Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#26
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#110
Pace73.0#87
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.7% 3.7% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 6.8% 9.1% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 20.5% 25.9% 11.9%
Top 6 Seed 36.7% 44.3% 24.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.3% 73.9% 54.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.7% 72.4% 52.8%
Average Seed 6.1 5.8 6.8
.500 or above 85.4% 91.4% 75.6%
.500 or above in Conference 61.9% 67.5% 53.0%
Conference Champion 5.1% 6.3% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 2.6% 5.3%
First Four4.0% 3.7% 4.4%
First Round64.4% 72.1% 52.0%
Second Round43.7% 50.4% 32.8%
Sweet Sixteen20.8% 25.1% 14.0%
Elite Eight9.3% 11.5% 5.8%
Final Four4.1% 5.2% 2.3%
Championship Game1.7% 2.3% 0.9%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: Utah (Neutral) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 26 - 311 - 11
Quad 34 - 115 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 349   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +19.4 +10.6 +7.4
  Nov 08, 2024 223   Georgia St. W 101-66 95%     2 - 0 +28.8 +18.6 +8.0
  Nov 12, 2024 276   SE Louisiana W 80-59 97%     3 - 0 +12.0 +0.6 +10.7
  Nov 17, 2024 51   Utah W 78-75 62%    
  Nov 22, 2024 63   @ SMU W 80-79 53%    
  Nov 28, 2024 94   UNLV W 76-69 74%    
  Dec 04, 2024 35   Pittsburgh W 77-73 66%    
  Dec 08, 2024 345   Prairie View W 91-63 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 99   McNeese St. W 76-68 75%    
  Dec 17, 2024 201   Central Michigan W 78-63 91%    
  Dec 21, 2024 34   @ Memphis L 78-80 44%    
  Dec 30, 2024 291   Bethune-Cookman W 86-64 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 64   South Carolina W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 07, 2025 83   @ Vanderbilt W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 12   Kentucky L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 73-83 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 61   Mississippi W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 21, 2025 9   @ Tennessee L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 64   @ South Carolina W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 7   Alabama L 80-82 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 71   Missouri W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 68   @ Georgia W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 11, 2025 21   Florida W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 61   @ Mississippi W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 18, 2025 28   Texas A&M W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 52   @ Oklahoma W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 25, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 77-85 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 48   LSU W 79-73 69%    
  Mar 04, 2025 23   Texas W 75-72 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 19   @ Arkansas L 74-78 37%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 5.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.8 1.0 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.4 1.5 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.6 3.6 3.6 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 4.4 1.2 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.3 0.5 6.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 3.4 1.2 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.9 0.2 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.0 4.7 7.1 9.7 11.3 12.3 12.5 11.8 9.7 7.1 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 86.7% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 66.0% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 30.8% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 2.1 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.5% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 2.8 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.1% 99.9% 12.6% 87.3% 3.8 0.3 0.9 2.0 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 9.7% 99.7% 7.5% 92.2% 4.8 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 11.8% 97.9% 4.8% 93.0% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 97.8%
10-8 12.5% 92.0% 2.8% 89.1% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.0 91.7%
9-9 12.3% 78.3% 1.1% 77.2% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.7 78.0%
8-10 11.3% 50.1% 1.1% 49.0% 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.2 5.6 49.5%
7-11 9.7% 23.3% 0.5% 22.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.4 22.9%
6-12 7.1% 6.9% 0.2% 6.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.6 6.8%
5-13 4.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.6%
4-14 3.0% 3.0
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 66.3% 4.6% 61.7% 6.1 2.7 4.1 6.4 7.3 8.1 8.2 7.8 6.6 5.7 4.6 4.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 33.7 64.7%