George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.1 #86
Expected Predictive Rating +16.2 #25
Pace 63.1 #327
Improvement -2.0 #272

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #77 B- C B A+ C
Defense #101 B- A- C- B+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #152 1.30 #47 +3.4 #76
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #141 0.75 #186 +0.6 #149
Three Pointers 38% #241 1.02 #171 -1.2 #225
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #104 +2.7 #105
Freethrows 23.3 #5 73% #174 16.9 #5
Second Chance 31.2% #166 1.04 #184 0.32 #163
Turnovers 14.8% #75
Total Offense +4.4 #77

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.18 #203 +2.2 #103
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #66 0.65 #36 -0.2 #196
Three Pointers 41% #171 1.00 #160 +0.2 #171
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #117 +2.1 #117
Freethrows 14.2 #31 73% #246 10.4 #40
Second Chance 26.5% #48 0.91 #31 0.24 #27
Turnovers 15.8% #216
Total Defense +2.7 #101

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #212 -1.6% #57
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.7% #92 -2.7% #135
Possession Length 18.6 #304 17.6 #237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #225 0.14 #69
Improvement -0.6 #217 -1.4 #270

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 17.3% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.2% 8.1% 3.9%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.8% 98.5%
Conference Champion 14.5% 19.7% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.7% 5.9% 3.2%
First Round11.9% 13.7% 9.7%
Second Round2.5% 2.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 24 - 24 - 5
Quad 310 - 215 - 7
Quad 410 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 215 Wofford W 70 - 46 89% +9  1 - 0 +18 -3 D C F +23 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 130 Winthrop W 96 - 90 78% +0  2 - 0 +5 +13 A+ D D+ -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 323 New Hampshire W 61 - 44 96% +7  3 - 0 +4 -12 F C F +17 A+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 292 Jacksonville W 79 - 57 94% +12  4 - 0 +11 +8 A+ F F +5 B- B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 196 Ohio W 92 - 69 81% +20  5 - 0 +21 +21 A B+ A+ +1 B- D- B-
 Tue, Nov 25 95 Florida Atlantic W 74 - 65 56% +11  6 - 0 +15 +18 A+ C A+ -2 C+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 231 James Madison W 82 - 66 90% +1  7 - 0 +9 +8 A+ F F +2 A C+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 187 Cornell W 99 - 81 86% +5  8 - 0 +13 +14 A+ F D -2 D- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 58 @Virginia Tech L 62 - 73 29% -10  8 - 1 +2 +1 C B F +0 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 240 Old Dominion W 73 - 61 91% +10  9 - 1 +5 -4 D- F C- +9 A- D+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 324 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 79 96% -1  10 - 1 -6 +9 F C+ A+ -15 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 28 182 Penn W 83 - 79 86% +3  11 - 1 -0 +8 B- A A+ -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 197 @La Salle W 80 - 75 74% -5  12 - 1 1 - 0 +5 +16 F A+ A+ -10 C B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 122 Rhode Island W 61 - 50 76% +4  13 - 1 2 - 0 +11 -2 B- F A+ +14 A A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 193 @Fordham W 67 - 58 73% +1  14 - 1 3 - 0 +10 +4 D+ D+ C +7 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 55 Virginia Commonwealth W 86 - 80 49% +1  15 - 1 4 - 0 +13 +20 A A+ A+ -6 C C+ D-
 Tue, Jan 13 268 @Loyola Chicago W 82 - 74 83% -3  16 - 1 5 - 0 +5 +15 C+ A+ C+ -9 F D- F
 Mon, Jan 19 72 George Washington W 69 - 64 58% +1  17 - 1 6 - 0 +10 -2 B+ C D +12 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 122 @Rhode Island W 69 - 68 55%
 Wed, Jan 28 137 Davidson W 73 - 64 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 136 @St. Bonaventure W 73 - 70 60%
 Wed, Feb 4 118 Duquesne W 79 - 72 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 159 Saint Joseph's W 74 - 64 83%
 Tue, Feb 10 120 @Richmond W 73 - 72 55%
 Fri, Feb 13 72 @George Washington L 75 - 79 37%
 Wed, Feb 18 73 Dayton W 70 - 68 58%
 Wed, Feb 25 159 @Saint Joseph's W 71 - 67 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 136 St. Bonaventure W 76 - 67 78%
 Tue, Mar 3 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Mar 7 28 Saint Louis L 73 - 77 34%
Totals 24 - 6 13 - 5 +7 +4 B- C B +3 B- A- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 4.7 1.9 0.4 14.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.8 10.9 14.8 8.4 2.0 0.1 39.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 9.4 8.7 2.4 0.2 23.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.7 4.8 0.7 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 2.6 0.4 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.6 11.4 17.6 20.6 19.6 13.4 6.7 2.0 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 96.3% 1.9    1.5 0.4
16-2 69.6% 4.7    2.6 2.0 0.0
15-3 36.1% 4.8    1.8 2.6 0.4
14-4 11.9% 2.3    0.3 1.2 0.7 0.1
13-5 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 6.7 6.4 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 73.0% 18.9% 54.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 66.7%
17-1 2.0% 59.6% 20.6% 39.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 49.1%
16-2 6.7% 38.0% 17.3% 20.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 0.0 4.2 25.0%
15-3 13.4% 25.2% 13.2% 12.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.7 0.1 10.0 13.8%
14-4 19.6% 15.7% 10.5% 5.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 0.2 16.5 5.8%
13-5 20.6% 11.2% 9.0% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.3 18.3 2.5%
12-6 17.6% 7.6% 6.5% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 1.1 0.3 16.2 1.1%
11-7 11.4% 4.8% 4.6% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.9 0.2%
10-8 5.6% 2.1% 2.0% 0.1% 11.5 0.1 0.1 5.4 0.1%
9-9 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 2.1
8-10 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.8% 9.2% 5.7% 10.8 85.2 6.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 75.0% 8.9 10.0 10.0 30.0 25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 64.3% 9.7 7.1 3.6 10.7 21.4 21.4