Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
136 Arkansas St. 27.2%   14   8 - 4 2 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 4 +1.7      +2.3 114 -0.5 182 78.4 16 +5.0 99 +14.2 1
139 Troy 25.0%   6 - 5 1 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +1.5      +0.3 160 +1.2 131 68.7 211 +3.7 119 +12.0 2
161 Marshall 13.0%   7 - 5 0 - 1 18 - 11 11 - 7 -0.1      -0.2 170 0.0 161 71.5 125 +2.1 141 -10.7 12
190 South Alabama 7.4%   8 - 4 1 - 1 17 - 11 10 - 8 -1.9      -1.8 216 -0.2 169 63.8 322 +1.5 149 -7.1 10
198 James Madison 4.7%   6 - 6 0 - 2 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2.4      +1.5 125 -3.9 305 64.6 310 -2.2 196 -15.6 13
207 Southern Miss 5.1%   5 - 6 1 - 1 14 - 14 10 - 8 -3.0      -1.4 203 -1.6 219 68.9 200 -2.5 203 -6.6 9
213 Georgia Southern 5.7%   8 - 5 2 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3.4      +0.4 153 -3.8 302 75.2 44 -1.4 184 +7.2 3
217 Old Dominion 3.9%   3 - 9 1 - 1 11 - 18 9 - 9 -3.5      -1.7 215 -1.8 229 70.7 146 -7.0 273 -6.3 8
228 Appalachian St. 2.7%   6 - 6 1 - 1 14 - 14 9 - 9 -4.1      -4.1 283 0.0 159 60.1 365 -3.2 218 -10.2 11
230 Coastal Carolina 3.3%   7 - 6 1 - 1 15 - 14 9 - 9 -4.2      -5.2 315 +1.0 133 72.8 85 -0.2 164 -0.8 5
255 Texas St. 1.6%   6 - 6 1 - 1 13 - 15 8 - 10 -5.2      -4.2 286 -1.0 203 65.5 284 -4.5 241 -3.1 6
314 Louisiana 0.2%   2 - 11 1 - 1 8 - 22 6 - 12 -8.9      -8.3 352 -0.7 189 62.0 351 -13.1 339 -6.0 7
330 Georgia St. 0.1%   2 - 10 1 - 1 7 - 21 6 - 12 -10.1      -7.1 341 -3.1 279 71.8 115 -9.6 312 -0.7 4
359 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 10 0 - 2 3 - 25 2 - 16 -14.9      -7.1 340 -7.8 354 72.7 90 -22.7 364 -24.6 14




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 161 Marshall 63 139 Troy 70   
Sat, Dec 20 213 Georgia Southern 96 198 James Madison 92   
Sat, Dec 20 230 Coastal Carolina 76 217 Old Dominion 74   
Sat, Dec 20 136 Arkansas St. 93 207 Southern Miss 86   
Sat, Dec 20 190 South Alabama 65 255 Texas St. 67   
Sat, Dec 20 228 Appalachian St. 63 330 Georgia St. 70   
Sat, Dec 20 314 Louisiana 76 359 Louisiana Monroe 62   
Mon, Dec 22 230 Coastal Carolina 68 188 Saint Joseph's 62   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 28 94 Maryland 82 217 Old Dominion 70 87%   
Sun, Dec 28 314 Louisiana 63 243 Norfolk St. 64 54%   
Sun, Dec 28 58 Kansas St. 96 359 Louisiana Monroe 69 99%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 2.2 48.6 21.8 11.8 7.0 4.3 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Troy 2.7 37.6 23.2 13.3 8.8 5.7 4.1 2.7 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Marshall 4.6 11.4 16.7 15.7 12.9 10.3 8.2 6.8 5.7 4.4 3.4 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.1
South Alabama 5.6 6.8 10.0 11.2 12.1 12.0 10.6 9.8 8.1 6.8 5.3 3.8 2.4 1.0 0.1
James Madison 7.1 2.3 5.3 7.4 9.1 9.6 10.2 10.2 10.2 9.4 9.2 7.9 5.5 3.4 0.3
Southern Miss 6.4 4.2 7.6 9.4 10.4 10.7 11.0 10.3 9.6 8.0 7.2 5.7 3.8 1.8 0.3
Georgia Southern 5.6 7.1 11.0 11.8 11.8 10.8 10.2 9.0 8.0 6.8 5.6 4.1 2.6 1.2 0.1
Old Dominion 6.9 2.8 6.0 7.9 9.4 9.9 10.5 10.5 10.3 9.6 8.5 7.0 4.9 2.5 0.3
Appalachian St. 7.4 1.8 4.7 6.6 8.0 8.6 9.8 9.8 10.3 10.4 10.3 8.7 6.8 3.7 0.5
Coastal Carolina 6.6 3.5 7.0 9.0 9.9 10.5 10.5 10.1 9.4 8.8 7.6 6.4 4.4 2.6 0.3
Texas St. 8.0 1.5 3.1 4.7 6.3 7.6 9.0 9.4 10.6 11.4 11.1 10.7 8.7 4.7 1.0
Louisiana 10.4 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.5 5.0 6.4 9.0 11.9 15.8 20.2 18.4 3.7
Georgia St. 11.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.5 4.9 6.6 9.4 13.5 20.1 28.4 7.4
Louisiana Monroe 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.4 6.0 17.2 72.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.9 8.7 12.9 16.9 18.4 16.4 11.3 5.3 1.5
Troy 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.0 7.4 11.1 14.6 16.8 16.5 13.1 8.2 3.8 0.9
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.1 7.3 10.9 13.9 16.2 16.0 12.7 8.6 4.6 1.7 0.3
South Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.9 7.4 10.9 14.9 16.9 16.2 12.2 8.5 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1
James Madison 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.4 8.2 11.8 14.7 16.5 15.0 12.1 8.0 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.1
Southern Miss 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.9 9.3 13.4 16.1 16.1 13.8 10.1 6.4 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
Georgia Southern 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 7.3 11.1 14.3 15.6 15.0 12.9 8.4 5.0 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Old Dominion 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.7 7.2 11.3 15.2 16.4 15.5 12.5 8.4 4.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.4 8.9 13.3 15.8 16.2 13.9 10.5 6.8 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.5 6.6 10.0 13.8 15.8 15.6 13.2 9.6 5.6 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
Texas St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 7.0 11.3 15.0 16.4 15.7 12.4 8.9 4.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 6 - 12 0.3 2.1 6.3 11.8 16.8 18.3 16.2 12.5 7.9 4.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 6 - 12 1.4 5.0 10.9 15.8 17.6 16.8 13.1 9.1 5.5 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 2 - 16 10.8 22.5 24.6 19.2 12.0 6.5 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 48.6% 34.8 10.5 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Troy 37.6% 24.9 9.5 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Marshall 11.4% 5.6 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 6.8% 3.0 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
James Madison 2.3% 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 4.2% 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 7.1% 3.3 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 2.8% 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 1.8% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 3.5% 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 1.5% 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 27.2% 27.2% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.3 2.5 10.2 10.9 3.2 0.1 72.8 0.0%
Troy 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.6 11.7 6.9 1.2 0.0 75.0 0.0%
Marshall 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 3.9 5.8 2.4 0.2 87.1 0.0%
South Alabama 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.4 0.2 92.6 0.0%
James Madison 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.6 0.3 95.3 0.0%
Southern Miss 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 0.5 94.9 0.0%
Georgia Southern 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 0.7 94.3 0.0%
Old Dominion 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 1.6 96.1 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.4 97.3 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.3 96.7 0.0%
Texas St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 98.4 0.0%
Louisiana 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 27.2% 0.0% 27.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 13.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 7.4% 0.0% 7.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 4.7% 0.0% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 5.1% 0.1% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 5.7% 0.1% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 3.9% 0.9% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.7% 0.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 3.3% 0.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 99.5
2nd Round 5.0% 0.0 95.0 5.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0