Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#136
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#99
Pace78.4#16
Improvement+3.5#25

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#114
First Shot-1.4#207
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#19
Layup/Dunks+0.1#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#194
Freethrows+0.9#116
Improvement+3.5#7

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#182
First Shot-2.6#263
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#40
Layups/Dunks+0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#216
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement+0.0#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.2% 29.4% 20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 99.2% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.4% 96.2%
Conference Champion 48.6% 54.3% 31.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.2% 29.4% 20.6%
Second Round1.7% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 74.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 37 - 47 - 7
Quad 414 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 189 @Ohio W 89-85 52%     1 - 0 +5.1 +9.7 -4.9
  Fri, Nov 7 132 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-90 38%     1 - 1 -20.2 -7.6 -11.3
  Tue, Nov 11 254 @Missouri St. W 86-85 65%     2 - 1 -1.2 +3.1 -4.5
  Wed, Nov 19 44 @St. Mary's L 72-85 12%     2 - 2 +1.7 +9.2 -7.6
  Fri, Nov 21 42 @SMU L 69-100 11%     2 - 3 -15.9 -7.0 -5.0
  Mon, Nov 24 236 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 81%     3 - 3 +3.5 -4.2 +7.2
  Fri, Nov 28 155 North Dakota St. W 85-80 OT 66%     4 - 3 +2.4 +1.5 +0.3
  Tue, Dec 2 167 Texas Arlington W 83-63 70%     5 - 3 +16.4 +8.7 +7.0
  Sat, Dec 6 309 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90-78 75%     6 - 3 +6.5 +13.2 -7.0
  Sat, Dec 13 231 @Rice L 76-77 62%     6 - 4 -2.4 +3.6 -5.9
  Wed, Dec 17 255 @Texas St. W 89-70 65%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +16.8 +13.6 +2.5
  Sat, Dec 20 207 @Southern Miss W 93-86 57%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +7.0 +17.8 -11.0
  Sun, Jan 4 198 James Madison W 83-76 75%    
  Wed, Jan 7 139 Troy W 80-77 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 255 Texas St. W 81-71 82%    
  Thu, Jan 15 190 @South Alabama W 76-75 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 139 @Troy L 77-80 40%    
  Thu, Jan 22 213 @Georgia Southern W 87-85 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 330 @Georgia St. W 84-75 80%    
  Wed, Jan 28 217 Old Dominion W 85-77 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 161 Marshall W 84-79 67%    
  Wed, Feb 4 230 @Coastal Carolina W 80-77 61%    
  Wed, Feb 11 359 Louisiana Monroe W 92-72 96%    
  Sat, Feb 14 190 South Alabama W 79-72 73%    
  Thu, Feb 19 314 @Louisiana W 75-67 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 359 @Louisiana Monroe W 89-75 89%    
  Tue, Feb 24 207 Southern Miss W 84-76 76%    
  Fri, Feb 27 314 Louisiana W 78-64 89%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.6 11.3 14.2 11.1 5.3 1.5 48.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.1 8.5 6.5 2.1 0.3 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.4 3.5 0.6 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.9 8.7 12.9 16.9 18.4 16.4 11.3 5.3 1.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 5.3    5.2 0.1
16-2 97.7% 11.1    10.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 86.7% 14.2    10.8 3.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 61.3% 11.3    5.9 4.5 0.9 0.1
13-5 27.1% 4.6    1.2 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 48.6% 48.6 34.8 10.5 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 51.6% 51.6% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7
17-1 5.3% 47.5% 47.5% 12.6 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.1 2.8
16-2 11.3% 42.5% 42.5% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.2 0.1 6.5
15-3 16.4% 37.8% 37.8% 13.5 0.4 2.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.2
14-4 18.4% 32.5% 32.5% 13.8 0.1 1.9 3.1 0.9 0.0 12.4
13-5 16.9% 23.9% 23.9% 14.0 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.9 0.0 12.9
12-6 12.9% 14.3% 14.3% 14.1 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 11.0
11-7 8.7% 8.0% 8.0% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.0
10-8 4.9% 5.8% 5.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
9-9 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
8-10 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.0
7-11 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.2% 27.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 2.5 10.2 10.9 3.2 0.1 72.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 11.7 0.4 38.2 51.1 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%