North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#21
Expected Predictive Rating+20.9#11
Pace74.0#77
Improvement-2.4#321

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#35
First Shot+3.9#73
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#23
Layup/Dunks+7.8#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#277
Freethrows+2.6#57
Improvement-1.8#314

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#19
First Shot+4.8#46
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#53
Layups/Dunks+4.8#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#218
Freethrows+4.1#11
Improvement-0.6#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.1% 2.3% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 7.0% 7.5% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 29.6% 31.4% 17.2%
Top 6 Seed 56.3% 58.8% 40.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.4% 92.5% 83.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.6% 91.8% 83.0%
Average Seed 5.9 5.7 6.7
.500 or above 99.2% 99.5% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 86.7% 76.6%
Conference Champion 8.8% 9.3% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four3.5% 3.2% 5.6%
First Round89.6% 90.9% 80.9%
Second Round63.7% 65.6% 50.8%
Sweet Sixteen28.9% 30.2% 20.3%
Elite Eight11.3% 11.9% 7.1%
Final Four4.4% 4.7% 2.3%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 0.7%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 86.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 35 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 273 Central Arkansas W 94-54 98%     1 - 0 +30.9 +11.5 +16.5
  Fri, Nov 7 18 Kansas W 87-74 58%     2 - 0 +26.1 +21.5 +4.4
  Tue, Nov 11 290 Radford W 89-74 98%     3 - 0 +5.0 -1.5 +4.4
  Fri, Nov 14 336 NC Central W 97-53 99%     4 - 0 +30.0 +18.1 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 198 Navy W 73-61 96%     5 - 0 +6.6 -1.7 +8.3
  Tue, Nov 25 111 St. Bonaventure W 85-70 85%     6 - 0 +18.8 +13.4 +5.1
  Thu, Nov 27 10 Michigan St. L 58-74 35%     6 - 1 +3.0 +5.1 -4.5
  Tue, Dec 2 23 @Kentucky W 67-64 39%     7 - 1 +21.0 +9.5 +11.8
  Sun, Dec 7 85 Georgetown W 84-72 87%    
  Sat, Dec 13 278 South Carolina Upstate W 89-65 99%    
  Tue, Dec 16 115 East Tennessee St. W 84-69 92%    
  Sat, Dec 20 25 Ohio St. W 78-77 52%    
  Mon, Dec 22 245 East Carolina W 88-65 98%    
  Tue, Dec 30 100 Florida St. W 88-75 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 40 @SMU W 80-79 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 53 Wake Forest W 83-75 77%    
  Wed, Jan 14 84 @Stanford W 81-76 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 69 @California W 80-76 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 56 Notre Dame W 78-69 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 26 @Virginia L 75-77 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 134 @Georgia Tech W 80-70 82%    
  Mon, Feb 2 61 Syracuse W 80-71 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 3 Duke L 73-77 37%    
  Tue, Feb 10 34 @Miami (FL) L 77-78 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 92 Pittsburgh W 79-66 87%    
  Tue, Feb 17 35 @North Carolina St. L 82-83 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 61 @Syracuse W 77-74 60%    
  Mon, Feb 23 14 Louisville W 82-81 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 70 Virginia Tech W 83-73 82%    
  Tue, Mar 3 33 Clemson W 77-72 67%    
  Sat, Mar 7 3 @Duke L 70-80 19%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 2.5 0.8 0.2 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.1 2.5 0.3 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.7 2.5 0.2 12.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 6.1 3.0 0.4 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 4.9 1.2 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.2 0.1 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 3.1 3.1 0.4 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.2 1.0 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.4 2.3 1.7 0.1 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.0 2.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.9 9.9 12.8 15.1 15.3 12.9 9.8 5.9 2.8 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.1
16-2 89.1% 2.5    1.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 54.1% 3.2    1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-4 17.9% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 50.8% 49.2% 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.8% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 2.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.9% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 2.8 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.8% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 3.6 0.3 1.2 3.2 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.9% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 4.4 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.2 3.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.3% 99.9% 7.2% 92.7% 5.3 0.1 1.0 2.9 4.7 4.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 15.1% 99.3% 4.9% 94.4% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 4.2 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
10-8 12.8% 97.4% 2.7% 94.7% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.3 3.2 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.3 97.3%
9-9 9.9% 91.7% 2.0% 89.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.4 2.7 1.5 0.4 0.8 91.5%
8-10 6.9% 75.2% 1.1% 74.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.0 1.7 74.9%
7-11 4.1% 40.9% 0.8% 40.1% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.0 2.5 40.4%
6-12 2.2% 14.5% 14.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.9 14.5%
5-13 0.8% 5.7% 5.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.7%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 91.4% 8.1% 83.3% 5.9 2.1 4.9 9.8 12.8 13.9 12.9 11.1 8.8 7.3 4.8 2.9 0.1 8.6 90.6%