Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#28
Expected Predictive Rating+18.0#19
Pace71.7#131
Improvement+0.5#150

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#12
First Shot+6.9#27
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#30
Layup/Dunks-2.8#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
Freethrows+3.7#26
Improvement+2.1#36

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#73
First Shot+1.9#115
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#89
Layups/Dunks+9.3#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#364
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#189
Freethrows+1.5#98
Improvement-1.6#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.5% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 4.9% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 17.1% 21.0% 10.6%
Top 6 Seed 38.5% 44.8% 28.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.7% 82.6% 67.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.9% 81.9% 66.0%
Average Seed 6.5 6.3 7.0
.500 or above 92.6% 96.3% 86.4%
.500 or above in Conference 62.6% 66.9% 55.3%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.2% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.4% 2.5%
First Four5.9% 5.2% 7.2%
First Round73.9% 80.1% 63.4%
Second Round48.8% 54.7% 38.9%
Sweet Sixteen19.7% 22.8% 14.6%
Elite Eight7.7% 9.0% 5.5%
Final Four2.8% 3.4% 1.9%
Championship Game1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 62.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 10
Quad 26 - 212 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 213 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96-81 96%     1 - 0 +8.8 +10.2 -2.9
  Sun, Nov 9 57 Washington W 78-69 76%     2 - 0 +15.4 +5.5 +9.8
  Fri, Nov 14 202 Tarleton St. W 94-81 95%     3 - 0 +7.4 +14.8 -7.9
  Mon, Nov 24 45 Creighton W 81-74 60%     4 - 0 +18.3 +15.3 +3.2
  Tue, Nov 25 13 St. John's L 81-96 35%     4 - 1 +2.9 +13.0 -9.8
  Wed, Nov 26 52 San Diego St. W 91-81 64%     5 - 1 +20.0 +21.7 -1.8
  Tue, Dec 2 274 Sacramento St. W 110-88 97%     6 - 1 +12.8 +24.9 -13.8
  Sat, Dec 6 75 @Memphis W 81-78 62%    
  Wed, Dec 10 231 Norfolk St. W 84-63 97%    
  Fri, Dec 19 333 Alcorn St. W 93-66 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 201 Southern W 91-72 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 48 @TCU L 77-78 49%    
  Wed, Jan 7 6 Iowa St. L 79-83 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 7 Houston L 70-73 39%    
  Tue, Jan 13 47 @Oklahoma St. L 87-88 49%    
  Fri, Jan 16 18 @Kansas L 74-79 31%    
  Tue, Jan 20 30 Texas Tech W 80-77 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 48 TCU W 81-75 70%    
  Wed, Jan 28 68 @Cincinnati W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 65 @West Virginia W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 64 Colorado W 85-77 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 6 @Iowa St. L 76-86 20%    
  Tue, Feb 10 8 BYU L 78-81 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 14 Louisville L 81-85 35%    
  Tue, Feb 17 71 @Kansas St. W 87-84 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 82 Arizona St. W 86-76 81%    
  Tue, Feb 24 9 Arizona L 81-83 42%    
  Sat, Feb 28 63 @Central Florida W 85-83 57%    
  Wed, Mar 4 7 @Houston L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Mar 7 117 Utah W 87-73 88%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.8 0.9 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.3 1.3 0.1 8.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.4 3.3 0.3 10.7 6th
7th 0.8 4.4 4.3 0.6 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.2 3.0 5.1 1.2 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 4.7 2.1 0.1 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 3.6 0.9 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.2 3.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.3 7.1 10.1 12.4 13.7 14.0 12.1 9.8 6.3 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.8% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 66.5% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 25.8% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 33.8% 66.3% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.9% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.8% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 3.2 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.3% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 4.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.8% 99.9% 6.0% 94.0% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 12.1% 99.8% 4.6% 95.3% 5.7 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.1 3.5 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.8%
10-8 14.0% 99.0% 2.3% 96.7% 6.8 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.4 4.0 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.9%
9-9 13.7% 94.4% 1.6% 92.9% 7.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.1 3.6 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.8 94.3%
8-10 12.4% 77.0% 0.9% 76.1% 9.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.7 1.8 0.1 2.9 76.8%
7-11 10.1% 43.6% 0.8% 42.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.2 0.1 0.0 5.7 43.1%
6-12 7.1% 15.1% 0.1% 15.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 6.1 15.1%
5-13 4.3% 1.6% 0.3% 1.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 4.2 1.3%
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 76.7% 3.4% 73.3% 6.5 1.1 2.7 5.5 7.9 10.3 11.1 11.0 8.8 7.4 5.6 5.1 0.3 0.0 23.3 75.9%