Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#16
Expected Predictive Rating+16.0#24
Pace64.9#270
Improvement+1.7#102

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#16
First Shot+6.6#34
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#28
Layup/Dunks+1.5#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#81
Freethrows-2.1#306
Improvement-2.7#319

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#29
First Shot+5.2#39
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#70
Layups/Dunks+11.3#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#333
Freethrows+1.2#99
Improvement+4.4#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 2.1% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 6.5% 7.2% 2.3%
Top 4 Seed 29.6% 32.1% 16.2%
Top 6 Seed 61.4% 64.4% 45.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.8% 95.2% 86.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.4% 94.9% 85.8%
Average Seed 5.8 5.6 6.6
.500 or above 98.4% 99.1% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 94.6% 79.6%
Conference Champion 2.4% 2.7% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.7% 3.1% 7.0%
First Round92.4% 94.0% 83.5%
Second Round70.6% 72.8% 58.8%
Sweet Sixteen35.5% 37.2% 26.4%
Elite Eight15.3% 16.1% 10.9%
Final Four6.6% 7.0% 4.3%
Championship Game2.7% 2.9% 1.6%
National Champion1.1% 1.2% 0.5%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 11
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 10   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 30%     0 - 1 -16.4 -2.1 -14.1
  Nov 09, 2024 41   Arkansas W 72-67 66%     1 - 1 +16.9 +11.3 +5.9
  Nov 12, 2024 159   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 95%     2 - 1 +34.2 +22.0 +10.6
  Nov 17, 2024 272   Tarleton St. W 104-41 98%     3 - 1 +54.1 +29.6 +23.9
  Nov 21, 2024 20   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 52%     4 - 1 +16.6 +14.4 +2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 8   Tennessee L 62-77 40%     4 - 2 +3.8 +10.0 -8.3
  Nov 27, 2024 349   New Orleans W 91-60 99%     5 - 2 +15.7 +17.8 +0.6
  Dec 04, 2024 17   @ Connecticut L 72-76 39%     5 - 3 +15.0 +15.5 -1.2
  Dec 09, 2024 220   Abilene Christian W 88-57 97%     6 - 3 +24.6 +20.7 +5.9
  Dec 11, 2024 180   Norfolk St. W 94-69 96%     7 - 3 +21.2 +18.4 +2.8
  Dec 31, 2024 76   Utah W 81-56 87%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +29.2 +3.0 +24.0
  Jan 04, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 55-74 24%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +4.7 -2.4 +5.6
  Jan 07, 2025 42   Cincinnati W 68-48 76%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +28.9 +14.4 +17.8
  Jan 11, 2025 64   @ Arizona St. W 72-66 OT 68%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +17.5 +6.7 +10.8
  Jan 14, 2025 12   @ Arizona L 70-81 33%     10 - 5 3 - 2 +9.6 +8.8 +0.5
  Jan 19, 2025 66   TCU W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 22, 2025 93   Kansas St. W 77-64 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 76   @ Utah W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 28, 2025 45   @ BYU W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 5   Kansas L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 04, 2025 21   @ Texas Tech L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 73   Central Florida W 81-69 87%    
  Feb 10, 2025 3   @ Houston L 61-70 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 32   West Virginia W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 17, 2025 12   Arizona W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 85   @ Colorado W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 25, 2025 42   @ Cincinnati W 67-66 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 103   Oklahoma St. W 80-65 92%    
  Mar 04, 2025 66   @ TCU W 71-66 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 3   Houston L 64-67 39%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.6 4.9 1.1 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 6.2 7.5 1.9 0.1 17.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 7.1 8.7 2.9 0.2 20.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.8 7.5 2.6 0.2 17.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.8 9.1 14.2 18.1 18.8 15.9 9.9 4.6 1.4 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 88.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 61.2% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 21.9% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.6% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 2.5 0.7 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.9% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 3.4 0.3 1.6 3.3 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.9% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 4.4 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.3 4.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 18.8% 99.9% 5.3% 94.6% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 5.9 5.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 18.1% 99.6% 3.2% 96.4% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.5 5.2 4.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
11-9 14.2% 97.1% 2.4% 94.7% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.6 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.4 97.0%
10-10 9.1% 88.6% 1.4% 87.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.4 0.0 1.0 88.4%
9-11 4.8% 57.4% 1.2% 56.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 0.1 2.1 56.9%
8-12 2.1% 17.4% 0.6% 16.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.7 16.9%
7-13 0.7% 2.4% 2.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.4%
6-14 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.8% 5.7% 88.2% 5.8 1.8 4.6 9.2 13.9 16.6 15.2 12.1 7.8 5.0 4.0 3.4 0.2 6.2 93.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.4 12.5 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 61.5 38.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 52.0 40.0 8.0