 78% -9  0% 13 - 7 7 - 2 D -9 B+ +9 C+ C+ A+ F -18 F F C-
 Sun, Feb 1 240 @Wofford W 86 - 72 60% +5  90% 14 - 7 8 - 2 B+ +13 A +14 F+ A+ A+ C -0 C- D C+
 Wed, Feb 4 185 Furman W 75 - 71 OT 72% -5  10% 15 - 7 9 - 2 C -1 D -4 C F B- B +4 F B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 358 @VMI W 87 - 70 90% +10  91% 16 - 7 10 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +2 A- A- F C+ +1 D- C- C+
 Wed, Feb 11 286 Chattanooga W 73 - 61 85% +4  82% 17 - 7 11 - 2 C+ +2 D -4 F D- A+ B+ +7 A C- C
 Sat, Feb 14 191 Samford L 72 - 82 OT 72% -2  22% 17 - 8 11 - 3 F+ -15 F -12 F+ D+ D- C- -2 A F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 185 @Furman W 78 - 69 50% +3  66% 18 - 8 12 - 3 B +10 B +6 A F D B +4 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 300 @UNC Greensboro W 87 - 75 73% +4  75% 19 - 8 13 - 3 B- +7 A- +10 A+ C F C- -3 F F+ A-
 Wed, Feb 25 240 Wofford L 69 - 72 79% +0  45% 19 - 9 13 - 4 D -10 F+ -9 B- F+ D- C -1 B D F
 Sat, Feb 28 178 @Mercer L 76 - 82 47% -8  0% 19 - 10 13 - 5 C- -4 B +6 C- B- A F -11 F C+ D
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1 C +1 B+ C C+ C +0 D+ B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ B- D+ C 43% 42% 37% C+ C+ D+ B- C- C+ C+ B B- C D+ B+ C- C- 38% 16% 47% D+ C- C+ B- C+ B C D+ C
1.10 60% 41% 32% 0 0 1.04 27% 1.1 .30 16% .32 76% .24 1.08 61% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.05 30% 1.0 .29 19% .30 74% .24
Nov
8		 Presbyterian D- D- A F F 38% 17% 45% C- F B+ A A D- A+ A A+ C B+ A+ F+ B- 45% 15% 40% F C D- F F A F D- F
0.99 50% 50% 14% -14 0 0.74 36% 1.2 .44 19% .40 76% .30 1.05 50% 17% 38% -5 +1 0.95 37% 1.3 .47 25% .53 73% .39
Nov
12		 Northern Kentucky D B A+ A+ A 67% 12% 21% A+ A+ F F F F A+ C A+ A+ B- A- A B+ 38% 13% 49% C B+ D- A+ A+ A+ B C B-
1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35 0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18
Nov
15		 North Alabama C A+ A- C B+ 35% 18% 47% D B F F F A D- F F D C+ A+ F D- 41% 13% 46% D+ D- D+ F F B F+ F F
1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13 1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31
Nov
21		 Morehead St. C C+ A F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F+ B+ C- B- C+ A+ B A+ B+ F+ C D F+ 31% 33% 36% A- D C- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
1.18 60% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45 0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36
Nov
23		 Louisiana Monroe A A+ A- A+ A 43% 17% 40% C A B- A A C+ F A+ D- A+ C A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C+ A+ B D C+ B A- F+ B
1.40 76% 50% 43% +15 +1 1.34 39% 1.4 .54 14% .17 80% .14 0.79 53% 20% 21% -15 -1 0.71 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 79% .20
Nov
29		 Central Arkansas C A B- A- A 35% 9% 56% B- A F D- F A+ C- F F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 17% 13% 70% B+ A+ A+ F B B A+ D- A+
1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13 0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
2		 Dayton C- B B B- B+ 37% 24% 39% C B+ B+ D+ B- F C- A+ B- D+ F F B- F 42% 16% 42% C+ F F+ A+ B- B+ F D F
0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23 1.19 89% 43% 32% +12 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48
Dec
5		 South Alabama A+ C- F D+ C- 36% 7% 57% B+ C A- A+ A+ A+ F B F+ B+ A- A+ F D 46% 8% 46% F D- A- A+ A+ B+ B- A+ B+
1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12 0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16
Dec
12		 Austin Peay C B B+ C- C+ 41% 16% 43% C+ C+ D D- D C+ F+ A D C C+ F D+ D- 39% 12% 49% D D- D A+ A+ C- C+ F D
1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19 1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25
Dec
16		 North Carolina C- C F F+ D 28% 26% 46% C D+ F+ A+ B- A- A+ D+ A C- F B+ B- C 39% 7% 55% F+ C- B+ F D+ D+ F+ B D
0.95 54% 25% 29% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.5 .26 12% .30 69% .20 1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.4 .42 12% .43 65% .28
Dec
20		 Jacksonville St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 21% 39% D+ A+ F+ A- D+ D+ A+ C+ A+ F D F F F 45% 5% 50% D- F F A+ C- B F B- F
1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45 1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36
Dec
30		 The Citadel C+ C- D B- D 51% 13% 36% B- D+ C+ B- B- D A A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A 24% 11% 64% C- A- D D+ D A+ C- B+ C
1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31 0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17
Jan
3		 Mercer C F A+ F F 58% 7% 35% A+ F A+ B+ A+ C- A+ A A+ C+ F A- B- C- 38% 13% 48% F+ D+ C+ A+ A+ B+ B- B- B
1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42 1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22
Jan
7		 VMI C- B+ A+ B- B- 43% 23% 34% C B- F A+ D C+ B A- B+ C- C F+ A C- 42% 13% 44% D C- D+ A+ A+ F F A F
1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27 1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28
Jan
10		 UNC Greensboro C A+ C D+ B+ 53% 17% 30% A- A- F A+ F+ B+ F B- F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F+ A+ F B D A+ F F+ F
1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09 0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37
Jan
14		 Western Carolina D+ C F D+ D- 44% 14% 42% B D C+ F F A+ A C- A- C- D+ F D F 36% 17% 47% C- F D- A C+ A B D B-
1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29 1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18
Jan
17		 Samford A A+ C A+ A+ 31% 44% 24% F A- F A+ C A- B- A+ A+ F A- F F F 24% 16% 60% C F B+ D B- F+ A+ F B
1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30 1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20
Jan
21		 Chattanooga F+ D B+ F F 52% 13% 35% A- F C+ A A- D+ F C+ F B+ B- F C- C- 41% 6% 53% F D C+ A+ A+ A B+ F C+
1.00 52% 43% 17% -12 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14 0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19
Jan
23		 The Citadel B+ A+ A+ B- B 37% 8% 55% C+ B D+ A+ A- B+ C+ C+ C+ A- A+ A+ F C 31% 16% 53% C C A+ A- A+ D C- A+ A
1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21 0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11
Jan
29		 Western Carolina B+ C A+ C C+ 40% 20% 40% C C+ C- B C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F F A+ D- F 33% 15% 52% C- F C- F F C- F D F
1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45 1.31 87% 14% 38% +8 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Wofford A D F D- F 59% 14% 27% B+ F+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C B- F B+ C+ 58% 8% 34% F C- A F D C+ B- F C
1.32 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.94 38% 1.7 .66 9% .47 93% .44 1.11 52% 75% 29% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 15% .29 81% .24
Feb
4		 Furman D C- F A+ C+ 44% 25% 31% C- C F+ F F B- A+ B- A B F F C+ F 45% 9% 47% D- F B+ B B+ A+ A A A
1.03 54% 29% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .35 73% .25 0.98 76% 75% 32% +10 +2 1.26 25% 0.9 .21 29% .19 60% .12
Feb
7		 VMI C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% F A- C+ A+ A- F D A+ C C+ B F C- D 39% 6% 56% F D- A+ F C- C+ C B- C+
1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22 0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19
Feb
11		 Chattanooga D F F F+ F 47% 17% 36% B- F F B- D- A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A A+ B+ A+ 37% 16% 47% D- A B+ F C- C B+ F B-
1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43 0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18
Feb
14		 Samford F F+ B+ F F 42% 24% 35% B F+ D- B+ D+ D- A- B- A- C- B+ A+ A A+ 36% 15% 49% D A B- F F C- F F F
0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27 1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48
Feb
18		 Furman B F B A+ A 41% 18% 41% B- A C F F D A B- A B D F+ A+ A+ 30% 12% 58% B- A+ D B+ C+ F F F F
1.14 43% 44% 52% +6 +1 1.16 30% 0.5 .16 16% .33 74% .24 1.01 67% 50% 17% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 13% .47 75% .35
Feb
21		 UNC Greensboro A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 24% 40% C- A+ D- A C F C A+ B C- F B- D F 33% 26% 41% B- F D+ F F+ A- A B- A
1.30 78% 58% 45% +19 -1 1.38 25% 1.3 .33 18% .26 86% .22 1.12 87% 33% 37% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.3 .36 19% .28 67% .19
Feb
25		 Wofford F+ A+ C- F B- 55% 18% 27% C+ B- D+ F F+ D- A+ F C C C A+ B+ B 39% 17% 44% C+ B B- F D F B- F+ C
1.04 79% 38% 17% +4 +1 1.14 26% 0.9 .22 18% .40 59% .24 1.08 57% 22% 29% -6 +1 0.91 26% 1.3 .34 9% .30 78% .23
Feb
28		 Mercer B D C+ B+ C- 36% 24% 40% D+ C- B- C+ B- A C- B- C F C+ A- F F 38% 17% 45% D F C+ C C+ D F A+ F
1.19 50% 42% 40% +2 -1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 13% .25 79% .20 1.28 56% 29% 53% +10 0 1.24 31% 1.0 .31 14% .66 64% .42



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 34.5% 34.5% 14.0 0.3 6.5 20.6 7.0 0.1 65.5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.5% 34.5% 0.0% 14.0 65.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 34.5% 100.0% 14.0 0.9 18.9 59.7 20.3 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 18.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 30.5%
Lose Out 16.9%