North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#302
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#287
Pace68.9#181
Improvement-0.9#252

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#216
First Shot-4.3#304
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#43
Layup/Dunks-2.5#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#212
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement+1.6#59

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#345
First Shot-6.2#353
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#160
Layups/Dunks-2.7#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#327
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#259
Freethrows+0.4#158
Improvement-2.6#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.6% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 2.3% 9.6% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 24.0% 37.6% 23.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.0% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 24.7% 15.5% 24.8%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 1.4%
First Round1.1% 2.0% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Home) - 1.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 73 - 11
Quad 47 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 108   @ Colorado St. L 56-82 9%     0 - 1 -18.9 -14.8 -2.5
  Nov 14, 2024 165   Utah Valley W 77-71 35%     1 - 1 +2.5 +3.6 -1.1
  Nov 19, 2024 81   @ Notre Dame L 58-75 6%     1 - 2 -7.2 -8.5 +0.7
  Nov 22, 2024 189   @ Loyola Marymount W 77-73 19%     2 - 2 +5.6 +3.6 +1.9
  Nov 26, 2024 289   Bethune-Cookman L 67-79 47%     2 - 3 -18.8 -6.7 -12.0
  Nov 27, 2024 230   SE Louisiana L 60-76 35%     2 - 4 -19.7 -8.1 -12.6
  Dec 04, 2024 251   @ Eastern Washington L 81-87 30%     2 - 5 -8.1 +10.5 -19.1
  Dec 07, 2024 208   Weber St. W 80-75 42%     3 - 5 -0.4 +7.6 -7.7
  Dec 11, 2024 165   @ Utah Valley L 57-80 17%     3 - 6 -20.5 -9.6 -12.2
  Dec 13, 2024 234   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-80 26%     3 - 7 -4.9 -2.2 -2.4
  Dec 15, 2024 234   Texas San Antonio L 85-95 47%     3 - 8 -16.9 +1.6 -17.8
  Dec 18, 2024 7   Alabama L 72-95 1%    
  Jan 02, 2025 294   Nebraska Omaha W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 04, 2025 143   St. Thomas L 74-79 31%    
  Jan 09, 2025 325   @ Denver L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 293   @ Oral Roberts L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 16, 2025 123   @ South Dakota St. L 69-82 11%    
  Jan 18, 2025 271   UMKC W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 23, 2025 228   South Dakota L 83-84 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 131   @ North Dakota St. L 69-81 13%    
  Feb 01, 2025 123   South Dakota St. L 72-79 26%    
  Feb 06, 2025 294   @ Nebraska Omaha L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 271   @ UMKC L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 325   Denver W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 293   Oral Roberts W 77-75 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 131   North Dakota St. L 72-78 28%    
  Feb 27, 2025 143   @ St. Thomas L 71-82 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 228   @ South Dakota L 80-87 26%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 6.5 4.6 0.9 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 7.4 5.5 0.9 0.0 16.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.8 7.9 5.8 1.0 0.0 17.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.4 5.1 0.9 0.0 17.5 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 4.3 5.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 15.2 9th
Total 0.3 1.7 4.8 9.1 13.2 16.2 16.2 14.5 10.6 6.9 3.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-3 80.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 52.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
11-5 15.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.2% 11.1% 11.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.7% 9.9% 9.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-5 1.7% 9.0% 9.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
10-6 3.8% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 3.6
9-7 6.9% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.6
8-8 10.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 10.3
7-9 14.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 14.1
6-10 16.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 16.0
5-11 16.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 16.1
4-12 13.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.2
3-13 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
2-14 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
1-15 1.7% 1.7
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%