Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.4 277
Results Rating -7.7 290
Consistency 0.13 75
Pace 73.7 49
Improvement +0.0 188

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 273 D C- C+ C D
Defense D+ 254 D D- B- F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 206 D+ 53% 295 -2.2 263
2 Pt. Jumpers 53% 37 D 33% 321 +1.4 100
Three Pointers 34% 312 C- 33% 220 -3.8 308
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 309 D -3.6 305
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 321
Second Chance C- 28.9% 222 C 1.03 182 C- 0.30 211
Opponents' Steals B- 8.4% 90
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 263
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 152
Freethrows C+ 0.32 141 D 68% 310 C 0.22 192
Total Offense D+ -3.8 273

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 193 C- 11.8% 230
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 37% 38 D 7.1% 306
Three Pointers C- 81% 252 B 0.3% 49
Total C 54% 197 D+ 6.5% 288


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 256 D+ 61% 278 +0.0 178
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 244 C 38% 181 -0.8 127
Three Pointers 45% 63 D 37% 316 +4.3 340
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 187 D +3.3 309
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 300
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 272 D- 1.17 348 D- 0.38 329
Turnovers from Steals B 11.5% 46
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 222
Turnovers B- 18.5% 74
Freethrows D- 0.36 327 D- 76% 339 F+ 0.27 345
Total Defense D+ -2.6 254

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 301 C+ 11.8% 142
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 288 A 10.9% 9
Three Pointers D- 90% 334 C 1.0% 136
Total D- 64% 337 B- 6.8% 88

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 105 16.7 69
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 140 0.20 299
Consistency 0.07 1 0.11 106
Improvement -0.1 189 +0.1 186

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 293 275 249
Results Rating Rank 309 281 232
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19% 21% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four19% 21% 17%
First Round10% 12% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Alabama A&M (Away) - 46.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 10 - 8
Quad 412 - 913 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 18 @Arkansas L 77 - 109 1% -21  2% 0 - 1 D -11 D+ -2 D+ B B+ D+ -4 C+ B- C-
 Wed, Nov 5 87 @Marquette L 82 - 100 8% -9  11% 0 - 2 D -9 C+ +3 C+ C A F+ -9 F B- D-
 Tue, Nov 18 52 @Washington L 93 - 99 2OT 4% +3  61% 0 - 3 B- +8 C+ +2 C- A+ F+ A- +7 A D+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 224 @San Jose St. L 66 - 80 29% -8  6% 0 - 4 F+ -15 F -12 F F D- C- -3 D D A+
 Sat, Nov 29 278 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 73 39% +8  92% 1 - 4 C -1 C +0 C+ C- D- C -1 D F B+
 Mon, Dec 8 27 @Texas L 69 - 95 2% -17  0% 1 - 5 D+ -8 D+ -4 B- F F D+ -4 D- F B+
 Wed, Dec 10 232 @Texas St. L 83 - 86 30% +2  66% 1 - 6 C- -4 C- -1 C+ C+ F C- -3 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 133 @California Baptist L 67 - 75 15% -4  6% 1 - 7 C- -3 D+ -3 D B F C -1 D+ B D+
 Sun, Dec 21 47 @Baylor L 67 - 111 4% -15  12% 1 - 8 F -29 D -4 F A+ A F -25 F D F
 Mon, Dec 29 5 @Illinois L 55 - 90 1% -20  0% 1 - 9 D -10 D- -7 F B+ C+ D -5 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 301 Texas Southern W 84 - 73 68% +8  92% 2 - 9 1 - 0 C -0 D -6 B- D C B +5 B D A-
 Mon, Jan 5 322 Prairie View L 85 - 89 75% -5  9% 2 - 10 1 - 1 F+ -17 D+ -3 F+ D+ C+ F -14 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 315 @Florida A&M L 59 - 67 51% -4  9% 2 - 11 1 - 2 D- -15 F -14 F F D- C -1 C- D- A+
 Mon, Jan 12 236 @Bethune-Cookman W 77 - 73 31% -4  11% 3 - 11 2 - 2 C+ +3 C +0 F B+ B- B- +3 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 309 @Grambling St. W 71 - 53 48% +11  88% 4 - 11 3 - 2 B+ +12 D+ -3 C- F C+ A+ +15 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 332 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 74 - 75 78% +2  72% 4 - 12 3 - 3 F+ -16 F+ -9 F A+ D- D- -7 C F D+
 Wed, Jan 28 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 69 95% +5  95% 5 - 12 4 - 3 D- -14 D+ -4 F C+ C- F -10 F+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @Alcorn St. L 73 - 78 66% -1  34% 5 - 13 4 - 4 F+ -16 C- -2 F D B+ F -14 F D+ A-
 Mon, Feb 2 345 @Jackson St. W 96 - 91 OT 63% +11  97% 6 - 13 5 - 4 C- -5 C+ +3 C- F A F+ -8 F D+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 304 Alabama A&M W 81 - 68 69% +8  98% 7 - 13 6 - 4 C +1 B- +5 B- B B- C- -2 B- F F
 Mon, Feb 9 313 Alabama St. W 69 - 68 72% +0  52% 8 - 13 7 - 4 D- -11 D- -7 F D A D+ -5 C- F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 322 @Prairie View W 87 - 82 54% +0  35% 9 - 13 8 - 4 C- -2 C +1 D+ C+ A- D+ -4 F+ B C
 Mon, Feb 16 301 @Texas Southern L 73 - 74 46% +6  84% 9 - 14 8 - 5 D+ -6 D- -8 D F C- C+ +1 D C A
 Sat, Feb 21 309 Grambling St. W 87 - 73 71% +17  94% 10 - 14 9 - 5 C+ +2 B- +4 A C F+ D+ -3 B- F C-
 Thu, Feb 26 315 Florida A&M L 71 - 82 72% -4  47% 10 - 15 9 - 6 F -24 F+ -8 F D+ A+ F -15 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 28 236 Bethune-Cookman L 79 - 82 53% -4  19% 10 - 16 9 - 7 D -10 D+ -3 C B C D- -8 D+ F A
 Tue, Mar 3 313 @Alabama St. W 71 - 64 50% -4  2% 11 - 16 10 - 7 C +1 D- -7 F C A A- +7 A+ F C+
 Thu, Mar 5 304 @Alabama A&M L 74 - 75 46%
Totals 11 - 17 10 - 8 -6 D+ -4 F+ D D D+ -3 C- D C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ D C- D 38% 53% 34% D D C- C C- C+ C+ D C D+ D+ C D D 36% 19% 45% C D D+ D- D- B- D- D- F+
1.03 53% 33% 33% -4 -1 0.93 29% 1.0 .30 16% .32 68% .22 1.12 61% 38% 37% +3 0 1.09 32% 1.2 .38 19% .36 76% .24
Nov
3		 Arkansas D+ D+ F A+ C 26% 33% 41% F D+ C A B B+ A F C- D+ F B- B+ C+ 40% 23% 37% B- C+ C- A- B- C- F F F
0.95 53% 11% 42% -6 -2 0.86 28% 1.4 .40 15% .35 46% .16 1.34 79% 36% 32% +7 0 1.15 36% 1.1 .41 11% .40 86% .35
Nov
5		 Marquette C+ C- D+ C C 56% 16% 27% A- C+ D A- C A A+ D+ A+ F+ F C- F+ F 33% 8% 59% B+ F B+ C B- D- C+ F D+
1.04 55% 33% 33% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.1 .30 16% .44 72% .32 1.26 75% 40% 39% +10 +1 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .29 80% .23
Nov
18		 Washington C+ C F C+ C- 34% 37% 29% D+ C- B+ A+ A+ F+ A+ D- A+ A- B- A C+ A 36% 38% 26% A- A D C D+ B F B F
1.01 57% 26% 33% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .43 19% .46 65% .30 1.07 57% 32% 33% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .43 17% .65 72% .47
Nov
21		 San Jose St. F C C- F F 33% 24% 43% D- F D F F D- D B- D+ C- B- C F D- 30% 36% 34% B D F B- D A+ F C- F
0.95 61% 38% 26% -4 -1 0.93 29% 0.7 .21 20% .25 79% .20 1.15 54% 38% 47% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 22% .53 76% .40
Nov
29		 Northwestern St. C D F A+ C 56% 14% 30% A- C+ C+ D- C- D- F F F C A+ F F D+ 36% 22% 42% D D F+ F+ F B+ B A B+
1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13 1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18
Dec
8		 Texas D+ C+ D A+ B- 46% 32% 22% C B- B+ F F F A+ F B+ D+ D+ C- F F+ 42% 16% 42% D+ D- C+ F F B+ F F F
0.96 57% 31% 45% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.3 .08 20% .43 64% .28 1.33 67% 43% 44% +11 +1 1.26 38% 1.6 .58 18% .55 91% .50
Dec
10		 Texas St. C- B C- A+ B 26% 31% 43% F C+ C B- C+ F C- D D+ C- D- D+ F F 53% 15% 32% F F C+ A+ A+ A F C+ F
1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22 1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38
Dec
16		 California Baptist D+ F F B+ D 38% 24% 38% C- D B B- B F B B- B+ C F+ C- B D+ 25% 10% 65% C D+ B B B D+ F F F
0.97 42% 25% 37% -8 0 0.86 32% 1.0 .32 20% .36 75% .27 1.08 62% 40% 30% -3 0 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 16% .45 81% .36
Dec
21		 Baylor D A+ D- F F+ 7% 61% 31% F F C A+ A+ A D+ F F+ F F D+ F F 19% 35% 46% A- F D C- D F F+ D F
0.96 75% 33% 24% -7 -7 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 13% .23 57% .13 1.59 82% 45% 54% +21 -3 1.37 42% 1.1 .48 6% .39 77% .30
Dec
29		 Illinois D- C- F F F 31% 44% 25% D- F B+ B B+ C+ C- B+ C- D F A+ F F 30% 11% 59% C+ F F B+ F A+ D F F
0.85 53% 21% 21% -14 -4 0.67 31% 1.0 .31 12% .14 75% .11 1.39 93% 20% 44% +18 +1 1.39 55% 1.1 .62 22% .36 89% .32
Jan
3		 Texas Southern D A- B+ C+ B+ 37% 29% 33% F B- F A+ D C A+ F A- B F B+ A+ B- 30% 34% 36% A B A F D A- F F F
1.07 68% 47% 35% +7 -1 1.14 16% 1.8 .29 15% .51 62% .31 0.93 71% 31% 24% -4 -2 0.89 18% 1.8 .32 22% .52 78% .41
Jan
5		 Prairie View D+ F F A+ F 49% 24% 27% C- F+ C D D+ C+ A+ A- A+ F F F D F 33% 41% 26% B+ F C+ F F B- D B+ C-
1.12 46% 25% 46% -4 0 0.94 36% 1.0 .36 17% .56 80% .44 1.17 67% 55% 36% +10 -3 1.17 23% 1.9 .42 17% .38 71% .27
Jan
10		 Florida A&M F D A+ F F 32% 29% 39% F F C F F D- A+ F A+ C D A+ B C+ 38% 14% 48% F C- F C D- A+ F F F
0.88 54% 58% 19% -4 -2 0.90 31% 0.5 .15 21% .51 67% .34 1.00 63% 17% 30% -4 +1 0.95 38% 0.8 .31 27% .41 85% .35
Jan
12		 Bethune-Cookman C F F D+ F 49% 21% 30% C- F B B B+ B- A+ B- A+ B- D F B- F+ 43% 17% 40% D F+ B A+ A+ A- D- F F
1.06 42% 18% 31% -13 +1 0.77 37% 1.2 .46 14% .48 73% .35 1.01 65% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.11 25% 0.5 .13 22% .37 81% .30
Jan
17		 Grambling St. D+ F+ B- B+ D+ 46% 10% 44% B C- D- F F C+ B+ F C- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 53% 9% 38% F A+ F C D- A+ F B F
1.02 50% 40% 38% -1 +2 1.04 28% 0.6 .17 19% .39 59% .23 0.76 28% 33% 23% -23 +3 0.62 35% 1.0 .35 33% .68 69% .47
Jan
24		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F+ A C F F 30% 28% 41% F F B A+ A+ D- A C+ A D- B+ C C- C 31% 18% 51% D+ C A F F D+ F B F
1.07 71% 38% 16% -7 -2 0.85 42% 1.4 .58 19% .46 77% .36 1.08 50% 38% 35% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.8 .34 17% .49 71% .35
Jan
28		 Mississippi Valley D+ A+ A F D 27% 49% 24% F F F+ A+ C+ C- A+ A A+ F B- F D F 18% 41% 41% B F+ F C+ D- C- A+ A A+
1.15 75% 50% 9% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.7 .48 17% .51 83% .42 1.00 50% 48% 35% +3 -4 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 20% .14 63% .09
Jan
31		 Alcorn St. C- C B F F+ 36% 20% 43% D- F C- D- D B+ A+ D A+ F F F F F 40% 9% 51% F F C- D+ D+ A- F+ D- F
1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33 1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24
Feb
2		 Jackson St. C+ C C- B C- 46% 20% 34% C C- C- F F A A+ F A- F+ B+ D+ F F 26% 26% 48% C+ F C D D+ F+ F C- F
1.19 61% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 36% 0.8 .27 11% .48 65% .31 1.13 47% 40% 43% +4 -2 1.07 28% 1.1 .30 15% .45 77% .35
Feb
7		 Alabama A&M B- B B- B+ B- 45% 20% 35% C B- A+ D B B- B B B+ C- A A+ F B- 35% 37% 28% A- B- C- F F F F A F
1.24 65% 40% 39% +6 +1 1.16 43% 0.9 .40 14% .37 76% .28 1.04 44% 24% 46% -5 -2 0.87 26% 1.4 .35 12% .51 66% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Alabama St. D- A- F D F 27% 35% 39% F F D+ D D A A B- A D+ D A- F F+ 24% 43% 33% A+ C- F F F A+ F B F
1.05 69% 18% 32% -6 -3 0.86 30% 1.0 .30 14% .44 76% .33 1.03 60% 28% 43% 0 -4 0.95 41% 1.2 .49 26% .47 65% .31
Feb
14		 Prairie View C B- B+ F D 52% 21% 27% C+ D+ C B- C+ A- A+ C+ A+ D+ C- C- D+ F+ 37% 25% 38% F+ F+ A D- B C F D+ F
1.13 63% 45% 21% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.2 .42 14% .50 76% .38 1.07 58% 38% 35% +1 -1 1.02 17% 1.2 .20 16% .49 78% .38
Feb
16		 Texas Southern D- F B+ A+ D 38% 21% 40% D D D- F F C- D- D+ D- C+ D+ C- C D 45% 20% 35% F+ D C C+ C A B F C+
1.00 35% 45% 43% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 16% .31 68% .21 1.02 61% 40% 33% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 22% .25 79% .19
Feb
21		 Grambling St. B- A+ D+ A+ A+ 42% 27% 31% D- A F A+ C F+ A- A+ A+ D+ F A+ A+ C+ 38% 32% 30% A- B- D- F F C- F C F
1.17 79% 33% 43% +12 -1 1.24 13% 2.7 .35 23% .40 83% .33 0.98 72% 20% 21% -6 -1 0.87 32% 1.5 .47 20% .44 73% .32
Feb
26		 Florida A&M F+ F D+ B- F 34% 21% 45% D+ F F+ B+ D+ A+ A+ F B F C D- D+ D- 52% 14% 34% F F+ F F F F F F F
1.01 33% 36% 38% -6 0 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 10% .44 64% .28 1.17 58% 43% 35% +1 +2 1.08 38% 1.4 .52 16% .40 75% .30
Feb
28		 Bethune-Cookman D+ F F A+ C 57% 17% 26% B- C C+ A B C C- F F D- F A+ A+ C 57% 13% 30% F D+ F F F A F F F
1.07 43% 22% 57% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.3 .44 15% .30 53% .16 1.11 69% 17% 21% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.4 .54 23% .53 77% .40
Mar
3		 Alabama St. D- F F C- F 45% 22% 33% C- F C- C+ C A A- D B A- B+ A A+ A+ 32% 23% 45% C+ A+ B- F F C+ B- B- B-
1.00 40% 25% 33% -11 0 0.80 32% 1.2 .37 13% .44 70% .31 0.90 47% 25% 21% -15 -1 0.70 27% 1.6 .44 18% .26 67% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 46.5 46.5 2nd
3rd 10.0 10.0 3rd
4th 29.0 29.0 4th
5th 14.5 14.5 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 53.5 46.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 46.5% 21.2% 21.2% 16.0 0.0 9.9 36.6
10-8 53.5% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 9.0 44.6
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 16.0 81.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.9% 100.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.5%
Lose Out 22.4%