Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#28
Expected Predictive Rating+17.1#14
Pace68.2#183
Improvement+0.3#173

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#27
First Shot+4.9#58
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#27
Layup/Dunks+3.4#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#134
Freethrows-0.6#210
Improvement-1.7#270

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#33
First Shot+6.1#29
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#113
Layups/Dunks+8.8#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#338
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#247
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement+2.0#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 3.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 28.8% 40.0% 16.1%
Top 6 Seed 79.9% 90.3% 68.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 100.0% 99.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 100.0% 99.1%
Average Seed 5.3 4.8 5.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 97.6% 76.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.6% 100.0% 99.1%
Second Round74.1% 79.3% 68.2%
Sweet Sixteen32.2% 36.7% 27.1%
Elite Eight10.8% 12.5% 8.9%
Final Four3.6% 4.2% 2.9%
Championship Game1.3% 1.5% 1.1%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 9
Quad 25 - 114 - 10
Quad 33 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 348   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +19.7 +10.6 +7.6
  Nov 08, 2024 252   Georgia St. W 101-66 97%     2 - 0 +27.4 +15.7 +9.4
  Nov 12, 2024 213   SE Louisiana W 80-59 96%     3 - 0 +15.8 +2.7 +12.5
  Nov 17, 2024 68   Utah W 78-73 73%     4 - 0 +13.3 +7.2 +6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 37   @ SMU W 84-79 49%     5 - 0 +20.1 +16.3 +3.8
  Nov 28, 2024 98   UNLV W 80-58 82%     6 - 0 +26.9 +15.5 +12.7
  Nov 29, 2024 66   Butler L 77-87 73%     6 - 1 -1.7 +3.7 -5.0
  Dec 04, 2024 52   Pittsburgh W 90-57 74%     7 - 1 +41.1 +22.6 +19.6
  Dec 08, 2024 356   Prairie View W 91-84 99%     8 - 1 -9.3 +12.5 -21.7
  Dec 14, 2024 86   McNeese St. W 66-63 78%     9 - 1 +9.6 +1.4 +8.5
  Dec 17, 2024 215   Central Michigan W 83-59 94%     10 - 1 +21.3 +16.2 +7.3
  Dec 21, 2024 47   @ Memphis W 79-66 54%     11 - 1 +26.7 +11.5 +14.8
  Dec 30, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman W 87-73 98%     12 - 1 +4.1 +11.5 -7.3
  Jan 04, 2025 84   South Carolina W 85-50 84%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +39.2 +17.5 +22.4
  Jan 07, 2025 53   @ Vanderbilt W 76-64 56%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +25.2 +10.5 +15.0
  Jan 11, 2025 17   Kentucky L 90-95 51%     14 - 2 2 - 1 +9.4 +14.8 -5.1
  Jan 14, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 66-88 14%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +4.1 +3.0 +1.4
  Jan 18, 2025 25   Mississippi W 84-81 OT 59%     15 - 3 3 - 2 +15.3 +12.9 +2.3
  Jan 21, 2025 5   @ Tennessee L 56-68 23%     15 - 4 3 - 3 +10.5 +5.0 +3.8
  Jan 25, 2025 84   @ South Carolina W 65-60 OT 70%     16 - 4 4 - 3 +14.3 -2.3 +16.5
  Jan 29, 2025 6   Alabama L 84-88 41%     16 - 5 4 - 4 +12.9 +16.1 -3.2
  Feb 01, 2025 15   Missouri L 61-88 49%     16 - 6 4 - 5 -11.9 -2.9 -11.0
  Feb 08, 2025 44   @ Georgia W 76-75 52%     17 - 6 5 - 5 +15.2 +16.1 -0.9
  Feb 11, 2025 4   Florida L 68-81 32%     17 - 7 5 - 6 +6.7 +3.0 +3.8
  Feb 15, 2025 25   @ Mississippi W 81-71 40%     18 - 7 6 - 6 +27.4 +11.0 +15.6
  Feb 18, 2025 20   Texas A&M W 70-54 55%     19 - 7 7 - 6 +29.5 +9.3 +20.9
  Feb 22, 2025 50   @ Oklahoma W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 6   @ Alabama L 81-88 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 72   LSU W 78-69 82%    
  Mar 04, 2025 36   Texas W 76-71 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 35   @ Arkansas L 71-72 46%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 1.8 3.3 4th
5th 0.5 6.5 0.9 7.8 5th
6th 0.2 6.6 9.3 0.1 16.2 6th
7th 0.1 4.9 18.3 2.7 25.9 7th
8th 1.3 13.4 8.4 0.1 23.3 8th
9th 0.1 5.0 9.6 1.2 15.9 9th
10th 0.6 3.9 0.6 5.1 10th
11th 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 1.6 10.7 28.7 34.9 20.1 4.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.0% 100.0% 3.0% 97.0% 3.2 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 20.1% 100.0% 2.1% 97.9% 4.1 0.0 0.8 4.9 6.9 5.8 1.5 0.1 100.0%
10-8 34.9% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 5.1 0.2 2.6 6.9 13.3 9.5 2.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 28.7% 99.9% 0.8% 99.1% 5.9 0.0 0.6 2.1 7.7 10.4 6.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 99.9%
8-10 10.7% 98.3% 0.3% 98.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.2 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.3%
7-11 1.6% 86.9% 86.9% 8.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 86.9%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.6% 1.4% 98.2% 5.3 0.1 1.8 10.0 16.9 27.6 23.6 12.0 5.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 2.4 12.8 35.9 48.7 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 2.9 35.5 43.0 19.4 2.2
Lose Out 0.7% 74.2% 9.7 3.0 18.2 48.5 4.5