North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.2 #31
Expected Predictive Rating +15.3 #27
Pace 71.1 #117
Improvement -4.5 #347

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #22 A- A- A B- B
Defense #48 A- A+ D A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.30 #54 +5.0 #37
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #288 0.83 #73 -1.2 #240
Three Pointers 42% #153 1.11 #57 +2.7 #99
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #32 +6.4 #33
Freethrows 20.9 #36 68% #309 14.2 #101
Second Chance 36.1% #39 1.14 #66 0.41 #40
Turnovers 13.3% #21
Total Offense +9.1 #22

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #339 0.96 #11 +7.7 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #16 0.65 #39 -1.6 #305
Three Pointers 41% #194 1.06 #233 -0.7 #207
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #40 +5.4 #40
Freethrows 11.8 #5 69% #43 8.1 #3
Second Chance 24.9% #20 0.86 #16 0.21 #9
Turnovers 14.2% #310
Total Defense +5.1 #48

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #65 -3.2% #17
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.5% #38 -7.6% #52
Possession Length 15.4 #33 19.3 #362
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #84 0.09 #8
Improvement +1.0 #128 -5.5 #361

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.0% 6.8% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 20.6% 36.3% 15.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.6% 94.6% 82.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.1% 94.3% 81.8%
Average Seed 7.8 7.1 8.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 86.7% 63.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four7.0% 2.5% 8.6%
First Round82.5% 93.7% 78.5%
Second Round47.7% 59.2% 43.6%
Sweet Sixteen14.2% 20.3% 12.1%
Elite Eight4.7% 6.8% 4.0%
Final Four1.5% 1.9% 1.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 26.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 24 - 210 - 10
Quad 36 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 023 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 236 Central Arkansas W 94 - 54 97% +24  1 - 0 +33 +11 A A+ B- +19 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 7 19 Kansas W 87 - 74 50% +2  2 - 0 +27 +21 A+ D+ D+ +6 B- B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 253 Radford W 89 - 74 97% +11  3 - 0 +7 -3 F D+ A +7 A+ A D-
 Fri, Nov 14 346 NC Central W 97 - 53 99% +20  4 - 0 +29 +17 B- A+ A- +12 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 194 Navy W 73 - 61 95% +10  5 - 0 +7 -0 B F D- +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 136 St. Bonaventure W 85 - 70 88% +11  6 - 0 +17 +10 A- A- D+ +7 B+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 27 11 Michigan St. L 58 - 74 29% -4  6 - 1 +4 +8 C C+ A+ -6 C- B C
 Tue, Dec 2 25 @Kentucky W 67 - 64 32% -2  7 - 1 +22 +9 D A+ D+ +13 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 93 Georgetown W 81 - 61 86% +7  8 - 1 +23 +8 A+ D- A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 303 South Carolina Upstate W 80 - 62 98% +8  9 - 1 +7 +11 B+ C+ A+ -3 B- C F
 Tue, Dec 16 135 East Tennessee St. W 77 - 58 92% +10  10 - 1 +18 +15 A A+ A+ +5 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 20 30 Ohio St. W 71 - 70 50% +4  11 - 1 +15 +9 B A A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 267 East Carolina W 99 - 51 97% +24  12 - 1 +39 +16 A+ B+ B- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 111 Florida St. W 79 - 66 89% +7  13 - 1 1 - 0 +14 +6 D+ B A+ +7 A+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 29 @SMU L 83 - 97 38% -5  13 - 2 1 - 1 +3 +17 A+ F A+ -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 63 Wake Forest W 87 - 84 79% +8  14 - 2 2 - 1 +9 +16 A+ A+ B -8 F B A-
 Wed, Jan 14 77 @Stanford L 90 - 95 64% +5  14 - 3 2 - 2 +6 +19 A+ A+ A+ -13 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 75 @California L 78 - 84 63% -11  14 - 4 2 - 3 +5 +10 A+ C B- -5 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 21 84 Notre Dame W 91 - 69 83% +14  15 - 4 3 - 3 +26 +22 A+ A+ A- +4 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 16 @Virginia L 72 - 79 26%
 Sat, Jan 31 113 @Georgia Tech W 83 - 75 77%
 Mon, Feb 2 67 Syracuse W 82 - 73 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 3 Duke L 75 - 80 31%
 Tue, Feb 10 40 @Miami (FL) L 78 - 79 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 91 Pittsburgh W 81 - 70 86%
 Tue, Feb 17 26 @North Carolina St. L 78 - 82 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 67 @Syracuse W 79 - 76 61%
 Mon, Feb 23 13 Louisville L 81 - 82 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 58 Virginia Tech W 82 - 75 75%
 Tue, Mar 3 32 Clemson W 73 - 70 61%
 Sat, Mar 7 3 @Duke L 72 - 83 15%
Totals 21 - 10 9 - 9 +14 +9 A- A- A +5 A- A+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.1 3.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 3.6 0.7 6.4 4th
5th 1.3 5.8 2.4 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.5 5.8 5.5 0.4 12.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.6 8.8 1.7 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 8.7 4.2 0.1 14.4 8th
9th 0.2 4.8 6.6 0.7 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 5.7 1.9 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.2 3.4 3.2 0.2 6.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 4.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.5 1.1 0.1 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.1 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.9 9.4 15.9 21.4 20.8 15.4 8.2 3.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 73.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 21.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.7% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 3.1% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 4.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 8.2% 99.8% 9.7% 90.1% 5.8 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 15.4% 99.4% 5.8% 93.6% 6.6 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 4.9 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 99.4%
10-8 20.8% 97.9% 3.5% 94.4% 7.7 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.9 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 0.4 97.9%
9-9 21.4% 92.9% 2.4% 90.5% 8.6 0.1 0.6 2.6 6.0 6.6 3.5 0.6 1.5 92.7%
8-10 15.9% 77.7% 1.3% 76.5% 9.6 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.3 4.8 2.5 3.6 77.4%
7-11 9.4% 51.5% 1.2% 50.3% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 2.4 0.0 4.5 50.9%
6-12 3.9% 22.0% 0.4% 21.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 3.0 21.7%
5-13 1.0% 5.4% 5.4% 11.0 0.1 1.0 5.4%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 85.6% 3.8% 81.9% 7.8 14.4 85.1%