Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#13
Expected Predictive Rating+18.5#9
Pace64.9#299
Improvement+2.7#14

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#6
First Shot+9.5#9
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#117
Layup/Dunks+1.9#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#30
Freethrows+0.0#193
Improvement+0.9#85

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#50
First Shot+5.6#42
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#216
Layups/Dunks+8.3#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#315
Freethrows+3.3#30
Improvement+1.8#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 9.0% 9.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 22.4% 22.4% 8.2%
Top 4 Seed 52.1% 52.2% 26.0%
Top 6 Seed 71.4% 71.4% 50.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.4% 89.4% 75.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.3% 88.3% 73.1%
Average Seed 4.5 4.5 5.9
.500 or above 92.2% 92.3% 67.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.1% 82.1% 64.4%
Conference Champion 10.7% 10.7% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 11.0%
First Round87.7% 87.7% 69.9%
Second Round71.3% 71.3% 49.3%
Sweet Sixteen41.6% 41.6% 17.8%
Elite Eight20.3% 20.4% 6.8%
Final Four9.5% 9.5% 1.4%
Championship Game4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
National Champion1.8% 1.8% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 114 - 11
Quad 33 - 017 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 19%     0 - 1 -12.8 -1.0 -11.7
  Nov 09, 2024 27   Arkansas W 72-67 61%     1 - 1 +18.0 +12.3 +6.0
  Nov 12, 2024 111   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 91%     2 - 1 +37.5 +25.6 +10.3
  Nov 17, 2024 313   Tarleton St. W 104-41 99%     3 - 1 +51.6 +26.4 +24.6
  Nov 21, 2024 12   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 50%     4 - 1 +16.8 +11.0 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 5   Tennessee L 62-77 35%     4 - 2 +4.6 +8.9 -6.5
  Nov 27, 2024 342   New Orleans W 91-60 99.9%   
  Dec 04, 2024 3   @ Connecticut L 67-75 24%    
  Dec 09, 2024 210   Abilene Christian W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 11, 2024 208   Norfolk St. W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 50   Utah W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 11   @ Iowa St. L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 07, 2025 18   Cincinnati W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 68   @ Arizona St. W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 14, 2025 17   @ Arizona L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 19, 2025 60   TCU W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 22, 2025 58   Kansas St. W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 50   @ Utah W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 28, 2025 35   @ BYU W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 7   Kansas L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 04, 2025 23   @ Texas Tech L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 84   Central Florida W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 10, 2025 4   @ Houston L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 15, 2025 54   West Virginia W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 17, 2025 17   Arizona W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 66   @ Colorado W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 25, 2025 18   @ Cincinnati L 72-73 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 88   Oklahoma St. W 81-69 86%    
  Mar 04, 2025 60   @ TCU W 76-72 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 4   Houston L 67-68 46%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 10.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.4 3.4 1.0 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.9 0.9 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.1 0.1 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.6 0.2 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.4 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.8 6.9 9.2 11.7 12.9 13.0 11.7 9.8 6.9 4.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 93.7% 2.0    1.6 0.3 0.0
17-3 73.3% 2.9    1.9 0.9 0.1
16-4 42.3% 2.9    1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1
15-5 16.9% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.0 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 47.9% 52.1% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
18-2 2.1% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.0% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.9% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 1.9 2.3 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.8% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 2.5 1.6 3.7 3.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.7% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 3.1 0.7 2.6 4.5 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.0% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 3.8 0.2 1.2 3.8 4.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.9% 100.0% 6.1% 93.8% 4.7 0.1 0.3 1.9 3.5 3.8 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 11.7% 99.6% 3.1% 96.4% 5.8 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-10 9.2% 97.2% 2.0% 95.2% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.3 97.1%
9-11 6.9% 79.9% 1.7% 78.2% 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 1.4 79.6%
8-12 4.8% 38.7% 0.8% 37.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.9 38.2%
7-13 3.1% 8.8% 0.3% 8.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8 8.6%
6-14 1.7% 1.8% 0.2% 1.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.6%
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 89.4% 9.6% 79.8% 4.5 9.0 13.3 15.5 14.3 11.4 7.9 5.0 3.3 2.8 2.4 3.4 1.1 0.0 10.6 88.3%