Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.5 199
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 201
Pace 72.8 71
Improvement -0.9 226

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #176 C D+ C+ C C-
Defense C- #237 C D+ C- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 217 58% 163 -0.6 201
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 111 50% 6 +4.1 28
Three Pointers 39% 225 30% 309 -3.1 287
1st FG Attempt 1.03 161 +0.4 159
Second Chance 28.5% 236 0.98 247 0.28 250
Turnovers 16.4% 150
Freethrows 0.32 149 70% 254 0.22 170
Total Offense -0.6 176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 71 56% 121 -1.5 233
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 171 41% 273 -0.6 241
Three Pointers 36% 312 35% 239 +1.6 116
1st FG Attempt 1.03 198 -0.5 198
Second Chance 33.9% 312 1.02 172 0.35 261
Turnovers 16.4% 209
Freethrows 0.32 232 74% 264 0.24 248
Total Defense -1.9 237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 258 +0.3 224
Shot Type Accuracy +0.9 142 +0.2 192
Possession Length 16.7 118 16.9 118
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 331 0.15 104
Improvement -0.3 #200 -0.7 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.4 15.1
.500 or above 30% 62% 25%
.500 or above in Conference 87% 99% 85%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 13.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 66 - 12
Quad 48 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 141 Arkansas St. L 85 - 89 47% +2  61% 0 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +2 B+ F B D- -8 C- F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 94 Illinois St. W 72 - 68 32% +2  74% 1 - 1 B- +6 C- -1 A- F+ A+ B+ +8 B A C
 Tue, Nov 11 40 @St. Mary's L 60 - 90 5% -15  11% 1 - 2 D- -14 D- -6 D- A- F D- -8 C F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 11 @Louisville L 81 - 106 2% -14  0% 1 - 3 C- -2 B+ +8 A+ D- F D- -9 C+ F C-
 Wed, Nov 19 227 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 76 65% -4  10% 1 - 4 D -10 C- -1 C F A D- -9 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 89 George Mason L 69 - 92 22% -20  0% 1 - 5 F+ -17 C- -1 C B+ D+ F -17 D- F F
 Tue, Nov 25 151 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 70 39% -4  38% 1 - 6 D- -12 F -16 F D- F B +5 A- D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 338 Maine W 79 - 57 87% +12  88% 2 - 6 B- +7 B +6 C+ C B- B- +3 B+ F+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 164 Marshall W 88 - 81 53% +6  93% 3 - 6 C+ +4 B +7 B+ D A C- -3 B- D- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 134 St. Bonaventure W 88 - 83 OT 34% +2  70% 4 - 6 B- +7 C+ +3 B A+ A- B- +3 B+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 20 158 Bowling Green L 58 - 68 53% -9  8% 4 - 7 0 - 1 D- -13 F -15 F C- F+ C+ +1 B F+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 296 @Central Michigan W 80 - 64 58% +5  53% 5 - 7 1 - 1 B+ +11 D- -6 F+ F C A+ +16 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 231 @Eastern Michigan W 68 - 67 43% -9  8% 6 - 7 2 - 1 C +0 D+ -2 B F F B- +3 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 183 Massachusetts W 86 - 83 57% +3  71% 7 - 7 3 - 1 C -1 C+ +3 A D C+ D+ -5 D A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 202 Buffalo W 91 - 80 62% +4  59% 8 - 7 4 - 1 B- +5 B +6 A A+ F C -1 B+ D D+
 Tue, Jan 13 165 @Toledo L 85 - 101 31% -4  47% 8 - 8 4 - 2 D- -13 B+ +8 C+ A- B+ F -22 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 16 310 @Ball St. L 71 - 76 63% -8  0% 8 - 9 4 - 3 D -11 C- -2 C- D- C+ D- -9 F+ D+ D+
 Tue, Jan 20 314 Northern Illinois W 80 - 77 82% +5  78% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D -9 C- -2 C C D+ D -7 F B+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 72 Akron L 65 - 86 24% -15  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F+ -16 F -13 F D+ A+ C- -2 C+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 147 @Kent St. L 57 - 72 27% -4  12% 9 - 11 5 - 5 D- -11 F -19 F D- B- A- +8 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 202 @Buffalo W 95 - 83 39% +8  92% 10 - 11 6 - 5 B+ +12 A+ +15 B- C A+ C- -3 D- D B-
 Tue, Feb 3 295 Western Michigan W 91 - 71 78% +13  96% 11 - 11 7 - 5 B +9 B+ +9 A B- C C+ +1 D A F
 Sat, Feb 7 253 @Old Dominion L 72 - 78 48% +0  38% 11 - 12 D -8 C +2 B- D+ B F+ -10 C F F
 Fri, Feb 13 87 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 88 13%
 Tue, Feb 17 310 Ball St. W 75 - 66 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 314 @Northern Illinois W 77 - 73 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 165 Toledo W 81 - 80 54%
 Tue, Mar 3 183 @Massachusetts L 79 - 83 36%
 Fri, Mar 6 87 Miami (OH) L 79 - 85 29%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3 C -1 C D+ C+ C- -2 C D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C A+ D C+ 37% 24% 39% C- C C- C- D+ C+ C+ D+ C C- C+ D+ C- C 43% 21% 36% C- C D C D+ C- C- D+ C-
1.08 58% 50% 30% +1 -1 1.03 29% 1.0 .28 16% .32 70% .22 1.11 56% 41% 35% 0 0 1.03 34% 1.0 .35 16% .32 74% .23
Nov
3		 Arkansas St. C+ C+ A+ C- B+ 41% 17% 42% B- B+ D- F F B C D+ C- D- A F C- C 42% 4% 54% F C- D- F F A- F F F
1.13 63% 70% 32% +6 +1 1.15 20% 0.6 .11 13% .34 68% .23 1.18 45% 100% 35% -2 +2 1.02 42% 1.6 .68 24% .49 89% .44
Nov
6		 Illinois St. C- B+ C+ F B- 70% 16% 14% A+ A- F D- F+ A+ A+ F B- B+ B+ F A- A- 44% 18% 38% D- B B+ A A C A+ A+ A+
1.03 66% 38% 14% +1 +3 1.10 16% 0.8 .13 11% .44 56% .24 0.97 54% 50% 29% -3 +1 0.98 23% 0.9 .21 16% .19 55% .10
Nov
11		 St. Mary's D- C+ B- F D- 34% 28% 38% D+ D- B A+ A- F F A+ F+ D- B- B+ F C 42% 19% 38% C- C D- F F D- D+ B C-
0.86 56% 40% 15% -11 -1 0.77 29% 1.2 .34 20% .13 86% .11 1.30 55% 30% 45% +3 0 1.10 42% 1.5 .65 13% .36 77% .28
Nov
15		 Louisville B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 31% 42% D+ A+ A- F D- F A+ A- A+ D- B B+ F C+ 35% 15% 50% B+ C+ F F F C- F B F
1.06 57% 50% 41% +8 -2 1.13 33% 0.4 .14 22% .44 77% .34 1.39 58% 38% 44% +8 +1 1.19 44% 1.5 .67 14% .46 73% .34
Nov
19		 Bethune-Cookman C- B A+ F C 51% 22% 27% C C C- F F A A+ D- A+ D- B F F F 48% 23% 29% D+ F A+ A A+ F A A+ A
1.08 62% 55% 14% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.8 .23 10% .46 68% .31 1.13 52% 58% 53% +10 0 1.23 16% 0.8 .13 12% .24 57% .13
Nov
24		 George Mason C- B- A D+ B 18% 40% 42% F C A C B+ D+ A+ F+ A- F B- A+ F D- 35% 15% 51% D+ D- F D+ F F B+ C+ B+
1.02 63% 44% 32% +2 -4 0.98 36% 0.9 .33 18% .36 65% .23 1.36 58% 25% 46% +8 0 1.18 41% 1.1 .44 9% .33 70% .23
Nov
25		 Loyola Marymount F F D+ D F 37% 20% 43% B- F D+ F D- F A+ F A+ B B- F A+ A 38% 19% 42% D- A- F A- D+ A- D D+ D
0.81 29% 33% 30% -14 0 0.74 29% 0.8 .22 24% .53 59% .31 0.97 55% 50% 23% -6 0 0.90 38% 0.9 .33 22% .30 71% .21
Dec
3		 Maine B D+ A+ C- C 49% 16% 35% B C+ A+ F C B- F A+ F B- C- A+ A A- 46% 21% 33% D B+ F C+ F+ B+ A+ F+ A-
1.21 56% 56% 32% 0 +1 1.05 53% 0.8 .39 17% .13 100% .13 0.87 59% 10% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.0 .29 24% .20 70% .14
Dec
6		 Marshall B F A+ A+ B+ 33% 24% 43% C B+ F+ B- D A A+ C- A C- D B- A+ A 48% 11% 41% F B- D- D+ D- D+ F+ D+ F+
1.21 44% 54% 43% +5 -1 1.11 25% 1.0 .25 12% .46 69% .31 1.12 67% 33% 22% -4 +2 0.98 37% 1.2 .43 17% .33 75% .25
Dec
13		 St. Bonaventure C+ C+ A+ D A- 33% 33% 35% F B D A+ A+ A- F A F+ B- C+ C A B+ 43% 33% 24% B B+ D- B C C+ D+ F F+
1.14 61% 67% 32% +9 -2 1.16 24% 2.2 .52 14% .20 85% .17 1.08 56% 42% 29% -1 -1 0.97 40% 0.9 .34 18% .30 89% .27
Dec
20		 Bowling Green F A A+ F F 26% 13% 62% C- F D+ B- C- F+ A+ F A+ C+ A D D+ B+ 53% 16% 31% D+ B F D F+ A+ F F F
0.86 70% 60% 17% -10 0 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 22% .57 63% .36 1.01 46% 43% 36% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.9 .32 24% .45 83% .37
Dec
30		 Central Michigan D- D+ A+ F F 55% 13% 32% B+ F+ F C F C A+ F+ A+ A+ F+ B- A+ A 53% 22% 25% F B+ A A+ A+ B- F C F
1.04 55% 57% 18% -7 +2 0.92 25% 1.2 .30 16% .52 65% .34 0.83 67% 36% 0% -9 +1 0.86 21% 0.5 .11 19% .37 70% .26
Jan
3		 Eastern Michigan D+ A+ B+ D A- 28% 26% 46% F+ B C- F F F D+ C- D+ B- D- A F F+ 33% 33% 33% B+ D- D- A+ A+ C- F A- F
1.02 79% 46% 30% +6 -1 1.10 28% 0.4 .11 21% .29 73% .21 1.01 67% 27% 47% +6 -2 1.09 32% 0.3 .11 17% .49 67% .32
Jan
6		 Massachusetts C+ B B A+ A 34% 17% 49% C- A F B D C+ D D D- D+ C- D F+ D- 44% 25% 32% C D B- A+ A+ D A- F B-
1.16 67% 44% 42% +10 0 1.23 19% 1.2 .22 16% .34 67% .23 1.12 60% 43% 39% +4 0 1.11 30% 0.6 .19 16% .27 76% .21
Jan
10		 Buffalo B A+ A+ A- A+ 43% 26% 32% D A A+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+ C B+ F B B+ 41% 19% 41% C B+ F B- D D+ C- A+ B
1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31 1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22
Jan
13		 Toledo B+ D+ A+ B- B 31% 33% 37% F C+ C+ A+ A- B+ A F B F D+ F F F 40% 30% 30% B- F F F F D- C+ F D-
1.21 56% 59% 37% +8 -2 1.13 36% 1.2 .44 16% .32 63% .20 1.44 62% 75% 44% +17 -1 1.34 46% 1.4 .63 13% .28 94% .26
Jan
16		 Ball St. C- C+ A+ F C+ 33% 39% 29% F C- D- C- D- C+ A- C A- D- C- D C- F 36% 23% 41% C+ F+ D+ C- D+ D+ F F F
1.06 63% 53% 29% +5 -3 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 18% .35 79% .27 1.14 56% 40% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 15% .55 81% .44
Jan
20		 Northern Illinois C- B- D B+ C+ 42% 25% 33% D- C F+ A+ C D+ A C A- D A+ F F F 45% 14% 41% C- F C A+ B+ B- F F F
1.10 65% 33% 38% +4 0 1.08 24% 1.4 .34 19% .42 72% .31 1.06 40% 50% 50% +3 +1 1.11 32% 0.6 .19 23% .48 74% .36
Jan
23		 Akron F F D F F 38% 34% 29% F F F A D+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C- C+ F B C 41% 30% 30% A C+ D+ A+ A+ C F C- F
0.88 33% 32% 25% -15 -2 0.68 23% 1.2 .28 12% .42 78% .33 1.17 59% 56% 31% +5 -1 1.09 35% 0.8 .29 16% .42 77% .32
Jan
27		 Kent St. F F F F F 42% 9% 49% B+ F D- D- D- B- D C- D A- A+ F A+ A+ 52% 7% 40% F A F C+ F A+ F C F
0.79 36% 20% 23% -19 +2 0.68 24% 0.8 .20 14% .27 71% .19 1.00 41% 67% 24% -13 +3 0.81 46% 1.1 .49 28% .68 74% .50
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Buffalo A+ A A+ F B 46% 28% 26% D B- C+ C- C A+ A+ B- A+ C- D F F F+ 48% 26% 26% B- D- B+ F D B- F B F
1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30 1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32
Feb
3		 Western Michigan B+ A A A- A 35% 8% 58% B- A C- A- B- C B+ A+ A C+ C+ A+ F D 52% 21% 27% F+ D A+ B+ A F F A+ B
1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30 1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16
Feb
7		 Old Dominion C A+ B D+ B+ 30% 24% 46% D- B- D+ C- D+ B F F F F+ F A+ F D+ 34% 45% 21% A+ C F D F F D+ F F
1.11 80% 42% 30% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.0 .26 12% .26 67% .18 1.20 78% 17% 45% +1 -3 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 9% .31 89% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.4 4.1 3rd
4th 1.1 14.1 16.2 4.1 0.1 35.6 4th
5th 0.3 10.1 16.1 1.9 28.4 5th
6th 0.0 3.4 13.4 2.3 0.0 19.1 6th
7th 0.4 6.2 3.0 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 1.1 1.8 0.1 2.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.8 11.7 27.6 32.6 19.7 6.0 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.6% 3.4% 3.4% 12.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 6.0% 3.8% 3.8% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
11-7 19.7% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.2 0.4 19.1
10-8 32.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 31.8
9-9 27.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.2 0.4 27.0
8-10 11.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.6
7-11 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.0 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 1.7%