North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#277
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#281
Pace70.1#137
Improvement+0.5#160

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#155
First Shot-2.6#246
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#21
Layup/Dunks-2.4#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#144
Freethrows-1.1#260
Improvement+3.1#35

Defense
Total Defense-7.3#351
First Shot-8.2#358
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#105
Layups/Dunks-3.2#300
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#312
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#295
Freethrows-0.3#209
Improvement-2.6#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.3% 19.3% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 2.8% 11.1%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 0.9%
First Round0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 33 - 63 - 13
Quad 46 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 76   @ Colorado St. L 56-82 7%     0 - 1 -16.0 -14.0 -0.5
  Nov 14, 2024 140   Utah Valley W 77-71 31%     1 - 1 +4.8 +5.5 -0.8
  Nov 19, 2024 77   @ Notre Dame L 58-75 7%     1 - 2 -7.0 -10.3 +2.7
  Nov 22, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 77-73 17%     2 - 2 +7.6 +5.3 +2.2
  Nov 26, 2024 255   Bethune-Cookman L 67-79 45%     2 - 3 -17.3 -4.7 -12.5
  Nov 27, 2024 220   SE Louisiana L 60-76 38%     2 - 4 -19.3 -9.1 -11.1
  Dec 04, 2024 257   @ Eastern Washington L 81-87 35%     2 - 5 -8.6 +11.9 -21.0
  Dec 07, 2024 237   Weber St. W 80-75 52%     3 - 5 -2.1 +6.4 -8.2
  Dec 11, 2024 140   @ Utah Valley L 57-80 16%     3 - 6 -18.7 -7.9 -12.1
  Dec 13, 2024 229   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-80 30%     3 - 7 -5.1 -3.2 -1.8
  Dec 15, 2024 229   Texas San Antonio L 85-95 50%     3 - 8 -16.6 +0.9 -16.9
  Dec 18, 2024 7   Alabama L 90-97 3%     3 - 9 +9.7 +16.2 -6.1
  Jan 02, 2025 222   Nebraska Omaha L 85-95 49%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -16.1 +4.5 -20.3
  Jan 04, 2025 125   St. Thomas L 80-88 28%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -8.3 +1.1 -9.2
  Jan 09, 2025 340   @ Denver W 95-70 59%     4 - 11 1 - 2 +16.2 +15.6 +0.3
  Jan 11, 2025 311   @ Oral Roberts L 79-83 47%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -9.8 +0.8 -10.7
  Jan 16, 2025 114   @ South Dakota St. L 73-109 13%     4 - 13 1 - 4 -30.3 -2.2 -26.0
  Jan 18, 2025 223   UMKC W 76-72 49%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -2.3 +9.3 -11.1
  Jan 23, 2025 268   South Dakota W 89-87 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 112   @ North Dakota St. L 74-86 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 114   South Dakota St. L 76-83 27%    
  Feb 06, 2025 222   @ Nebraska Omaha L 75-81 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 223   @ UMKC L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 13, 2025 340   Denver W 81-73 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 311   Oral Roberts W 84-79 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 112   North Dakota St. L 76-83 27%    
  Feb 27, 2025 125   @ St. Thomas L 75-87 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 268   @ South Dakota L 87-90 37%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.4 1.9 1.6 0.2 4.0 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 7.6 5.8 1.1 0.0 17.9 5th
6th 0.2 5.6 12.9 8.8 1.3 0.1 28.8 6th
7th 0.5 5.7 13.2 8.0 1.4 0.0 28.8 7th
8th 0.2 3.5 8.2 4.3 0.5 0.0 16.8 8th
9th 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.3 9th
Total 0.9 5.2 14.5 23.4 24.5 18.2 9.1 3.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
9-7 3.4% 5.6% 5.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.2
8-8 9.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 8.8
7-9 18.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 17.8
6-10 24.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 24.2
5-11 23.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 23.2
4-12 14.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 14.5
3-13 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.2
2-14 0.9% 0.9
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%