Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.3 161
Expected Predictive Rating +0.3 157
Pace 60.1 359
Improvement +8.4 2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #235 D+ C- C+ D+ C+
Defense C+ #106 B- C+ D B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 221 59% 144 -0.5 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 253 35% 275 -1.8 274
Three Pointers 46% 78 30% 318 -0.1 177
1st FG Attempt 0.97 248 -2.4 248
Second Chance 29.6% 210 0.99 237 0.29 217
Turnovers 15.8% 115
Freethrows 0.31 177 63% 365 0.20 276
Total Offense -2.5 235

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 229 53% 59 +2.7 91
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 230 36% 127 +1.1 101
Three Pointers 44% 79 32% 109 -0.7 217
1st FG Attempt 0.96 80 +3.1 75
Second Chance 30.5% 181 0.95 72 0.29 108
Turnovers 14.4% 324
Freethrows 0.27 76 70% 77 0.19 69
Total Defense +2.2 106

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 143 +0.1 192
Shot Type Accuracy -2.7 273 -3.0 65
Possession Length 19.6 355 17.6 233
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 277 0.15 118
Improvement +2.5 #62 +5.9 #4

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20% 24% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 44% 62% 27%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round20% 24% 17%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 34 - 55 - 7
Quad 414 - 519 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 296 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 67% -12  0% 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -8 F C B F -14 F C C+
 Sun, Nov 9 339 NC Central W 76 - 54 90% +16  97% 1 - 1 B- +7 C -0 F A+ A+ A- +10 A B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 39 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 6% -6  42% 1 - 2 D+ -5 F -10 D- B B C+ +2 A+ D F
 Sun, Nov 16 240 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 55% +5  85% 2 - 2 B- +7 B +7 A C F C -0 D- C+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 168 Charlotte W 65 - 63 62% -2  27% 3 - 2 C -2 C +1 B- C+ C- C- -2 A F C-
 Mon, Nov 24 215 Elon L 53 - 88 71% -17  1% 3 - 3 F -41 F -21 F F C+ F -25 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 171 @Mercer L 67 - 75 40% +3  72% 3 - 4 D+ -6 C +0 F+ B A D -7 B- F D+
 Sun, Nov 30 211 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 48% -8  0% 3 - 5 D- -12 F -15 F D+ C+ B- +2 B+ F B
 Thu, Dec 11 252 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 57% +9  96% 4 - 5 B +11 D+ -3 C+ B F A+ +15 A B D-
 Sun, Dec 14 92 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 29% +2  69% 5 - 5 B+ +13 B- +4 A- F A+ A- +8 A- A+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 238 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 75% +4  53% 6 - 5 1 - 0 B +11 D -5 A F F A+ +17 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Dec 20 276 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 81% -4  16% 6 - 6 1 - 1 F+ -16 F -13 D F B+ C- -3 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 253 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 57% +13  95% 7 - 6 2 - 1 B- +6 A- +9 C A+ D C- -3 F A- F+
 Sat, Jan 3 164 @Marshall L 81 - 88 39% -8  3% 7 - 7 2 - 2 C- -4 B +6 B- B B- F+ -10 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 276 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 62% -2  10% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C -1 F -17 F C- D- A+ +16 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 238 @Coastal Carolina L 62 - 67 54% +5  78% 8 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -6 C +1 F+ B+ A+ D- -8 F C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 222 James Madison W 80 - 65 71% +11  99% 9 - 8 4 - 3 B +9 A+ +15 A+ A+ B D+ -4 A C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 253 Old Dominion L 73 - 75 77% -10  0% 9 - 9 4 - 4 D -10 C- -0 D+ B+ A- F+ -10 F C+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 290 Louisiana W 72 - 58 83% +1  44% 10 - 9 5 - 4 C+ +4 B +6 A+ C- F C +0 A D- F
 Fri, Jan 23 356 Louisiana Monroe W 59 - 43 94% +8  80% 11 - 9 6 - 4 C- -2 F -25 F F C A+ +23 A+ A C-
 Thu, Jan 29 241 @Southern Miss W 70 - 63 55% +2  68% 12 - 9 7 - 4 B- +5 C- -1 D+ F A- B+ +7 B B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 135 @Troy W 66 - 44 31% +9  90% 13 - 9 8 - 4 A+ +27 B- +5 B+ F D- A+ +26 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 191 South Alabama W 65 - 57 68% +3  79% 14 - 9 9 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +2 D C+ A+ B- +3 C A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 231 Eastern Michigan W 65 - 60 73% +3  78% 15 - 9 C- -2 D- -7 D+ F A+ B +5 A+ F F
 Wed, Feb 11 274 @Georgia Southern W 81 - 65 62% +8  98% 16 - 9 10 - 4 B+ +13 B +7 C C- A- B+ +7 C A+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 222 @James Madison L 66 - 67 49%
 Thu, Feb 19 164 Marshall W 71 - 68 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 274 Georgia Southern W 76 - 67 80%
 Fri, Feb 27 234 @Texas St. W 65 - 64 53%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 6 +0 C- -2 D+ C- C+ C+ +2 B- C+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D+ D D+ 37% 17% 46% C+ D+ C- C- C- C+ C F D+ C+ B C+ C+ B 37% 19% 44% C B- C B- C+ D B- B- B-
1.05 59% 35% 30% -3 0 0.97 30% 1.0 .29 16% .31 63% .20 1.06 53% 36% 32% -3 0 0.96 31% 0.9 .29 14% .27 70% .22
Nov
3		 Central Michigan F+ F F F+ F 33% 17% 50% D+ F C C- C B A+ F C F D F F F 49% 16% 35% F F F A+ C C+ D F F
1.02 38% 25% 29% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 14% .52 48% .25 1.26 63% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.27 45% 0.7 .31 18% .32 82% .26
Nov
9		 NC Central C C- F F F 33% 15% 52% C F D A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ 44% 13% 44% F A A+ D B+ C- D- F F
1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37 0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34
Nov
11		 Ohio St. F F F D+ F+ 24% 29% 47% C- D- F+ A+ B B F F F C+ D A- A A+ 21% 23% 55% B A+ B- F D F F B- F
0.86 42% 29% 30% -9 -2 0.80 21% 1.7 .35 15% .15 63% .10 1.22 70% 36% 27% -4 -2 0.91 33% 1.3 .44 7% .56 75% .42
Nov
16		 Dartmouth B A- A+ C- A 55% 14% 31% B+ A B F+ C F A C- A- C B A+ F D- 29% 7% 64% D- D- C B- C+ B F C- F
1.18 68% 57% 31% +7 +2 1.20 35% 0.8 .29 18% .36 71% .25 1.07 50% 0% 44% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.0 .26 22% .53 73% .39
Nov
21		 Charlotte C C- B B B- 35% 18% 48% C+ B- C B C+ C- A+ D- A+ C- B A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% F+ A F D+ F C- A+ A A+
1.15 57% 43% 37% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.2 .37 16% .48 65% .32 1.11 55% 25% 26% -8 +2 0.91 42% 1.0 .42 18% .24 64% .15
Nov
24		 Elon F C- F F F 30% 9% 61% B F F D- F C+ A+ F C F D+ F A+ B- 37% 16% 47% A- B F F F F C F D
0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21 1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25
Nov
26		 Mercer C A+ D+ F F+ 38% 28% 34% D F+ B- B B A C- F F+ D A+ C+ F C+ 17% 30% 53% A+ B- F+ D- F D+ D+ F D-
1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13 1.21 25% 36% 40% -1 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30
Nov
30		 UNC Asheville F A+ D F D- 21% 30% 49% F F F A D+ C+ D F F B- D- F A+ A- 29% 29% 41% D- B+ F+ F F B F F F
0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13 1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43
Dec
11		 East Carolina D+ A C- F C 46% 17% 38% B+ C+ A- D+ B F C- F+ D A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 22% 35% D A C+ A- B D- A+ A+ A+
1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16 0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11
Dec
14		 High Point B- F A+ A+ A- 36% 13% 51% C+ A- F D F A+ A+ C+ A A- B A A+ 37% 0% 63% F+ A- D+ A+ A+ D- D A+ B+
1.14 42% 57% 48% +8 +1 1.19 21% 1.0 .21 16% .41 73% .30 1.03 55% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 0.5 .16 11% .40 56% .22
Dec
18		 Coastal Carolina D C+ C+ A+ A- 40% 27% 33% B A D- F F F A+ F A- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% D A+ C- A- B- D+ F+ A+ B-
1.03 56% 42% 47% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.7 .16 18% .42 64% .26 0.75 41% 42% 18% -15 -1 0.71 27% 0.8 .20 14% .32 50% .16
Dec
20		 Georgia St. F B- F C- D- 42% 16% 42% C+ D F F F B+ A+ F B- C- F B D- F 30% 28% 41% C F C+ A+ A+ A- F+ B D
0.93 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 19% 0.4 .08 13% .41 58% .24 1.04 79% 31% 37% +6 -2 1.11 26% 0.5 .13 21% .37 75% .28
Dec
31		 Old Dominion A- A- D- F C+ 46% 22% 33% C C A+ A+ A+ D A+ F B+ C- F A+ F F 33% 21% 46% D+ F C A+ A- F+ F A+ C-
1.22 71% 30% 27% +1 0 1.04 42% 1.5 .65 17% .51 61% .31 1.10 71% 18% 42% +5 0 1.12 25% 0.7 .18 12% .38 59% .22
Jan
3		 Marshall B A- A D- B 33% 27% 41% C- B- C A B B- A+ F B F+ B- F F F 34% 26% 40% C- F A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F
1.15 69% 46% 30% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.2 .38 16% .52 55% .29 1.25 59% 46% 55% +15 -1 1.30 21% 0.8 .18 11% .40 72% .29
Jan
8		 Georgia St. F D- F F F 40% 13% 47% B- F B+ F C- D- F F F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 30% 44% 26% A+ A+ A F C- F A- A+ A+
0.84 50% 0% 24% -15 +1 0.73 40% 0.8 .31 19% .20 60% .12 0.81 33% 32% 15% -17 -4 0.60 20% 1.5 .30 11% .24 62% .15
Jan
10		 Coastal Carolina C D+ F F+ F 29% 29% 43% C F+ B B B+ A+ C+ B+ B D- F B+ F F 35% 28% 37% C- F C+ D+ C D- B A+ A
1.08 50% 29% 29% -8 -2 0.82 32% 1.2 .38 7% .32 76% .24 1.16 69% 31% 47% +9 -1 1.17 24% 1.0 .24 12% .22 55% .12
Jan
15		 James Madison A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ A- A+ A+ B F F F D+ A+ A+ F A+ 35% 13% 52% C- A F+ B+ C- F C C+ C
1.36 58% 50% 45% +10 +2 1.26 38% 1.3 .50 10% .15 63% .09 1.11 24% 17% 40% -10 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .33 10% .30 69% .21
Jan
17		 Old Dominion C- B- F F D 53% 10% 37% A D+ D+ A+ B+ A- A F C F+ D F F F 24% 27% 49% B F A F C+ C- F A+ D-
1.12 65% 20% 22% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.5 .41 11% .43 60% .26 1.16 64% 50% 45% +13 -2 1.24 18% 1.4 .25 15% .42 61% .26
Jan
22		 Louisiana B C+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 13% 63% D A+ B+ F C- F D F F C D+ B A+ A 24% 30% 46% C A B F D- F B+ F C+
1.22 60% 80% 48% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .31 22% .32 60% .19 0.98 58% 33% 22% -10 -2 0.78 22% 1.4 .30 10% .17 89% .15
Jan
23		 Louisiana Monroe F C+ A+ F F 39% 5% 56% B F D+ F F C F A F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 9% 43% F A+ B A+ A C- C+ C+ C+
0.85 64% 67% 19% -9 +2 0.88 34% 0.1 .04 16% .15 78% .12 0.62 20% 20% 22% -28 +2 0.51 20% 0.5 .10 17% .30 71% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Southern Miss C- F F A+ D 48% 15% 37% B D+ D F F A- A+ A- A+ B+ B C+ A+ B 39% 35% 27% C+ B D- A+ B+ C F A- F+
1.05 41% 29% 47% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.5 .11 14% .50 76% .38 0.95 53% 35% 23% -7 -2 0.84 36% 0.7 .24 18% .48 69% .33
Jan
31		 Troy B- A+ C B- B+ 15% 15% 70% D+ B+ C- F F D- F A+ D- A+ C B A+ A+ 37% 12% 51% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+
1.12 86% 43% 36% +7 -1 1.15 30% 0.7 .20 20% .17 88% .15 0.75 56% 33% 16% -15 +1 0.73 22% 0.5 .11 15% .08 100% .08
Feb
4		 South Alabama C+ C+ A+ F D 18% 4% 78% C D D+ A C+ A+ A+ F A B- C A+ F C- 33% 29% 38% A+ C A- A+ A+ F A- D B
1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23 0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17
Feb
7		 Eastern Michigan D- C- A+ F F+ 56% 10% 33% A D+ B- F F A+ A+ F B B A+ D+ A+ A+ 30% 37% 33% A A+ B+ F F F A+ A- A+
1.01 56% 60% 19% -7 +3 0.94 32% 0.4 .12 11% .49 54% .26 0.93 44% 40% 17% -12 -3 0.72 23% 1.9 .44 9% .10 67% .07
Feb
11		 Georgia Southern B B- D- D- D+ 49% 7% 44% B+ C C D+ C- A- A+ D A+ B+ B- A+ D C+ 42% 9% 49% D C D A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+
1.22 64% 33% 30% 0 +3 1.07 37% 1.0 .37 15% .50 71% .36 0.98 50% 0% 36% -5 +2 0.95 32% 0.5 .15 18% .17 67% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 5.7 24.5 14.1 44.3 1st
2nd 1.5 19.0 10.4 30.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.7 9.1 0.3 15.2 3rd
4th 0.4 6.1 0.3 6.8 4th
5th 1.1 1.2 2.2 5th
6th 0.6 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 2.2 14.5 34.1 35.2 14.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 14.1    10.2 3.8
13-5 69.6% 24.5    6.9 13.7 3.8 0.2
12-6 16.8% 5.7    0.1 1.2 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 44.3% 44.3 17.2 18.7 6.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 14.1% 27.2% 27.2% 13.6 0.1 1.7 1.8 0.3 10.2
13-5 35.2% 27.3% 27.3% 14.3 0.9 5.3 3.3 0.1 25.6
12-6 34.1% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.7 0.3 28.3
11-7 14.5% 7.7% 7.7% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 13.3
10-8 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 14.2 79.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 13.6 2.6 43.9 47.0 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.0%
Lose Out 0.9%