Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.0 172
Results Rating -1.5 185
Consistency 0.20 357
Pace 60.1 358
Improvement +6.6 15

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 233 D+ C C+ D+ C+
Defense C+ 135 B- B- D- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 251 C+ 59% 129 -1.0 217
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 287 D+ 35% 270 -2.0 278
Three Pointers 47% 51 D- 30% 335 +0.1 177
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 141 D+ -3.1 287
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 272
Second Chance C 30.3% 183 C 1.02 191 C 0.31 175
Opponents' Steals B- 8.3% 72
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 233
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 124
Freethrows C+ 0.32 138 F 63% 365 D+ 0.20 243
Total Offense C- -2.2 233

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 37% 331 B+ 7.4% 27
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 300 C- 5.6% 235
Three Pointers C 84% 191 C 0.9% 195
Total D+ 50% 301 B+ 4.0% 28


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 248 B 54% 68 -2.7 90
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 221 C+ 37% 140 -0.8 125
Three Pointers 44% 84 C+ 33% 152 +1.3 255
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 174 B- -2.1 97
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 115
Second Chance C 29.7% 164 B 0.93 43 B- 0.28 80
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.0% 335
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 237
Turnovers D- 13.9% 337
Freethrows B- 0.27 91 B- 70% 69 B- 0.19 71
Total Defense C+ +1.2 135

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 171 B- 13.5% 80
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 261 D- 1.5% 340
Three Pointers D- 90% 337 D+ 0.5% 267
Total D+ 60% 279 C 5.4% 182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.6 357 17.4 209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 270 0.15 111
Consistency 0.14 321 0.17 360
Improvement +2.9 58 +3.7 31

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 184 173 156
Results Rating Rank 197 180 141
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 24% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round14% 24% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 33 - 64 - 7
Quad 414 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 258 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 56% -12  0% 0 - 1 F -19 D -6 F C B+ F -14 F C C
 Sun, Nov 9 347 NC Central W 76 - 54 91% +16  97% 1 - 1 B- +6 C- -1 F A+ A+ A +9 A A- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 32 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 5% -6  42% 1 - 2 C- -4 F+ -9 D- B B C+ +1 A+ D F
 Sun, Nov 16 267 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 58% +5  85% 2 - 2 B- +5 B +6 A C F C -1 F+ C B+
 Fri, Nov 21 169 Charlotte W 65 - 63 60% -2  27% 3 - 2 C -2 C +1 B- C+ D+ C- -2 A+ F C-
 Mon, Nov 24 242 Elon L 53 - 88 74% -17  1% 3 - 3 F -43 F -21 F F B- F -27 C+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 178 @Mercer L 67 - 75 39% +3  72% 3 - 4 D+ -6 C- -1 F+ B A D -6 B F D
 Sun, Nov 30 247 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 53% -8  0% 3 - 5 D- -14 F -16 F D+ C C+ +1 B F B+
 Thu, Dec 11 233 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 50% +9  96% 4 - 5 B+ +12 D+ -3 C+ B F A+ +16 A+ B+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 94 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 26% +2  69% 5 - 5 B+ +14 B- +4 A- F A+ A +9 A- A+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 228 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 71% +4  53% 6 - 5 1 - 0 B +11 D+ -4 A F F A+ +16 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Dec 20 305 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 84% -4  16% 6 - 6 1 - 1 F -19 F -14 D- F B+ D -5 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 244 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 53% +13  95% 7 - 6 2 - 1 B- +6 B+ +9 C+ A+ D C- -2 F+ A F+
 Sat, Jan 3 189 @Marshall L 81 - 88 42% -8  3% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 C+ B- C+ F+ -8 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 305 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 67% -2  10% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -4 F -17 F C- D- A+ +14 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 228 @Coastal Carolina L 62 - 67 49% +5  78% 8 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -6 C+ +2 F+ B+ A+ F+ -9 F C F+
 Thu, Jan 15 207 James Madison W 80 - 65 67% +11  99% 9 - 8 4 - 3 B +10 A+ +17 A+ A+ B D+ -4 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 244 Old Dominion L 73 - 75 74% -10  0% 9 - 9 4 - 4 D -10 C- -1 D+ B+ A- F+ -9 F B- C-
 Thu, Jan 22 297 Louisiana W 72 - 58 83% +1  44% 10 - 9 5 - 4 C+ +3 B +6 A+ C- F C -0 A D F
 Fri, Jan 23 354 Louisiana Monroe W 59 - 43 93% +8  80% 11 - 9 6 - 4 C -1 F -26 F F C- A+ +25 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 225 @Southern Miss W 70 - 63 49% +2  68% 12 - 9 7 - 4 B- +6 C +0 D+ F A- B+ +6 B+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 150 @Troy W 66 - 44 34% +9  90% 13 - 9 8 - 4 A+ +25 B- +4 B+ F F+ A+ +25 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 186 South Alabama W 65 - 57 64% +3  79% 14 - 9 9 - 4 C+ +3 C +1 D C+ A+ B +4 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 248 Eastern Michigan W 65 - 60 74% +3  78% 15 - 9 C- -3 D -6 D+ F A B- +3 A+ F F
 Wed, Feb 11 260 @Georgia Southern W 81 - 65 56% +8  98% 16 - 9 10 - 4 B+ +13 B +7 C- C A- A- +7 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 207 @James Madison L 58 - 69 44% -6  5% 16 - 10 10 - 5 D -10 F+ -10 F A F+ C- -2 B- B- F
 Thu, Feb 19 189 Marshall L 93 - 94 65% +6  86% 16 - 11 10 - 6 D+ -6 A+ +17 B+ A+ A+ F -23 F C F
 Sat, Feb 21 260 Georgia Southern W 89 - 74 77% +3  70% 17 - 11 11 - 6 B- +6 B +6 B C B- C -0 C- A+ B-
 Fri, Feb 27 232 @Texas St. L 57 - 60 50% +2  67% 17 - 12 11 - 7 C- -4 F+ -9 F C+ D- B +4 D A+ F+
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1 C- -2 C+ D+ C+ C+ +1 D- F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ D+ D- D+ 36% 28% 47% C+ D+ C C C C+ C+ F D+ C+ B C+ C+ B- 37% 19% 44% C B- C B B- D- B- B- B-
1.05 59% 35% 30% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.0 .31 16% .32 63% .20 1.07 54% 37% 33% -2 0 0.98 30% 0.9 .28 14% .27 70% .22
Nov
3		 Central Michigan D F F F+ F 33% 17% 50% D+ F C C C B+ A+ F C+ F D F F F 49% 16% 35% F F F A+ C C D F F
1.02 38% 25% 29% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 14% .52 48% .25 1.26 63% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.27 45% 0.7 .31 18% .32 82% .26
Nov
9		 NC Central C- D+ F F F 33% 15% 52% C- F D A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A A+ A+ A- A+ 44% 13% 44% F A A+ C A- C- F+ F F
1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37 0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34
Nov
11		 Ohio St. F+ F F D+ D- 24% 29% 47% C- D- F+ A+ B B F F F C+ D A- A+ A+ 21% 23% 55% B A+ C+ F D F F C+ F
0.86 42% 29% 30% -9 -2 0.80 21% 1.7 .35 15% .15 63% .10 1.22 70% 36% 27% -4 -2 0.91 33% 1.3 .44 7% .56 75% .42
Nov
16		 Dartmouth B A- A+ D+ A- 55% 14% 31% B+ A B+ F+ C F A- C+ A- C B A+ F D- 29% 7% 64% D- F+ D+ B C B+ F C+ F
1.18 68% 57% 31% +7 +2 1.20 35% 0.8 .29 18% .36 71% .25 1.07 50% 0% 44% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.0 .26 22% .53 73% .39
Nov
21		 Charlotte C C- B+ B B- 35% 18% 48% C+ B- C B C+ D+ A+ D- A+ C- B A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% F+ A+ F D+ F C- A+ A A+
1.15 57% 43% 37% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.2 .37 16% .48 65% .32 1.11 55% 25% 26% -8 +2 0.91 42% 1.0 .42 18% .24 64% .15
Nov
24		 Elon F D+ F F F 30% 9% 61% B- F F D- F B- A+ F C+ F D F A+ C 37% 16% 47% B+ C+ F F F F C F D
0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21 1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25
Nov
26		 Mercer C- A+ D F F+ 38% 28% 34% D F+ C+ B B A D+ F F D A+ C+ F B- 17% 30% 53% A+ B F D- F D C- F D-
1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13 1.21 25% 36% 40% -2 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30
Nov
30		 UNC Asheville F A+ D F F+ 21% 30% 49% F F F A D+ C D F F C+ F+ F A+ A- 29% 29% 41% D B F+ F F B+ F F F
0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13 1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43
Dec
11		 East Carolina D+ A- C F C 46% 17% 38% B+ C+ A- D+ B F C- F D A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 43% 22% 35% D- A+ C+ A B+ D- A+ A+ A+
1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16 0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11
Dec
14		 High Point B- F A+ A+ A 36% 13% 51% C A- F D+ F A+ A+ C+ A A B A A+ 37% 0% 63% F+ A- C- A+ A+ D- D A+ B+
1.14 42% 57% 48% +8 +1 1.19 21% 1.0 .21 16% .41 73% .30 1.03 55% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 0.5 .16 11% .40 56% .22
Dec
18		 Coastal Carolina D+ C+ C+ A+ A 40% 27% 33% B A D- F F F A+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% D A+ C- A- B- D+ F+ A+ B-
1.03 56% 42% 47% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.7 .16 18% .42 64% .26 0.75 41% 42% 18% -15 -1 0.71 27% 0.8 .20 14% .32 50% .16
Dec
20		 Georgia St. F B- F C- D- 42% 16% 42% C+ D- F F F B+ A+ F B- D F B+ F+ F 30% 28% 41% C- F C+ A+ A+ A- F B- F+
0.93 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 19% 0.4 .08 13% .41 58% .24 1.04 79% 31% 37% +6 -2 1.11 26% 0.5 .13 21% .37 75% .28
Dec
31		 Old Dominion B+ A D- F C 46% 22% 33% C+ C+ A A+ A+ D A+ F B+ C- F A+ F F+ 33% 21% 46% D F+ C A+ A F+ F A+ C-
1.22 71% 30% 27% +1 0 1.04 42% 1.5 .65 17% .51 61% .31 1.10 71% 18% 42% +5 0 1.12 25% 0.7 .18 12% .38 59% .22
Jan
3		 Marshall C+ A- A D- B- 33% 27% 41% D+ C+ C- A- B- C+ A+ F B F+ B- F+ F F 34% 26% 40% C- F A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F
1.15 69% 46% 30% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.2 .38 16% .52 55% .29 1.25 59% 46% 55% +15 -1 1.30 21% 0.8 .18 11% .40 72% .29
Jan
8		 Georgia St. F F+ F F F 40% 13% 47% B- F B+ F C- D- F F F A+ A+ B A+ A+ 30% 44% 26% A A+ A F C- F B+ A+ A+
0.84 50% 0% 24% -15 +1 0.73 40% 0.8 .31 19% .20 60% .12 0.81 33% 32% 15% -17 -4 0.60 20% 1.5 .30 11% .24 62% .15
Jan
10		 Coastal Carolina C+ D+ F F+ F+ 29% 29% 43% C F+ B B+ B+ A+ C+ B B- F+ F A- F F 35% 28% 37% C- F C+ D+ C F+ B A+ A
1.08 50% 29% 29% -9 -2 0.82 32% 1.2 .38 7% .32 76% .24 1.16 69% 31% 47% +9 -1 1.17 24% 1.0 .24 12% .22 55% .12
Jan
15		 James Madison A+ C A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A A+ A- A+ A+ B F F F D+ A+ A+ F A+ 35% 13% 52% C- A+ F+ B+ C- F C C+ C
1.36 58% 50% 45% +10 +2 1.26 38% 1.3 .50 10% .15 63% .09 1.11 24% 17% 40% -10 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .33 10% .30 69% .21
Jan
17		 Old Dominion C- B- F F D- 53% 10% 37% A D+ D A+ B+ A- A F C F+ D F F F 24% 27% 49% B- F A F B- C- F A+ D-
1.12 65% 20% 22% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.5 .41 11% .43 60% .26 1.16 64% 50% 45% +13 -2 1.24 18% 1.4 .25 15% .42 61% .26
Jan
22		 Louisiana B C+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 13% 63% D+ A+ B+ F C- F D- F F C D+ B A+ A 24% 30% 46% C- A B+ F D F A- F C+
1.22 60% 80% 48% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .31 22% .32 60% .19 0.98 58% 33% 22% -10 -2 0.78 22% 1.4 .30 10% .17 89% .15
Jan
23		 Louisiana Monroe F C+ A+ F F 39% 5% 56% B+ F C- F F C- F A F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 9% 43% F A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ C+ C+ B-
0.85 64% 67% 19% -9 +2 0.88 34% 0.1 .04 16% .15 78% .12 0.62 20% 20% 22% -28 +2 0.51 20% 0.5 .10 17% .30 71% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Southern Miss C F F A+ D 48% 15% 37% B D+ D F F A- A+ A- A+ B+ B C+ A+ B+ 39% 35% 27% B- B+ D- A+ B+ C- F B+ F
1.05 41% 29% 47% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.5 .11 14% .50 76% .38 0.95 53% 35% 23% -7 -2 0.84 36% 0.7 .24 18% .48 69% .33
Jan
31		 Troy B- A+ C B- A- 15% 15% 70% D B+ C- F F F+ F A+ D- A+ C B A+ A+ 37% 12% 51% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+
1.12 86% 43% 36% +7 -1 1.15 30% 0.7 .20 20% .17 88% .15 0.75 56% 33% 16% -15 +1 0.73 22% 0.5 .11 15% .08 100% .08
Feb
4		 South Alabama C C+ A+ F D- 18% 4% 78% C+ D D+ A C+ A+ A+ F A- B C A+ F C 33% 29% 38% A+ C+ A- A+ A+ F A- D B
1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23 0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17
Feb
7		 Eastern Michigan D C- A+ F D- 56% 10% 33% A D+ C+ F F A A+ F B B- A+ D A+ A+ 30% 37% 33% A A+ B F F F A+ A- A+
1.01 56% 60% 19% -7 +3 0.94 32% 0.4 .12 11% .49 54% .26 0.93 44% 40% 17% -12 -3 0.72 23% 1.9 .44 9% .10 67% .07
Feb
11		 Georgia Southern B B- D D- D+ 49% 7% 44% B+ C- C+ C- C A- A+ D- A A- B A+ D C+ 42% 9% 49% D C+ D- A+ A+ B A+ A- A+
1.22 64% 33% 30% 0 +3 1.07 37% 1.0 .37 15% .50 71% .36 0.98 50% 0% 36% -5 +2 0.95 32% 0.5 .15 18% .17 67% .11
Feb
14		 James Madison F+ C- C- F F 21% 26% 53% F F B A+ A F+ A+ F B- C- A B D- B- 38% 20% 42% B- B- C- A- B- F C B+ C+
0.95 56% 36% 13% -18 -2 0.63 35% 1.3 .45 16% .47 58% .27 1.13 47% 30% 38% -3 0 0.96 30% 0.9 .27 8% .30 65% .20
Feb
19		 Marshall A+ C A+ B+ B 35% 5% 60% A B+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F D+ F F F 32% 25% 43% C- F B F+ C F F C+ F+
1.40 60% 50% 38% +5 +2 1.16 39% 1.6 .64 11% .67 70% .47 1.41 65% 62% 48% +17 -1 1.34 27% 1.3 .35 8% .34 71% .24
Feb
21		 Georgia Southern B A+ F C- B+ 40% 13% 47% C B C- B- C B- A+ B- A+ C D+ A+ D D+ 28% 11% 61% B- C- B- A+ A+ B- B+ F C
1.25 83% 17% 33% +7 +1 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 17% .63 78% .49 1.04 60% 0% 36% -2 0 1.00 24% 0.7 .16 17% .27 88% .24
Feb
27		 Texas St. F+ C B- F F 36% 11% 53% C+ F A+ F C+ D- A+ F C+ B B- F F+ F+ 40% 43% 17% A D A+ A+ A+ F+ C- A+ B
0.94 59% 40% 20% -11 +1 0.83 48% 0.7 .31 21% .46 55% .25 0.99 53% 50% 38% +4 -3 1.04 21% 0.7 .14 15% .29 60% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 14.1% 14.1% 14.5 0.7 6.6 6.3 0.5 85.9
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 14.5 85.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.1% 100.0% 14.5 4.7 47.2 44.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 32.8%
Lose Out 40.5%