Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
146 Arkansas St. 10.4%   18 - 11 11 - 7 +1.0      +1.0 138 0.0 171 78.6 9 +0.4 151 -2.1 7
150 Troy 34.1%   14   18 - 11 12 - 6 +0.4      +0.7 146 -0.3 183 64.7 282 +1.2 141 -0.5 1
172 Appalachian St. 14.1%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -1.0      -2.2 233 +1.2 135 60.1 358 -1.5 185 -1.8 6
186 South Alabama 6.3%   19 - 10 11 - 7 -1.8      -1.9 222 +0.2 164 63.1 326 +0.4 152 -1.3 4
189 Marshall 22.3%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -1.9      +2.5 107 -4.4 303 72.3 82 -0.2 161 -1.2 3
207 James Madison 2.6%   16 - 14 9 - 9 -2.4      -0.4 174 -2.0 232 64.3 292 -2.3 201 -3.7 8
225 Southern Miss 1.4%   14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.7      -4.3 284 +0.6 152 71.3 105 -3.2 220 -4.0 9
228 Coastal Carolina 6.2%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -3.8      -4.8 300 +1.0 140 67.7 200 -0.8 172 -1.7 5
232 Texas St. 2.2%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -4.0      -3.7 268 -0.3 180 65.9 253 -2.3 202 -1.0 2
244 Old Dominion 0.0%   11 - 20 7 - 11 -4.6      -2.1 231 -2.5 251 71.4 103 -6.3 264 -6.8 13
260 Georgia Southern 0.4%   14 - 15 8 - 10 -5.6      -1.3 197 -4.4 301 75.2 29 -4.7 241 -5.2 10
297 Louisiana 0.0%   11 - 21 7 - 11 -8.0      -5.5 313 -2.5 252 60.4 355 -7.8 292 -6.6 12
305 Georgia St. 0.0%   8 - 22 7 - 11 -8.5      -6.2 325 -2.4 246 69.8 140 -9.1 309 -6.2 11
354 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 28 1 - 17 -14.4      -5.4 308 -9.0 361 73.9 44 -20.7 360 -19.6 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Mar 3 305 Georgia St. 75 297 Louisiana 84   
Tue, Mar 3 244 Old Dominion 87 354 Louisiana Monroe 80   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Mar 4 260 Georgia Southern 81 244 Old Dominion 82 54%   
Wed, Mar 4 207 James Madison 70 297 Louisiana 64 70%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 1.0 100.0
Texas St. 2.0 100.0
South Alabama 2.0 100.0
Coastal Carolina 2.0 100.0
Arkansas St. 2.0 100.0
Appalachian St. 2.0 100.0
Marshall 2.0 100.0
Southern Miss 8.0 100.0
James Madison 8.0 100.0
Georgia Southern 10.0 100.0
Louisiana 11.0 100.0
Old Dominion 11.0 100.0
Georgia St. 11.0 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 12 - 6 18 - 11 100.0
Texas St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
South Alabama 11 - 7 19 - 10 100.0
Coastal Carolina 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 18 - 11 100.0
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Marshall 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 14 - 15 100.0
James Madison 9 - 9 17 - 14 100.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 14 - 16 100.0
Louisiana 7 - 11 11 - 22 100.0
Old Dominion 7 - 11 12 - 20 100.0
Georgia St. 7 - 11 8 - 22 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 28 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 100.0% 100.0
Texas St.
South Alabama
Coastal Carolina
Arkansas St.
Appalachian St.
Marshall
Southern Miss
James Madison
Georgia Southern
Louisiana
Old Dominion
Georgia St.
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.4 3.9 5.5 0.6 89.6 0.0%
Troy 34.1% 34.1% 0.0% 14   0.5 15.2 16.9 1.6 0.0 65.9 0.0%
Appalachian St. 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.7 6.6 6.3 0.5 85.9 0.0%
South Alabama 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.6 3.7 2.0 0.1 93.7 0.0%
Marshall 22.3% 22.3% 0.0% 0.9 9.3 11.1 1.0 77.7 0.0%
James Madison 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.1 97.4 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 0.2 98.6 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 3.9 0.7 93.8 0.0%
Texas St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.3 1.2 0.7 97.8 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2 0.2 99.6 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.8
2nd Round 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 10.4% 0.0% 10.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 34.1% 0.0% 34.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 14.1% 0.0% 14.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 22.3% 0.1% 22.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 6.2% 0.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 2.2% 0.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%