Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#28
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#18
Pace69.1#171
Improvement-2.2#306

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#25
First Shot+4.5#60
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#26
Layup/Dunks+3.5#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement-1.6#303

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#51
First Shot+4.0#70
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#104
Layups/Dunks+7.9#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#284
Freethrows+1.5#77
Improvement-0.5#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 5.8% 6.1% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 24.4% 25.3% 11.4%
Top 6 Seed 46.8% 48.1% 28.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.8% 80.0% 62.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.4% 79.6% 61.9%
Average Seed 6.1 6.0 7.0
.500 or above 94.0% 95.0% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 49.6% 50.7% 35.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 1.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 4.9% 9.0%
First Four5.5% 5.4% 7.2%
First Round76.1% 77.4% 58.7%
Second Round51.2% 52.4% 35.5%
Sweet Sixteen23.0% 23.6% 13.9%
Elite Eight8.9% 9.3% 4.6%
Final Four3.4% 3.5% 1.6%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.5%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Neutral) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 10
Quad 25 - 213 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 348   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +19.9 +11.3 +7.2
  Nov 08, 2024 253   Georgia St. W 101-66 96%     2 - 0 +26.8 +18.0 +6.6
  Nov 12, 2024 230   SE Louisiana W 80-59 96%     3 - 0 +14.3 +4.3 +9.4
  Nov 17, 2024 66   Utah W 78-73 67%     4 - 0 +13.4 +7.3 +5.9
  Nov 22, 2024 49   @ SMU W 84-79 48%     5 - 0 +18.3 +15.9 +2.3
  Nov 28, 2024 113   UNLV W 80-58 81%     6 - 0 +25.5 +12.7 +14.1
  Nov 29, 2024 74   Butler L 77-87 70%     6 - 1 -2.6 +4.5 -6.7
  Dec 04, 2024 32   Pittsburgh W 90-57 63%     7 - 1 +42.4 +24.5 +19.0
  Dec 08, 2024 340   Prairie View W 91-84 99%     8 - 1 -7.2 +10.2 -17.2
  Dec 14, 2024 92   McNeese St. W 66-63 75%     9 - 1 +9.0 +1.3 +7.9
  Dec 17, 2024 219   Central Michigan W 82-66 93%    
  Dec 21, 2024 34   @ Memphis L 78-80 41%    
  Dec 30, 2024 289   Bethune-Cookman W 84-61 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 69   South Carolina W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 07, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt W 79-78 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 11   Kentucky L 82-83 45%    
  Jan 14, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 72-85 12%    
  Jan 18, 2025 26   Mississippi W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 21, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 65-75 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 7   Alabama L 81-84 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 51   Missouri W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 40   @ Georgia L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 11, 2025 8   Florida L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 18, 2025 24   Texas A&M W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 37   @ Oklahoma L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 78-87 22%    
  Mar 01, 2025 60   LSU W 79-72 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 33   Texas W 75-71 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 29   @ Arkansas L 75-78 39%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 3.7 0.8 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.6 1.7 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.7 3.2 0.3 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 4.8 0.9 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.6 4.0 0.4 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 4.8 1.4 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.6 0.2 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.1 0.1 4.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.2 3.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.7 10.0 13.0 14.1 14.4 12.4 9.9 6.4 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 88.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-3 63.0% 0.4    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 33.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.7% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.8% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 2.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.9% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 2.7 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 6.4% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 3.4 0.2 1.0 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 9.9% 100.0% 3.4% 96.6% 4.1 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.3 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.4% 99.9% 1.9% 98.0% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 3.9 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 14.4% 99.6% 1.1% 98.5% 6.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.4 4.1 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
8-10 14.1% 96.0% 0.6% 95.4% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.1 3.2 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.6 96.0%
7-11 13.0% 79.1% 0.3% 78.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.1 0.1 2.7 79.1%
6-12 10.0% 44.9% 0.2% 44.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 0.3 5.5 44.8%
5-13 6.7% 11.9% 0.1% 11.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.9 11.8%
4-14 3.8% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.1%
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 78.8% 1.9% 76.9% 6.1 1.7 4.2 8.4 10.2 11.7 10.7 8.6 6.9 5.7 4.9 5.3 0.6 0.0 21.2 78.4%