Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.4#32
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#28
Pace68.8#185
Improvement-5.3#361

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#34
First Shot+8.9#10
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#300
Layup/Dunks+3.5#67
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#91
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement-2.9#351

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#39
First Shot+8.0#8
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#328
Layups/Dunks-0.5#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#11
Freethrows+4.0#8
Improvement-2.4#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.3% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 10.2% 10.9% 4.0%
Top 6 Seed 25.4% 26.7% 13.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.1% 77.5% 63.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.0% 75.5% 61.1%
Average Seed 7.5 7.4 8.3
.500 or above 99.3% 99.5% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 92.1% 86.9%
Conference Champion 6.6% 6.9% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four7.3% 7.1% 8.8%
First Round72.3% 73.8% 58.6%
Second Round42.5% 43.8% 31.1%
Sweet Sixteen16.1% 16.8% 9.5%
Elite Eight6.3% 6.6% 3.5%
Final Four2.4% 2.6% 1.3%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 89.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 38 - 119 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 202   Radford W 96-56 94%     1 - 0 +35.2 +18.9 +15.8
  Nov 08, 2024 116   Murray St. W 83-68 87%     2 - 0 +15.2 +11.1 +4.2
  Nov 11, 2024 240   Gardner-Webb W 83-64 95%     3 - 0 +11.9 +2.8 +8.3
  Nov 15, 2024 42   West Virginia W 86-62 65%     4 - 0 +32.4 +15.0 +16.4
  Nov 18, 2024 350   VMI W 93-48 99%     5 - 0 +29.7 +14.8 +15.8
  Nov 22, 2024 60   LSU W 74-63 63%     6 - 0 +20.1 +8.9 +11.6
  Nov 24, 2024 35   Wisconsin L 75-81 51%     6 - 1 +6.1 +7.3 -1.3
  Nov 29, 2024 39   @ Ohio St. W 91-90 OT 41%     7 - 1 +15.8 +18.2 -2.5
  Dec 04, 2024 28   @ Mississippi St. L 57-90 37%     7 - 2 -17.1 -7.3 -11.0
  Dec 07, 2024 125   @ Virginia Tech W 64-59 75%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +10.2 -0.8 +11.4
  Dec 11, 2024 218   Eastern Kentucky W 96-56 95%     9 - 2 +34.2 +18.3 +15.8
  Dec 21, 2024 128   Sam Houston St. W 82-69 90%    
  Jan 01, 2025 120   California W 83-70 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 87   Stanford W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 07, 2025 2   @ Duke L 65-76 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 50   Louisville W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 65   @ Florida St. W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 30   Clemson W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 97   @ Syracuse W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 28, 2025 18   North Carolina W 80-79 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 94   @ Wake Forest W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 03, 2025 93   Virginia W 67-57 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 18   @ North Carolina L 77-82 32%    
  Feb 11, 2025 49   @ SMU L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 91   Miami (FL) W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 18, 2025 97   Syracuse W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 81   @ Notre Dame W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 25, 2025 110   Georgia Tech W 80-68 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 50   @ Louisville L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 79   @ North Carolina St. W 72-70 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 150   Boston College W 79-64 91%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.8 5.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.5 5.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.2 6.2 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.3 3.0 4.2 1.3 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.4 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.1 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.5 7.1 10.6 13.2 15.2 15.0 12.9 9.1 5.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 95.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1
18-2 72.9% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.0
17-3 42.3% 2.2    1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
16-4 16.3% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 3.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 2.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.4% 99.9% 23.1% 76.9% 3.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-3 5.2% 100.0% 19.0% 80.9% 4.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.1% 99.7% 15.7% 84.0% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.4 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 12.9% 98.4% 11.9% 86.5% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.0 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.2%
14-6 15.0% 94.6% 8.8% 85.8% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.1 3.5 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.8 94.1%
13-7 15.2% 86.8% 6.0% 80.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.8 3.8 3.1 1.2 0.0 2.0 86.0%
12-8 13.2% 72.2% 3.8% 68.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.1 2.2 0.1 3.7 71.2%
11-9 10.6% 54.3% 2.5% 51.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.2 0.1 4.9 53.1%
10-10 7.1% 36.8% 1.4% 35.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.1 4.5 35.9%
9-11 4.5% 11.6% 0.6% 10.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.0 11.0%
8-12 2.3% 3.2% 0.6% 2.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 2.6%
7-13 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 76.1% 7.9% 68.2% 7.5 0.5 1.6 3.0 5.0 6.7 8.5 9.8 10.4 11.6 10.7 7.9 0.3 23.9 74.0%