Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#81
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#111
Pace63.5#318
Improvement-1.7#288

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#78
First Shot+6.6#32
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#321
Layup/Dunks+2.9#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#101
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement-2.6#343

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#96
First Shot+3.6#76
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#240
Layups/Dunks+3.7#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#293
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#206
Freethrows+1.7#71
Improvement+0.9#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.0% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.9% 4.0% 0.9%
Average Seed 10.2 10.2 10.4
.500 or above 61.9% 62.6% 32.2%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 60.2% 42.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.7% 3.1%
First Four1.9% 2.0% 0.5%
First Round3.9% 4.0% 0.9%
Second Round1.5% 1.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 7
Quad 25 - 56 - 13
Quad 35 - 211 - 15
Quad 46 - 117 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 323   Stonehill W 89-60 95%     1 - 0 +16.9 +13.2 +4.5
  Nov 11, 2024 324   Buffalo W 86-77 95%     2 - 0 -3.2 -1.2 -2.8
  Nov 16, 2024 90   @ Georgetown W 84-63 41%     3 - 0 +30.1 +23.7 +8.3
  Nov 19, 2024 302   North Dakota W 75-58 94%     4 - 0 +6.4 -2.7 +9.7
  Nov 22, 2024 149   Elon L 77-84 81%     4 - 1 -9.5 +9.8 -19.9
  Nov 26, 2024 62   Rutgers L 84-85 OT 42%     4 - 2 +7.8 +11.2 -3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 6   Houston L 54-65 13%     4 - 3 +8.0 -0.3 +6.7
  Nov 30, 2024 36   Creighton L 76-80 31%     4 - 4 +8.1 +9.4 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2024 40   @ Georgia L 48-69 23%     4 - 5 -6.4 -7.4 -3.0
  Dec 07, 2024 97   Syracuse W 69-64 67%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +7.4 -2.3 +9.8
  Dec 11, 2024 306   Dartmouth W 77-65 94%     6 - 5 +1.2 +2.3 -0.8
  Dec 22, 2024 338   Le Moyne W 80-59 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 110   @ Georgia Tech L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 18   North Carolina L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 08, 2025 79   @ North Carolina St. L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 2   @ Duke L 60-77 6%    
  Jan 13, 2025 150   Boston College W 73-64 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 97   @ Syracuse L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 93   @ Virginia L 59-61 43%    
  Jan 28, 2025 110   Georgia Tech W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 91   @ Miami (FL) L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 04, 2025 65   @ Florida St. L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 125   Virginia Tech W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 12, 2025 150   @ Boston College W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 16, 2025 50   Louisville L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 49   SMU L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 32   Pittsburgh L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 30   @ Clemson L 62-71 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 94   @ Wake Forest L 66-68 43%    
  Mar 05, 2025 87   Stanford W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 120   California W 77-70 74%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.5 3.7 4.1 0.9 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 5.2 1.8 0.1 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 4.5 0.7 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 4.8 1.8 0.1 8.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.0 0.3 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 3.5 0.9 0.0 5.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 5.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 4.7 7.7 10.7 13.1 14.4 13.8 11.8 8.7 5.7 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 72.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 42.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 16.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 97.4% 9.2% 88.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
17-3 0.5% 79.4% 9.5% 70.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 77.3%
16-4 1.5% 58.3% 6.1% 52.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 55.6%
15-5 3.1% 34.8% 5.6% 29.2% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 2.0 30.9%
14-6 5.7% 18.3% 3.4% 15.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 4.7 15.5%
13-7 8.7% 8.2% 1.9% 6.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 8.0 6.4%
12-8 11.8% 3.2% 1.3% 2.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.4 2.0%
11-9 13.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.7 0.3%
10-10 14.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 0.0%
9-11 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 13.1
8-12 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7
7-13 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 7.7
6-14 4.7% 4.7
5-15 2.5% 2.5
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.9% 1.0% 3.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1 3.9%