Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#46
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#48
Pace77.5#32
Improvement-0.8#245

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#64
First Shot+5.4#46
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#194
Layup/Dunks+7.6#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#113
Freethrows-1.0#237
Improvement-0.7#241

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#35
First Shot+2.2#105
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#13
Layups/Dunks+5.8#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#186
Freethrows-2.1#303
Improvement-0.1#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 3.9% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.4% 39.8% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.8% 21.0% 7.7%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 97.3% 92.8%
Conference Champion 34.3% 34.5% 20.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.3% 7.4% 2.7%
First Round36.0% 36.3% 18.4%
Second Round16.7% 16.9% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 4.5% 1.8%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.6% 0.4%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 2
Quad 25 - 37 - 5
Quad 37 - 114 - 6
Quad 412 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 233 Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 95%     1 - 0 +17.8 +8.0 +7.4
  Thu, Nov 6 350 Chicago St. W 108-86 98%     2 - 0 +7.2 +7.3 -4.2
  Mon, Nov 10 246 Lindenwood W 109-66 95%     3 - 0 +35.3 +19.6 +9.9
  Sat, Nov 15 94 Grand Canyon W 78-64 80%     4 - 0 +16.1 +4.0 +11.2
  Fri, Nov 21 236 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-60 95%     5 - 0 +23.5 +11.8 +11.6
  Thu, Nov 27 55 Santa Clara W 71-70 56%     6 - 0 +10.6 +1.3 +9.3
  Fri, Nov 28 84 Stanford L 77-78 67%     6 - 1 +5.6 +5.2 +0.5
  Tue, Dec 2 143 @Loyola Marymount W 91-70 74%     7 - 1 +25.3 +14.6 +8.8
  Sun, Dec 7 309 Central Michigan W 87-65 98%    
  Sat, Dec 13 99 San Francisco W 81-72 80%    
  Wed, Dec 17 218 Bethune-Cookman W 86-68 95%    
  Sun, Dec 21 344 New Hampshire W 87-62 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 184 Saint Joseph's W 85-69 93%    
  Wed, Jan 7 43 @Virginia Commonwealth L 76-80 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 229 @La Salle W 80-68 86%    
  Wed, Jan 14 211 Fordham W 81-64 94%    
  Sat, Jan 17 104 Richmond W 83-73 81%    
  Tue, Jan 20 135 @Duquesne W 85-79 72%    
  Fri, Jan 23 111 @St. Bonaventure W 76-72 65%    
  Tue, Jan 27 62 George Washington W 87-82 68%    
  Fri, Jan 30 67 Dayton W 79-73 69%    
  Tue, Feb 3 137 @Davidson W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 229 La Salle W 83-65 95%    
  Fri, Feb 13 259 @Loyola Chicago W 82-68 89%    
  Tue, Feb 17 110 @Rhode Island W 79-75 65%    
  Fri, Feb 20 43 Virginia Commonwealth W 79-77 59%    
  Tue, Feb 24 67 @Dayton L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Feb 28 135 Duquesne W 88-76 87%    
  Wed, Mar 4 259 Loyola Chicago W 85-65 96%    
  Sat, Mar 7 66 @George Mason L 73-74 49%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 6.2 10.9 9.4 4.8 1.3 34.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.8 8.7 4.0 0.6 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.2 6.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.9 1.8 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 3.4 1.6 0.1 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.5 1.4 0.2 4.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 1.3 0.2 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 6.2 9.2 13.5 16.7 17.1 15.0 10.0 4.9 1.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.4% 4.8    4.7 0.1
16-2 94.1% 9.4    7.8 1.6 0.0
15-3 72.3% 10.9    6.1 4.0 0.7 0.0
14-4 36.4% 6.2    2.0 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.7% 1.6    0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 22.0 8.9 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 100.0% 55.0% 45.0% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.9% 94.2% 47.7% 46.5% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 88.9%
16-2 10.0% 78.4% 37.2% 41.1% 8.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.0 2.2 65.5%
15-3 15.0% 60.0% 31.8% 28.2% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.0 3.2 0.1 6.0 41.4%
14-4 17.1% 43.9% 27.4% 16.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.4 0.1 9.6 22.7%
13-5 16.7% 29.2% 20.9% 8.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 0.3 11.8 10.6%
12-6 13.5% 19.0% 15.9% 3.1% 11.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.4 11.0 3.7%
11-7 9.2% 11.7% 11.3% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.8 0.2 8.1 0.5%
10-8 6.2% 7.4% 7.1% 0.3% 11.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.7 0.3%
9-9 3.3% 3.7% 3.7% 11.5 0.1 0.1 3.2
8-10 1.6% 2.9% 2.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-11 0.8% 3.3% 3.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.4% 23.5% 15.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.7 2.1 3.1 4.9 8.6 15.4 1.4 0.0 60.6 20.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 3.4 5.3 14.4 33.0 36.7 8.5 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 5.4 6.1 20.4 32.7 28.6 4.1 4.1 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 6.1 4.6 6.2 18.5 27.7 36.9 3.1 3.1