Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.0 146
Results Rating +0.4 151
Consistency 0.16 244
Pace 78.6 9
Improvement +2.0 120

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 138 C- B D- B- B-
Defense C 171 C C+ D+ C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 192 C 59% 153 +0.1 179
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 278 D 34% 315 -2.6 302
Three Pointers 46% 76 D+ 32% 272 +1.3 141
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 98 C- -1.8 244
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 214
Second Chance B+ 37.3% 20 C 1.03 181 B 0.38 51
Opponents' Steals F+ 11.8% 348
Other Turnovers D+ 8.1% 286
Turnovers D- 19.9% 337
Freethrows B- 0.33 83 C+ 74% 145 B- 0.25 79
Total Offense C+ +1.0 138

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 187 C 10.9% 171
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 231 F+ 9.2% 350
Three Pointers B+ 92% 21 B+ 0.2% 21
Total B- 60% 86 C 5.7% 200


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 222 C- 60% 243 +0.2 188
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 151 C 38% 161 +0.2 208
Three Pointers 41% 157 C 34% 159 +0.0 185
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.1 134 C +0.5 202
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 191
Second Chance B- 27.7% 81 C 1.04 205 C+ 0.29 111
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.1% 130
Other Turnovers F 4.8% 363
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 283
Freethrows C- 0.33 263 B- 71% 100 C- 0.23 235
Total Defense C +0.0 171

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 326 D 7.8% 309
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 244 C- 3.9% 223
Three Pointers C 84% 169 D+ 0.5% 255
Total D+ 59% 271 D 4.0% 313

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.1 15 17.4 197
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 122 0.18 195
Consistency 0.11 67 0.14 296
Improvement +0.1 176 +1.8 91

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 159 150 130
Results Rating Rank 170 159 111
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 14% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round10% 14% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 38 - 38 - 6
Quad 412 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 221 @Ohio W 89 - 85 56% -2  24% 1 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 C- A+ F D+ -3 F A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 100 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 26% -16  0% 1 - 1 F+ -17 F+ -9 F D+ D D- -7 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 204 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 52% -7  15% 2 - 1 C +2 C +0 D- B+ D- C+ +1 D+ A- D
 Wed, Nov 19 31 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 7% -7  4% 2 - 2 C+ +5 B +7 C A- C+ C- -3 D+ D+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 39 @SMU L 69 - 100 8% -15  6% 2 - 3 D- -15 F -11 D- A+ F C+ +0 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 192 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 72% +7  86% 3 - 3 B- +6 D- -7 D+ D F A+ +12 A A A-
 Fri, Nov 28 131 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 58% -1  43% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C- -1 D B- A B +4 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 180 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 70% +10  78% 5 - 3 A- +16 B +7 B+ D+ D A- +8 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 72% +8  97% 6 - 3 B- +7 A- +10 C+ A- C+ C- -3 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 222 @Rice L 76 - 77 56% +7  97% 6 - 4 C -2 C -0 B- D C C -1 C B F
 Wed, Dec 17 232 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 58% +8  91% 7 - 4 1 - 0 A +18 A +12 A A+ F B+ +6 B+ C+ F+
 Sat, Dec 20 225 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 57% +3  60% 8 - 4 2 - 0 B- +6 A+ +17 F+ A+ A F -11 F D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 207 James Madison L 74 - 78 73% +2  65% 8 - 5 2 - 1 D -9 D -6 D D B- D+ -3 F A- A-
 Wed, Jan 7 150 Troy W 86 - 74 64% +10  86% 9 - 5 3 - 1 B +9 C+ +3 B- A- F B+ +6 C A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 232 Texas St. W 83 - 82 78% +5  94% 10 - 5 4 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 F C F+ D+ -4 C- F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 186 @South Alabama L 87 - 91 OT 49% -0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 2 C- -3 C +0 C- B- F C- -3 C B F
 Sat, Jan 17 150 @Troy L 74 - 99 41% -9  16% 10 - 7 4 - 3 F -22 C+ +3 F+ A- B+ F -26 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 260 @Georgia Southern W 85 - 68 64% +9  88% 11 - 7 5 - 3 B+ +14 C +1 A- F F A+ +12 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 305 @Georgia St. L 81 - 82 73% +3  64% 11 - 8 5 - 4 D+ -7 B+ +8 B+ C F F -15 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 244 Old Dominion L 71 - 75 79% -5  1% 11 - 9 5 - 5 D- -12 F -11 D D F C -1 C+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 189 Marshall L 61 - 70 71% -4  11% 11 - 10 5 - 6 D- -14 F -14 F D D C -1 B- C B-
 Wed, Feb 4 228 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 57% +0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -3 C D+ F B+ +6 C+ D A+
 Sat, Feb 7 165 Bowling Green W 91 - 54 67% +21  98% 13 - 10 A+ +33 B+ +9 A+ A C+ A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 354 Louisiana Monroe W 103 - 70 95% +15  99% 14 - 10 7 - 6 A- +16 A +12 B A C+ B- +2 C+ C+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 186 South Alabama L 88 - 92 OT 71% +5  74% 14 - 11 7 - 7 D -9 B- +4 C A- F F -12 B- F F
 Thu, Feb 19 297 @Louisiana W 79 - 62 72% +1  53% 15 - 11 8 - 7 B+ +12 B- +4 B+ B+ F A- +8 B+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 94 87% +6  89% 16 - 11 9 - 7 C- -3 B+ +9 C+ C C F -13 F F B
 Tue, Feb 24 225 Southern Miss W 89 - 84 77% +3  74% 17 - 11 10 - 7 C- -2 C+ +3 F A+ F D -5 F+ D- D
 Fri, Feb 27 297 Louisiana W 81 - 58 87% +14  98% 18 - 11 11 - 7 B+ +12 D -4 D+ D+ B A+ +15 A+ B+ F
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 +1 C+ +1 C- C- B- C +0 D+ C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D D+ C- 38% 29% 46% B- C- B+ C B D- B- C+ B- C C- C C C 37% 21% 41% C+ C B- C C+ D+ C- B- C-
1.10 59% 34% 32% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.0 .38 20% .33 74% .25 1.09 60% 38% 34% +1 0 1.03 28% 1.0 .29 15% .33 71% .24
Nov
3		 Ohio B F A+ C D+ 42% 4% 54% A- C- A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F C F+ 41% 17% 42% D- F A A+ A+ D D+ B- C-
1.18 45% 100% 35% -2 +2 1.02 42% 1.6 .68 24% .49 89% .44 1.13 63% 70% 32% +6 +1 1.15 20% 0.6 .11 13% .34 68% .23
Nov
7		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F F+ F F 41% 13% 46% B F D+ C D+ D A+ B+ A+ D- A- F A- D 27% 29% 44% B D+ F F F A+ F A+ C-
0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43 1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17
Nov
11		 Missouri St. C B A F D+ 19% 43% 38% F D- B B+ B+ D- A B+ A+ C+ F D+ B D 31% 31% 38% B D+ A+ F A- D F F+ F
1.08 70% 48% 25% +1 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36 1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40
Nov
19		 St. Mary's B D D+ D- D+ 47% 10% 43% A C A+ C- A- C+ C- A+ C+ C- C A+ F D+ 51% 19% 30% D- D+ D+ C- D+ B+ F B+ F
1.04 48% 33% 28% -9 +2 0.88 37% 0.9 .33 15% .22 85% .19 1.23 59% 13% 54% +5 +1 1.14 41% 1.2 .47 19% .59 76% .45
Nov
21		 SMU F A- A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% C+ D- A+ B- A+ F A- D+ B C+ F F D+ F 41% 27% 32% C F+ A- A+ A+ F A A+ A+
0.86 67% 50% 17% -8 -1 0.86 54% 1.0 .54 40% .33 69% .23 1.25 81% 56% 38% +16 -1 1.33 31% 0.2 .05 10% .22 63% .14
Nov
24		 Jacksonville St. D- D F C+ D 39% 8% 53% B D+ D- C- D F A+ C+ A+ A+ B+ F A+ A 38% 16% 46% B+ A D+ A+ A A- F B- F
1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40 0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33
Nov
28		 North Dakota St. C- D- F C+ F+ 37% 10% 53% B+ D C A- B- A A- A+ A+ B A+ C F C+ 34% 23% 43% C C+ A A+ A+ C- F A F
1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30 1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30
Dec
2		 Texas Arlington B A+ C+ F B+ 40% 28% 32% C B+ A F D+ D A+ C+ A+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ 45% 27% 29% B A+ C- F D- F+ F A+ D+
1.14 76% 40% 24% +3 -1 1.06 39% 0.7 .28 19% .50 72% .36 0.87 50% 23% 7% -19 0 0.63 36% 1.1 .40 17% .43 62% .26
Dec
6		 Arkansas Little Rock A- A+ F C- C+ 36% 7% 57% B- C+ C+ A A- C+ F A+ F+ C- F C F F 27% 38% 35% B+ F A+ F A+ F D A C-
1.26 80% 25% 34% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.2 .44 17% .15 100% .15 1.09 73% 33% 53% +12 -3 1.20 9% 1.3 .13 13% .27 59% .16
Dec
13		 Rice C A+ C+ F B- 37% 33% 31% C- B- C+ F D C C F D- C B A+ F C 35% 25% 40% D- C A- C B F F+ B+ D
1.10 83% 38% 27% +6 -2 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 16% .33 63% .21 1.12 53% 14% 45% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 10% .37 65% .24
Dec
17		 Texas St. A B+ F A+ A 46% 13% 41% B- A A+ A+ A+ F B B- B+ B+ A- C+ A- A- 53% 28% 19% D- B+ A F C+ F+ C- F D
1.23 67% 0% 53% +10 +1 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28 0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24
Dec
20		 Southern Miss A+ D+ F C F 43% 16% 41% B- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F F 28% 40% 32% A+ F B F D+ F+ F F F
1.30 52% 13% 35% -6 +1 0.92 43% 1.6 .70 13% .53 82% .43 1.20 71% 35% 44% +7 -3 1.10 28% 1.3 .34 15% .44 93% .41
Jan
3		 James Madison D A F F D 35% 17% 48% C D A F D B- A F C D+ D- C- F F 45% 23% 32% B- F B+ A A- A- F A F
1.04 68% 11% 27% -6 0 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 11% .43 59% .25 1.10 67% 36% 47% +9 0 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 21% .46 62% .29
Jan
7		 Troy C+ F A+ A- B 23% 19% 58% D+ B- B+ B+ A- F A+ B+ A+ B+ F A+ D+ D+ 30% 26% 44% A+ C A+ A+ A+ D C+ A+ B+
1.14 45% 56% 39% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 21% .49 76% .37 0.98 76% 13% 36% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.7 .15 15% .28 61% .17
Jan
10		 Texas St. C- B F F F 43% 13% 44% B- F A+ F C F+ A+ A- A+ D+ F A- A+ D+ 44% 35% 20% C+ C- A F F B- D+ F D-
1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41 1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26
Jan
15		 South Alabama C B D+ D- C- 25% 5% 69% B- C- B+ C- B- F C B+ B- C- D+ F A+ B- 51% 9% 40% F C A F B F F D- F
1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19 1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27
Jan
17		 Troy C+ F B+ B+ F 45% 12% 43% B+ F+ C+ A+ A- B+ A+ F C+ F F F D+ F 43% 2% 55% F+ F F F F F D- F F
1.11 32% 50% 38% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.3 .44 13% .38 55% .21 1.48 77% 100% 36% +11 +3 1.29 41% 1.5 .59 10% .35 90% .32
Jan
22		 Georgia Southern C D A+ A+ B+ 47% 8% 45% B A- D+ F F F B- A- B+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 43% 6% 51% D- A+ F+ F+ F C+ F A D
1.14 54% 75% 43% +7 +2 1.22 31% 0.7 .22 23% .40 83% .33 0.91 52% 0% 11% -22 +2 0.62 33% 1.3 .42 16% .42 65% .27
Jan
24		 Georgia St. B+ C A+ C+ B 51% 6% 43% A B+ B+ F+ C F B+ A+ A+ F A+ F F F 20% 26% 54% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F
1.20 58% 100% 35% +5 +3 1.17 41% 0.8 .34 21% .36 89% .32 1.22 40% 62% 44% +11 -2 1.20 13% 0.5 .07 10% .37 91% .33
Jan
28		 Old Dominion F A- F D+ D 32% 19% 49% C- D D+ D D F D- F F C C D+ B- C 32% 31% 37% B- C+ A+ F B- F+ A- D- B+
0.98 71% 10% 31% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 21% .30 65% .19 1.04 58% 39% 32% -1 -2 0.97 14% 1.8 .25 12% .22 79% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Marshall F B+ F F F 32% 11% 57% B+ F A- F D D A+ F A- C C B F C 27% 38% 35% A B- D- B+ C B- D F D-
0.96 67% 20% 19% -13 +1 0.79 42% 0.7 .28 19% .49 64% .31 1.10 62% 33% 41% +3 -3 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 19% .29 80% .23
Feb
4		 Coastal Carolina D+ F F+ A+ C 33% 27% 41% C+ C A F D+ F A C- A- B+ B F A- B- 28% 16% 56% F+ C+ D D+ D A+ D- A C-
1.00 38% 31% 45% -2 -1 0.96 38% 0.7 .25 20% .37 71% .27 0.94 50% 50% 29% -5 0 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 65% .20
Feb
7		 Bowling Green B+ A+ F A+ A+ 37% 8% 56% B A+ A+ C+ A C+ C+ F D- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C D-
1.21 74% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.1 .44 17% .34 57% .19 0.72 59% 25% 10% -16 0 0.69 23% 0.1 .03 23% .38 73% .27
Feb
11		 Louisiana Monroe A B A+ B+ B- 47% 5% 48% A- B A+ D+ A C+ C F F+ B- A+ B- D C 29% 23% 48% B C+ C+ C+ C+ C- F A+ D+
1.39 67% 67% 39% +9 +3 1.26 51% 1.1 .56 15% .25 50% .13 0.95 40% 33% 36% -5 -1 0.90 23% 1.0 .23 16% .42 62% .26
Feb
14		 South Alabama B- F D+ B C+ 14% 12% 75% D C A+ D- A- F A+ F A+ F A A+ F C 21% 29% 50% A+ B- D- F F F D- F F
1.15 43% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 47% 1.0 .44 24% .51 67% .34 1.21 46% 17% 42% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.5 .41 7% .36 77% .28
Feb
19		 Louisiana B- A A+ F B+ 50% 17% 33% C+ B+ A+ D- B+ F A+ C- A+ A- A+ F+ A- A- 27% 37% 36% B- B+ C A+ A F A- D B+
1.15 71% 86% 21% +8 +1 1.21 45% 0.9 .41 26% .55 71% .39 0.90 31% 45% 29% -7 -3 0.81 27% 0.4 .12 4% .17 73% .12
Feb
21		 Louisiana Monroe B+ F+ A- A+ C+ 32% 8% 60% C+ C+ C C C C A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F+ F 40% 19% 40% D+ F F F F B F C F
1.31 53% 50% 44% +8 +1 1.21 35% 1.2 .41 15% .47 84% .40 1.21 76% 20% 38% +6 0 1.15 39% 1.2 .48 19% .46 72% .33
Feb
24		 Southern Miss C+ B F F F 43% 22% 35% C- F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+ D C+ F+ D- D- 55% 20% 25% F F+ D- D+ D- D B A+ A+
1.13 62% 9% 18% -13 0 0.76 45% 1.4 .64 23% .76 78% .59 1.06 57% 45% 36% +1 +1 1.07 36% 1.1 .39 16% .32 52% .17
Feb
27		 Louisiana D B+ F D D 38% 7% 55% B- D+ F A+ D+ B C F F A+ A+ B+ A- A+ 35% 28% 37% F+ A+ A+ C- B+ F F A+ C-
1.07 67% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.04 21% 1.3 .28 16% .38 50% .19 0.77 35% 31% 29% -13 -1 0.74 18% 0.9 .16 12% .35 52% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 10.4% 10.4% 13.6 0.4 3.9 5.5 0.6 89.6
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 13.6 89.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.4% 100.0% 13.6 3.9 37.3 52.6 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.9%
Lose Out 25.9%