Stanford
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #77
Expected Predictive Rating +12.6 #43
Pace 68.9 #181
Improvement -0.2 #196

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #93 B- C+ B- A- A+
Defense #71 B C+ A- D B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #26 1.13 #201 +3.6 #67
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #355 0.78 #142 -4.4 #356
Three Pointers 46% #90 1.09 #80 +4.0 #56
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #91 +3.2 #90
Freethrows 21.2 #22 72% #188 15.3 #40
Second Chance 34.8% #66 1.02 #217 0.35 #106
Turnovers 15.5% #119
Total Offense +3.5 #93

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.13 #139 +0.7 #145
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #25 0.74 #142 -2.5 #337
Three Pointers 34% #344 0.91 #64 +5.3 #16
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #72 +3.6 #72
Freethrows 18.8 #248 76% #334 14.3 #290
Second Chance 26.8% #57 1.10 #254 0.29 #110
Turnovers 19.4% #43
Total Defense +4.1 #71

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.1% #9 -1.8% #49
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.1% #146 -5.3% #82
Possession Length 16.9 #130 17.6 #222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #100 0.11 #25
Improvement -0.6 #215 +0.4 #161

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.1% 34.1% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.9% 33.9% 18.3%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 9.9
.500 or above 98.8% 99.8% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 48.7% 59.9% 31.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.3% 2.4%
First Four9.1% 10.4% 7.1%
First Round22.3% 27.4% 14.2%
Second Round6.4% 8.1% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Home) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 35 - 6
Quad 25 - 310 - 9
Quad 36 - 415 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 153 Portland St. W 89 - 79 83% +6  1 - 0 +8 +7 B A- F -1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 161 Montana W 91 - 68 84% +11  2 - 0 +20 +10 B- C- A+ +8 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 152 Montana St. W 77 - 68 83% +4  3 - 0 +7 -1 C- C C- +7 C B A+
 Tue, Nov 18 312 Louisiana W 93 - 66 96% +12  4 - 0 +15 +15 B+ C- A- -1 D B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 121 Seattle L 69 - 77 77% +2  4 - 1 -8 -1 D C A+ -7 C D- A
 Thu, Nov 27 71 Minnesota W 72 - 68 48% +1  5 - 1 +12 +10 D- A+ A+ +2 D F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 28 Saint Louis W 78 - 77 25% -6  6 - 1 +16 +10 B C+ B +6 A+ F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 210 Portland W 94 - 72 90% +14  7 - 1 +16 +20 A+ A+ A+ -4 F C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 114 UNLV L 74 - 75 75% +2  7 - 2 -1 -1 F A+ F +1 C+ A- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 238 @San Jose St. W 86 - 82 80% +8  8 - 2 +3 +12 A+ A+ F -9 C+ F F
 Wed, Dec 17 156 Texas Arlington W 76 - 60 84% +12  9 - 2 +13 +8 A B- C- +6 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 78 Colorado W 77 - 68 50% +3  10 - 2 +17 +6 C- B A- +11 A C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 27 207 Cal St. Northridge W 88 - 80 89% +1  11 - 2 +2 +6 A+ F D- -5 D A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 84 Notre Dame L 40 - 47 63% -5  11 - 3 0 - 1 -3 -22 F F A+ +18 A+ B- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 13 Louisville W 80 - 76 23% +3  12 - 3 1 - 1 +19 +20 A+ A+ A -1 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 58 @Virginia Tech W 69 - 68 31% -5  13 - 3 2 - 1 +14 +14 A+ B A+ +0 B+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 16 @Virginia L 55 - 70 11% -6  13 - 4 2 - 2 +6 -2 C F F +7 A- A+ C
 Wed, Jan 14 31 North Carolina W 95 - 90 36% -5  14 - 4 3 - 2 +16 +22 A+ F A -6 C- D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 3 Duke L 50 - 80 14% -15  14 - 5 3 - 3 -11 -8 D- A F -6 B F C
 Sat, Jan 24 75 California W 75 - 72 61%
 Wed, Jan 28 40 @Miami (FL) L 71 - 79 23%
 Sat, Jan 31 111 @Florida St. W 80 - 79 54%
 Wed, Feb 4 32 Clemson L 67 - 70 37%
 Sat, Feb 7 113 Georgia Tech W 79 - 72 75%
 Wed, Feb 11 134 @Boston College W 70 - 67 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 63 @Wake Forest L 73 - 77 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 75 @California L 72 - 75 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 91 Pittsburgh W 74 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 29 SMU L 76 - 80 36%
 Wed, Mar 4 84 @Notre Dame L 69 - 72 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 26 @North Carolina St. L 71 - 82 16%
Totals 19 - 12 8 - 10 +8 +3 B- C+ B- +4 B C+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.1 1.1 0.1 5.1 5th
6th 0.3 4.0 3.3 0.2 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.9 6.1 1.1 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 7.5 3.3 0.1 12.2 8th
9th 0.2 5.2 6.6 0.7 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 2.0 7.9 2.1 0.0 12.0 10th
11th 0.3 5.3 4.7 0.3 0.0 10.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.7 5.6 1.2 0.0 8.6 12th
13th 0.2 3.6 2.4 0.1 6.3 13th
14th 0.0 1.1 3.1 0.3 4.5 14th
15th 0.1 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.4 15th
16th 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.0 9.7 15.9 20.5 19.8 15.1 8.8 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 14.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.2% 97.6% 2.4% 95.1% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.5%
13-5 1.3% 94.1% 1.6% 92.5% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 94.0%
12-6 3.6% 88.2% 1.1% 87.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.4 88.1%
11-7 8.8% 73.6% 0.6% 73.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.4 0.7 2.3 73.4%
10-8 15.1% 54.3% 0.5% 53.8% 10.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.8 2.4 0.0 6.9 54.1%
9-9 19.8% 31.8% 0.2% 31.6% 10.4 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.1 0.0 13.5 31.7%
8-10 20.5% 10.6% 0.1% 10.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.0 18.3 10.6%
7-11 15.9% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 15.5 2.2%
6-12 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.2%
5-13 4.0% 4.0
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.1% 0.3% 27.8% 9.8 71.9 27.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%