Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#232
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#249
Pace65.5#286
Improvement+0.8#120

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#273
First Shot-2.1#232
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#281
Layup/Dunks+4.2#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.5#358
Freethrows-1.2#243
Improvement+1.3#77

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#176
First Shot-2.5#256
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#66
Layups/Dunks-2.4#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#191
Freethrows-2.1#300
Improvement-0.6#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.4% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 43.9% 55.5% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 55.0% 60.7% 48.1%
Conference Champion 4.2% 5.2% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.0% 3.7%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round3.6% 4.4% 2.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 83 - 10
Quad 412 - 614 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 119 @Bowling Green L 48-83 17%     0 - 1 -28.8 -20.3 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 8 172 @Tulane L 71-79 28%     0 - 2 -6.1 -0.5 -6.0
  Wed, Nov 12 269 Texas San Antonio W 80-69 68%     1 - 2 +2.0 +3.7 -1.8
  Sat, Nov 15 296 Texas Southern W 77-67 73%     2 - 2 -0.6 -1.7 +1.0
  Tue, Nov 18 234 Abilene Christian W 63-49 62%     3 - 2 +6.6 -3.6 +11.6
  Fri, Nov 21 305 Arkansas Little Rock W 65-56 74%     4 - 2 -2.0 -6.6 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 28 114 Seattle L 52-66 23%     4 - 3 -10.5 -9.9 -2.7
  Sat, Nov 29 299 Lehigh L 74-78 OT 63%     4 - 4 -11.7 -2.1 -9.6
  Wed, Dec 3 217 @Rice L 72-77 36%     4 - 5 -5.4 +1.1 -6.7
  Wed, Dec 10 201 Southern W 72-71 55%    
  Wed, Dec 17 155 Arkansas St. L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Dec 20 165 South Alabama L 66-67 49%    
  Wed, Dec 31 146 @Troy L 65-73 23%    
  Sat, Jan 3 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 74-67 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 219 @Southern Miss L 68-72 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 155 @Arkansas St. L 70-77 26%    
  Wed, Jan 14 318 Louisiana W 68-60 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 219 Southern Miss W 71-69 58%    
  Thu, Jan 22 260 @Coastal Carolina L 68-70 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 169 @James Madison L 67-73 28%    
  Wed, Jan 28 170 Marshall L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 220 Old Dominion W 71-69 59%    
  Wed, Feb 4 226 @Georgia Southern L 71-74 38%    
  Wed, Feb 11 146 Troy L 68-70 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 357 Louisiana Monroe W 77-64 87%    
  Thu, Feb 19 165 @South Alabama L 64-70 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 318 @Louisiana W 65-63 55%    
  Fri, Feb 27 283 Appalachian St. W 66-61 69%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 3.4 1.4 0.2 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.3 4.0 3.4 0.4 8.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 5.2 1.1 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.3 2.6 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.2 0.4 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.0 1.2 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.3 2.5 4.7 1.7 0.1 9.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 3.8 2.2 0.3 8.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.3 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.7 8.7 11.9 13.9 14.0 13.4 10.7 7.7 5.0 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.9% 0.4    0.3 0.0
15-3 86.4% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 56.7% 1.4    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
12-6 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 24.2% 24.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.2% 26.7% 26.7% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.4% 24.0% 24.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.8
13-5 5.0% 18.0% 18.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 4.1
12-6 7.7% 9.4% 9.4% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 7.0
11-7 10.7% 4.9% 4.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 10.2
10-8 13.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 13.1
9-9 14.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.1 0.1 13.8
8-10 13.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.8
7-11 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
6-12 8.7% 8.7
5-13 5.7% 5.7
4-14 3.0% 3.0
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.1 96.2 0.0%